WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump on Wednesday named a strident China critic, Peter Navarro, to lead a new White House office overseeing American trade and industrial policy, in the latest sign that Mr. Trump is moving to reshape relations between the world’s two largest economies.
Mr. Trump also said the billionaire investor Carl Icahn would serve as a special adviser on regulatory issues, another area of economic policy in which the president-elect wants big changes.
The appointments reflect Mr. Trump’s ambition to increase economic growth by hammering at what he regards as critical roadblocks. He has promised to expand American manufacturing by reducing federal regulation and by preventing what he has described as unfair competition from Chinese manufacturers. The choices of Mr. Navarro and Mr. Icahn also reflect Mr. Trump’s manifest preference for advisers who are loyal, and who do not have government experience.
Mr. Navarro, 67, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, who holds a doctorate from Harvard, is the only credentialed economist in Mr. Trump’s inner circle. He is the author of a series of jeremiads, including a 2012 documentary film, “Death by China,” in which an animation of a Chinese knife stabs a map of the United States and causes blood to run freely. Mr. Navarro has said that China is effectively waging an economic war by subsidizing exports to the United States and impeding imports from it. Mr. Trump, influenced by Mr. Navarro’s work, described this on the campaign trail as “the greatest theft in the history of the world.”
GRAPHIC Donald Trump Is Choosing His Cabinet. Here’s the Latest List. A list of possibilities and appointees for top posts in the new administration.
OPEN GRAPHIC Mr. Trump has said he will persuade Beijing to change its policies by applying pressure, including designating China a currency manipulator; enforcing existing trade laws more vigorously; and, if necessary, imposing a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports. In a statement, Mr. Trump described Mr. Navarro as “a visionary economist” and said he would “develop trade policies that shrink our trade deficit, expand our growth and help stop the exodus of jobs from our shores.”
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A wide range of economists have warned that curtailing trade with China would damage the American economy, forcing consumers to pay higher prices for goods and services. Experts on manufacturing also doubt that the government can significantly increase factory employment, noting that mechanization is the major reason fewer people are working in factories.
Mr. Navarro’s appointment reinforces a basic division among Mr. Trump’s economic advisers. The people he has chosen to oversee trade policy, Mr. Navarro and Wilbur Ross, another billionaire investor, both favor increased trade restrictions. But Mr. Trump’s broader circle of advisers is dominated by proponents of free trade, including Mr. Icahn; Gary D. Cohn, the president of Goldman Sachs, who will lead the National Economic Council; Rex W. Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, who was tapped for secretary of state; and Gov. Terry Branstad of Iowa, Mr. Trump’s choice for ambassador to China. Mr. Trump is also considering the appointment of Larry Kudlow, a strong proponent of trade, to lead his Council of Economic Advisers.
Mr. Trump has also promised to edit the federal rule book, removing what he has described as overly burdensome restrictions. He said last month that the government would eliminate two regulations for each new rule it put on the books. For Mr. Icahn, who will not draw a salary, the new role formalizes his relationship with Mr. Trump, whom he advised on economic issues throughout the campaign. Mr. Icahn, 80, has no experience in government; like a growing number of Mr. Trump’s appointees, he was prized for his success as a businessman.
Mr. Icahn, a brash New York billionaire who vocally supported Mr. Trump during the campaign, made his fortune as a “corporate raider,” buying stakes in corporations and demanding changes to reward shareholders. “Carl was with me from the beginning, and with his being one of the world’s great businessmen, that was something I truly appreciated,” Mr. Trump said in a statement. “His help on the strangling regulations that our country is faced with will be invaluable.”
Navarro is a retarded bigot. He's been consistently wrong about China, Chinese economy and housing market for the last 15 years. He knows nothing about China culture or history, but is a white supremacist.
政策！
Navarro是主攻中国经济和贸易的经济学者。他反共的激烈程度，比一般的反对派厉害
得多、也深入得多。两年前他曾自筹经费拍了Death by China，里面显示他对中共对外对内的各种猫腻门儿清，绝不是对中国雾里看花的普通“中国通”。比老朽一代的基辛格眼光毒辣许多。
Navarro的贸易理念就是杜绝贸易赤字，也就是杜绝对手的顺差。这和中共在经济上几
乎没有调和余地（但是美国可能在政治上配合交换，例如中共坚守人民币官方汇率、忍受美国单方面超高关税，而美国支持习包子对内巩固权力）。
=====================================
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/21/us/politics/peter-navarro-carl-icahn-trump-china-trade.html?_r=0
WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump on Wednesday named a strident China critic, Peter Navarro, to lead a new White House office overseeing
American trade and industrial policy, in the latest sign that Mr. Trump is
moving to reshape relations between the world’s two largest economies.
Mr. Trump also said the billionaire investor Carl Icahn would serve as a
special adviser on regulatory issues, another area of economic policy in
which the president-elect wants big changes.
The appointments reflect Mr. Trump’s ambition to increase economic growth
by hammering at what he regards as critical roadblocks. He has promised to
expand American manufacturing by reducing federal regulation and by
preventing what he has described as unfair competition from Chinese
manufacturers. The choices of Mr. Navarro and Mr. Icahn also reflect Mr.
Trump’s manifest preference for advisers who are loyal, and who do not have government experience.
Mr. Navarro, 67, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, who
holds a doctorate from Harvard, is the only credentialed economist in Mr.
Trump’s inner circle. He is the author of a series of jeremiads, including a 2012 documentary film, “Death by China,” in which an animation of a
Chinese knife stabs a map of the United States and causes blood to run
freely. Mr. Navarro has said that China is effectively waging an economic
war by subsidizing exports to the United States and impeding imports from it. Mr. Trump, influenced by Mr. Navarro’s work, described this on the
campaign trail as “the greatest theft in the history of the world.”
GRAPHIC
Donald Trump Is Choosing His Cabinet. Here’s the Latest List.
A list of possibilities and appointees for top posts in the new
administration.
OPEN GRAPHIC
Mr. Trump has said he will persuade Beijing to change its policies by
applying pressure, including designating China a currency manipulator;
enforcing existing trade laws more vigorously; and, if necessary, imposing a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports. In a statement, Mr. Trump described
Mr. Navarro as “a visionary economist” and said he would “develop trade
policies that shrink our trade deficit, expand our growth and help stop the exodus of jobs from our shores.”
Continue reading the main story
ADVERTISEMENT
Continue reading the main story
A wide range of economists have warned that curtailing trade with China
would damage the American economy, forcing consumers to pay higher prices
for goods and services. Experts on manufacturing also doubt that the
government can significantly increase factory employment, noting that
mechanization is the major reason fewer people are working in factories.
Mr. Navarro’s appointment reinforces a basic division among Mr. Trump’s
economic advisers. The people he has chosen to oversee trade policy, Mr.
Navarro and Wilbur Ross, another billionaire investor, both favor increased trade restrictions. But Mr. Trump’s broader circle of advisers is dominated by proponents of free trade, including Mr. Icahn; Gary D. Cohn, the
president of Goldman Sachs, who will lead the National Economic Council; Rex W. Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, who was tapped for
secretary of state; and Gov. Terry Branstad of Iowa, Mr. Trump’s choice for ambassador to China. Mr. Trump is also considering the appointment of Larry Kudlow, a strong proponent of trade, to lead his Council of Economic
Advisers.
Mr. Trump has also promised to edit the federal rule book, removing what he has described as overly burdensome restrictions. He said last month that the government would eliminate two regulations for each new rule it put on the books. For Mr. Icahn, who will not draw a salary, the new role formalizes
his relationship with Mr. Trump, whom he advised on economic issues
throughout the campaign. Mr. Icahn, 80, has no experience in government;
like a growing number of Mr. Trump’s appointees, he was prized for his
success as a businessman.
Mr. Icahn, a brash New York billionaire who vocally supported Mr. Trump
during the campaign, made his fortune as a “corporate raider,” buying
stakes in corporations and demanding changes to reward shareholders. “Carl was with me from the beginning, and with his being one of the world’s great businessmen, that was something I truly appreciated,” Mr. Trump said in a statement. “His help on the strangling regulations that our country is
faced with will be invaluable.”
尼克松才是最反共的。
纸上谈兵
他很难被认为是研究贸易的专家。在academic里面，估计他的名气一般，所以他才会在社会上提出非常惊讶的观点，主要目的是吸引眼球，博得注意力，这个和trump一样，
必须偏激观点才能赢得观众。
只要在经济上配合美国，美国连沙特国王都支持了这么多年。
Navarro这个人非常务实，而且是绝对的真正的中国通。对中共“崛起”看得很透，绝
不是一般坐在办公室里研究中共统计局数字和人民日报海外版文章的一般大学教授。
中国学生是世界上做好的
45%（算法不同数字不一样，相信这就是川普想对中共征收45%惩罚关税的原因）。
而且中共是世界主要经济体里除了印度外最闭关锁国的。最赚钱的领域（基建、金融、电信、能源等等）没有一个对外资开放。按说现在（2016年12月15日之后）应该全面开放的，但是中共根本不理这茬。美欧日也懒得打官司。
非市场经济
惩罚关税
贸易管制
。。。。。。
具体我就不懂了。也许您更懂国际贸易。
我只是比较好奇， 美国有什么办法能支持习近平巩固权力。
中国是米国最大贸易伙伴，trump嘴炮而已，来真的，他就是自杀。
无论是川普还是Navarro的举动都表明贸易战必然要打。但他们从没说过跟中共打贸易
战会很轻松。
会伤到它们。
至于靠出口退税甚至骗税过日子的，死也就死了。
据说还有经济因素导致获利没这么高甚至是损失的，但是川普和Navarro似乎不采信。
3000亿美元的利润，主要将由5000万蓝领工人获得，也就是每人每年多挣6000美元。
而受损失的，显然是各大公司，苹果、GM等等。
事实上，断绝中共的顺差，本质上是劫富济贫，把跨国大公司的利润里的3000亿美元拿出来，分给蓝领红脖。
是的，我相信川普如果简单加关税，这些公司是有对策的。哪怕川普加到450%的关税，中共只要多印点人民币以各种理由补贴明星出口企业，一样成交。据说深圳已经有说法，要给华为员工低价住宅，就是最近的例子。
问题是这正是Navarro特别点出的猫腻。他现在进了白宫，而且是白宫里唯一的经济学
者、贸易工业政策主管，是否对此毫无准备，如果有准备又有什么办法，拭目以待吧。
另外，就算这些明星企业能生存，“靠出口退税甚至骗税过日子的”死光了，中国梦也就歇菜了。举国之力只能支撑少数几个华为这样的样板。多了吃不消。按照人口比例，中国要赶上韩国，需要40个三星、LG这样的超级大企业。华为才是三星的1/4。从哪里
再来
159个华为呢（垄断国企中石油中石化以及大银行不算，这些不算负分就不错了）？
国内专门做出口的企业多了去了， 它们可没你说的“国内大单”。
（另外，我不认为给华为国内大肥单有什么不对。南韩经济起飞时候，也是这么搞的，但是中国这样一个人口大国，不能光靠明星企业。中小企业死光了，少数几个明星样板只能宣传用，对经济整体、尤其是就业，帮助太小）
你对中国制造业的总体情况看来没有什么了解。
啥中国看起来平均关税略高。但外国得到了中国这个大市场，应该说他们已经得到足够的trade off了。再说，美国专门针对中国的纺织业进行配额限制，中国没有专门针对
美国的配额限制
西方人很好笑，认为资本主义和市场经济是理所当然的人类共同目标，是一一种所谓的道德归属。指责中国不是市场经济似乎是在指责某一个人道德不好。
但对于咱们来说市场经济只是手段，不是目标。咱们的目标是中国的复兴和国家的繁荣富强。为了这个目标，咱们不谈主意，什么主意我们都拿来用。一个国家当然要有强大的政府和宏观调控，当然可以一定程度上支配自己的贸易和货币政策。
我觉得从深层次讲，美国所代表的是一个对用规则和合同来规范的陌生人社会。而中国数代表的是一个人情社会。这也就是为什么美国讲中国不重视规则。中国重视的是中国国家利益，因为我们认得是人 不是毫无感情的制度。
究竟得是何种精神力量，才会相信换这么个人就倒反天纲了？
奥巴马政府原来都是傻子？
所以如果限制贸易，交易双方都会存在经济损失，
在经济上基本是双输，
哪怕在账面上，也肯定不是个零和，
不是中国少多少，美国就能多多少的。
随着科技的进步，人类社会的管理者从整体和细节上都得以对社会经济的实际运行状况获得更精准更及时的信息，从而拿出更有针对性的决策和政策方案，这就是人类社会的计划经济体制的雏形。典型比如沃尔玛，依赖大数据技术，可以实时了解全球所有分店任何一种商品的销售情况，获得这些信息可以极大提高商品订购、配送、库存体系的效率，做到精准零售。这种跨国大公司体系内部的计划经济扩散开来，就会发展成跨国大公司联盟的计划经济体系，进而发展成主权国家参与的全球计划经济体系。
在苏联解体后，经过20多年的全球化和信息技术的高速发展，现在实际已经到了全球化2.0的阶段了。这是一个不可逆的过程，全球从经济和文化层面上越来越成为一个整体，
所有主要经济体都不可能关起门来发展。出于短期内改善就业的考虑，trump新政府会
推行一定程度的贸易保护主义，但是绝无可能发展成贸易战。美国闭关锁国的结果是推动中国和欧洲俄罗斯迅速加强经济金融甚至军事层面的密切联系，美帝将迅速失去对世界局势的掌控，美国各大跨国公司的利益将失去保障。美国的精英阶层，和各大跨国公司的老总们，是不会任由这种局面出现的。美国总统的安保都是有限的，得罪整个精英阶层的下场看看肯尼迪就知道了。
satisfied decision. 同理现在”自由贸易“对美国经济产生了负面作用原因是世界上不存在理想的"自由贸易"，奥巴马左派思维是典型的乌托邦不管是经济问题还是移民种族问题都采用了不切实际的政策结果带来了深重的灾难
最近这5年的中国膨胀的太厉害，与此同时欧美的经济在08之后长时间的停滞。
所以欧美的政治经济学家早就开始反思欧美提倡多年的民主政治，包括经济体制的合理性。
你是五毛党吧，完全不能否认的是，中国这20年来的飞速增长很大程度是靠欧美中产的生活止步不前，甚至大规模倒退换来的。全球化的过程就是发达国家贫富差距增大的过程。
这次全球化的set back,你可以认为是欧美的民粹作祟。但更直接的经济方面的原因，
显然是随着中国中产阶级的兴起，加上极高的在中国贸易的附加成本，资本已经意识到在中国生产带来的利益增值还不如撤回发达国家，考虑到政治成本等等。
持Trump帮助国内治理雾霾！
来的"
这个奇葩结论是怎么得出来的？
生产力转移呀，基本制造业全转移去中国了。
美国红脖子完全享受不到全球化的红利。
不然你以为为啥川普会上台？
啥都不懂就老老实实看帖子， 别装蒜。
自由市场是西方尤其右派保守人士的一种信仰，不单单对中国，他们在自己国内也反对过多政府调控。指责贸易伙伴不够自由市场，不是什么道德问题，而是实实在在利益考量: 你想啊，你这边以自由市场为主流，对方国家控制想什么时候变招就什么时候变招，这样的商贸经济竞争对谁有利？ 你说我们中国想怎么弄你们管不着，那么西方就会
反驳管不着那么你就不要来国际社会一起玩儿，你自己继续关起门自己嗨 。。。你就
不要改革开放嘛。一句话，自由市场经济是当前世界主流的游戏规则，你自己不够自由市场，当然有犯规嫌疑。当年 WTO 谈判中国的纠缠也主要是在这种融合和通融的讨价
还价上。
中国其实在往更自由贸易在走。而美国往保护主义走。
西方的所谓自由贸易本身就是哄人的。这些协定是利益集团博弈的结果，自由也是为财团定制的。
贸易是好事。但是自由贸易原教旨就是牺牲国家和人民的利益，来追求精英阶层的自私。
古罗马帝国就是因为贵族（跨国大公司）大量使用外国奴隶（中共的P民），导致帝国
内部大量中产阶级破产，先是民主政体垮台（精英阶层垄断宣传教育选举），依靠帝国政体苟延残喘四百多年，最后彻底解体。
所谓美国和中共做生意双赢，是充分就业前提的某种现象。如果美国国内不充分就业，减少从中共那里进口，转移3000亿美元给蓝领红脖，虽然中共+美国总体不是经济最优
，但是美国整体获利（把失业推给中共）。
3000亿美元当然不是在美国内部平均分布。如果1000万蓝领红脖每人多挣5万美元、另
200万富人（苹果、GM等等）每人少挣10万美元，在美国当前政体下的最后投票结果，
很可能就是前者上台。这也的确是现实中发生的事情。
当然这么做也有很大风险。关键是最终谁出这笔钱。如果美国大公司把工作转移回美国国内后，大幅度提价，等于美国国内消费者出了这3000亿，改革就失败了。如果美国大公司自己利润减少而不提价，那么等于大公司出了这3000亿，改革成功。即使改革成功，副作用也很明显，例如股市长远看会跌一些。
要说信仰，咱们更重视国家复兴，人民幸福，国泰民安，老有所养。咱们都没说这些是“信仰”，他们一个自由贸易就拉倒吧。
现在明摆着的，就是咱们的方法融合了中央集权和市场逻辑的一部分，能够更好的发展生产力，也保护国家利益。
历史会证明，这样的方法才会在全球化当中屹立不倒。要不然，川普也不会效法中国的务实主义。
一句话，大家都参与全球化，但谁能站得稳，就看谁能够用全球化为国家利益服务。就这么简单。
总体看，跟30年前比，中共的贸易体制是越来越自由的。但是川普代表的西方反共势力已经失去耐心。
Chinese economy and housing market for the last 15 years. He knows nothing
about China culture or history, but is a white supremacist.
我对问题的方法就是，实践。咱们试试这个，看是否解决问题。从实践到抽象。
中国的管制的确有缺点，那任何制度都有。但是，你不能不说，他也起到了保护的作用。比如，外国人不能在中国炒房子，不然，咱们国家遭殃的都是底层。
中国也不会在战略领域过多开放外国资本。因为我们太熟悉西方资本殖民中国的惨痛历史，对资本家从不抱希望不抱幻想，只能利用，合理奖赏。在能源，石油，媒体，金融，我们都是永远的主流。绝没有外国资本喧宾夺主的可能。
但是在其他领域，就不一样了。咱们要广开言路，对创新加以令人兴奋的奖赏，对高教创新人才培养加以闪亮的慷慨投资，对企业家，年轻人才多多关照。对文创产业，大力鼓励。
我们的未来有赖于民族资本，民族自己的核心技术和自主知识产权。
我认为，中国不可在军事上太多，否则会影响贸易关系。
对付川普在美国国内并不容易。如果美国人还买帐建制派，他们也就不会选了川普。
中国人民的的创造力是无穷的。
现在机器人干活 capacity constraints 减小，不一定需要自由贸易
当然这个观点需要考证 也不是大部分人马上能接受的
现在中国制造的成本已经远远高于其他很多的国家，东南亚，印度，非洲，南美。
这么多的选择，看接下来10年包括中国所谓的国有资本在内的全世界的money怎么走就
好了。
除非你是跨国公司总裁，或者永远有20岁年轻人的学习能力，
不然，你迟早是全球化浪潮的牺牲品。
友好了。
现在中国通过插管吸血变富了，开始不吊美国，中国人也开始瞧不起美国了。可是普通百姓从来没有想过，中国能有今天， 完全是因为美国让你吸了15年血。好了，美国终
于有人要结束这一切了。
美帝真是活雷锋啊 LOL
英美两国，乃至整个自由世界的中产阶级，才是世界和平发展的最主要力量。全球化就是史无前例的劣币驱逐良币。劣等人驱逐良民。
从我的亲身体验来看，跟其他国家相比起来的危险性在于
1. 体量太大，无论有多大的制造需求，都可以满足，基本上可以消化全世界的制造需
求，只要你允许的话。所以，对全世界发达国家的产业工人都是很大的危险。
2. 跟现在的发达资本主义国家比起来，这些年来，中国已经变成了社会主义的反面，
贫富差距极大，工人的权利完全得不到保障，从另外一个层面降低了中国制造业的成本。不过因为平均工资的增高，以及中国政府rmb对内贬值，对外增值n年的举措，现在这个成本优势已经快没了。
3. 中国社会的基本组成机构是家庭，不是一家三口，是我们上一辈父母兄弟姐妹组成
的大家庭，这种大家庭的存在很大程度缓解了社会阶级对立的危险。具体说来，一人吃饱，全家不饿。只要有一个当上local小官，基本一个大家子生活都不用太操心了。当
然，这个现象的存在也还是基于生活成本不高的前提。
4. 中国人『受教育』程度非常非常高，对于生活的紧迫感和上进心全世界第一。但这
个问题很容易是双刃剑，这种对生活的追求也正是中国干什么事情都走捷径，强调短频快的主要原因。没有潜心搞研究的耐心。
不料苏联经验很可能是历史的偶然。不但中国人没觉醒，阿拉伯人也没觉醒。眼看阿拉伯人已经打上门，川普代表的白右确实后悔了，要及时转舵掉头。