Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus type.
这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 ，但不是主流。
Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.
第二段说的是美澳有很多A类病毒，而那些在武汉居住过的美国人里发现A类的变种。
文章后面关于A和B关系的解释： Variant ‘A’, most closely related to the virus found in both bats and pangolins, is described as “the root of the outbreak” by researchers. Type ‘B’ is derived from ‘A’, separated by two mutations, then ‘C’ is in turn a “daughter” of ‘B’.
Researchers say the localisation of the ‘B’ variant to East Asia could result from a “founder effect”: a genetic bottleneck that occurs when, in the case of a virus, a new type is established from a small, isolated group of infections.
Wuhan’s major virus type, ‘B’, was prevalent in patients from across East Asia. However, the variant didn’t travel much beyond the region without further mutations – implying a "founder event" in Wuhan, or “resistance” against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.
In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia. The network faithfully traces routes of infections for documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.
SARS-CoV-2 evolutionsubtypeancestral type The search for human origins seemed to take a step forward with the publication of the global human mitochondrial DNA tree (1). It soon turned out, however, that the tree-building method did not facilitate an unambiguous interpretation of the data. This motivated the development, in the early 1990s, of phylogenetic network methods which are capable of enabling the visualization of a multitude of optimal trees (2, 3). This network approach, based on mitochondrial and Y chromosomal data, allowed us to reconstruct the prehistoric population movements which colonized the planet (4, 5). The phylogenetic network approach from 2003 onward then found application in the reconstruction of language prehistory (6). It is now timely to apply the phylogenetic network approach to virological data to explore how this method can contribute to an understanding of coronavirus evolution.
In early March 2020, the GISAID database (https://www.gisaid.org/) contained a compilation of 253 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) complete and partial genomes contributed by clinicians and researchers from across the world since December 2019. To understand the evolution of this virus within humans, and to assist in tracing infection pathways and designing preventive strategies, we here present a phylogenetic network of 160 largely complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Download figure Open in new tab Download powerpoint Fig. 1. Phylogenetic network of 160 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Node A is the root cluster obtained with the bat (R. affinis) coronavirus isolate BatCoVRaTG13 from Yunnan Province. Circle areas are proportional to the number of taxa, and each notch on the links represents a mutated nucleotide position. The sequence range under consideration is 56 to 29,797, with nucleotide position (np) numbering according to the Wuhan 1 reference sequence (8). The median-joining network algorithm (2) and the Steiner algorithm (9) were used, both implemented in the software package Network5011CS (https://www.fluxus- engineering.com/), with the parameter epsilon set to zero, generating this network containing 288 most-parsimonious trees of length 229 mutations. The reticulations are mainly caused by recurrent mutations at np11083. The 161 taxa (160 human viruses and one bat virus) yield 101 distinct genomic sequences. The phylogenetic diagram is available for detailed scrutiny in A0 poster format (SI Appendix, Fig. S5) and in the free Network download files.
Zhou et al. (7) recently reported a closely related bat coronavirus, with 96.2% sequence similarity to the human virus. We use this bat virus as an outgroup, resulting in the root of the network being placed in a cluster of lineages which we have labeled “A.” Overall, the network, as expected in an ongoing outbreak, shows ancestral viral genomes existing alongside their newly mutated daughter genomes.
There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (from the southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes five individuals from Wuhan, two of which are represented in the ancestral node, and eight other East Asians from China and adjacent countries. It is noteworthy that nearly half (15/33) of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.
Two derived network nodes are striking in terms of the number of individuals included in the nodal type and in mutational branches radiating from these nodes. We have labeled these phylogenetic clusters B and C.
For type B, all but 19 of the 93 type B genomes were sampled in Wuhan (n = 22), in other parts of eastern China (n = 31), and, sporadically, in adjacent Asian countries (n = 21). Outside of East Asia, 10 B-types were found in viral genomes from the United States and Canada, one in Mexico, four in France, two in Germany, and one each in Italy and Australia. Node B is derived from A by two mutations: the synonymous mutation T8782C and the nonsynonymous mutation C28144T changing a leucine to a serine. Cluster B is striking with regard to mutational branch lengths: While the ancestral B type is monopolized (26/26 genomes) by East Asians, every single (19/19) B- type genome outside of Asia has evolved mutations. This phenomenon does not appear to be due to the month-long time lag and concomitant mutation rate acting on the viral genome before it spread outside of China (Dataset S1, Supplementary Table 2). A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia.
Type C differs from its parent type B by the nonsynonymous mutation G26144T which changes a glycine to a valine. In the dataset, this is the major European type (n = 11), with representatives in France, Italy, Sweden, and England, and in California and Brazil. It is absent in the mainland Chinese sample, but evident in Singapore (n = 5) and also found in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.
One practical application of the phylogenetic network is to reconstruct infection paths where they are unknown and pose a public health risk. The following cases where the infection history is well documented may serve as illustrations (SI Appendix). On 25 February 2020, the first Brazilian was reported to have been infected following a visit to Italy, and the network algorithm reflects this with a mutational link between an Italian and his Brazilian viral genome in cluster C (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). In another case, a man from Ontario had traveled from Wuhan in central China to Guangdong in southern China and then returned to Canada, where he fell ill and was conclusively diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on 27 January 2020. In the phylogenetic network (SI Appendix, Fig. S2), his virus genome branches from a reconstructed ancestral node, with derived virus variants in Foshan and Shenzhen (both in Guangdong province), in agreement with his travel history. His virus genome now coexists with those of other infected North Americans (one Canadian and two Californians) who evidently share a common viral genealogy. The case of the single Mexican viral genome in the network is a documented infection diagnosed on 28 February 2020 in a Mexican traveler to Italy. Not only does the network confirm the Italian origin of the Mexican virus (SI Appendix, Fig. S3), but it also implies that this Italian virus derives from the first documented German infection on 27 January 2020 in an employee working for the Webasto company in Munich, who, in turn, had contracted the infection from a Chinese colleague in Shanghai who had received a visit by her parents from Wuhan. This viral journey from Wuhan to Mexico, lasting a month, is documented by 10 mutations in the phylogenetic network.
This viral network is a snapshot of the early stages of an epidemic before the phylogeny becomes obscured by subsequent migration and mutation. The question may be asked whether the rooting of the viral evolution can be achieved at this early stage by using the oldest available sampled genome as a root. As SI Appendix, Fig. S4 shows, however, the first virus genome that was sampled on 24 December 2019 already is distant from the root type according to the bat coronavirus outgroup rooting.
The described core mutations have been confirmed by a variety of contributing laboratories and sequencing platforms and can be considered reliable. The phylogeographic patterns in the network are potentially affected by distinctive migratory histories, founder events, and sample size. Nevertheless, it would be prudent to consider the possibility that mutational variants might modulate the clinical presentation and spread of the disease. The phylogenetic classification provided here may be used to rule out or confirm such effects when evaluating clinical and epidemiological outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and when designing treatment and, eventually, vaccines.
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
A是起源，四个广东人携带病毒A的一个subclass，然后三个日本人和两个在武汉的美国人 有变异了的A。第二个subclass of A 起源于两个武汉人。看abstract的感觉是广东人 和武汉人最早携带A原始病毒。
There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (fromthe southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes five individuals from Wuhan, two of which are represented in the ancestral node, and eight other East Asians from China and adjacent countries. It is noteworthy that nearly half (15/33) of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.
【 在 TheMatrix (TheMatrix) 的大作中提到: 】 : A类在美国已经有严重致病性了吗？还是经过武汉变为B，再经过意大利变为C，再传回 : 美国的C类才具有严重致病性？ : was : the
Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – waspresent in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus type.
Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.
变异版本的A病毒是在居住在武汉的美国人中发现的，并且大量的A类型病毒在美国和澳大利亚被发现。
Wuhan’s major virus type, ‘B’, was prevalent in patients from across EastAsia. However, the variant didn’t travel much beyond the region without further mutations – implying a "founder event" in Wuhan, or “resistance” against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.
The founder effect is a case of genetic drift caused by a small population with limited numbers of individuals breaking away from a parent population. The occurrence of retinitis pigmentosa in the British colony on the Tristan da Cunha islands is an example of the founder effect. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/奠基者效应
The ‘C’ variant is the major European type, found in early patients from France, Italy, Sweden and England. It is absent from the study’s Chinese mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.
【 在 christina200 (na) 的大作中提到: 】 : A是起源，四个广东人携带病毒A的一个subclass，然后三个日本人和两个在武汉的美国人 : 有变异了的A。第二个subclass of A 起源于两个武汉人。看abstract的感觉是广东人 : 和武汉人最早携带A原始病毒。 : There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous : mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals ( from : the southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral : genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a: number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a : history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C- : allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes : ...................
【 在 cllearjks (cllearjks) 的大作中提到: 】 : 剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。 : https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis- : provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0 : 武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有； : 而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒 : 美国澳洲主要为A病毒； : 欧洲主要为C病毒。 : 病毒变异：A到B，B到C : Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : ...................
难怪别人会联想 【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
你把surprisingly 翻译故意去掉，意思大变。 这里恐怕应该译成“卧槽，这个A党性不可思议，虽然最早出现在武汉，居然死活不肯 在武汉流行”。 你的翻译，因为屁股歪了，没有突出”拍案惊奇”的暧昧和高潮感。 【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
reference 7得nature 说明了是云南得蝙蝠，gre满分架不住屁股歪，对证据视而不见 【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
根据论文的Fig 1和SI里面的数据，并没有“A类的变异类型”这种说法，呵呵 【 在 cllearjks (cllearjks) 的大作中提到: 】 : 剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。 : https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis- : provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0 : 武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有； : 而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒 : 美国澳洲主要为A病毒； : 欧洲主要为C病毒。 : 病毒变异：A到B，B到C : Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : ...................
Supplementary Table 2b. Phylogenetic cluster assignment of of viral genome variants. Note: Sorted by date
Type subtype GISAID genome label GISAID Accession ID Collection date B derived 4 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-01/2019 EPI_ISL_402123 2019/12/24 B derived 48 BetaCov/Wuhan/WH01/2019 EPI_ISL_406798 2019/12/26 B ancestral 1 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-01/2019 EPI_ISL_402119 2019/12/30 B derived 10 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV05/2019 EPI_ISL_402128 2019/12/30 B ancestral 11 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV06/2019 EPI_ISL_402129 2019/12/ 30 B derived 12 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV07/2019 EPI_ISL_402130 2019/12/30 B derived 19 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-03/2019 EPI_ISL_403930 2019/12/30 B derived 2 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-05/2019 EPI_ISL_402121 2019/12/30 B derived 20 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-01/2019 EPI_ISL_402132 2019/12/30 B derived 250 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-02/2019 EPI_ISL_412898 2019/12/30 B ancestral 251 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-03/2019 EPI_ISL_412899 2019/12/30 B ancestral 5 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV04/2019 EPI_ISL_402124 2019/12/30 B derived 82 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-02/2019 EPI_ISL_403931 2019/12/30 B ancestral 83 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-04/2019 EPI_ISL_403929 2019/12/30 B derived 9 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV02/2019 EPI_ISL_402127 2019/12/30 B ancestral 110 BetaCov/Wuhan-Hu-1/2019 EPI_ISL_402125 2019/12/ 31 B derived 3 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-04/2020 EPI_ISL_402120 2020/1/ 1 B ancestral 49 BetaCov/Wuhan/WH03/2020 EPI_ISL_406800 2020/1/1 B ancestral 75 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-envF13-20/2020 EPI_ISL_408514 2020/1/1 B derived 76 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-envF13-21/2020 EPI_ISL_408515 2020/1/1 B derived 84 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-05/2020 EPI_ISL_403928 2020/1/1 B ancestral 46 BetaCov/China/WHU01/2020 EPI_ISL_406716 2020/1/2 B ancestral 47 BetaCov/China/WHU02/2020 EPI_ISL_406717 2020/1/2 A 29095C 50 BetaCov/Wuhan/WH04/2020 EPI_ISL_406801 2020/1/5 B derived 176 BetaCov/China/WH-09/2020 EPI_ISL_411957 2020/1/8 B derived 224 BetaCov/Jingzhou/HBCDC-HB-01/2020 EPI_ISL_412459 2020/1/8 B ancestral 7 BetaCov/Nonthaburi/61/2020 EPI_ISL_403962 2020/1/8 A 29095T 28 BetaCov/Shenzhen/HKU-SZ-002/2020 EPI_ISL_406030 2020/1/10 A 29095T 27 BetaCov/Shenzhen/HKU-SZ-005/2020 EPI_ISL_405839 2020/1/11 B derived 72 BetaCov/Jiangxi/IVDC-JX-002/2020 EPI_ISL_408486 2020/1/11 B derived 111 BetaCov/Nepal/61/2020 EPI_ISL_410301 2020/1/13 A 29095T 40 BetaCov/Shenzhen/SZTH-002/2020 EPI_ISL_406593 2020/1/13 B ancestral 8 BetaCov/Nonthaburi/74/2020 EPI_ISL_403963 2020/1/ 13 A 29095T 13 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF012/2020 EPI_ISL_403932 2020/1/14 A 29095T 14 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF013/2020 EPI_ISL_403933 2020/1/15 B derived 15 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF014/2020 EPI_ISL_403934 2020/1/15 A 29095T 16 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF025/2020 EPI_ISL_403935 2020/1/15 A 29095C 71 BetaCov/Sichuan/IVDC-SC-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408484 2020/1/15 B derived 21 BetaCov/Zhejiang/WZ-01/2020 EPI_ISL_404227 2020/1/ 16 B derived 41 BetaCov/Shenzhen/SZTH-003/2020 EPI_ISL_406594 2020/1/16 B derived 86 BetaCov/Shenzhen/SZTH-004/2020 EPI_ISL_406595 2020/1/16 B derived 17 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF028/2020 EPI_ISL_403936 2020/1/17 B ancestral 22 BetaCov/Zhejiang/WZ-02/2020 EPI_ISL_404228 2020/1/17 B ancestral 23 BetaCov/Zhejiang/WZ-02/2020 EPI_ISL_404228 2020/1/17 A 29095C 266 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-02/2020 EPI_ISL_412978 2020/1/17 A 29095C 68 BetaCov/Yu--an/IVDC-YN-003/2020 EPI_ISL_408480 2020/1/17 B derived 18 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF040/2020 EPI_ISL_403937 2020/1/18 A 29095C 267 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-03/2020 EPI_ISL_412979 2020/1/18 A 29095C 268 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-04/2020 EPI_ISL_412980 2020/1/18 B derived 269 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-05/2020 EPI_ISL_412981 2020/1/18 B derived 69 BetaCov/Chongqing/IVDC-CQ-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408481 2020/1/18 A 29095C 98 BetaCov/Beijing/IVDC-BJ-005/2020 EPI_ISL_408485 2020/1/18 A 29095C 25 BetaCov/USA/WA1/2020 EPI_ISL_404895 2020/1/19 B ancestral 57 BetaCov/Hangzhou/HZCDC0001/2020 EPI_ISL_407313 2020/1/19 B derived 70 BetaCov/Shandong/IVDC-SD-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408482 2020/1/19 B ancestral 73 BetaCov/Jiangsu/IVDC-JS-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408488 2020/1/19 B ancestral 52 BetaCov/Hangzhou/HZ-1/2020 EPI_ISL_406970 2020/1/20 A 29095C 157 BetaCov/Fujian/8/2020 EPI_ISL_411060 2020/1/21 A 29095C 93 BetaCov/Chongqing/YC01/2020 EPI_ISL_408478 2020/1/21 B derived 158 BetaCov/Fujian/13/2020 EPI_ISL_411066 2020/1/22 A 29095C 189 BetaCov/Hong Kong/VM20001061/2020 EPI_ISL_412028 2020/1/22 C 31 BetaCov/USA/CA2/2020 EPI_ISL_406036 2020/1/22 A 29095T 32 BetaCov/USA/AZ1/2020 EPI_ISL_406223 2020/1/22 B derived 33 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF174/2020 EPI_ISL_406531 2020/1/22 B derived 34 BetaCov/Guangzhou/20SF206/2020 EPI_ISL_406533 2020/1/22 B derived 35 BetaCov/Foshan/20SF207/2020 EPI_ISL_406534 2020/1/ 22 B derived 36 BetaCov/Foshan/20SF210/2020 EPI_ISL_406535 2020/1/ 22 B derived 37 BetaCov/Foshan/20SF211/2020 EPI_ISL_406536 2020/1/ 22 B ancestral 130 BetaCov/Japan/OS-20-07-1/2020 EPI_ISL_410532 2020/1/23 C 154 BetaCov/France/IDF0372-isl/2020 EPI_ISL_410720 2020/1/23 B derived 168 BetaCov/Jiangsu/JS01/2020 EPI_ISL_411950 2020/1/23 B derived 272 BetaCov/Canada/ON/VIDO-01/2020 EPI_ISL_413015 2020/1/23 A 29095C 30 BetaCov/USA/CA1/2020 EPI_ISL_406034 2020/1/23 B ancestral 38 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF201/2020 EPI_ISL_406538 2020/1/23 C 42 BetaCov/France/IDF0373/2020 EPI_ISL_406597 2020/1/23 C 43 BetaCov/France/IDF0372/2020 EPI_ISL_406596 2020/1/23 B derived 53 BetaCov/Singapore/1/2020 EPI_ISL_406973 2020/1/23 C 87 BetaCov/Taiwan/2/2020 EPI_ISL_406031 2020/1/23 B ancestral 94 BetaCov/Chongqing/ZX01/2020 EPI_ISL_408479 2020/1/23 A 29095C 164 BetaCov/Taiwan/3/2020 EPI_ISL_411926 2020/1/24 B ancestral 169 BetaCov/Jiangsu/JS03/2020 EPI_ISL_411953 2020/1/24 B derived 170 BetaCov/Jiangsu/JS02/2020 EPI_ISL_411952 2020/1/24 A 29095C 210 BetaCov/Vietnam/VR03-38142/2020 EPI_ISL_408668 2020/1/24 A 29095C 58 BetaCov/Australia/NSW01/2020 EPI_ISL_407893 2020/1/ 24 B ancestral 131 BetaCov/Japan/NA-20-05-1/2020 EPI_ISL_410531 2020/1/25 A 29095C 135 BetaCov/USA/WA1-F6/2020 EPI_ISL_407215 2020/1/25 B ancestral 163 BetaCov/Taiwan/CGMH-CGU-01/2020 EPI_ISL_411915 2020/1/25 A 29095C 167 BetaCov/South Korea/KCDC03/2020 EPI_ISL_407193 2020/1/25 B derived 274 BetaCov/Canada/ON-PHL2445/2020 EPI_ISL_413014 2020/1/25 C 45 BetaCov/Australia/VIC01/2020 EPI_ISL_406844 2020/1/25 A 29095C 56 BetaCov/USA/WA1-A12/2020 EPI_ISL_407214 2020/1/25 B derived 61 BetaCov/Singapore/2/2020 EPI_ISL_407987 2020/1/25 B derived 81 BetaCov/Japan/AI/I-004/2020 EPI_ISL_407084 2020/1/ 25 C 89 BetaCov/Sydney/3/2020 EPI_ISL_408977 2020/1/25 C 145 BetaCov/Singapore/7/2020 EPI_ISL_410713 2020/1/27 B derived 162 BetaCov/Cambodia/0012/2020 EPI_ISL_411902 2020/1/ 27 B derived 91 BetaCov/USA/CA6/2020 EPI_ISL_410044 2020/1/27 A 29095C 147 BetaCov/Australia/QLD01/2020 EPI_ISL_407894 2020/1/28 C 160 BetaCov/France/IDF0386-islP1/2020 EPI_ISL_411219 2020/1/ 28 C 161 BetaCov/France/IDF0386-islP3/2020 EPI_ISL_411220 2020/1/ 28 B ancestral 165 BetaCov/Taiwan/4/2020 EPI_ISL_411927 2020/1/28 B derived 44 BetaCov/Germany/BavPat1/2020 EPI_ISL_406862 2020/1/28 A 29095C 90 BetaCov/USA/IL2/2020 EPI_ISL_410045 2020/1/28 C 152 BetaCov/Italy/INMI1-isl/2020 EPI_ISL_410545 2020/1/29 B derived 155 BetaCov/France/IDF0515-isl/2020 EPI_ISL_410984 2020/1/29 B derived 257 BetaCov/China/IQTC02/2020 EPI_ISL_412967 2020/1/29 C 264 BetaCov/Italy/SPL1/2020 EPI_ISL_412974 2020/1/29 A 29095C 54 BetaCov/England/02/2020 EPI_ISL_407073 2020/1/29 A 29095C 55 BetaCov/England/01/2020 EPI_ISL_407071 2020/1/29 B derived 62 BetaCov/USA/CA5/2020 EPI_ISL_408010 2020/1/29 B derived 63 BetaCov/USA/CA4/2020 EPI_ISL_408009 2020/1/29 B derived 65 BetaCov/USA/CA3/2020 EPI_ISL_408008 2020/1/29 B derived 66 BetaCov/France/IDF0515/2020 EPI_ISL_408430 2020/1/ 29 B derived 67 BetaCov/France/IDF0626/2020 EPI_ISL_408431 2020/1/ 29 A 29095T 77 BetaCov/Japan/TY-WK-012/2020 EPI_ISL_408665 2020/1/ 29 B derived 80 BetaCov/Japan/KY-V-029/2020 EPI_ISL_408669 2020/1/ 29 B derived 92 BetaCov/USA/MA1/2020 EPI_ISL_409067 2020/1/29 A 29095C 148 BetaCov/Australia/QLD02/2020 EPI_ISL_407896 2020/1/30 C 190 BetaCov/Hong Kong/VM20001988/2020 EPI_ISL_412029 2020/1/ 30 A 29095C 228 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC05/2020 EPI_ISL_412869 2020/1/30 A 29095C 229 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC06/2020 EPI_ISL_412870 2020/1/30 C 153 BetaCov/Italy/INMI1-cs/2020 EPI_ISL_410546 2020/1/31 A 29095C 230 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC07/2020 EPI_ISL_412871 2020/1/31 A 29095T 78 BetaCov/Japan/TY-WK-501/2020 EPI_ISL_408666 2020/1/ 31 A 29095T 79 BetaCov/Japan/TY-WK-521/2020 EPI_ISL_408667 2020/1/ 31 B derived 85 BetaCov/USA/WI1/2020 EPI_ISL_408670 2020/1/31 B derived 191 BetaCov/Hong Kong/VB20026565/2020 EPI_ISL_412030 2020/2/1 B ancestral 231 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC12/2020 EPI_ISL_412872 2020/2/ 1 B derived 60 BetaCov/Singapore/3/2020 EPI_ISL_407988 2020/2/1 B derived 151 BetaCov/Singapore/11/2020 EPI_ISL_410719 2020/2/2 B derived 159 BetaCov/France/IDF0571/2020 EPI_ISL_411218 2020/2/ 2 C 149 BetaCov/Singapore/8/2020 EPI_ISL_410714 2020/2/3 A 29095C 59 BetaCov/Belgium/GHB-03021/2020 EPI_ISL_407976 2020/2/3 C 146 BetaCov/Singapore/10/2020 EPI_ISL_410716 2020/2/4 C 150 BetaCov/Singapore/9/2020 EPI_ISL_410715 2020/2/4 A 29095C 143 BetaCov/Australia/QLD03/2020 EPI_ISL_410717 2020/2/ 5 A 29095C 144 BetaCov/Australia/QLD04/2020 EPI_ISL_410718 2020/2/ 5 B derived 256 BetaCov/China/IQTC01/2020 EPI_ISL_412966 2020/2/5 B derived 95 BetaCov/Taiwan/NTU02/2020 EPI_ISL_410218 2020/2/5 C 134 BetaCov/Singapore/5/2020 EPI_ISL_410536 2020/2/6 A 29095C 172 BetaCov/USA/CA7/2020 EPI_ISL_411954 2020/2/6 A 29095C 232 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC24/2020 EPI_ISL_412873 2020/2/6 C 175 BetaCov/Sweden/01/2020 EPI_ISL_411951 2020/2/7 A 29095C 270 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-06/2020 EPI_ISL_412982 2020/2/7 B derived 133 BetaCov/Singapore/6/2020 EPI_ISL_410537 2020/2/9 C 212 BetaCov/England/03/2020 EPI_ISL_412116 2020/2/9 C 226 BetaCov/England/09c/2020 EPI_ISL_412116 2020/2/9 B derived 173 BetaCov/USA/CA8/2020 EPI_ISL_411955 2020/2/10 B derived 258 BetaCov/Japan/Hu_DP_Kng_19-020/2020 EPI_ISL_412968 2020/2/10 B derived 259 BetaCov/Japan/Hu_DP_Kng_19-027/2020 EPI_ISL_412969 2020/2/10 A 29095T 174 BetaCov/USA/TX1/2020 EPI_ISL_411956 2020/2/11 B derived 262 BetaCov/Italy/CDG1/2020 EPI_ISL_412973 2020/2/20 B ancestral 187 BetaCov/Hefei/2/2020 EPI_ISL_412026 2020/2/23 B derived 227 BetaCov/USA/CA9/2020 EPI_ISL_412862 2020/2/23 A 29095C 261 BetaCov/USA/WA2/2020 EPI_ISL_412970 2020/2/24 B derived 253 BetaCov/Germany/Baden-Wuerttemberg-1/2020 EPI_ISL_ 412912 2020/2/25 B derived 263 BetaCov/Mexico/CDMX/InDRE_01/2020 EPI_ISL_412972 2020/2/27 B derived 265 BetaCov/Australia/NSW05/2020 EPI_ISL_412975 2020/2/28 C 273 BetaCov/Brazil/SPBR-02/2020 EPI_ISL_413016 2020/2/28 C 171 BetaCov/South Korea/SNU01/2020 EPI_ISL_411929 2020-01
【 在 cllearjks (cllearjks) 的大作中提到: 】 : 剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。 : https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis- : provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0 : 武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有； : 而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒 : 美国澳洲主要为A病毒； : 欧洲主要为C病毒。 : 病毒变异：A到B，B到C : Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : ...................
我曾执行过NIAID的项目。属于Dr. Fauci 的大团队。 有些人喜欢断章取义，不多说。我只谈一下我的想法。A 是源头。 样品中中国和欧美各占半壁江山。源头至少有一半 可能性来源于美欧 【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】 : 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文 : 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was : present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type. : 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒 : ，但不是主流。 : Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in : Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the : ...................
Update:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8211291/U-S-government-gave-3-
7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html
最新消息，美国政府给了武毒所钱让抓蝙蝠和搞研究，这就大大提高了了我猜测的第一种情况的可能性：
病毒来源是抓到武汉的云南蝙蝠，由于武毒所和美国的合作，该病毒也被送到美国研究，后来在美国泄露，造成病毒在美国人群流传，美国研究所的关闭，养老院神秘肺炎，电子烟肺炎现在看来都是近乎实锤的证据了。然后美国到武汉的人将身体中A类带回武
汉，传递少量原始A类给当地人，但传递受阻，激发奠基者效应，先在武汉美国人群中
发展成A类变种，然后再由此变异成武汉主流B类在武汉当地人中大量传播。这即可解释为啥武汉美国人中有A变种，也可以解释为啥武汉当地人中是B多A少。
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
原帖：
虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。
Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one
discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus
type.
这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
，但不是主流。
Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.
第二段说的是美澳有很多A类病毒，而那些在武汉居住过的美国人里发现A类的变种。
文章后面关于A和B关系的解释：
Variant ‘A’, most closely related to the virus found in both bats and
pangolins, is described as “the root of the outbreak” by researchers. Type ‘B’ is derived from ‘A’, separated by two mutations, then ‘C’ is in
turn a “daughter” of ‘B’.
Researchers say the localisation of the ‘B’ variant to East Asia could
result from a “founder effect”: a genetic bottleneck that occurs when, in the case of a virus, a new type is established from a small, isolated group of infections.
结合上面两段，唯一可以确证的是新冠病毒来源于蝙蝠。也许是武汉的蝙蝠，也许不是，但就算是武汉蝙蝠，该病毒开始对武汉当地人并没有太严重的危害，因为那个市场存在多年，新冠一直没有大爆发。如果病毒来源是武汉蝙蝠，那么合理推论应该是由于武毒所和美国的合作，该病毒被送到美国研究，后来在美国泄露，造成病毒在美国人群流传，并因亚欧人种差异，开始展现严重致病性。然后美国到武汉的人将身体中A类带回
武汉，因为奠基者效应，先发展成A类变种，然后再由此变异成武汉主流B类传到亚洲人种。
如果不是武汉蝙蝠，那就是美国本土原产病毒，在人群中流传开后，由美国人带到武汉，后面变异途径同上段所述一样。
Wuhan’s major virus type, ‘B’, was prevalent in patients from across East Asia. However, the variant didn’t travel much beyond the region without
further mutations – implying a "founder event" in Wuhan, or “resistance” against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.
这段说的是B类是东亚主要类型，而且基本只存在于东亚，而出了东亚区域后，再次因
为奠基者效应而变异成C类。
所以，合理的结论是：不管病毒到底是哪里起源的，这个疾病应该是美国首发，然后扩散至全世界。
也不是读生物的，但平时也得读论文啊，感觉意思比较清楚啊，咋出来这么多耿着脖子扯淡的啊，文章清清楚楚的写在这，还能瞎扯，扯的我一度怀疑自己，日，还是脸皮不够厚。
美国本土也不原产。
基因序列早就揭示了，这个病毒是云南蝙蝠病毒和马来西亚穿山甲病毒重组。
只有米蒂，全世界收集病毒。而米蒂的云南蝙蝠病毒，还是武汉的石郑丽给的。
目前都只是猜测，米蒂起源是高概率，但无论如何，石郑丽这个锤子都有原罪。故称为“石锤”。
我粗略看了一下那一段。
Founder effect说的是type B。
意思是B在全球范围内少见，但是在武汉高频，是因为在武汉出现了岛屿效应
文章并没有直接说起源在哪里。但是综合来说，没有支持武汉起源。
写的不错
ps:gre逻辑满分太狠了...
我真是服了
这种歪了心眼的解读，到底有何价值？
逻辑满分很多，阅读理解上90%的不多。
【 在 subsub1(subsub1) 的大作中提到: 】
: 写的不错
: ps:gre逻辑满分太狠了...
这个是他们的abstract, 解释这个吧
In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute
respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three
central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup
coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is
the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to
have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types,
pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance
against this type outside Asia. The network faithfully traces routes of
infections for documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases,
indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to
help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be
quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.
SARS-CoV-2 evolutionsubtypeancestral type
The search for human origins seemed to take a step forward with the
publication of the global human mitochondrial DNA tree (1). It soon turned
out, however, that the tree-building method did not facilitate an
unambiguous interpretation of the data. This motivated the development, in
the early 1990s, of phylogenetic network methods which are capable of
enabling the visualization of a multitude of optimal trees (2, 3). This
network approach, based on mitochondrial and Y chromosomal data, allowed us to reconstruct the prehistoric population movements which colonized the
planet (4, 5). The phylogenetic network approach from 2003 onward then found application in the reconstruction of language prehistory (6). It is now
timely to apply the phylogenetic network approach to virological data to
explore how this method can contribute to an understanding of coronavirus
evolution.
In early March 2020, the GISAID database (https://www.gisaid.org/) contained a compilation of 253 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) complete and partial genomes contributed by clinicians and
researchers from across the world since December 2019. To understand the
evolution of this virus within humans, and to assist in tracing infection
pathways and designing preventive strategies, we here present a phylogenetic network of 160 largely complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1.
Download figure Open in new tab Download powerpoint
Fig. 1.
Phylogenetic network of 160 SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Node A is the root cluster
obtained with the bat (R. affinis) coronavirus isolate BatCoVRaTG13 from
Yunnan Province. Circle areas are proportional to the number of taxa, and
each notch on the links represents a mutated nucleotide position. The
sequence range under consideration is 56 to 29,797, with nucleotide position (np) numbering according to the Wuhan 1 reference sequence (8). The median-joining network algorithm (2) and the Steiner algorithm (9) were used, both implemented in the software package Network5011CS (https://www.fluxus-
engineering.com/), with the parameter epsilon set to zero, generating this
network containing 288 most-parsimonious trees of length 229 mutations. The reticulations are mainly caused by recurrent mutations at np11083. The 161
taxa (160 human viruses and one bat virus) yield 101 distinct genomic
sequences. The phylogenetic diagram is available for detailed scrutiny in A0 poster format (SI Appendix, Fig. S5) and in the free Network download files.
Zhou et al. (7) recently reported a closely related bat coronavirus, with 96.2% sequence similarity to the human virus. We use this bat virus as an
outgroup, resulting in the root of the network being placed in a cluster of lineages which we have labeled “A.” Overall, the network, as expected in
an ongoing outbreak, shows ancestral viral genomes existing alongside their newly mutated daughter genomes.
There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous
mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (from the southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral
genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a
number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a
history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes
five individuals from Wuhan, two of which are represented in the ancestral
node, and eight other East Asians from China and adjacent countries. It is
noteworthy that nearly half (15/33) of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.
Two derived network nodes are striking in terms of the number of individuals included in the nodal type and in mutational branches radiating from these nodes. We have labeled these phylogenetic clusters B and C.
For type B, all but 19 of the 93 type B genomes were sampled in Wuhan (n =
22), in other parts of eastern China (n = 31), and, sporadically, in
adjacent Asian countries (n = 21). Outside of East Asia, 10 B-types were
found in viral genomes from the United States and Canada, one in Mexico,
four in France, two in Germany, and one each in Italy and Australia. Node B is derived from A by two mutations: the synonymous mutation T8782C and the
nonsynonymous mutation C28144T changing a leucine to a serine. Cluster B is striking with regard to mutational branch lengths: While the ancestral B
type is monopolized (26/26 genomes) by East Asians, every single (19/19) B-
type genome outside of Asia has evolved mutations. This phenomenon does not appear to be due to the month-long time lag and concomitant mutation rate
acting on the viral genome before it spread outside of China (Dataset S1,
Supplementary Table 2). A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of
the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance
outside East Asia.
Type C differs from its parent type B by the nonsynonymous mutation G26144T which changes a glycine to a valine. In the dataset, this is the major
European type (n = 11), with representatives in France, Italy, Sweden, and
England, and in California and Brazil. It is absent in the mainland Chinese sample, but evident in Singapore (n = 5) and also found in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.
One practical application of the phylogenetic network is to reconstruct
infection paths where they are unknown and pose a public health risk. The
following cases where the infection history is well documented may serve as illustrations (SI Appendix). On 25 February 2020, the first Brazilian was
reported to have been infected following a visit to Italy, and the network
algorithm reflects this with a mutational link between an Italian and his
Brazilian viral genome in cluster C (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). In another case, a man from Ontario had traveled from Wuhan in central China to Guangdong in southern China and then returned to Canada, where he fell ill and was
conclusively diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on 27
January 2020. In the phylogenetic network (SI Appendix, Fig. S2), his virus genome branches from a reconstructed ancestral node, with derived virus
variants in Foshan and Shenzhen (both in Guangdong province), in agreement
with his travel history. His virus genome now coexists with those of other
infected North Americans (one Canadian and two Californians) who evidently
share a common viral genealogy. The case of the single Mexican viral genome in the network is a documented infection diagnosed on 28 February 2020 in a Mexican traveler to Italy. Not only does the network confirm the Italian
origin of the Mexican virus (SI Appendix, Fig. S3), but it also implies that this Italian virus derives from the first documented German infection on 27 January 2020 in an employee working for the Webasto company in Munich, who, in turn, had contracted the infection from a Chinese colleague in Shanghai who had received a visit by her parents from Wuhan. This viral journey from Wuhan to Mexico, lasting a month, is documented by 10 mutations in the
phylogenetic network.
This viral network is a snapshot of the early stages of an epidemic before
the phylogeny becomes obscured by subsequent migration and mutation. The
question may be asked whether the rooting of the viral evolution can be
achieved at this early stage by using the oldest available sampled genome as a root. As SI Appendix, Fig. S4 shows, however, the first virus genome that was sampled on 24 December 2019 already is distant from the root type
according to the bat coronavirus outgroup rooting.
The described core mutations have been confirmed by a variety of
contributing laboratories and sequencing platforms and can be considered
reliable. The phylogeographic patterns in the network are potentially
affected by distinctive migratory histories, founder events, and sample size. Nevertheless, it would be prudent to consider the possibility that
mutational variants might modulate the clinical presentation and spread of
the disease. The phylogenetic classification provided here may be used to
rule out or confirm such effects when evaluating clinical and
epidemiological outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and when designing
treatment and, eventually, vaccines.
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
我搞错了，以为楼主逻辑题说的是Verbal Reasoning
【 在 ragged(ragged) 的大作中提到: 】
: 逻辑满分很多，阅读理解上90%的不多。
A类在美国已经有严重致病性了吗？还是经过武汉变为B，再经过意大利变为C，再传回
美国的C类才具有严重致病性？
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
美国的办法很简单， 就是不测。
美国有蝙蝠， 关岛和附近岛屿的人吃蝙蝠， 但是，不测。
美国有去年今年“流感病人”的试子， 初步测出不少其实是新肺病人。
美国政府强力制止接着往下测。
不测就没有早期病例证据， 不测就可以屏蔽起源地点探查。
B怎么变成C的，如果B只在武汉。
你要看全文，不是media release
全文在 https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
A是起源，四个广东人携带病毒A的一个subclass，然后三个日本人和两个在武汉的美国人
有变异了的A。第二个subclass of A 起源于两个武汉人。看abstract的感觉是广东人
和武汉人最早携带A原始病毒。
There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous
mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (fromthe southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral
genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a
number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a
history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes
five individuals from Wuhan, two of which are represented in the ancestral
node, and eight other East Asians from China and adjacent countries. It is
noteworthy that nearly half (15/33) of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.
【 在 TheMatrix (TheMatrix) 的大作中提到: 】
: A类在美国已经有严重致病性了吗？还是经过武汉变为B，再经过意大利变为C，再传回
: 美国的C类才具有严重致病性？
: was
: the
剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-
provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0
武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有；
而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒
美国澳洲主要为A病毒；
欧洲主要为C病毒。
病毒变异：A到B，B到C
Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one
discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – waspresent in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus
type.
福斯特和同事发现最接近在蝙蝠身上被发现的COVID-19的类型，类型A，原始人类病毒
基因组，存在于武汉，但是令人奇怪的是并不是该城市的主导病毒类型。
Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.
变异版本的A病毒是在居住在武汉的美国人中发现的，并且大量的A类型病毒在美国和澳大利亚被发现。
Wuhan’s major virus type, ‘B’, was prevalent in patients from across EastAsia. However, the variant didn’t travel much beyond the region without
further mutations – implying a "founder event" in Wuhan, or “resistance” against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.
武汉的主要病毒类型B，在东亚病人中流行。然而，这一种群在没有进一步突变的情况
下没有跨区域流行，暗示了武汉的奠基者事件，或者说，阻力抵挡了这一类型在东亚以外的地区传播，据研究人员说。
科普一下 the founder effect
The founder effect is a case of genetic drift caused by a small population
with limited numbers of individuals breaking away from a parent population. The occurrence of retinitis pigmentosa in the British colony on the Tristan da Cunha islands is an example of the founder effect.
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/奠基者效应
The ‘C’ variant is the major European type, found in early patients from
France, Italy, Sweden and England. It is absent from the study’s Chinese
mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.
C种群是欧洲主要类型，在法国，意大利，瑞典和英国的早期病人中被发现。他们在中
国大陆的研究采样中缺失，但是在新加坡，香港和韩国被发现。
这几段上面说明几个问题：
第一，美国人主要流行的A类的变异类型，有武汉居住史。
第二，美国的大流行类型，不是从欧洲来的，而是从中国来的。
第三，中共隐瞒了C类型数据。
第四，A类型数据较少的原因，有可能是该类型数据没有被充分采样和上传，并不一定
是A类型在武汉传染的人数少。
最重要的一点：A的原始类型的病毒，只在武汉被发现，武汉有奠基者效应！
背锅的华南市场好冤枉
【 在 daigaku (๑۩۞۩๑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我粗略看了一下那一段。
: Founder effect说的是type B。
: 意思是B在全球范围内少见，但是在武汉高频，是因为在武汉出现了岛屿效应
: 文章并没有直接说起源在哪里。但是综合来说，没有支持武汉起源。
这个回答靠谱。founder effect只解释为啥这一地区族系高度一致，根本不解释起源问题。老酱一看到"founder"就湿了。
A在美国致命不？
【 在 christina200 (na) 的大作中提到: 】
: A是起源，四个广东人携带病毒A的一个subclass，然后三个日本人和两个在武汉的美国人
: 有变异了的A。第二个subclass of A 起源于两个武汉人。看abstract的感觉是广东人
: 和武汉人最早携带A原始病毒。
: There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous
: mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (
from
: the southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral
: genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a: number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a
: history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-
: allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes
: ...................
【 在 cllearjks (cllearjks) 的大作中提到: 】
: 剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。
: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-
: provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0
: 武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有；
: 而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒
: 美国澳洲主要为A病毒；
: 欧洲主要为C病毒。
: 病毒变异：A到B，B到C
: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: ...................
文盲老酱就不要瞎扯了。
founder effect说的是b.
过分解读了。不要看谁谁谁的烂文。没有实锤就是没有。
其实美国很可疑。 主要是面对土鳖指责，明明自己有很多流感研究的样品。就是不测。
如果电子烟肺炎的样品测后报告打土鳖的脸多爽啊。
第二，西雅图的流感研究被叫停。这很心虚吗。
第三，CDC神秘的试剂盒失灵。
难怪别人会联想
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
症屁懂个屁，也不需要懂。 舔疮是任务，舔了才有盒饭吃。
现在在美国流行的主要就是A，致命。B针对东亚人，A和C针对欧美人。
【 在 TheMatrix (TheMatrix) 的大作中提到: 】
: A在美国致命不？
: 国人
: from
: C-
翻译完全正确
结论也正确
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
现在看来B的传染性很强，所以在武汉和韩国都有很多病例，但死亡率较低。
C的传染性和死亡率都很高，至少对白人如此。
A可能是死亡率高但传染性较弱。
gre满分的解释下作者这个图。
你总不能比作者更知道他想说啥吧
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
你这逻辑满分一定是机考的。叔笔考满分读不出来你脑补的东西 LOL
‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S.
Coronavirus Response
https://www.cn-healthcare.com/article/20200314/content-532593.html
随着新病例的逐渐增多，海伦（Helen Y. Chu, 华盛顿大学西雅图分校的传染病学专家）等不及了。私下进行检测，发现大量新冠病毒阳性
2月25日，海伦·Y·朱和同事开始检测流感样本。很快，他们发现当地一位青少年测试结果为阳性。这名青少年与美国首例确诊患者在同一个县，但他没有中国武汉旅行史，与任何已知病例也没有接触。
海伦和同事将此事通知当地的卫生官员。当天，美国联邦政府给出的回应直截了当。“他们在电话里说得很清楚，就是让海伦住手，不要再检测了。”林德奎斯特回忆说。
【 在 vuse (vuse) 的大作中提到: 】
: 美国的办法很简单， 就是不测。
: 美国有蝙蝠， 关岛和附近岛屿的人吃蝙蝠， 但是，不测。
: 美国有去年今年“流感病人”的试子， 初步测出不少其实是新肺病人。
: 美国政府强力制止接着往下测。
: 不测就没有早期病例证据， 不测就可以屏蔽起源地点探查。
你把surprisingly 翻译故意去掉，意思大变。
这里恐怕应该译成“卧槽，这个A党性不可思议，虽然最早出现在武汉，居然死活不肯
在武汉流行”。
你的翻译，因为屁股歪了，没有突出”拍案惊奇”的暧昧和高潮感。
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
美国联邦政府为什么叫停传染病学专家Helen Y. Chu和她的同事的检测？
除了做贼心虚还有什么解释？
【 在 greendot (清风抚山岗) 的大作中提到: 】
: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html
: ‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S.: Coronavirus Response
: https://www.cn-healthcare.com/article/20200314/content-532593.html
: 随着新病例的逐渐增多，海伦（Helen Y. Chu, 华盛顿大学西雅图分校的传染病学专家
: ）等不及了。私下进行检测，发现大量新冠病毒阳性
: 2月25日，海伦·Y·朱和同事开始检测流感样本。很快，他们发现当地一位青少年测试
: 结果为阳性。这名青少年与美国首例确诊患者在同一个县，但他没有中国武汉旅行史，
: 与任何已知病例也没有接触。
: 海伦和同事将此事通知当地的卫生官员。当天，美国联邦政府给出的回应直截了当。“
: ...................
切，跟我牛逼啥呀，老夫也是20多年前笔考GRE。后面的推论是根据这篇文章结合新冠
爆发后其它有关的报道做出的。这篇文章本身只是讲了A，B，C类各自的传承关系而已
，结合其它事实，老夫的推论基本是唯一合理解释。
【 在 dinassor (牛磨王) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你这逻辑满分一定是机考的。叔笔考满分读不出来你脑补的东西 LOL
就凭你瞎联系而不是就文章本身提出看法就知道你是机考满分，不服的话你把成绩单给大家看看 LOL
【 在 jhe123(jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 切，跟我牛逼啥呀，老夫也是20多年前笔考GRE。后面的推论是根据这篇文章结
合新冠
: 爆发后其它有关的报道做出的。这篇文章本身只是讲了A，B，C类各自的传承关
系而已
: ，结合其它事实，老夫的推论基本是唯一合理解释。
Founder其实一般都是指殖民者、开拓者
而不是指什么起源
【 在 shorea (未注册用户) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个回答靠谱。founder effect只解释为啥这一地区族系高度一致，根本不解释起源问
: 题。老酱一看到"founder"就湿了。
合理
哥早说了，整篇的点睛之笔就是 surprisingly
事出反常必有妖
瞧你这副淫贱样，高潮不离嘴啊，找不到男人又跑到这儿来过性生活了？surprisingly在这里针对的是大众之前的理解，因为疾病在武汉首先爆发，没研究之前大家都认为武汉的主流病毒应该是最早类型才对，但研究发现并非如此，所以才有了“surprisingly”。
BTW，拍案惊奇讲了各种故事，不过看你这副欠操的样子，你丫是不是把它当金瓶梅了
，读的时候专挑里面的色情荒淫部分看，呵呵。。。不然你咋会说出：“没有突出”拍案惊奇”的暧昧和高潮感”这种傻逼话来。
【 在 mynight01 (一束星光) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你把surprisingly 翻译故意去掉，意思大变。
: 这里恐怕应该译成“卧槽，这个A党性不可思议，虽然最早出现在武汉，居然死活不肯
: 在武汉流行”。
: 你的翻译，因为屁股歪了，。没有突出”拍案惊奇”的暧昧和高潮感
: was
: the
你还留着20多年前的考试成绩单，尼玛你该多无聊啊。还有你丫读文章难道就只读文章本身，从来不结合已有的其它相关知识作评判？那至少说明你从来没做过peer review
啊，那你啥水平也不需要再多说了吧。
【 在 dinassor (牛磨王) 的大作中提到: 】
: 就凭你瞎联系而不是就文章本身提出看法就知道你是机考满分，不服的话你把成绩单给
: 大家看看 LOL
:
: 切，跟我牛逼啥呀，老夫也是20多年前笔考GRE。后面的推论是根据这篇文章结
: 合新冠
:
: 爆发后其它有关的报道做出的。这篇文章本身只是讲了A，B，C类各自的传承关
: 系而已
:
: ，结合其它事实，老夫的推论基本是唯一合理解释。
:
然
原发地没有流行原始病毒，而是流行变异病毒，而原始病毒却在另一地方大为流行
这完全颠覆了作者这个国际顶尖流行病专家的三观
【 在 jhe123(jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
<br>: 瞧你这副淫贱样，高潮不离嘴啊，找不到男人又跑到这儿来过性生活了？surprisingly
<br>: 在这里针对的是大众之前的理解，因为疾病在武汉首先爆发，没研究之前大家都
认为武
<br>: 汉的主流病毒应该是最早类型才对，但研究发现并非如此，所以才有了&
ldquo;
surprisingly
<br>: ”。
<br>: BTW，拍案惊奇讲了各种故事，不过看你这副欠操的样子，你丫是不是把
它当金
瓶梅了
<br>: ，读的时候专挑里面的色情荒淫部分看，呵呵。。。不然你咋会说出：&
ldquo;没有突
出”拍
<br>: 案惊奇”的暧昧和高潮感”这种傻逼话来。
<br>
尼玛你丫不要瞎联系的再读一边文章看看。
先入为主的读东西是GRE逻辑考试的大忌 LOL
【 在 jhe123(jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你还留着20多年前的考试成绩单，尼玛你该多无聊啊。还有你丫读文章难道就只读文章
: 本身，从来不结合已有的其它相关知识作评判？那至少说明你从来没做过peer
review
: 啊，那你啥水平也不需要再多说了吧。
reference 7得nature 说明了是云南得蝙蝠，gre满分架不住屁股歪，对证据视而不见
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
大致同意，除了一点：
C型显然为奠基者效应，但B型产生于自然奠基者效应可能不大，因为时间上和世运赛太巧合，而且无法解释为何美国情报局11月就预判B型将在武汉爆发。
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
因为根本不是为了解读论文,全是脑补。
【 在 Alimina (导热不导电) 的大作中提到: 】
: reference 7得nature 说明了是云南得蝙蝠，gre满分架不住屁股歪，对证据视而不见
: was
: the
不错，慢慢看吧，随着各种证据出来，或许会有真相大白的一天
这论文怎么就得出病毒起源于美国的结论了？最原始的A在武汉发现，后来中国下令销
毁了武汉病毒最早期的样本，这些都是事实，要有说服力那应该完整公布武汉最早期的毒株，可惜这些证据都不存在了被共产党下令销毁了。
用脑子想想，如果病毒最初在美国爆发的，那么美国的医护早就倒下一大批了吧，美国是如何隐瞒的？如果是美国最先爆发，那么以美国和欧洲的联系紧密程度，欧洲也应该早就大爆发了吧，如果美国政府隐瞒，那么欧洲日本韩国都在隐瞒？目前所有的证据都证明了日韩和欧洲的病毒是武汉传过去
合理的猜测speculation而已。不能是结论conclusion。
根据论文的Fig 1和SI里面的数据，并没有“A类的变异类型”这种说法，呵呵
【 在 cllearjks (cllearjks) 的大作中提到: 】
: 剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。
: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-
: provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0
: 武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有；
: 而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒
: 美国澳洲主要为A病毒；
: 欧洲主要为C病毒。
: 病毒变异：A到B，B到C
: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: ...................
这张图错误百出，跟论文无关。
【 在 lgw(abcdefg) 的大作中提到: 】
: gre满分的解释下作者这个图。
: 你总不能比作者更知道他想说啥吧
: was
: the
中国政府的作为，可以理解为担心但不确定病毒来自武汉P4实验室。迅速封城军管实验室，完全符合对付生物武器做法。
病毒能否爆发取决于毒性，而毒性依不同人群而不同，Spanish flu, SARS, MERS 无不如此。A型B型都无法在欧美中东爆发，导致爆发的是C型。
【 在 guagua123 (Your Dad) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这论文怎么就得出病毒起源于美国的结论了？最原始的A在武汉发现，后来中国下令销
: 毁了武汉病毒最早期的样本，这些都是事实，要有说服力那应该完整公布武汉最早期的
: 毒株，可惜这些证据都不存在了被共产党下令销毁了。
: 用脑子想想，如果病毒最初在美国爆发的，那么美国的医护早就倒下一大批了吧，美国
: 是如何隐瞒的？如果是美国最先爆发，那么以美国和欧洲的联系紧密程度，欧洲也应该
: 早就大爆发了吧，如果美国政府隐瞒，那么欧洲日本韩国都在隐瞒？目前所有的证据都
: 证明了日韩和欧洲的病毒是武汉传过去
【 在 guagua123 (Your Dad) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这论文怎么就得出病毒起源于美国的结论了？最原始的A在武汉发现，后来中国下令销
: 毁了武汉病毒最早期的样本，这些都是事实，要有说服力那应该完整公布武汉最早期的
: 毒株，可惜这些证据都不存在了被共产党下令销毁了。
: 用脑子想想，如果病毒最初在美国爆发的，那么美国的医护早就倒下一大批了吧，美国
: 是如何隐瞒的？如果是美国最先爆发，那么以美国和欧洲的联系紧密程度，欧洲也应该
: 早就大爆发了吧，如果美国政府隐瞒，那么欧洲日本韩国都在隐瞒？目前所有的证据都
: 证明了日韩和欧洲的病毒是武汉传过去
如果。。。那么
如果。。。那么
标准的一拍脑袋。
简单，2019年7月生化武器基地Fort Detrick发生病毒泄露。只要意大利等各国不论开
棺验尸也好，检验2019年得过流感人群的抗体也好，只要A型不存在于2019年7月以前，B型不存在于10月武汉世运会以前，C型不存在于2020年1月以前，那就真相大白。
【 在 szxp (xp) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不错，慢慢看吧，随着各种证据出来，或许会有真相大白的一天
以下是剑桥论文的SI原始数据，cllearjks出来讲讲，哪些是A，哪些是变异的A？呵呵
Supplementary Table 2b. Phylogenetic cluster assignment of of viral genome variants.
Note: Sorted by date
Type subtype GISAID genome label GISAID Accession ID Collection date
B derived 4 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-01/2019 EPI_ISL_402123 2019/12/24
B derived 48 BetaCov/Wuhan/WH01/2019 EPI_ISL_406798 2019/12/26
B ancestral 1 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-01/2019 EPI_ISL_402119 2019/12/30
B derived 10 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV05/2019 EPI_ISL_402128 2019/12/30
B ancestral 11 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV06/2019 EPI_ISL_402129 2019/12/
30
B derived 12 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV07/2019 EPI_ISL_402130 2019/12/30
B derived 19 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-03/2019 EPI_ISL_403930
2019/12/30
B derived 2 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-05/2019 EPI_ISL_402121 2019/12/30
B derived 20 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-01/2019 EPI_ISL_402132 2019/12/30
B derived 250 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-02/2019 EPI_ISL_412898 2019/12/30
B ancestral 251 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-03/2019 EPI_ISL_412899
2019/12/30
B ancestral 5 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV04/2019 EPI_ISL_402124 2019/12/30
B derived 82 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-02/2019 EPI_ISL_403931
2019/12/30
B ancestral 83 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-04/2019 EPI_ISL_403929
2019/12/30
B derived 9 BetaCov/Wuhan/WIV02/2019 EPI_ISL_402127 2019/12/30
B ancestral 110 BetaCov/Wuhan-Hu-1/2019 EPI_ISL_402125 2019/12/
31
B derived 3 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-04/2020 EPI_ISL_402120 2020/1/
1
B ancestral 49 BetaCov/Wuhan/WH03/2020 EPI_ISL_406800 2020/1/1
B ancestral 75 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-envF13-20/2020 EPI_ISL_408514
2020/1/1
B derived 76 BetaCov/Wuhan/IVDC-HB-envF13-21/2020 EPI_ISL_408515 2020/1/1
B derived 84 BetaCov/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-05/2020 EPI_ISL_403928
2020/1/1
B ancestral 46 BetaCov/China/WHU01/2020 EPI_ISL_406716 2020/1/2
B ancestral 47 BetaCov/China/WHU02/2020 EPI_ISL_406717 2020/1/2
A 29095C 50 BetaCov/Wuhan/WH04/2020 EPI_ISL_406801 2020/1/5
B derived 176 BetaCov/China/WH-09/2020 EPI_ISL_411957 2020/1/8
B derived 224 BetaCov/Jingzhou/HBCDC-HB-01/2020 EPI_ISL_412459
2020/1/8
B ancestral 7 BetaCov/Nonthaburi/61/2020 EPI_ISL_403962 2020/1/8
A 29095T 28 BetaCov/Shenzhen/HKU-SZ-002/2020 EPI_ISL_406030 2020/1/10
A 29095T 27 BetaCov/Shenzhen/HKU-SZ-005/2020 EPI_ISL_405839 2020/1/11
B derived 72 BetaCov/Jiangxi/IVDC-JX-002/2020 EPI_ISL_408486
2020/1/11
B derived 111 BetaCov/Nepal/61/2020 EPI_ISL_410301 2020/1/13
A 29095T 40 BetaCov/Shenzhen/SZTH-002/2020 EPI_ISL_406593 2020/1/13
B ancestral 8 BetaCov/Nonthaburi/74/2020 EPI_ISL_403963 2020/1/
13
A 29095T 13 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF012/2020 EPI_ISL_403932 2020/1/14
A 29095T 14 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF013/2020 EPI_ISL_403933 2020/1/15
B derived 15 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF014/2020 EPI_ISL_403934 2020/1/15
A 29095T 16 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF025/2020 EPI_ISL_403935 2020/1/15
A 29095C 71 BetaCov/Sichuan/IVDC-SC-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408484 2020/1/15
B derived 21 BetaCov/Zhejiang/WZ-01/2020 EPI_ISL_404227 2020/1/
16
B derived 41 BetaCov/Shenzhen/SZTH-003/2020 EPI_ISL_406594 2020/1/16
B derived 86 BetaCov/Shenzhen/SZTH-004/2020 EPI_ISL_406595 2020/1/16
B derived 17 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF028/2020 EPI_ISL_403936 2020/1/17
B ancestral 22 BetaCov/Zhejiang/WZ-02/2020 EPI_ISL_404228 2020/1/17
B ancestral 23 BetaCov/Zhejiang/WZ-02/2020 EPI_ISL_404228 2020/1/17
A 29095C 266 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-02/2020 EPI_ISL_412978 2020/1/17
A 29095C 68 BetaCov/Yu--an/IVDC-YN-003/2020 EPI_ISL_408480 2020/1/17
B derived 18 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF040/2020 EPI_ISL_403937 2020/1/18
A 29095C 267 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-03/2020 EPI_ISL_412979 2020/1/18
A 29095C 268 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-04/2020 EPI_ISL_412980 2020/1/18
B derived 269 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-05/2020 EPI_ISL_412981 2020/1/18
B derived 69 BetaCov/Chongqing/IVDC-CQ-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408481
2020/1/18
A 29095C 98 BetaCov/Beijing/IVDC-BJ-005/2020 EPI_ISL_408485 2020/1/18
A 29095C 25 BetaCov/USA/WA1/2020 EPI_ISL_404895 2020/1/19
B ancestral 57 BetaCov/Hangzhou/HZCDC0001/2020 EPI_ISL_407313
2020/1/19
B derived 70 BetaCov/Shandong/IVDC-SD-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408482
2020/1/19
B ancestral 73 BetaCov/Jiangsu/IVDC-JS-001/2020 EPI_ISL_408488
2020/1/19
B ancestral 52 BetaCov/Hangzhou/HZ-1/2020 EPI_ISL_406970 2020/1/20
A 29095C 157 BetaCov/Fujian/8/2020 EPI_ISL_411060 2020/1/21
A 29095C 93 BetaCov/Chongqing/YC01/2020 EPI_ISL_408478 2020/1/21
B derived 158 BetaCov/Fujian/13/2020 EPI_ISL_411066 2020/1/22
A 29095C 189 BetaCov/Hong Kong/VM20001061/2020 EPI_ISL_412028
2020/1/22
C 31 BetaCov/USA/CA2/2020 EPI_ISL_406036 2020/1/22
A 29095T 32 BetaCov/USA/AZ1/2020 EPI_ISL_406223 2020/1/22
B derived 33 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF174/2020 EPI_ISL_406531 2020/1/22
B derived 34 BetaCov/Guangzhou/20SF206/2020 EPI_ISL_406533 2020/1/22
B derived 35 BetaCov/Foshan/20SF207/2020 EPI_ISL_406534 2020/1/
22
B derived 36 BetaCov/Foshan/20SF210/2020 EPI_ISL_406535 2020/1/
22
B derived 37 BetaCov/Foshan/20SF211/2020 EPI_ISL_406536 2020/1/
22
B ancestral 130 BetaCov/Japan/OS-20-07-1/2020 EPI_ISL_410532
2020/1/23
C 154 BetaCov/France/IDF0372-isl/2020 EPI_ISL_410720 2020/1/23
B derived 168 BetaCov/Jiangsu/JS01/2020 EPI_ISL_411950 2020/1/23
B derived 272 BetaCov/Canada/ON/VIDO-01/2020 EPI_ISL_413015 2020/1/23
A 29095C 30 BetaCov/USA/CA1/2020 EPI_ISL_406034 2020/1/23
B ancestral 38 BetaCov/Guangdong/20SF201/2020 EPI_ISL_406538
2020/1/23
C 42 BetaCov/France/IDF0373/2020 EPI_ISL_406597 2020/1/23
C 43 BetaCov/France/IDF0372/2020 EPI_ISL_406596 2020/1/23
B derived 53 BetaCov/Singapore/1/2020 EPI_ISL_406973 2020/1/23
C 87 BetaCov/Taiwan/2/2020 EPI_ISL_406031 2020/1/23
B ancestral 94 BetaCov/Chongqing/ZX01/2020 EPI_ISL_408479 2020/1/23
A 29095C 164 BetaCov/Taiwan/3/2020 EPI_ISL_411926 2020/1/24
B ancestral 169 BetaCov/Jiangsu/JS03/2020 EPI_ISL_411953 2020/1/24
B derived 170 BetaCov/Jiangsu/JS02/2020 EPI_ISL_411952 2020/1/24
A 29095C 210 BetaCov/Vietnam/VR03-38142/2020 EPI_ISL_408668 2020/1/24
A 29095C 58 BetaCov/Australia/NSW01/2020 EPI_ISL_407893 2020/1/
24
B ancestral 131 BetaCov/Japan/NA-20-05-1/2020 EPI_ISL_410531
2020/1/25
A 29095C 135 BetaCov/USA/WA1-F6/2020 EPI_ISL_407215 2020/1/25
B ancestral 163 BetaCov/Taiwan/CGMH-CGU-01/2020 EPI_ISL_411915
2020/1/25
A 29095C 167 BetaCov/South Korea/KCDC03/2020 EPI_ISL_407193 2020/1/25
B derived 274 BetaCov/Canada/ON-PHL2445/2020 EPI_ISL_413014 2020/1/25
C 45 BetaCov/Australia/VIC01/2020 EPI_ISL_406844 2020/1/25
A 29095C 56 BetaCov/USA/WA1-A12/2020 EPI_ISL_407214 2020/1/25
B derived 61 BetaCov/Singapore/2/2020 EPI_ISL_407987 2020/1/25
B derived 81 BetaCov/Japan/AI/I-004/2020 EPI_ISL_407084 2020/1/
25
C 89 BetaCov/Sydney/3/2020 EPI_ISL_408977 2020/1/25
C 145 BetaCov/Singapore/7/2020 EPI_ISL_410713 2020/1/27
B derived 162 BetaCov/Cambodia/0012/2020 EPI_ISL_411902 2020/1/
27
B derived 91 BetaCov/USA/CA6/2020 EPI_ISL_410044 2020/1/27
A 29095C 147 BetaCov/Australia/QLD01/2020 EPI_ISL_407894 2020/1/28
C 160 BetaCov/France/IDF0386-islP1/2020 EPI_ISL_411219 2020/1/
28
C 161 BetaCov/France/IDF0386-islP3/2020 EPI_ISL_411220 2020/1/
28
B ancestral 165 BetaCov/Taiwan/4/2020 EPI_ISL_411927 2020/1/28
B derived 44 BetaCov/Germany/BavPat1/2020 EPI_ISL_406862 2020/1/28
A 29095C 90 BetaCov/USA/IL2/2020 EPI_ISL_410045 2020/1/28
C 152 BetaCov/Italy/INMI1-isl/2020 EPI_ISL_410545 2020/1/29
B derived 155 BetaCov/France/IDF0515-isl/2020 EPI_ISL_410984
2020/1/29
B derived 257 BetaCov/China/IQTC02/2020 EPI_ISL_412967 2020/1/29
C 264 BetaCov/Italy/SPL1/2020 EPI_ISL_412974 2020/1/29
A 29095C 54 BetaCov/England/02/2020 EPI_ISL_407073 2020/1/29
A 29095C 55 BetaCov/England/01/2020 EPI_ISL_407071 2020/1/29
B derived 62 BetaCov/USA/CA5/2020 EPI_ISL_408010 2020/1/29
B derived 63 BetaCov/USA/CA4/2020 EPI_ISL_408009 2020/1/29
B derived 65 BetaCov/USA/CA3/2020 EPI_ISL_408008 2020/1/29
B derived 66 BetaCov/France/IDF0515/2020 EPI_ISL_408430 2020/1/
29
B derived 67 BetaCov/France/IDF0626/2020 EPI_ISL_408431 2020/1/
29
A 29095T 77 BetaCov/Japan/TY-WK-012/2020 EPI_ISL_408665 2020/1/
29
B derived 80 BetaCov/Japan/KY-V-029/2020 EPI_ISL_408669 2020/1/
29
B derived 92 BetaCov/USA/MA1/2020 EPI_ISL_409067 2020/1/29
A 29095C 148 BetaCov/Australia/QLD02/2020 EPI_ISL_407896 2020/1/30
C 190 BetaCov/Hong Kong/VM20001988/2020 EPI_ISL_412029 2020/1/
30
A 29095C 228 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC05/2020 EPI_ISL_412869 2020/1/30
A 29095C 229 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC06/2020 EPI_ISL_412870 2020/1/30
C 153 BetaCov/Italy/INMI1-cs/2020 EPI_ISL_410546 2020/1/31
A 29095C 230 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC07/2020 EPI_ISL_412871 2020/1/31
A 29095T 78 BetaCov/Japan/TY-WK-501/2020 EPI_ISL_408666 2020/1/
31
A 29095T 79 BetaCov/Japan/TY-WK-521/2020 EPI_ISL_408667 2020/1/
31
B derived 85 BetaCov/USA/WI1/2020 EPI_ISL_408670 2020/1/31
B derived 191 BetaCov/Hong Kong/VB20026565/2020 EPI_ISL_412030
2020/2/1
B ancestral 231 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC12/2020 EPI_ISL_412872 2020/2/
1
B derived 60 BetaCov/Singapore/3/2020 EPI_ISL_407988 2020/2/1
B derived 151 BetaCov/Singapore/11/2020 EPI_ISL_410719 2020/2/2
B derived 159 BetaCov/France/IDF0571/2020 EPI_ISL_411218 2020/2/
2
C 149 BetaCov/Singapore/8/2020 EPI_ISL_410714 2020/2/3
A 29095C 59 BetaCov/Belgium/GHB-03021/2020 EPI_ISL_407976 2020/2/3
C 146 BetaCov/Singapore/10/2020 EPI_ISL_410716 2020/2/4
C 150 BetaCov/Singapore/9/2020 EPI_ISL_410715 2020/2/4
A 29095C 143 BetaCov/Australia/QLD03/2020 EPI_ISL_410717 2020/2/
5
A 29095C 144 BetaCov/Australia/QLD04/2020 EPI_ISL_410718 2020/2/
5
B derived 256 BetaCov/China/IQTC01/2020 EPI_ISL_412966 2020/2/5
B derived 95 BetaCov/Taiwan/NTU02/2020 EPI_ISL_410218 2020/2/5
C 134 BetaCov/Singapore/5/2020 EPI_ISL_410536 2020/2/6
A 29095C 172 BetaCov/USA/CA7/2020 EPI_ISL_411954 2020/2/6
A 29095C 232 BetaCov/Korea/KCDC24/2020 EPI_ISL_412873 2020/2/6
C 175 BetaCov/Sweden/01/2020 EPI_ISL_411951 2020/2/7
A 29095C 270 BetaCov/Wuhan/HBCDC-HB-06/2020 EPI_ISL_412982 2020/2/7
B derived 133 BetaCov/Singapore/6/2020 EPI_ISL_410537 2020/2/9
C 212 BetaCov/England/03/2020 EPI_ISL_412116 2020/2/9
C 226 BetaCov/England/09c/2020 EPI_ISL_412116 2020/2/9
B derived 173 BetaCov/USA/CA8/2020 EPI_ISL_411955 2020/2/10
B derived 258 BetaCov/Japan/Hu_DP_Kng_19-020/2020 EPI_ISL_412968 2020/2/10
B derived 259 BetaCov/Japan/Hu_DP_Kng_19-027/2020 EPI_ISL_412969 2020/2/10
A 29095T 174 BetaCov/USA/TX1/2020 EPI_ISL_411956 2020/2/11
B derived 262 BetaCov/Italy/CDG1/2020 EPI_ISL_412973 2020/2/20
B ancestral 187 BetaCov/Hefei/2/2020 EPI_ISL_412026 2020/2/23
B derived 227 BetaCov/USA/CA9/2020 EPI_ISL_412862 2020/2/23
A 29095C 261 BetaCov/USA/WA2/2020 EPI_ISL_412970 2020/2/24
B derived 253 BetaCov/Germany/Baden-Wuerttemberg-1/2020 EPI_ISL_
412912 2020/2/25
B derived 263 BetaCov/Mexico/CDMX/InDRE_01/2020 EPI_ISL_412972
2020/2/27
B derived 265 BetaCov/Australia/NSW05/2020 EPI_ISL_412975 2020/2/28
C 273 BetaCov/Brazil/SPBR-02/2020 EPI_ISL_413016 2020/2/28
C 171 BetaCov/South Korea/SNU01/2020 EPI_ISL_411929 2020-01
【 在 cllearjks (cllearjks) 的大作中提到: 】
: 剑桥大学在PNAS发表论文。
: https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-
: provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0
: 武汉上传的数据主要关于B病毒的，A病毒的数据较少，C病毒没有；
: 而东亚各国和地区，日本，韩国，香港都有C病毒
: 美国澳洲主要为A病毒；
: 欧洲主要为C病毒。
: 病毒变异：A到B，B到C
: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: ...................
有什么证据说明A型B型没有爆发性，没有毒性？美国的A型病毒为什么没有传到欧洲去
，美国人和欧洲人都是白人吧。
【 在 Vorlon(伏龙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 中国政府的作为，可以理解为担心但不确定病毒来自武汉P4实验室。迅速封城军管实验
: 室，完全符合对付生物武器做法。
: 病毒能否爆发取决于毒性，而毒性依不同人群而不同，Spanish flu, SARS,
MERS 无不
: 如此。A型B型都无法在欧美中东爆发，导致爆发的是C型。
有什么证据说明A型B型没有爆发性，没有毒性？美国的A型病毒为什么没有传到欧洲去
，美国人和欧洲人都是白人吧。
【 在 Vorlon(伏龙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 中国政府的作为，可以理解为担心但不确定病毒来自武汉P4实验室。迅速封城军管实验
: 室，完全符合对付生物武器做法。
: 病毒能否爆发取决于毒性，而毒性依不同人群而不同，Spanish flu, SARS,
MERS 无不
: 如此。A型B型都无法在欧美中东爆发，导致爆发的是C型。
拿钱发帖的人连脑袋都不用拍
【 在 shorea(未注册用户) 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果。。。那么
: 如果。。。那么
: 标准的一拍脑袋。
这个逻辑是对的，夸一下。
【 在 Vorlon(伏龙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 简单，2019年7月生化武器基地Fort Detrick发生病毒泄露。只要意大利等各国
不论开
: 棺验尸也好，检验2019年得过流感人群的抗体也好，只要A型不存在于2019年7月以前，
: B型不存在于10月武汉世运会以前，C型不存在于2020年1月以前，那就真相大白。
A型毒性并不强，致死率不到1%，但Fort Detrick 所在马里兰和边州2019年冬是有小型爆发。A型必然被传到全世界，肯定有多处小型爆发，但所有国家都以为只是普通流感
。BC型完全不同。
SARS出现于2002-2003，感染死亡几乎完全限于ease asian。
石正丽组早于2004就开始冠状病毒研究
其后中美合作多年，2015年北卡Ralph Baric发表SHC014有结合和感染人类细胞能力的
研究结果
2019年7月生化武器基地Fort Detrick发生病毒泄露，基地附近为美国参加武汉军运会
的军人集训基地。8月基地被迫紧急关闭。
9月A型病毒开始在美国扩散。A型毒性只比四种流感通型略强。
10月美国约翰霍普金斯医学中心主办了一场名为案件201的瘟疫预演，15名各国政商医
届人物包括曾任中情局二把手的海恩斯 (Avril Haines)，及中国疾控中心主任高福。
10月18-27日，第七届世界军人运动会在武汉举行，B型病毒进入武汉。
11月病毒开始在武汉传播，美国情报局内部警告美国高层。
B型R0指数在2-3.8之间，比后来C型（指数5-6）偏低。
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/数据图表明C型（欧洲多国数据）从单
例扩展到一万需要1-1.5个月。武汉11-12月两月内人数达到数千，进入医院人数不明。
12月30日李文亮微信提醒同行注意保护。
被感染人数3-6天加倍，2020年一月初武汉作为交通枢纽春运人数增加，故3-4天即可翻番。1月23号封城时感染人数可达10万人左右。大量中国公民逃离武汉以至大陆，数目
不详。
美国2月4日开始禁航中国。然则B型中国患者已将病毒带到伊朗和南欧。
尽管新型冠状病毒变异比普通流感偏慢，2月B型病毒变异产生白人黑人皆易感的C型，
并由欧洲旅行人员带进美国。
3月美欧同时爆发。
【 在 guagua123 (Your Dad) 的大作中提到: 】
: 有什么证据说明A型B型没有爆发性，没有毒性？美国的A型病毒为什么没有传到欧洲去
: ，美国人和欧洲人都是白人吧。
:
: 中国政府的作为，可以理解为担心但不确定病毒来自武汉P4实验室。迅速封城军
: 管实验
:
: 室，完全符合对付生物武器做法。
:
: 病毒能否爆发取决于毒性，而毒性依不同人群而不同，Spanish flu, SARS,
: MERS 无不
:
: 如此。A型B型都无法在欧美中东爆发，导致爆发的是C型。
:
就看拿的是人民币还是美分了。
【 在 guagua123(Your Dad) 的大作中提到: 】
: 拿钱发帖的人连脑袋都不用拍
从中美两国的做法叔已经有答案了。。LOL
【 在 Vorlon(伏龙) 的大作中提到: 】
: 简单，2019年7月生化武器基地Fort Detrick发生病毒泄露。只要意大利等各国
不论开
: 棺验尸也好，检验2019年得过流感人群的抗体也好，只要A型不存在于2019年7月以前，
: B型不存在于10月武汉世运会以前，C型不存在于2020年1月以前，那就真相大白。
好奇，你说的要是事实。为什么以前没有大规模的死亡。
就我们感染不严重的州，开始4例是输入病例，纽约和意大利旅行史，开始家人朋友传
染上几个，过了几天开始传染社区，接着迅速死人新闻，半个月感染数字激增。
如果以前就存在的话，我们州咋没有短时间死亡这么多人，何况现在死亡大部分集中传染上的一个社区老人。以前咋不死。不太懂，这怎么解释。
唯一可以胡乱猜在美国起源，病毒开始不致命，流行也无所谓。但传武汉变异了新病毒，那这样武汉还是脱不了新病毒起源的帽子。
【 在 database (《※★※§Hey§※★※》) 的大作中提到: 】
: 过分解读了。不要看谁谁谁的烂文。没有实锤就是没有。
: 其实美国很可疑。 主要是面对土鳖指责，明明自己有很多流感研究的样品。就是不
测。
: 如果电子烟肺炎的样品测后报告打土鳖的脸多爽啊。
: 第二，西雅图的流感研究被叫停。这很心虚吗。
: 第三，CDC神秘的试剂盒失灵。
: 难怪别人会联想
: was
: the
你自己没看明白。美国大规模的type A and type C, 后者是美国欧洲大规模死亡的原
因，美国的是从意大利传过去的；而在武汉的主要是B， 和C一样是A的mutated
versions. A致死率不高，而B对于亚洲人致死率高，C对白人致死率高。
【 在 baobao1 (夜猫子) 的大作中提到: 】
: 好奇，你说的要是事实。为什么以前没有大规模的死亡。
: 就我们感染不严重的州，开始4例是输入病例，纽约和意大利旅行史，开始家人朋友传
: 染上几个，过了几天开始传染社区，接着迅速死人新闻，半个月感染数字激增。
: 如果以前就存在的话，我们州咋没有短时间死亡这么多人，何况现在死亡大部分集中传
: 染上的一个社区老人。以前咋不死。不太懂，这怎么解释。
: 唯一可以胡乱猜在美国起源，病毒开始不致命，流行也无所谓。但传武汉变异了新病毒
: ，那这样武汉还是脱不了新病毒typ起源的帽子。
: 测。
还是日本人了解五毛的智商：
a genetic bottleneck that occurs when, in the case of a virus, a new type is established from a small, isolated group of infections.
到底A源自何方？
好象有两种可能，
(1)源于武汉，由居于武汉的美国人传给美国，A在鳖国被共匪扼杀在摇篮，但是A奋力
抗争，其后代B在鳖国羞辱了共匪一把。
(2)源于美帝，由米国人带至武汉，可惜水土不服，百般无奈之下只好变异成B发扬光大。
版上有不少人说病毒先爆于武汉而且武汉所有亚型都具备所以必然起源于武汉，这种说法是没有道理的。这就好比说亚洲鲤鱼起源于美国一样荒谬。病毒在哪里爆发在哪里变异多只能说明那些地方适合百度高频复制，并不能说明那里就是病毒原发处。比如说始祖病毒完全可能是A并源于美帝，但是A相对温和，并且美帝地广人稀，所以传播速度相对慢，还有美帝对老人杀手根本就是姑息养奸的态度，实际上要不是B在鳖国爆发并且
共匪大打出手，美帝根本就不会研究什么病毒，只会感叹今年流感比去年还厉害，因为民众不知情没有恐慌，绝大多数就是静悄悄地死在家里，根本就不会引起医院超负荷。当A传到鳖国武汉后，由于武汉人口密集传播很快，可是A本来就相对温和很快就被小黄人免疫系统压制了，但是A也很快产生B并且成功本土化大爆发，然后一群小黄人傻乎乎地去研究，到处吓唬白大人，本来人家白大人哲学为不理睬就是不存在，跟无神论者不信则无有异曲同工之妙，可是你共匪一出手就是拖拉机，人家就算天绝也没法trumpet
你，只好跟副牌，能不窝火么？
去年一些肺炎病人的CT照片跟新冠症状一模一样，美帝根本就不敢复查，还有去年军方病毒所突然关闭，也不敢解释，附近两所养老院的不明肺炎也不敢复查， 还有去年突
然搞什么新冠病毒疫情演习， 等等， 美国太可疑了，但是美国自己不查，也不让外人来查，就屏蔽了病毒起源的追溯，可以混淆视听。
【 在 database (《※★※§Hey§※★※》) 的大作中提到: 】
: 过分解读了。不要看谁谁谁的烂文。没有实锤就是没有。
: 其实美国很可疑。 主要是面对土鳖指责，明明自己有很多流感研究的样品。就是不
测。
: 如果电子烟肺炎的样品测后报告打土鳖的脸多爽啊。
: 第二，西雅图的流感研究被叫停。这很心虚吗。
: 第三，CDC神秘的试剂盒失灵。
: 难怪别人会联想
: was
: the
【 在 dell00 (嘻嘻哈哈) 的大作中提到: 】
: 去年一些肺炎病人的CT照片跟新冠症状一模一样，美帝根本就不敢复查，还有去年军方
: 病毒所突然关闭，也不敢解释，附近两所养老院的不明肺炎也不敢复查， 还有去年突
: 然搞什么新冠病毒疫情演习， 等等， 美国太可疑了，但是美国自己不查，也不让外人
: 来查，就屏蔽了病毒起源的追溯，可以混淆视听。
: 测。
还有赵发言人一个推，还是用“might”美帝反应那么大，直接总统回怼，是不是有点
做贼心虚
"后来中国下令销 毁了武汉病毒最早期的样本，这些都是事实"他妈的，事实在哪儿呢
？光凭你一张嘴就成事实了？
【 在 guagua123 (Your Dad) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这论文怎么就得出病毒起源于美国的结论了？最原始的A在武汉发现，后来中国下令销
: 毁了武汉病毒最早期的样本，这些都是事实，要有说服力那应该完整公布武汉最早期的
: 毒株，可惜这些证据都不存在了被共产党下令销毁了。
: 用脑子想想，如果病毒最初在美国爆发的，那么美国的医护早就倒下一大批了吧，美国
: 是如何隐瞒的？如果是美国最先爆发，那么以美国和欧洲的联系紧密程度，欧洲也应该
: 早就大爆发了吧，如果美国政府隐瞒，那么欧洲日本韩国都在隐瞒？目前所有的证据都
: 证明了日韩和欧洲的病毒是武汉传过去
作为中国人，gre逻辑考满分也拿来吹，傻逼
现在有人说可能是东亚国家打了卡介苗，特别是年轻人，因为疫苗效果还在，很少感染，年纪越大，残余效果越差。西方国家，没打卡介苗的普遍死亡率高。美国也一样。新移民在交绿卡申请的时候，都又打了一次。当时光顾着交钱，也不知到打了啥疫苗，今天翻出来一看，TB也是其中之一
我曾执行过NIAID的项目。属于Dr. Fauci 的大团队。 有些人喜欢断章取义，不多说。我只谈一下我的想法。A 是源头。 样品中中国和欧美各占半壁江山。源头至少有一半
可能性来源于美欧
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................
你这是用屁股解读....
【 在 dlc(dalaocu) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我真是服了
: 这种歪了心眼的解读，到底有何价值？
7million-grant-Wuhan-lab-experimented-coronavirus-source-bats.html
最新消息，美国政府给了武毒所钱让抓蝙蝠和搞研究，这就大大提高了了我猜测的第一种情况的可能性：
病毒来源是抓到武汉的云南蝙蝠，由于武毒所和美国的合作，该病毒也被送到美国研究，后来在美国泄露，造成病毒在美国人群流传，美国研究所的关闭，养老院神秘肺炎，电子烟肺炎现在看来都是近乎实锤的证据了。然后美国到武汉的人将身体中A类带回武
汉，传递少量原始A类给当地人，但传递受阻，激发奠基者效应，先在武汉美国人群中
发展成A类变种，然后再由此变异成武汉主流B类在武汉当地人中大量传播。这即可解释为啥武汉美国人中有A变种，也可以解释为啥武汉当地人中是B多A少。
【 在 jhe123 (jhe) 的大作中提到: 】
: 虽然我不是搞生物或者医学方面的，但凭俺当年GRE逻辑满分的水平，读这么一篇论文
: 还是绰绰有余的，现在俺来解读分析一下，免得一帮拿钱发帖的家伙在此混淆视听。: Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one : discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” –
was
: present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus : type.
: 这段首先说明A类新冠是最早类型，因为它和蝙蝠身上的病毒最接近。武汉有这类病毒
: ，但不是主流。
: Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in
: Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from
the
: ...................