National average USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Net change: Trump +0.3
RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4% FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7% At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
Swing state averages Arizona: Biden +3.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: Biden +0.5
Florida: Biden +1.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +4.0)
Net change: Trump +2.3
Georgia: Biden +1.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6%
Last week: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9% (Biden +0.2)
Net change: Biden +1.1
Iowa: Biden +0.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0%
Last week: NA
Net change: NA
Michigan: Biden +7.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9%
Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2% (Biden +7.3)
Net change: Biden +0.2
Minnesota: Biden +7.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1% (Biden +9.3)
Net change: Trump +1.5
Nevada: Biden +5.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4%
Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.4)
Net change: Trump +0.5
North Carolina: Biden +2.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9%
Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5% (Biden +2.2)
Net change: Biden +0.7
Ohio: Trump +0.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4%
Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +0.7)
Net change: Trump +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5%
Last week: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +7.2)
Net change: Trump +1.7
Texas: Trump +2.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0%
Last week: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8% (Trump +3.0)
Net change: Biden +0.1
Wisconsin: Biden +6.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6% (Biden +6.3)
Net change: Biden +0.4
Trump on the trail: Donald Trump speaks in Nevada on his current political strategy - attacking Joe Biden
Senate races Alabama: Don't count Jones out?
Polling has been relatively sparse on the Senate race between Sen. Doug Jones, a Democrat who eked out a surprise special election victory in 2017, and former football coach Tommy Tuberville, but the three surveys conducted since the end of July have found Jones trailing by double-digits.
According to a FM3 Research poll released Friday, however, Jones is still showing signs of life. The survey found him leading Tuberville by 1 point, 48%-47%, among Alabama voters.
Maine: Collins down 7 points to Gideon in new poll
Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins continues to trail state House Speaker Sara Gideon, according to Pan Atlantic Research's Omnibus Poll which found Gideon up 47%-40%. Most polls for the past few months have Gideon with a slight lead and she is up by 4.2 points in the RCP polling average.
Montana: Signs of life for Bullock
After an Emerson College poll last week found Sen. Steve Daines leading former Gov. Steve Bullock 52%-43% among likely Montana voters, two polls this week indicated the race is virtually dead even.
A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Bullock and Daines tied among registered voters and a poll from Montana State University-Bozeman released Wednesday found Bullock leading Daines 49%-47%.
North Carolina: Can Cunningham survive texting scandal?
It remains to be seen how much political fallout Democrat Cal Cunningham will suffer after admitting he had sent texts of a sexual nature to a woman who is not his wife.
An Emerson College poll conducted since the scandal broke and released Thursday found Cunningham had slipped 5 points to a 45%-44% lead over Sen. Thom Tillis since its last poll on the race in September. But a Siena College/New York Times survey released Wednesday found Cunningham up 41%-37% over Tillis, just a 1-point slip for Cunningham from the month before.
A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday found Cunningham's lead had grown in the past month by between 1 and 5 points, depending on the level of turnout. Only 14% said the texts were disqualifying, while 51% said the issue was a private matter and 32% said the scandal called his character into question.
"North Carolinians may frown on Cunningham’s behavior but few think it has any bearing on his fitness for office," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
South Carolina: Graham pulling away from Harrison?
After several recent polls that found Sen. Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, a New York Times/Siena College poll on Thursday found the incumbent with a 46%-40% lead. It was the second survey to find Graham with a 6-point lead this week after a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday found him up 48%-42%.
Most minds are made up: Who's undecided? Donald Trump's toughest hurdle to pull off a win
Poll-pourri A Georgia peach of an outlier?
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Biden up 7 points among likely voters in Georgia, 51%-44%. Most other polls in the state have indicated a much tighter race, including one released the same day by SurveyUSA that found Biden up by 2 points, 48%-46%.
The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in an essential dead-heat in Ohio, with Biden at 48% among likely voters and Trump at 47%.
White Christian support for Trump slips
Though Trump still leads Biden in overall support among White Christians in the U.S., that support dropped by 8 points among White Catholics to 52%-44%; 6 points among White non-evangelical Protestants to 53%-43% and 5 points among White evangelicals to 78%-17%, according to a Pew Research Center poll.
The poll found Biden leading among all other religious groups surveyed, including Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews and the religiously unaffiliated.
More: Trump looks to rev up base in unlikely battleground of Georgia as polls show tight race with Biden
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】 : 标 题: 形势突然逆转，trump可能会赢！ : 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 19 14:44:15 2020, 美东) : : National average : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8) : : Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1) : : Net change: Trump +0.3 : : RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4% : FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7% : At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5 : : Swing state averages : Arizona: Biden +3.8 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5% : : Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2% (Biden +3.3) : : Net change: Biden +0.5 : : Florida: Biden +1.7 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0% : : Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +4.0) : : Net change: Trump +2.3 : : Georgia: Biden +1.3 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6% : : Last week: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9% (Biden +0.2) : : Net change: Biden +1.1 : : Iowa: Biden +0.8 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0% : : Last week: NA : : Net change: NA : : Michigan: Biden +7.5 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9% : : Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2% (Biden +7.3) : : Net change: Biden +0.2 : : Minnesota: Biden +7.8 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2% : : Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1% (Biden +9.3) : : Net change: Trump +1.5 : : Nevada: Biden +5.9 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4% : : Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.4) : : Net change: Trump +0.5 : : North Carolina: Biden +2.9 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9% : : Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5% (Biden +2.2) : : Net change: Biden +0.7 : : Ohio: Trump +0.3 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4% : : Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +0.7) : : Net change: Trump +1.0 : : Pennsylvania: Biden +5.5 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5% : : Last week: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +7.2) : : Net change: Trump +1.7 : : Texas: Trump +2.9 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0% : : Last week: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8% (Trump +3.0) : : Net change: Biden +0.1 : : Wisconsin: Biden +6.7 : : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8% : : Last week: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6% (Biden +6.3) : : Net change: Biden +0.4 : : Trump on the trail: Donald Trump speaks in Nevada on his current political : strategy - attacking Joe Biden : : Senate races : Alabama: Don't count Jones out? : : Polling has been relatively sparse on the Senate race between Sen. Doug : Jones, a Democrat who eked out a surprise special election victory in 2017, : and former football coach Tommy Tuberville, but the three surveys conducted : since the end of July have found Jones trailing by double-digits. : : According to a FM3 Research poll released Friday, however, Jones is still : showing signs of life. The survey found him leading Tuberville by 1 point, : 48%-47%, among Alabama voters. : : Maine: Collins down 7 points to Gideon in new poll : : Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins continues to trail state House Speaker Sara : Gideon, according to Pan Atlantic Research's Omnibus Poll which found Gideon : up 47%-40%. Most polls for the past few months have Gideon with a slight : lead and she is up by 4.2 points in the RCP polling average. : : Montana: Signs of life for Bullock : : After an Emerson College poll last week found Sen. Steve Daines leading : former Gov. Steve Bullock 52%-43% among likely Montana voters, two polls : this week indicated the race is virtually dead even. : : A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Bullock and Daines tied : among registered voters and a poll from Montana State University-Bozeman : released Wednesday found Bullock leading Daines 49%-47%. : : North Carolina: Can Cunningham survive texting scandal? : : It remains to be seen how much political fallout Democrat Cal Cunningham : will suffer after admitting he had sent texts of a sexual nature to a woman : who is not his wife. : : An Emerson College poll conducted since the scandal broke and released : Thursday found Cunningham had slipped 5 points to a 45%-44% lead over Sen. : Thom Tillis since its last poll on the race in September. But a Siena : College/New York Times survey released Wednesday found Cunningham up 41%- 37% : over Tillis, just a 1-point slip for Cunningham from the month before. : : A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday found Cunningham's lead had : grown in the past month by between 1 and 5 points, depending on the level of : turnout. Only 14% said the texts were disqualifying, while 51% said the : issue was a private matter and 32% said the scandal called his character : into question. : : "North Carolinians may frown on Cunningham’s behavior but few think it has : any bearing on his fitness for office," said Patrick Murray, director of the : Monmouth University Polling Institute. : : South Carolina: Graham pulling away from Harrison? : : After several recent polls that found Sen. Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie : with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, a New York Times/Siena : College poll on Thursday found the incumbent with a 46%-40% lead. It was the : second survey to find Graham with a 6-point lead this week after a Morning : Consult poll published Tuesday found him up 48%-42%. : : Most minds are made up: Who's undecided? Donald Trump's toughest hurdle to : pull off a win : : Poll-pourri : A Georgia peach of an outlier? : : A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Biden up 7 points among : likely voters in Georgia, 51%-44%. Most other polls in the state have : indicated a much tighter race, including one released the same day by : SurveyUSA that found Biden up by 2 points, 48%-46%. : : The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in an essential dead-heat in : Ohio, with Biden at 48% among likely voters and Trump at 47%. : : White Christian support for Trump slips : : Though Trump still leads Biden in overall support among White Christians in : the U.S., that support dropped by 8 points among White Catholics to 52%-44%; : 6 points among White non-evangelical Protestants to 53%-43% and 5 points : among White evangelicals to 78%-17%, according to a Pew Research Center poll : . : : The poll found Biden leading among all other religious groups surveyed, : including Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews and the religiously : unaffiliated. : : More: Trump looks to rev up base in unlikely battleground of Georgia as : polls show tight race with Biden : : : --
变化太快，太恐怖，太吓人了。一周前差距还是12%。现在突然缩小到全国平均只有9% ， 一个星期2%就没有了。 可national overage gap 9%， 扣除deep blue & deep red state 后， 剩下的那些所谓swing states, 差距竟然现在几乎都在5%的误差范围以内。
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】 : National average : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8) : Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1) : Net change: Trump +0.3 : RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4% : FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7% : At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5 : Swing state averages : Arizona: Biden +3.8 : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5% : ...................
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】 : National average : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8) : Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1) : Net change: Trump +0.3 : RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4% : FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7% : At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5 : Swing state averages : Arizona: Biden +3.8 : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5% : ...................
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】 : National average : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8) : Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1) : Net change: Trump +0.3 : RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4% : FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7% : At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5 : Swing state averages : Arizona: Biden +3.8 : USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5% : ...................
In 2016, Trump carried all 10 states where CNN Poll of Polls averages are being released Tuesday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. He is numerically ahead of Biden in the averages of current polling in just one of these states, Texas, where his support averages 49% to Biden's 45%.
The two candidates are dead even in the Poll of Polls average in Iowa (47% support each) and are nearly even in Georgia (47% Biden to 46% Trump), Ohio (48% Biden to 46% Trump) and North Carolina (48% Biden to 46% Trump).
The averages suggest a narrow tilt in Biden's favor in Arizona and in Florida; 49% support Biden and 45% Trump in Arizona, while in Florida, it is 48% Biden to 45% Trump.
在10 swing state 中，现在板凳稳定领先的只有 Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin 三个州。 但是，所有民调/polls 发布者同时指出，poll误差率都在4%以上。
Although it is not possible to assign a margin of sampling error to an average of polls, most of the polls included in these averages have individual margins of error of 4 points or higher.
Every poll included in the averages in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin finds Biden with a lead larger than the individual margin of sampling error for that poll.
另外， Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin 的选举人票分别是：20，16，10，板凳就是全赢了不过46张选票，关系并不大。
National average
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Net change: Trump +0.3
RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: Biden +0.5
Florida: Biden +1.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +4.0)
Net change: Trump +2.3
Georgia: Biden +1.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6%
Last week: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9% (Biden +0.2)
Net change: Biden +1.1
Iowa: Biden +0.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0%
Last week: NA
Net change: NA
Michigan: Biden +7.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9%
Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2% (Biden +7.3)
Net change: Biden +0.2
Minnesota: Biden +7.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2%
Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1% (Biden +9.3)
Net change: Trump +1.5
Nevada: Biden +5.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4%
Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.4)
Net change: Trump +0.5
North Carolina: Biden +2.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9%
Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5% (Biden +2.2)
Net change: Biden +0.7
Ohio: Trump +0.3
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4%
Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +0.7)
Net change: Trump +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden +5.5
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5%
Last week: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +7.2)
Net change: Trump +1.7
Texas: Trump +2.9
USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0%
Last week: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8% (Trump +3.0)
Net change: Biden +0.1
Wisconsin: Biden +6.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8%
Last week: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6% (Biden +6.3)
Net change: Biden +0.4
Trump on the trail: Donald Trump speaks in Nevada on his current political
strategy - attacking Joe Biden
Senate races
Alabama: Don't count Jones out?
Polling has been relatively sparse on the Senate race between Sen. Doug
Jones, a Democrat who eked out a surprise special election victory in 2017, and former football coach Tommy Tuberville, but the three surveys conducted since the end of July have found Jones trailing by double-digits.
According to a FM3 Research poll released Friday, however, Jones is still
showing signs of life. The survey found him leading Tuberville by 1 point,
48%-47%, among Alabama voters.
Maine: Collins down 7 points to Gideon in new poll
Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins continues to trail state House Speaker Sara
Gideon, according to Pan Atlantic Research's Omnibus Poll which found Gideon up 47%-40%. Most polls for the past few months have Gideon with a slight
lead and she is up by 4.2 points in the RCP polling average.
Montana: Signs of life for Bullock
After an Emerson College poll last week found Sen. Steve Daines leading
former Gov. Steve Bullock 52%-43% among likely Montana voters, two polls
this week indicated the race is virtually dead even.
A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Bullock and Daines tied among registered voters and a poll from Montana State University-Bozeman
released Wednesday found Bullock leading Daines 49%-47%.
North Carolina: Can Cunningham survive texting scandal?
It remains to be seen how much political fallout Democrat Cal Cunningham
will suffer after admitting he had sent texts of a sexual nature to a woman who is not his wife.
An Emerson College poll conducted since the scandal broke and released
Thursday found Cunningham had slipped 5 points to a 45%-44% lead over Sen.
Thom Tillis since its last poll on the race in September. But a Siena
College/New York Times survey released Wednesday found Cunningham up 41%-37% over Tillis, just a 1-point slip for Cunningham from the month before.
A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday found Cunningham's lead had
grown in the past month by between 1 and 5 points, depending on the level of turnout. Only 14% said the texts were disqualifying, while 51% said the
issue was a private matter and 32% said the scandal called his character
into question.
"North Carolinians may frown on Cunningham’s behavior but few think it has any bearing on his fitness for office," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
South Carolina: Graham pulling away from Harrison?
After several recent polls that found Sen. Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie
with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, a New York Times/Siena
College poll on Thursday found the incumbent with a 46%-40% lead. It was the second survey to find Graham with a 6-point lead this week after a Morning Consult poll published Tuesday found him up 48%-42%.
Most minds are made up: Who's undecided? Donald Trump's toughest hurdle to
pull off a win
Poll-pourri
A Georgia peach of an outlier?
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Biden up 7 points among likely voters in Georgia, 51%-44%. Most other polls in the state have
indicated a much tighter race, including one released the same day by
SurveyUSA that found Biden up by 2 points, 48%-46%.
The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in an essential dead-heat in Ohio, with Biden at 48% among likely voters and Trump at 47%.
White Christian support for Trump slips
Though Trump still leads Biden in overall support among White Christians in the U.S., that support dropped by 8 points among White Catholics to 52%-44%; 6 points among White non-evangelical Protestants to 53%-43% and 5 points
among White evangelicals to 78%-17%, according to a Pew Research Center poll.
The poll found Biden leading among all other religious groups surveyed,
including Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews and the religiously
unaffiliated.
More: Trump looks to rev up base in unlikely battleground of Georgia as
polls show tight race with Biden
这数据白等要大赢啊
川腊肉交牌算下庄不升级， 坚持打完连升3级？
盹盹盹
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: 形势突然逆转，trump可能会赢！
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 19 14:44:15 2020, 美东)
:
: National average
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
:
: Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
:
: Net change: Trump +0.3
:
: RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
: FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
: At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
:
: Swing state averages
: Arizona: Biden +3.8
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
:
: Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2% (Biden +3.3)
:
: Net change: Biden +0.5
:
: Florida: Biden +1.7
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0%
:
: Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +4.0)
:
: Net change: Trump +2.3
:
: Georgia: Biden +1.3
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.9%, Trump 46.6%
:
: Last week: Biden 47.1%, Trump 46.9% (Biden +0.2)
:
: Net change: Biden +1.1
:
: Iowa: Biden +0.8
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 47.8%, Trump 47.0%
:
: Last week: NA
:
: Net change: NA
:
: Michigan: Biden +7.5
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.4%, Trump 42.9%
:
: Last week: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.2% (Biden +7.3)
:
: Net change: Biden +0.2
:
: Minnesota: Biden +7.8
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.0%, Trump 41.2%
:
: Last week: Biden 50.4%, Trump 41.1% (Biden +9.3)
:
: Net change: Trump +1.5
:
: Nevada: Biden +5.9
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 43.4%
:
: Last week: Biden 50.2%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +6.4)
:
: Net change: Trump +0.5
:
: North Carolina: Biden +2.9
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.8%, Trump 45.9%
:
: Last week: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.5% (Biden +2.2)
:
: Net change: Biden +0.7
:
: Ohio: Trump +0.3
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 46.7%, Biden 46.4%
:
: Last week: Biden 47.0%, Trump 46.3% (Biden +0.7)
:
: Net change: Trump +1.0
:
: Pennsylvania: Biden +5.5
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.0%, Trump 44.5%
:
: Last week: Biden 51.0%, Trump 43.8% (Biden +7.2)
:
: Net change: Trump +1.7
:
: Texas: Trump +2.9
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Trump 48.9%, Biden 46.0%
:
: Last week: Trump 48.8%, Biden 45.8% (Trump +3.0)
:
: Net change: Biden +0.1
:
: Wisconsin: Biden +6.7
:
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 50.5%, Trump 43.8%
:
: Last week: Biden 49.9%, Trump 43.6% (Biden +6.3)
:
: Net change: Biden +0.4
:
: Trump on the trail: Donald Trump speaks in Nevada on his current political
: strategy - attacking Joe Biden
:
: Senate races
: Alabama: Don't count Jones out?
:
: Polling has been relatively sparse on the Senate race between Sen. Doug
: Jones, a Democrat who eked out a surprise special election victory in 2017,
: and former football coach Tommy Tuberville, but the three surveys
conducted
: since the end of July have found Jones trailing by double-digits.
:
: According to a FM3 Research poll released Friday, however, Jones is still : showing signs of life. The survey found him leading Tuberville by 1 point,
: 48%-47%, among Alabama voters.
:
: Maine: Collins down 7 points to Gideon in new poll
:
: Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins continues to trail state House Speaker Sara
: Gideon, according to Pan Atlantic Research's Omnibus Poll which found
Gideon
: up 47%-40%. Most polls for the past few months have Gideon with a slight : lead and she is up by 4.2 points in the RCP polling average.
:
: Montana: Signs of life for Bullock
:
: After an Emerson College poll last week found Sen. Steve Daines leading
: former Gov. Steve Bullock 52%-43% among likely Montana voters, two polls
: this week indicated the race is virtually dead even.
:
: A Public Policy Polling survey released Monday found Bullock and Daines
tied
: among registered voters and a poll from Montana State University-Bozeman : released Wednesday found Bullock leading Daines 49%-47%.
:
: North Carolina: Can Cunningham survive texting scandal?
:
: It remains to be seen how much political fallout Democrat Cal Cunningham
: will suffer after admitting he had sent texts of a sexual nature to a
woman
: who is not his wife.
:
: An Emerson College poll conducted since the scandal broke and released
: Thursday found Cunningham had slipped 5 points to a 45%-44% lead over Sen.
: Thom Tillis since its last poll on the race in September. But a Siena
: College/New York Times survey released Wednesday found Cunningham up 41%-
37%
: over Tillis, just a 1-point slip for Cunningham from the month before.
:
: A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday found Cunningham's lead had
: grown in the past month by between 1 and 5 points, depending on the level of
: turnout. Only 14% said the texts were disqualifying, while 51% said the
: issue was a private matter and 32% said the scandal called his character
: into question.
:
: "North Carolinians may frown on Cunningham’s behavior but few think it
has
: any bearing on his fitness for office," said Patrick Murray, director of
the
: Monmouth University Polling Institute.
:
: South Carolina: Graham pulling away from Harrison?
:
: After several recent polls that found Sen. Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie
: with his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, a New York Times/Siena
: College poll on Thursday found the incumbent with a 46%-40% lead. It was
the
: second survey to find Graham with a 6-point lead this week after a
Morning
: Consult poll published Tuesday found him up 48%-42%.
:
: Most minds are made up: Who's undecided? Donald Trump's toughest hurdle to
: pull off a win
:
: Poll-pourri
: A Georgia peach of an outlier?
:
: A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Biden up 7 points
among
: likely voters in Georgia, 51%-44%. Most other polls in the state have
: indicated a much tighter race, including one released the same day by
: SurveyUSA that found Biden up by 2 points, 48%-46%.
:
: The Quinnipiac poll also found Biden and Trump in an essential dead-heat
in
: Ohio, with Biden at 48% among likely voters and Trump at 47%.
:
: White Christian support for Trump slips
:
: Though Trump still leads Biden in overall support among White Christians
in
: the U.S., that support dropped by 8 points among White Catholics to 52%-44%;
: 6 points among White non-evangelical Protestants to 53%-43% and 5 points : among White evangelicals to 78%-17%, according to a Pew Research Center
poll
: .
:
: The poll found Biden leading among all other religious groups surveyed,
: including Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews and the religiously : unaffiliated.
:
: More: Trump looks to rev up base in unlikely battleground of Georgia as
: polls show tight race with Biden
:
:
: --
变化太快，太恐怖，太吓人了。一周前差距还是12%。现在突然缩小到全国平均只有9%
， 一个星期2%就没有了。 可national overage gap 9%， 扣除deep blue & deep red state 后， 剩下的那些所谓swing states, 差距竟然现在几乎都在5%的误差范围以内。
还有两周，弄不好trump可能再一次复制2016年的传奇！
大赢什么呀！ 全国平均9%， 比两周前差了3%， 决定命运的swing state 差距现在几
乎都在误差范围5%以内，比2016年的差距小多了。照这样子下去，2周后板凳是怎么输
的问题了。
【 在 NikkiGiovani (temp) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这数据白等要大赢啊
: 川腊肉交牌算下庄不升级， 坚持打完连升3级？
: 盹盹盹
: ,
: conducted
: Gideon
: tied
: woman
: 37%
: of
: ...................
你它妈是三叶虫的智商吧
差不多所有的摇摆州白等都领先
即使按你的说法5%一下属于预测误差范围， 那么起码
5%以下一半州的选举人票属于白等， 加上差距5%以上的摇摆州，
麻痹的白等不是大赢是啥？
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 大赢什么呀！ 全国平均9%， 比两周前差了3%， 决定命运的swing state 差距现在几
: 乎都在误差范围5%以内，比2016年的差距小多了。照这样子下去，2周后板凳是怎么输
: 的问题了。
川粉可能认为误差的5%，一定是对川普不利的方向，而且一定是5%。
【 在 NikkiGiovani (temp) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你它妈是三叶虫的智商吧
: 差不多所有的摇摆州白等都领先
: 即使按你的说法5%一下属于预测误差范围， 那么起码
: 5%以下一半州的选举人票属于白等， 加上差距5%以上的摇摆州，
: 麻痹的白等不是大赢是啥？
你他妈的懂个屁！ 你知道5%是你妈的逼！
【 在 NikkiGiovani (temp) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你它妈是三叶虫的智商吧
: 差不多所有的摇摆州白等都领先
: 即使按你的说法5%一下属于预测误差范围， 那么起码
: 5%以下一半州的选举人票属于白等， 加上差距5%以上的摇摆州，
: 麻痹的白等不是大赢是啥？
你麻痹确定看懂了么
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: National average
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
: Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
: Net change: Trump +0.3
: RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
: FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
: At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
: Swing state averages
: Arizona: Biden +3.8
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
: ...................
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
形势突然逆转，楼主不吃屎了
你能看懂你妈的逼！
【 在 vandieman (生物千老 cell stem cell 一作) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你麻痹确定看懂了么
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
不出我所料。形势越来越对川普有利。
五毛与左B如同死了气爹
你们这帮翻墙五毛和弱智混蛋的最大问题，就是傻逼！ 屁都不懂却只会三呼万岁，自
我认定，自我陶醉，自以为是的自我欢呼胜利。
你们其实屁都不是，球都不懂，鸡巴毛都不如，活脱脱的傻逼而已。
只要想想现在支持他的人比2016多还是少，他2016多少州是险胜就知道他死定了。如果美国开赌，多少人会把家产压到白灯吧？
美国选举经常是些许之间， 很少有巨大差距。
2016年，trump 在万念俱灭中，奇迹般的赢了选举人票。投票前，很多poll都认为，
Hillary 不需要跑，悠哉游哉的走到白宫就行了，全美国和其支持者一切都在准备欢呼胜利。结果呢？ 输了！
今年的情况更复杂，挑起的那种族对立，让白人和有色人种站队。 就好比台湾民进党
搞得外省人选外省人，本省人选本省人一样。 人数比例悬殊，决定了外省人怎么选都是输。
一样，今年trump的这种搞法，逼人站队，弄不好再给你重复一次2016年的故事，一点
都不是奇怪的事。
【 在 Thirdhorizon (750卖脸) 的大作中提到: 】
: 只要想想现在支持他的人比2016多还是少，他2016多少州是险胜就知道他死定了。如果
: 美国开赌，多少人会把家产压到白灯吧？
大花逼，你个轮宣部临时培训的大傻逼就别来现眼了
对于叔这种亲历2016投票的老蓝皮，
16年最后两个星期全国的民调老婊子才领先4%
摇摆州在2%左右
沉默的大多数都选了川腊肉
笑死叔了， 一个轮宣部的临时工，也装模作样谈起20016年大选啊了
lol
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: Re: 形势突然逆转，trump可能会赢！
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 19 19:50:33 2020, 美东)
:
: 美国选举经常是些许之间， 很少有巨大差距。
:
: 2016年，trump 在万念俱灭中，奇迹般的赢了选举人票。投票前，很多poll都认为，: Hillary 不需要跑，悠哉游哉的走到白宫就行了，全美国和其支持者一切都在准备欢呼
: 胜利。结果呢？ 输了！
:
: 今年的情况更复杂，挑起的那种族对立，让白人和有色人种站队。 就好比台湾民进党
: 搞得外省人选外省人，本省人选本省人一样。 人数比例悬殊，决定了外省人怎么选都
: 是输。
:
: 一样，今年trump的这种搞法，逼人站队，弄不好再给你重复一次2016年的故事，一点
: 都不是奇怪的事。
:
:
:
: 【 在 Thirdhorizon (750卖脸) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 只要想想现在支持他的人比2016多还是少，他2016多少州是险胜就知道他死定了。如果
: : 美国开赌，多少人会把家产压到白灯吧？
:
:
:
: --
别扯蛋了！
2016年别说最好两个星期，就是选举前和选举当天的exit poll， all was indicating that Hillary will win a BiG!
另外，我告诉你，在统计学上， 5% 以内的数字几乎不作为决策的参考数据，因为它在5%的误差范围以内。 所以，现在说板凳poll 赢了5%也好， 1.3%， 1.7%什么的，就断定板凳会赢，那几乎和放屁无异。
【 在 NikkiGiovani (temp) 的大作中提到: 】
: 大花逼，你个轮宣部临时培训的大傻逼就别来现眼了
: 对于叔这种亲历2016投票的老蓝皮，
: 16年最后两个星期全国的民调老婊子才领先4%
: 摇摆州在2%左右
: 沉默的大多数都选了川腊肉
: 笑死叔了， 一个轮宣部的临时工，也装模作样谈起20016年大选啊了
: lol
: 如果
你们轮宣部别说你这种临时工就是长期的五毛，
都是一屁三谎
比如这句exit poll都说明老婊子 win big
哈哈哈
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: Re: 形势突然逆转，trump可能会赢！
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 19 20:04:58 2020, 美东)
:
: 别扯蛋了！
:
: 2016年别说最好两个星期，就是选举前和选举当天的exit poll， all indicated
that
: Hillary will win a BiG!
:
: 另外，我告诉你，在统计学上， 5% 以内的数字几乎不作为决策的参考数据，因为它在
: 5%的误差范围以内。 所以，现在说板凳poll 赢了5%也好， 1.3%， 1.7%什么的，就断
: 定板凳会赢，那几乎和放屁无异。
:
:
:
: 【 在 NikkiGiovani (temp) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 大花逼，你个轮宣部临时培训的大傻逼就别来现眼了
: : 对于叔这种亲历2016投票的老蓝皮，
: : 16年最后两个星期全国的民调老婊子才领先4%
: : 摇摆州在2%左右
: : 沉默的大多数都选了川腊肉
: : 笑死叔了， 一个轮宣部的临时工，也装模作样谈起20016年大选啊了
: : lol
: : 如果
:
:
:
: --
卧槽 大花逼你一屁三谎，所以同样的东西发三次？
lol
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: Re: 形势突然逆转，trump可能会赢！
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 19 20:06:31 2020, 美东)
:
: 别扯蛋了！
:
: 2016年别说最好两个星期，就是选举前和选举当天的exit poll， all was
indicating
: that Hillary will win a BiG!
:
: 另外，我告诉你，在统计学上， 5% 以内的数字几乎不作为决策的参考数据，因为它在
: 5%的误差范围以内。 所以，现在说板凳poll 赢了5%也好， 1.3%， 1.7%什么的，就断
: 定板凳会赢，那几乎和放屁无异。
:
:
: 【 在 NikkiGiovani (temp) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 大花逼，你个轮宣部临时培训的大傻逼就别来现眼了
: : 对于叔这种亲历2016投票的老蓝皮，
: : 16年最后两个星期全国的民调老婊子才领先4%
: : 摇摆州在2%左右
: : 沉默的大多数都选了川腊肉
: : 笑死叔了， 一个轮宣部的临时工，也装模作样谈起20016年大选啊了
: : lol
: : 如果
:
:
:
: --
选举前的poll非常接近了，这个破网站没法贴图，你自己去查一下
以MI为例， 川普从10月17号开始民调疯涨，10/17落后11个点，11/7号涨到只落后3.5
个点（在误差范围之内），而且Trafalgar Group的poll在11/6号的结果是川普领先2个点，最后结果是川普赢了0.3个点
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
什么hillary要win big，那是fake news的大忽悠，你要研究大选就得盯着摇摆州一个
州一个州的去看民调，只看新闻的都被fake news忽悠瘸了
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 别扯蛋了！
: 2016年别说最好两个星期，就是选举前和选举当天的exit poll， all was
indicating
: that Hillary will win a BiG!
: 另外，我告诉你，在统计学上， 5% 以内的数字几乎不作为决策的参考数据，因为它在
: 5%的误差范围以内。 所以，现在说板凳poll 赢了5%也好， 1.3%， 1.7%什么的，就断
: 定板凳会赢，那几乎和放屁无异。
按照川粉的观点， 床总统形式一片大好。 逆转岂不是要让睡登赢？
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: National average
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
: Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
: Net change: Trump +0.3
: RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
: FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
: At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
: Swing state averages
: Arizona: Biden +3.8
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
: ...................
Florida, ohio 是swing 州选举人票的大票仓，谁赢了，谁就赢了。 当年小布什如此
，后来的trump也是如此。
现在 florida 被trump 追平， ohio 反超，局势已经开始明朗了。 还有两个星期，
板凳在守，trump在斗， 局势明显不利于板凳。
Florida, ohio 是swing 州选举人票的大票仓，谁赢了，谁就赢了。 当年小布什如此
，后来的trump也是如此。
现在 florida 被trump 追平， ohio 反超，局势已经开始明朗了。 还有两个星期，
板凳在守，trump在斗， 局势明显不利于板凳。
川普的铁票人群都不是那些特别喜欢激动夸夸其谈的人，估计都没啥兴趣参加民调。
4年前我就领教过了。并且这次在推特上也看到不少自称“沉默的大多数”支持他的，
这些人一个共同特点就是发言不多，也不瞎激动。
这次的拜登粉在推特上骂骂咧咧，很可能把不少举棋未定的推向川普，我已经看到有抱怨的，那个人本来是要投拜登的，发帖说非常疑惑为啥支持拜登的每天都在骂人而支持川普的平和得多。
拜登粉真的特别rude,而且在人家推特下一发就是一堆，感觉太情绪化了。
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 大赢什么呀！ 全国平均9%， 比两周前差了3%， 决定命运的swing state 差距现在几
: 乎都在误差范围5%以内，比2016年的差距小多了。照这样子下去，2周后板凳是怎么输
: 的问题了。
就一个简单问题，如果心底里支持那个Wisconsin 17岁的人，到底会选谁？
【 在 mynight01 (一束星光) 的大作中提到: 】
: 川普的铁票人群都不是那些特别喜欢激动夸夸其谈的人，估计都没啥兴趣参加民调。: 4年前我就领教过了。并且这次在推特上也看到不少自称“沉默的大多数”支持他的，
: 这些人一个共同特点就是发言不多，也不瞎激动。
: 这次的拜登粉在推特上骂骂咧咧，很可能把不少举棋未定的推向川普，我已经看到有抱
: 怨的，那个人本来是要投拜登的，发帖说非常疑惑为啥支持拜登的每天都在骂人而支持
: 川普的平和得多。
: 拜登粉真的特别rude,而且在人家推特下一发就是一堆，感觉太情绪化了。
刚刚博彩买了100注巨巨win, LOL
一个简单的问题，如果心底里支持那个Wisconsin 17岁少年杀了黑人的人，到底会选谁？ 如果支持trump， 会大声告诉社会和poll说因此而投Truman嘛？
如果这些人仅仅只有1%，那输赢是不是就已经有答案了？
【 在 mynight01 (一束星光) 的大作中提到: 】
: 川普的铁票人群都不是那些特别喜欢激动夸夸其谈的人，估计都没啥兴趣参加民调。: 4年前我就领教过了。并且这次在推特上也看到不少自称“沉默的大多数”支持他的，
: 这些人一个共同特点就是发言不多，也不瞎激动。
: 这次的拜登粉在推特上骂骂咧咧，很可能把不少举棋未定的推向川普，我已经看到有抱
: 怨的，那个人本来是要投拜登的，发帖说非常疑惑为啥支持拜登的每天都在骂人而支持
: 川普的平和得多。
: 拜登粉真的特别rude,而且在人家推特下一发就是一堆，感觉太情绪化了。
给个网站链接吧
【 在 arthury (灌完水记得要删贴) 的大作中提到: 】
: 刚刚博彩买了100注巨巨win, LOL
这两个州老白都输的起，反而老床输不起，别说还有一个落后，怎么可能有利
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: Florida, ohio 是swing 州选举人票的大票仓，谁赢了，谁就赢了。 当年小布什如此
: ，后来的trump也是如此。
:
: 现在 florida 被trump 追平， ohio 反超，局势已经开始明朗了。 还有两个星期，
: 板凳在守，trump在斗， 局势明显不利于板凳。
支持川普一直是政治不正确的事情，所以很多人根本不会去表达。
比如给那个警察捐出100万保释金的，用脚想都知道会投谁，但是这些人绝对不会站到
公众面前。
所以我根本不会去猜谁能赢，因为猜就是猜，我也不知道那些不吭声的人在想啥。
我想对于普通白人，他们关心工作机会，社区安全，law and order, 远远大于关心BLM和气候问题吧。
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 就一个简单问题，如果心底里支持那个Wisconsin 17岁的人，到底会选谁？
川普赢，白等赢，是美国人的事，与tm五毛何干？
川普也不是你爷爷，白等又不是泥外公，滚tm一边去
瞎扯！ 要不你去研究，要当总统，这两个州你必须赢。 远的不说，当年，小布什就是靠打官司赢了Florida，才当上总统。而小布什他爹就是输了Florida才被Clinton 碾压而只做了4年。 欧巴马当上总统也没有绕过这两个州，Hillary输了总统也就是因为输
了这两个州。
每次几乎都一样，两个星期后得结果也不会例外。 要不，ny 的布鲁明各为啥很砸300 million， 看好了，是300 million 为板凳在Florida 打江山， 你以外他真的是傻逼？
【 在 yeyewuyu (stone) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这两个州老白都输的起，反而老床输不起，别说还有一个落后，怎么可能有利
老白270不需要这两个州，很简单的计算。历史又不是必须的。共和党的基本盘就是不
行，有什么不能承认的。现在很担心民主党赢了参议院。
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 瞎扯！ 要不你去研究，要当总统，这两个州你必须赢。 远的不说，当年，小布什就是
: 靠打官司赢了Florida，才当上总统。而小布什他爹就是输了Florida才被Clinton 碾压
: 而只做了4年。 欧巴马当上总统也没有绕过这两个州，Hillary输了总统也就是因为输
: 了这两个州。
:
: 每次几乎都一样，两个星期后得结果也不会例外。 要不，ny 的布鲁明各为啥很砸
300
: million， 看好了，是300 million 为板凳在Florida 打江山， 你以外他真的是傻
逼？
:
:
:
:
:
: 【 在 yeyewuyu (stone) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 这两个州老白都输的起，反而老床输不起，别说还有一个落后，怎么可能有利
这次选举最操蛋的结果就是川胖连任 猪党控制参院
【 在 yeyewuyu (stone) 的大作中提到: 】
: 老白270不需要这两个州，很简单的计算。历史又不是必须的。共和党的基本盘就是不
: 行，有什么不能承认的。现在很担心民主党赢了参议院。
: 300
: 逼？
【 在 powerofdream (powerofdream) 的大作中提到: 】
: 给个网站链接吧
叔同样有这个担心
叔觉得这是大概率事件， 狗屁党会因为川腊肉这个巨大的负资产丢掉参院多数
猪党形成一党独裁
【 在 yeyewuyu (stone) 的大作中提到: 】
: 老白270不需要这两个州，很简单的计算。历史又不是必须的。共和党的基本盘就是不
: 行，有什么不能承认的。现在很担心民主党赢了参议院。
: 300
: 逼？
熟食！
好在前者不会发生
可惜后者大概率发生， 狗屁党被川腊肉拖下水了
【 在 baal (白日梦) 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: Re: 形势突然逆转，trump可能会赢！
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Oct 19 22:15:58 2020, 美东)
:
: 这次选举最操蛋的结果就是川胖连任 猪党控制参院
:
: 【 在 yeyewuyu (stone) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 老白270不需要这两个州，很简单的计算。历史又不是必须的。共和党的基本盘就
是不
: : 行，有什么不能承认的。现在很担心民主党赢了参议院。
: : 300
: : 逼？
:
:
:
:
: --
: ☆ 发自 iPhone 买买提 1.24.11
: --
你这是被谁给忽悠瘸了？
老老实实去研究下Electoral Map先，瞌睡乔丢了FI OH一样可以到270
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: Florida, ohio 是swing 州选举人票的大票仓，谁赢了，谁就赢了。 当年小布什如此
: ，后来的trump也是如此。
: 现在 florida 被trump 追平， ohio 反超，局势已经开始明朗了。 还有两个星期，
: 板凳在守，trump在斗， 局势明显不利于板凳。
Florida, Ohio 今年对拜登不重要，宾州是关键。密州，威州川普己经沒戏了。
五矛开始发慌了？川普肯定赢。
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: National average
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
: Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
: Net change: Trump +0.3
: RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
: FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
: At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
: Swing state averages
: Arizona: Biden +3.8
: USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
: ...................
猪脑子
【 在 dHb () 的大作中提到: 】
: 瞎扯！ 要不你去研究，要当总统，这两个州你必须赢。 远的不说，当年，小布什就是
: 靠打官司赢了Florida，才当上总统。而小布什他爹就是输了Florida才被Clinton 碾压
: 而只做了4年。 欧巴马当上总统也没有绕过这两个州，Hillary输了总统也就是因为输
: 了这两个州。
:
: 每次几乎都一样，两个星期后得结果也不会例外。 要不，ny 的布鲁明各为啥很砸
300
: million， 看好了，是300 million 为板凳在Florida 打江山， 你以外他真的是傻
逼？
:
:
:
:
:
: 【 在 yeyewuyu (stone) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 这两个州老白都输的起，反而老床输不起，别说还有一个落后，怎么可能有利
明白人
【 在 baal (白日梦) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这次选举最操蛋的结果就是川胖连任 猪党控制参院
决定大选胜负的有10 swing states/battleground states.共有179张选举人票。 现在有7个周基本打平，但其中拥有38张选举人票的texas，现在是trump 领先。从情势判断，板凳压根没戏，所以也不去竞选。而拥有29张选票的Florida， 除了cnn的poll 板凳领先3%外，其他poll的margin几乎被trump追平。如果板凳输了这两个州的共计67张选
票，再加上ohio的18张选票后，决定总统的85这张选票，就足以把板凳送回老家。
In 2016, Trump carried all 10 states where CNN Poll of Polls averages are
being released Tuesday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North
Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. He is numerically ahead
of Biden in the averages of current polling in just one of these states,
Texas, where his support averages 49% to Biden's 45%.
The two candidates are dead even in the Poll of Polls average in Iowa (47%
support each) and are nearly even in Georgia (47% Biden to 46% Trump), Ohio (48% Biden to 46% Trump) and North Carolina (48% Biden to 46% Trump).
The averages suggest a narrow tilt in Biden's favor in Arizona and in
Florida; 49% support Biden and 45% Trump in Arizona, while in Florida, it is 48% Biden to 45% Trump.
板凳 船破 选举人票数
Iowa: 47 ： 47 6
Georgia: 47 ： 46 16
Ohio： 48 ： 46 18
N Carolina: 48 ： 46 15
Texas： 45 ： 49 38
Arizona： 49 ： 45 11
Florida： 48 ： 45 29
在10 swing state 中，现在板凳稳定领先的只有 Pennsylvania, Michigan and
Wisconsin 三个州。 但是，所有民调/polls 发布者同时指出，poll误差率都在4%以上。
Although it is not possible to assign a margin of sampling error to an
average of polls, most of the polls included in these averages have
individual margins of error of 4 points or higher.
Every poll included in the averages in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin finds Biden with a lead larger than the individual margin of sampling error for that poll.
另外， Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin 的选举人票分别是：20，16，10，板凳就是全赢了不过46张选票，关系并不大。
而trump如果赢了Texas， Florida， ohio 三个州后，就有85张选票。差了整整40张。剩下的Iowa 6张， Georgia 16张，Arizona 11张， 33张选票即便全给了板凳，trump
还是赢7张。但遗憾的是，这三个州现在基本都是持平的。
所以啊，板凳粉儿们，别高兴得太早，更何况，还有两周，一切都在变化中，江山尚在未定之天！
我告诉你们这帮傻逼， 2016年hillary就是你们这么给喊输的！