Only about 1% of all traders make money

wmwmw
楼主 (未名空间)
https://tradeciety.com/24-statistics-why-most-traders-lose-money/

95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related
statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves this number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much
higher. In the following article we’ll show you 24 very surprising
statistics economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data
and the performance of traders. Some explain very well why most traders lose money.



80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1
Among all day traders, nearly 40% day trade for only one month. Within
three years, only 13% continue to day trade. After five years, only 7%
remain. 1
Traders sell winners at a 50% higher rate than losers. 60% of sales are winners, while 40% of sales are losers.2
The average individual investor underperforms a market index by 1.5% per year. Active traders underperform by 6.5% annually. 3
Day traders with strong past performance go on to earn strong returns in the future. Though only about 1% of all day traders are able to predictably profit net of fees. 1
Traders with up to a 10 years negative track record continue to trade.
This suggests that day traders even continue to trade when they receive a
negative signal regarding their ability. 1
Profitable day traders make up a small proportion of all traders – 1.6% in the average year. However, these day traders are very active –
accounting for 12% of all day trading activity. 1
Among all traders, profitable traders increase their trading more than
unprofitable day traders. 1
Poor individuals tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on
lottery purchases and their demand for lottery increases with a decline in
their income. 4
Investors with a large differential between their existing economic
conditions and their aspiration levels hold riskier stocks in their
portfolios. 4
Men trade more than women. And unmarried men trade more than married men. 5
Poor, young men, who live in urban areas and belong to specific minority groups invest more in stocks with lottery-type features. 5
Within each income group, gamblers underperform non-gamblers. 4
Investors tend to sell winning investments while holding on to their
losing investments. 6
Trading in Taiwan dropped by about 25% when a lottery was introduced in April 2002. 7
During periods with unusually large lottery jackpot, individual investor trading declines. 8
Investors are more likely to repurchase a stock that they previously
sold for a profit than one previously sold for a loss. 9
An increase in search frequency [in a specific instrument] predicts
higher returns in the following two weeks. 10
Individual investors trade more actively when their most recent trades
were successful.11
Traders don’t learn about trading. “Trading to learn” is no more
rational or profitable than playing roulette to learn for the individual
investor.1
The average day trader loses money by a considerable margin after
adjusting for transaction costs.
[In Taiwan] the losses of individual investors are about 2% of GDP.
Investors overweight stocks in the industry in which they are employed.
Traders with a high-IQ tend to hold more mutual funds and larger number of stocks. Therefore, benefit more from diversification effects.


Conclusion: Why Most Traders Lose Money Is Not Surprising Any more

After going over these 24 statistics it’s very obvious to tell why traders fail. More often than not trading decisions are not based on sound research or tested trading methods, but on emotions, the need for entertainment and
the hope to make a million dollars in your underwear. What traders always
forget is that trading is a profession and requires skills that need to be
developed over years. Therefore, be mindful about your trading decisions and the view you have on trading. Don’t expect to be a millionaire by the end of the year, but keep in mind the possibilities trading online has.

YWY

是我们的参与,才成就了那1%的成功者。

所以,我们这99%,才是股市里真正的英雄。
visit

如果货币供应恒定的情况下, 我相信90%的人无法打败SPY.
但是由于2008以来美联储狂印钞, unlimited QE, 钱印太多了股市只能暴涨, 盈利的人很多。其实是由于通货膨胀。

【 在 wmwmw (wmw) 的大作中提到: 】
: https://tradeciety.com/24-statistics-why-most-traders-lose-money/
: 95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related
: statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves
this
: number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much
: higher. In the following article we’ll show you 24 very surprising
: statistics economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data : and the performance of traders. Some explain very well why most traders
lose
: money.
:
: 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1
: ...................

daokechuan

我们都努力做好分母
wmwmw

我来科普一下为什么trading这么难。

版上的人都以为,trading难是因为无法预测市场未来走势。
版上有些人热衷于预测大盘,还有一大堆支持者。
我跟你们说没用的。即使你预测大盘准确率有80%,你还是赚不了钱。
你去赌场玩轮盘赌,38个数字你每次压35个,每次赢得概率有90%以上,但是最后你还
是要输给赌场。为什么?因为数学期望。有概率没有数学期望,你还是没用的。
前一段时间老美traders在一个股坛上统计前一段时间星期天晚上期指高开的概率有87%。这个概率应该能稳赚了吧?非也。
假设你10次里有9次高开,另一次因为出了坏消息低开200点。你9次赚的钱还抵不上那
一次亏的。所以你这个87%的概率根本不能保证你赚钱。

像赌场里21点,这种叫投注式bet。这种bet每次你可以下注你总资金里的一小部分。比如你赌注一万,你每次只下注一百,这样如果你有办法拿到高概率你就能赢赌场。因为你每次只输一百,你还有足够的钱再下99次。这就是为什么有人能用21点赢赌场。

但是炒股这种叫本金式bet。你买进后搞不好一次你全部本金都会输光。你不会像在赌
场那样还有另外的99次。假设你同样有一万本金。同时你有80%的概率。
如果每5次你赢了4次,每次赢一千。输的那次你本金全陪进去,最后你还是要见外婆。你有80%概率你一样要见外婆。也就是说,炒股你没有办法把你的风险控制在每次1%。
每次你的本金都有全亏光的风险。所以在本金式bet你必须设止损。而你设了止损后,
你的概率就不再是80%,可能只有40%。因为你80%概率中的一些情况是先跌再升,而这
一跌就把你的止损打掉了。所以即使你有80%的概率,你还是赚不了钱,除非你不设止
损。
就像上面提到老美有87%的概率,但是他无法设止损。所以87%概率也只能看看而已。
所以trading最难的是确定两点:一个是买进点,一个是卖出点。有了这两点,你才能
实现你的概率。我们做daytrading的,每天都有很多机会,我们知道是大概率的。80%
以上的概率每天都有。但是大家都不清楚如何去确定这两点。设止损的话,你就不再有大概率。
不设止损,你每次都要冒外婆的风险。
这个可以说是世界难题。要完美解决这个难题,可以说是诺贝尔奖级别的难度。那1%赚钱的traders,他们也只能找到部分地,不完美的办法。

你们看youtube上一大堆讲股的,谁能预先给出两点?没有。他要是能给出两点,他就
不用上youtube讲股。所以他们只能叫股评家。

版上哪位能预先给出两点?我不相信本版有人能做到。

c
cfgatw

炒古1%的赢家赢在卖出点。没人能赢买入点。另外买入点,相比不是很重要
明白上面这句话的,都是TOP 20% .

【 在 wmwmw (wmw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我来科普一下为什么trading这么难。
: 版上的人都以为,trading难是因为无法预测市场未来走势。
: 版上有些人热衷于预测大盘,还有一大堆支持者。
: 我跟你们说没用的。即使你预测大盘准确率有80%,你还是赚不了钱。
: 你去赌场玩轮盘赌,38个数字你每次压35个,每次赢得概率有90%以上,但是最后你还
: 是要输给赌场。为什么?因为数学期望。有概率没有数学期望,你还是没用的。
: 前一段时间老美traders在一个股坛上统计前一段时间星期天晚上期指高开的概率有
87%
: 。这个概率应该能稳赚了吧?非也。
: 假设你10次里有9次高开,另一次因为出了坏消息低开200点。你9次赚的钱还抵不上那
: 一次亏的。所以你这个87%的概率根本不能保证你赚钱。
: ...................

meiyoutu

不是说10%吗?7亏2平1赢?
【 在 wmwmw (wmw) 的大作中提到: 】
: https://tradeciety.com/24-statistics-why-most-traders-lose-money/
: 95% of all traders fail” is the most commonly used trading related
: statistic around the internet. But no research paper exists that proves
this
: number right. Research even suggests that the actual figure is much, much
: higher. In the following article we’ll show you 24 very surprising
: statistics economic scientists discovered by analyzing actual broker data : and the performance of traders. Some explain very well why most traders
lose
: money.
:
: 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. 1
: ...................

w
wavelet58

应该说只有1%的人挣的比较多,要说小钱应该很多人都能做到

meiyoutu

古板99%都是挣钱的吧,因为古板人是筛选过的。
wmwmw

进点同样重要。越早发现短期趋势,越早进入,你这一次就赢得越多,或者输的越少。卖出点不是更重要,而是更难确定。买进的pattern你可以预先研究好,并且等待你最
有把握的时机再进去。但是卖出点你很难预先研究好,所以很难卖在理想的点位。
卖出比买进需要更高的功力。
【 在 cfgatw (cfgatw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 炒古1%的赢家赢在卖出点。没人能赢买入点。另外买入点,相比不是很重要
: 明白上面这句话的,都是TOP 20% .
: 87%

c
cfgatw

1%的赢家,买入点也不会很差,只能这么讲
我说的买入点没人能赢的意思是,任何人99%的时候,买不到最低点。操作更重要。操
作更重要的意思是,卖出点决定了你长期来讲,赚不赚钱。

【 在 wmwmw (wmw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 进点同样重要。越早发现短期趋势,越早进入,你这一次就赢得越多,或者输的越少。
: 卖出点不是更重要,而是更难确定。买进的pattern你可以预先研究好,并且等待你最
: 有把握的时机再进去。但是卖出点你很难预先研究好,所以很难卖在理想的点位。
: 卖出比买进需要更高的功力。

wmwmw

人家这是直接从broker统计的数据。
1%是按长期算,而且是指短线交易。
你短期内赚钱,或者是抓长线赚钱,都不在他这个统计之内。

wmwmw

买在最低,卖在最高,那不叫技术,那叫运气。

好的交易者,不是买最低点,而是争取买短期趋势最早确定的那点。
同样,卖出也是争取卖在最早看出短期趋势变化的那一点。
这两点都离最低最高点差很远。

【 在 cfgatw (cfgatw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1%的赢家,买入点也不会很差,只能这么讲
: 我说的买入点没人能赢的意思是,任何人99%的时候,买不到最低点。操作更重要。操
: 作更重要的意思是,卖出点决定了你长期来讲,赚不赚钱。

c
cfgatw

1%的赢家的操作: 80%的时候是止损。

【 在 wmwmw (wmw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 买在最低,卖在最高,那不叫技术,那叫运气。
: 好的交易者,不是买最低点,而是争取买短期趋势最早确定的那点。
: 同样,卖出也是争取卖在最早点,而是在看出短期趋势变化的那一点。
: 这两点都离最低最高点差很远。

wmwmw

按百分比止损是普通人的方法,不是高手的方法。

【 在 cfgatw (cfgatw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 1%的赢家的操作: 80%的时候是止损。

c
cfgatw

这就是所以说,为什么99%的人赢不了

80%的止损率能让正常的人想要自杀
但是80%止的损,都比不过剩下20%赢的多。


【 在 wmwmw (wmw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 按百分比止损是普通人的方法,不是高手的方法。

WLion

this statistic is for gamblers