"I work daily with some of the world's most infectious and fatal diseases. Reading internal reports and also stuff available on the internet (papers, new articles), I'm becoming extremely concerned we are massively unprepared for the next epidemic.
People imagine that any kind of epidemic that occurs today can be more or less mitigated through modern public health infrastructure, stocks of vaccines and antivirals, and basic quarantining measures.
The issue is that in modern, densely populated cities, a sufficiently advanced pathogen would be capable of infecting the vast majority of inhabitants in weeks, before any health measures could have an effect. The population density is enough that current quarantining techniques used in cases like smallpox would be completely ineffective. Antivirals have historically proven ineffective and hard to disseminate while our current vaccine stocks might not work at all.
Currently computer simulations indicate that a dangerous enough pathogen could effectively destroy a city like Los Angeles in a few months. " Destroyed" in the sense that emergency services are shut down, medical services are shut down, all economic output ceases and over 30-60% of the population is wiped out.
In short, a small nation-state or even well-funded terrorist organization could easily reduce the US to the state of a third world nation with. Yet no one except my colleagues seems to give a fuck.
CMC launches medical team to control novel coronavirus
The Logistic Support Department of China's Central Military Commission (CMC) said Friday that it had organized a professional medical team to prevent and control the spread of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus.
The commission said it made the decision after receiving important instruction from Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the CMC.
。
下注不是写得是东北大学么？如何是CDC了？
东北大学？ 哪一个
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 。
CDC采用了
【 在 DSJS (DSJS) 的大作中提到: 】
: 下注不是写得是东北大学么？如何是CDC了？
西北大学认为感染人数很可能被低估了，最有可能是4000左右,that's it
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 。
confirmed cases根本不靠谱。
人到医院都不确诊，死了就烧了。这些人就不算了？
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 。
4000是正态分布情况。看分布是 positive skewed.
【 在 monocreek (飞翔亲爹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 西北大学认为感染人数很可能被低估了，最有可能是4000左右,that's it
26/4000=0.65%
严重符合我老计算的死亡率0.5%-1%。
i approve this message！
只是个数学模型
【 在 JSIS (专和小人作对) 的大作中提到: 】
: confirmed cases根本不靠谱。
: 人到医院都不确诊，死了就烧了。这些人就不算了？
武汉政府就是个joke，靠！
你是指正态分布吧，这是正常的，因为感染人数不可能是负的
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 4000是状态分布情况。看分布是 positive skewed.
要算likelihood，得用binomial distribution吧。
【 在 dragonfly (小蜻蜓-原创成语：翻盖疾潜。) 的大作中提到: 】
: 26/4000=0.65%
: 严重符合我老计算的死亡率0.5%-1%。
: i approve this message！
你应该提供原始链接
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: CDC采用了
你啊，还是老实点吧，不然对你没什么好处
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 要算likelihood，得用binomial distribution吧。
叔又不是专家
【 在 DSJS (DSJS) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你应该提供原始链接
顶点4000怎么来的？觉得任意值都行
提供链接很难么？
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 叔又不是专家
是有很多assumptions，所以只是一个猜测
【 在 yanzhengman () 的大作中提到: 】
: 顶点4000怎么来的？觉得任意值都行
【 在 monocreek (飞翔亲爹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 是有很多assumptions，所以只是一个猜测
只搜到这个
【 在 DSJS (DSJS) 的大作中提到: 】
: 提供链接很难么？
Genomic analysis of nCoV spread. Situation report 2020-01-23.
https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-01-23?n=0
Nextstrain
Real-time tracking of pathogen evolution
https://nextstrain.org/
美国大学现在应该没有Genomic data，不知道他们的依据是什么
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: Genomic analysis of nCoV spread. Situation report 2020-01-23.
: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-01-23?n=0
【 在 yanzhengman () 的大作中提到: 】
: 顶点4000怎么来的？觉得任意值都行
感觉不靠谱，灌水文章
【 在 monocreek (飞翔亲爹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 是有很多assumptions，所以只是一个猜测
【 在 monocreek (飞翔亲爹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 美国大学现在应该没有Genomic data，不知道他们的依据是什么
感觉不靠谱，灌水文章
【 在 monocreek (飞翔亲爹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 是有很多assumptions，所以只是一个猜测
【 在 yanzhengman () 的大作中提到: 】
: 感觉不靠谱，灌水文章
这个图用了三个传播速度的假设，没有用genomic data
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
"I work daily with some of the world's most infectious and fatal diseases.
Reading internal reports and also stuff available on the internet (papers,
new articles), I'm becoming extremely concerned we are massively unprepared for the next epidemic.
People imagine that any kind of epidemic that occurs today can be more or
less mitigated through modern public health infrastructure, stocks of
vaccines and antivirals, and basic quarantining measures.
The issue is that in modern, densely populated cities, a sufficiently
advanced pathogen would be capable of infecting the vast majority of
inhabitants in weeks, before any health measures could have an effect. The
population density is enough that current quarantining techniques used in
cases like smallpox would be completely ineffective. Antivirals have
historically proven ineffective and hard to disseminate while our current
vaccine stocks might not work at all.
Currently computer simulations indicate that a dangerous enough pathogen
could effectively destroy a city like Los Angeles in a few months. "
Destroyed" in the sense that emergency services are shut down, medical
services are shut down, all economic output ceases and over 30-60% of the
population is wiped out.
In short, a small nation-state or even well-funded terrorist organization
could easily reduce the US to the state of a third world nation with. Yet no one except my colleagues seems to give a fuck.
Want to know more?"
和我的简单计算十分吻合http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Military/55649145.html
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 。
Ebola Vaccine Pioneer Jokes About Culling Population With GMO Virus
https://humansarefree.com/2016/02/ebola-vaccine-pioneer-jokes-about-culling-population-with-gmo-virus.html
2015-16 Wuhan BLS4 lab constructed
2017 Maryland-based Bioweapons Contractor predicts Wuhan virus outbreak
2018 Wuhan BLS4 lab begins operating
2018 Bill & Melinda throw a virus drill
2019 OCT - Bill & Melinda throw a Coronavirus drill
2019 DEC - Wuhan Coronavirus outbreak begins (symptoms appear 2020)
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-
most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
http://chinaplus.cri.cn/news/china/9/20180107/74886.html
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/
恭喜你跻身英国科学家的行列。
【 在 Caravel(克拉维尔) 的大作中提到: 】
: 和我的简单计算十分吻合
: http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Military/55649145.html
garbage in garbage out.用假数据怎么能做出真结果，这不是搞笑么
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 。
模型
【 在 daemonself (mit行为艺术专业博士后导师) 的大作中提到: 】
: garbage in garbage out.用假数据怎么能做出真结果，这不是搞笑么
大兄弟，你坐过modelling么？我老做了一辈子modelling, 没有真实数据没有办法建模，武汉现在肯定已经远超4000了，好不好，不要凹了
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 模型
尼玛臭老九都出来抢credit抢名声了
CMC launches medical team to control novel coronavirus
The Logistic Support Department of China's Central Military Commission (CMC) said Friday that it had organized a professional medical team to prevent
and control the spread of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus.
The commission said it made the decision after receiving important
instruction from Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the CMC.
少个零
至少少一个零.....
这么平整光滑的曲线，就两个参数
【 在 beijingren5 (吃喝) 的大作中提到: 】
: 。