As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】 : As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( : CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, : 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died : 2009 flu pandemic in the United States : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States : 约有5900万人感染了H1N1病毒，有26.5万人住院，导致12,000例死亡
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】 : 如果这次是2％的死亡率，则2％x 5900 w = 118 w
3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3 In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]
Initial estimate was 2% Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed. Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that:
We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]).The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO. It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization [1][2]. Mortality Rate as of Feb. 20 in China (findings from the Report of the WHO- China Joint Mission) The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO [12] is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that "The Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting crude CFR early in an epidemic" (see also our discussion on: How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak). Here are its findings on Case Fatality Ratio, or CFR (the mortality rate):
"As of 20 February, 2,114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR: 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease).
The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).
作出来预测的这个美国专家是内布拉斯加大学医学中心教授詹姆斯·劳勒，他给出来了预计说是美国会有9600万人确认，其中有48万人不治身亡，而住院的人数高达480万。
至于这个专家所给出来预估的理由是什么好不知道，说白了就是张嘴就来，别说预估
9600万人确诊，就算是9亿6000万确认也可以，反正没有什么证据。
虽然他的这个预估可能，有点不太负责任，但是美国政府在对于疫情防护的问题上面说实话做的也真不是特别的好。连个口罩都不让戴，被传染了这算谁的啊？典型的没脑子。
不可能那么多的
国内媒体肯定喜欢这个信息
【 在 qingjiaowo (qingjiaowo) 的大作中提到: 】
: 作出来预测的这个美国专家是内布拉斯加大学医学中心教授詹姆斯·劳勒，他给出来了
: 预计说是美国会有9600万人确认，其中有48万人不治身亡，而住院的人数高达480万。
: 至于这个专家所给出来预估的理由是什么好不知道，说白了就是张嘴就来，别说预估: 9600万人确诊，就算是9亿6000万确认也可以，反正没有什么证据。
: 虽然他的这个预估可能，有点不太负责任，但是美国政府在对于疫情防护的问题上面说
: 实话做的也真不是特别的好。连个口罩都不让戴，被传染了这算谁的啊？典型的没脑子
: 。
真480万住院，死亡肯定不止48万。不是线性的。
【 在 MCundoubted(关中) 的大作中提到: 】
: 国内媒体肯定喜欢这个信息
9600万算啥，如果说9600亿能让川普下台，这些人渣会毫不犹豫说9600亿美国人感染
9600万算啥，如果说9600亿能让川普下台，这些左叉人渣会毫不犹豫说9600亿美国人感染
【 在 qingjiaowo (qingjiaowo) 的大作中提到: 】
: 作出来预测的这个美国专家是内布拉斯加大学医学中心教授詹姆斯·劳勒，他给出来了
: 预计说是美国会有9600万人确认，其中有48万人不治身亡，而住院的人数高达480万。
: 至于这个专家所给出来预估的理由是什么好不知道，说白了就是张嘴就来，别说预估: 9600万人确诊，就算是9亿6000万确认也可以，反正没有什么证据。
: 虽然他的这个预估可能，有点不太负责任，但是美国政府在对于疫情防护的问题上面说
: 实话做的也真不是特别的好。连个口罩都不让戴，被传染了这算谁的啊？典型的没脑子
: 。
As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (
CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus,
265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died
2009 flu pandemic in the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States
约有5900万人感染了H1N1病毒，有26.5万人住院，导致12,000例死亡
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (
: CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, : 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died
: 2009 flu pandemic in the United States
: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States
: 约有5900万人感染了H1N1病毒，有26.5万人住院，导致12,000例死亡
1.2 w / 5900 w = 0.02%
器人也这么关心？
过几天再把死亡人数下调，得，大号流感实锤
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1.2 w / 5900 w = 0.02%
如果这次是2％的死亡率，则2％x 5900 w = 118 w
彰显美帝制度优越。
这种张嘴胡说的，在中国已经在牢里了。
美帝的医生和生物千老都没有为政府隐瞒的动机，对于他们，说得越严重，对自己利益就越大，我看过千老的paper,都是先把鞭炮说成原子弹，然后说自己的拆弹工作如何重要，然后就是要钱。
【 在 qingjiaowo (qingjiaowo) 的大作中提到: 】
: 作出来预测的这个美国专家是内布拉斯加大学医学中心教授詹姆斯·劳勒，他给出来了
: 预计说是美国会有9600万人确认，其中有48万人不治身亡，而住院的人数高达480万。
: 至于这个专家所给出来预估的理由是什么好不知道，说白了就是张嘴就来，别说预估: 9600万人确诊，就算是9亿6000万确认也可以，反正没有什么证据。
: 虽然他的这个预估可能，有点不太负责任，但是美国政府在对于疫情防护的问题上面说
: 实话做的也真不是特别的好。连个口罩都不让戴，被传染了这算谁的啊？典型的没脑子
: 。
如果9600万人确诊, 不进行积极治疗的话, 会有20%人转重症, 就是 1920万人, 按重症60%的死亡率算, 就是会有 1152万人死去.
我去. 尼玛.
【 在 qingjiaowo (qingjiaowo) 的大作中提到: 】
: 作出来预测的这个美国专家是内布拉斯加大学医学中心教授詹姆斯·劳勒，他给出来了
: 预计说是美国会有9600万人确认，其中有48万人不治身亡，而住院的人数高达480万。
: 至于这个专家所给出来预估的理由是什么好不知道，说白了就是张嘴就来，别说预估: 9600万人确诊，就算是9亿6000万确认也可以，反正没有什么证据。
: 虽然他的这个预估可能，有点不太负责任，但是美国政府在对于疫情防护的问题上面说
: 实话做的也真不是特别的好。连个口罩都不让戴，被传染了这算谁的啊？典型的没脑子
: 。
据说资源不够的话
是百分之十
说明你傻逼呗。
敢说严重的马上就丢工作了
【 在 mynight(一束星光) 的大作中提到: 】
: 彰显美帝制度优越。
: 这种张嘴胡说的，在中国已经在牢里了。
: 美帝的医生和生物千老都没有为政府隐瞒的动机，对于他们，说得越严重，对自己利益
: 就越大，我看过千老的paper,都是先把鞭炮说成原子弹，然后说自己的拆弹工作如何重
: 要，然后就是要钱。
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果这次是2％的死亡率，则2％x 5900 w = 118 w
3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of
March 3
In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO
Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.” [13]
Initial estimate was 2%
Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) had mentioned 2% as a
mortality rate estimate in a press conference on Wednesday, January 29 [1][2] and again on February 10. However, on January 29 WHO specified that this
was a very early and provisional estimate that might have changed.
Surveillance was increasing, within China but also globally, but at the time it was said that:
We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."[1][2]).The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those
who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the
World Health Organization [1][2].
Mortality Rate as of Feb. 20 in China (findings from the Report of the WHO-
China Joint Mission)
The Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission published on Feb. 28 by WHO [12]
is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. The report notes that "The
Joint Mission acknowledges the known challenges and biases of reporting
crude CFR early in an epidemic" (see also our discussion on: How to
calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak). Here are its findings on
Case Fatality Ratio, or CFR (the mortality rate):
"As of 20 February, 2,114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases have died (crude fatality ratio [CFR: 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were
identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease).
The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
发信人: kbdoctor (kbdoctor), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: WHO投降了！
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 9 14:32:21 2020, 美东)
这帖子沉得好快啊。
发信人: kbdoctor (kbdoctor), 信区: Military
标 题: Re: WHO投降了！
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 9 14:33:14 2020, 美东)
正经八百的说事实有点不受待见啊。
哈佛大學利普西奇教授預測，一年之內，全球40%至70%的人將感染到武汉新冠肺炎。
換言之，人人都可能感染。
不過，他也指出，由於大多數感染者都屬輕症，甚至可能不會出現病徵，像有些人對流感的反應一樣，每年流感季都可能染上，甚至連自己也不知道已感染流感。