The key is that SP500 has NOT bought these shares yet. Once SP500 decides to include Tesla into its index, it will need to fill in its Tesla position in a timely fashion, which will post a sudden and urgent demand of 18% of Tesla's float shares.
Note that the video also talks about the demand of Tesla shares from those ETFs and institutional funds who benchmark to SP500, which could be up to another 25% of Tesla's float shares. (The video did acknowledge that some of those ETFs and institutions might have Tesla shares already. So this demand is up to 25% of the float.)
别琢磨了，花街肯定比你聪明，不会等到大家都想进地时候才进。 【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : The key is that SP500 has NOT bought these shares yet. Once SP500 decides to : include Tesla into its index, it will need to fill in its Tesla position in : a timely fashion, which will post a sudden and urgent demand of 18% of : Tesla's float shares. : Note that the video also talks about the demand of Tesla shares from those : ETFs and institutional funds who benchmark to SP500, which could be up to : another 25% of Tesla's float shares. (The video did acknowledge that some of : those ETFs and institutions might have Tesla shares already. So this demand : is up to 25% of the float.)
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : The key is that SP500 has NOT bought these shares yet. Once SP500 decides to : include Tesla into its index, it will need to fill in its Tesla position in : a timely fashion, which will post a sudden and urgent demand of 18% of : Tesla's float shares. : Note that the video also talks about the demand of Tesla shares from those : ETFs and institutional funds who benchmark to SP500, which could be up to : another 25% of Tesla's float shares. (The video did acknowledge that some of : those ETFs and institutions might have Tesla shares already. So this demand : is up to 25% of the float.)
First, there is evidence that the impact of being added to the index is weaker than it once was. Some of the literature that I reviewed indicated abnormal returns of something like 7% from days -10 to 0 while my analysis shows a meager 1%.
Second, fund managers are well aware of index front running and some have changed their behavior to compensate. Some accumulate slowly well before or after the stock has joined the index to lower their trading costs at the expense of higher tracking error.
Still, looking at volume and intraday price data, there are still a great deal of fund managers who buy in the few minutes immediately prior to the stock being added. Their rationale is to minimize tracking error and just deliver the index return regardless of high trading costs. For some stocks, the volume on this day can be 50 times greater than average and enough capital passively tracks the S&P 500 that fund managers need to purchase something like 10% of a stock's market capitalization in just a few minutes.
The fact that fund managers are able to do this with just modest slippage means that informed traders have become well coordinated in supplying liquidity in those crucial few minutes. Informed traders have already accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers.
Third, it seems like it's difficult to profit by buying the stock immediately after the announcement. Announcements for the S&P 500 are made after the market close, and the stock price predictably increases sharply in after hours trading in response to an announcement that the stock will be added. Unless you have a low latency algorithm, it is difficult to trade this profitably because the immediate after hours movement comprises the majority of the increase in the price prior to being added to the index.
"Informed traders have already accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers."
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】 : 别想当然，这玩意早被花街研究透了，甚至还有策略专门做空新加入SP的股票： : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4009991-index-front-running-what-happens-: when-stock-is-added-to-index : First, there is evidence that the impact of being added to the index is : weaker than it once was. Some of the literature that I reviewed indicated : abnormal returns of something like 7% from days -10 to 0 while my analysis : shows a meager 1%. : Second, fund managers are well aware of index front running and some have : changed their behavior to compensate. Some accumulate slowly well before or : after the stock has joined the index to lower their trading costs at the : ...................
你看懂他说的是啥意思了么？ 【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : 下面这句话恰恰验证了割指数基金韭菜的说法。花姐哄抬股价，已在车里的小三就可以 : 跟着割韭菜。 : "Informed traders have already accumulated the stock long before the stock : has been added and are able to profit by supplying liquidity to these fund : managers." : or
Still, looking at volume and intraday price data, there are still a great deal of fund managers who buy in the few minutes immediately prior to the stock being added. Their rationale is to minimize tracking error and just deliver the index return regardless of high trading costs. For some stocks, the volume on this day can be 50 times greater than average and enough capital passively tracks the S&P 500 that fund managers need to purchase something like 10% of a stock's market capitalization in just a few minutes.
不用啊，街上圈子里的都是好朋友。 The fact that fund managers are able to do this with just modest slippage means that informed traders have become well coordinated in supplying liquidity in those crucial few minutes. Informed traders have already accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers. 【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】 : 你是说同一家基金公司先囤好再自家和自家换手？ : 养老金那种咋换手
two words from your quote: one is "accumulate" and then the other is "profit".
这不就是我们刚刚说的mm囤货，然后抬高股价，卖给基金经理割他们韭菜嘛，好朋友也照割不误。
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】 : 不用啊，街上圈子里的都是好朋友。 : The fact that fund managers are able to do this with just modest slippage : means that informed traders have become well coordinated in supplying : liquidity in those crucial few minutes. Informed traders have already : accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to: profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers.
谈不上割不割，做生意就是今天我照顾你明天你照顾我，韭菜还是散户。 【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : two words from your quote: one is "accumulate" and then the other is " profit : ". : 这不就是我们刚刚说的mm囤货，然后抬高股价，卖给基金经理割他们韭菜嘛，好朋友也 : 照割不误。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】 : two words from your quote: one is "accumulate" and then the other is " profit : ". : 这不就是我们刚刚说的mm囤货，然后抬高股价，卖给基金经理割他们韭菜嘛，好朋友也 : 照割不误。
视频做的很仔细，很有科普价值（至少对小蝌蚪我来说），逻辑也很清楚。按视频里的计算，特斯拉（如果）加入SP500会直接引发的购买量至少是特斯拉floating shares的18%（26米林购买量out of 147密林floating shares）。
大家自己看视频吧，YMYD.
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/JN8PNPBkaWc
加入SP就算是短期利好出尽了。
必须买...
这18%的就锁定不会动了 流动性变差
相当于supply大幅降低 你说呢
估计九月股东大会要拆股了
我肯定投赞成
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 加入SP就算是短期利好出尽了。
已经price in这个利好了。
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这18%的就锁定不会动了 流动性变差
: 相当于supply大幅降低 你说呢
: 估计九月股东大会要拆股了
: 我肯定投赞成
你说一周从1000涨到1800是为啥呢？
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这18%的就锁定不会动了 流动性变差
: 相当于supply大幅降低 你说呢
: 估计九月股东大会要拆股了
: 我肯定投赞成
The key is that SP500 has NOT bought these shares yet. Once SP500 decides to include Tesla into its index, it will need to fill in its Tesla position in a timely fashion, which will post a sudden and urgent demand of 18% of
Tesla's float shares.
Note that the video also talks about the demand of Tesla shares from those
ETFs and institutional funds who benchmark to SP500, which could be up to
another 25% of Tesla's float shares. (The video did acknowledge that some of those ETFs and institutions might have Tesla shares already. So this demand is up to 25% of the float.)
【 在 pharma (Panda) 的大作中提到: 】
: 已经price in这个利好了。
别琢磨了，花街肯定比你聪明，不会等到大家都想进地时候才进。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: The key is that SP500 has NOT bought these shares yet. Once SP500 decides to
: include Tesla into its index, it will need to fill in its Tesla position in
: a timely fashion, which will post a sudden and urgent demand of 18% of
: Tesla's float shares.
: Note that the video also talks about the demand of Tesla shares from those
: ETFs and institutional funds who benchmark to SP500, which could be up to : another 25% of Tesla's float shares. (The video did acknowledge that some of
: those ETFs and institutions might have Tesla shares already. So this
demand
: is up to 25% of the float.)
这不是秃子头上的虱子明摆着的吗？没法price in。短期内肯定是暴涨！
因为大量index fund和ETF要进货，囤积特斯拉的要慢慢出货，直到进货稳定了，就pia 叽了。这波赌的就是这个！index必须买，多高的价格都得买！
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
are you hinting that sp500 has already purchased 26 million tsla shares? if this is the case then sp500 should be called sp501.
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 别琢磨了，花街肯定比你聪明，不会等到大家都想进地时候才进。
: to
: in
: of
: demand
花姐早囤好货了，就等着卖给index fund呢！index fund就是韭菜接盘！不接也得接，谁叫你是indexfund呢！
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 别琢磨了，花街肯定比你聪明，不会等到大家都想进地时候才进。
: to
: in
: of
: demand
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
那流动性差了，以后跌起来也会更吓人？
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这18%的就锁定不会动了 流动性变差
: 相当于supply大幅降低 你说呢
: 估计九月股东大会要拆股了
: 我肯定投赞成
确实是
现在看着就想把小散户都整出去收够筹码
【 在 skybluewei (weilan) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这不是秃子头上的虱子明摆着的吗？没法price in。短期内肯定是暴涨！
: 因为大量index fund和ETF要进货，囤积特斯拉的要慢慢出货，直到进货稳定了，就
pia
: 叽了。这波赌的就是这个！index必须买，多高的价格都得买！
先要涨到你怀疑人生
【 在 threepig () 的大作中提到: 】
: 那流动性差了，以后跌起来也会更吓人？
那当然！但反手可以做空再赚一笔！特斯拉这一笔够花姐吃半年的！
【 在 threepig () 的大作中提到: 】
: 那流动性差了，以后跌起来也会更吓人？
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
没人care小散，小散只是casualties，赚点赔点影响不了大局。这次的收割对象就是
index fund，或者说买index fund的小散。。。这就是赤裸裸的阳谋，但你一点办法都没有。
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 确实是
: 现在看着就想把小散户都整出去收够筹码
: pia
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
那就是跟着冲 不要买指数基金嘛 98
【 在 skybluewei (weilan) 的大作中提到: 】
: 没人care小散，小散只是casualties，赚点赔点影响不了大局。这次的收割对象就是: index fund，或者说买index fund的小散。。。这就是赤裸裸的阳谋，但你一点办法都
: 没有。
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.5
买特斯拉，割指数基金的韭菜，呵呵。
YMYD.
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那就是跟着冲 不要买指数基金嘛 �9�8
光知道这个没用啊。有没有以前加入SP500的股票的performance的统计？
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: The key is that SP500 has NOT bought these shares yet. Once SP500 decides to
: include Tesla into its index, it will need to fill in its Tesla position in
: a timely fashion, which will post a sudden and urgent demand of 18% of
: Tesla's float shares.
: Note that the video also talks about the demand of Tesla shares from those
: ETFs and institutional funds who benchmark to SP500, which could be up to : another 25% of Tesla's float shares. (The video did acknowledge that some of
: those ETFs and institutions might have Tesla shares already. So this
demand
: is up to 25% of the float.)
别想当然，这玩意早被花街研究透了，甚至还有策略专门做空新加入SP的股票：https://seekingalpha.com/article/4009991-index-front-running-what-happens-
when-stock-is-added-to-index
First, there is evidence that the impact of being added to the index is
weaker than it once was. Some of the literature that I reviewed indicated
abnormal returns of something like 7% from days -10 to 0 while my analysis
shows a meager 1%.
Second, fund managers are well aware of index front running and some have
changed their behavior to compensate. Some accumulate slowly well before or after the stock has joined the index to lower their trading costs at the
expense of higher tracking error.
Still, looking at volume and intraday price data, there are still a great
deal of fund managers who buy in the few minutes immediately prior to the
stock being added. Their rationale is to minimize tracking error and just
deliver the index return regardless of high trading costs. For some stocks, the volume on this day can be 50 times greater than average and enough
capital passively tracks the S&P 500 that fund managers need to purchase
something like 10% of a stock's market capitalization in just a few minutes.
The fact that fund managers are able to do this with just modest slippage
means that informed traders have become well coordinated in supplying
liquidity in those crucial few minutes. Informed traders have already
accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to
profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers.
Third, it seems like it's difficult to profit by buying the stock
immediately after the announcement. Announcements for the S&P 500 are made
after the market close, and the stock price predictably increases sharply in after hours trading in response to an announcement that the stock will be
added. Unless you have a low latency algorithm, it is difficult to trade
this profitably because the immediate after hours movement comprises the
majority of the increase in the price prior to being added to the index.
下面这句话恰恰验证了割指数基金韭菜的说法。花姐哄抬股价，已在车里的小三就可以跟着割韭菜。
"Informed traders have already accumulated the stock long before the stock
has been added and are able to profit by supplying liquidity to these fund
managers."
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 别想当然，这玩意早被花街研究透了，甚至还有策略专门做空新加入SP的股票：
: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4009991-index-front-running-what-happens-: when-stock-is-added-to-index
: First, there is evidence that the impact of being added to the index is
: weaker than it once was. Some of the literature that I reviewed indicated : abnormal returns of something like 7% from days -10 to 0 while my analysis
: shows a meager 1%.
: Second, fund managers are well aware of index front running and some have : changed their behavior to compensate. Some accumulate slowly well before
or
: after the stock has joined the index to lower their trading costs at the
: ...................
你看懂他说的是啥意思了么？
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: 下面这句话恰恰验证了割指数基金韭菜的说法。花姐哄抬股价，已在车里的小三就可以
: 跟着割韭菜。
: "Informed traders have already accumulated the stock long before the stock
: has been added and are able to profit by supplying liquidity to these fund
: managers."
: or
那篇文章没有解释实质性的问题。。。index fund是passive fund，fund manager没有义务和责任去计较它的performance，反正我是按照市价来买的，跟着大盘买卖，说不
好都没有manager，都是机器人在买卖。。。。相反，那些active fund manager才有动力去衡量啥时候买啥时候卖。
特斯拉的问题是加入太晚了，已经是第十大公司了，它的加入不是说占1/500的问题。
FAANMG已经占到SP500的块1/4了，TSLA要占到2-3%，对于权重index fund，会是一笔很大的买入。
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你看懂他说的是啥意思了么？
这个我没有，以前也没怎么关心过谁加入SP500。
我知道股市里理论可能经不起实践的考验（挺官话的，呵呵），但如果SP500的买入机
制确实如视频所说，那么，理论上讲，这个强大的demand一定会催动股价高升（升多少应该又是仁者见仁智者见智了），即便是短期的高升。
【 在 pharma (Panda) 的大作中提到: 】
: 光知道这个没用啊。有没有以前加入SP500的股票的performance的统计？
: to
: in
: of
: demand
我对那句话的理解：MM先吸足筹码，然后等着割指数基金的韭菜。
你是怎么理解那句话的呢？
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你看懂他说的是啥意思了么？
难道MM卖给指数基金股票的价格不受供求关系的影响？或者说即便MM高价卖给指数基金但这些交易的价格是私下的不会影响我们小散看盘时的股价？如果不是的话，那就会引发股价上涨，一在车上的小散也可以顺便割指数基金的韭菜。这是我的理解。
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你看懂他说的是啥意思了么？
很多fund manager根本不会去市场上现买，是和机构直接换手。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我对那句话的理解：MM先吸足筹码，然后等着割指数基金的韭菜。
: 你是怎么理解那句话的呢？
真会有天上掉馅饼的好事么。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: 难道MM卖给指数基金股票的价格不受供求关系的影响？或者说即便MM高价卖给指数基金
: 但这些交易的价格是私下的不会影响我们小散看盘时的股价？如果不是的话，那就会引
: 发股价上涨，一在车上的小散也可以顺便割指数基金的韭菜。这是我的理解。
你是说同一家基金公司先囤好再自家和自家换手？
养老金那种咋换手
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 很多fund manager根本不会去市场上现买，是和机构直接换手。
下面是你引的文章里的一段，说明至少有一部分index funds会直接从市场上买（
regardless of high trading costs），这就会催动股价上涨。
我很好奇，如果SP500决定纳入特斯拉，它需要的26迷恋的股票，会和那些机构以直接
换手的方式获得？那些机构都是好心的雷锋吗？
Still, looking at volume and intraday price data, there are still a great
deal of fund managers who buy in the few minutes immediately prior to the
stock being added. Their rationale is to minimize tracking error and just
deliver the index return regardless of high trading costs. For some stocks,
the volume on this day can be 50 times greater than average and enough
capital passively tracks the S&P 500 that fund managers need to purchase
something like 10% of a stock's market capitalization in just a few minutes.
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 很多fund manager根本不会去市场上现买，是和机构直接换手。
不用啊，街上圈子里的都是好朋友。
The fact that fund managers are able to do this with just modest slippage
means that informed traders have become well coordinated in supplying
liquidity in those crucial few minutes. Informed traders have already
accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to
profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers.
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你是说同一家基金公司先囤好再自家和自家换手？
: 养老金那种咋换手
two words from your quote: one is "accumulate" and then the other is "profit".
这不就是我们刚刚说的mm囤货，然后抬高股价，卖给基金经理割他们韭菜嘛，好朋友也照割不误。
【 在 FoodGod (饭中淹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不用啊，街上圈子里的都是好朋友。
: The fact that fund managers are able to do this with just modest slippage
: means that informed traders have become well coordinated in supplying
: liquidity in those crucial few minutes. Informed traders have already
: accumulated the stock long before the stock has been added and are able to: profit by supplying liquidity to these fund managers.
谈不上割不割，做生意就是今天我照顾你明天你照顾我，韭菜还是散户。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: two words from your quote: one is "accumulate" and then the other is "
profit
: ".
: 这不就是我们刚刚说的mm囤货，然后抬高股价，卖给基金经理割他们韭菜嘛，好朋友也
: 照割不误。
指数基金还是要接盘 再被做空就是了 买被动基金就是被人牵着走
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: two words from your quote: one is "accumulate" and then the other is "
profit
: ".
: 这不就是我们刚刚说的mm囤货，然后抬高股价，卖给基金经理割他们韭菜嘛，好朋友也
: 照割不误。
嗯，等index fund买完了再反手做空又是一大笔，可能赚得更多。
【 在 YWY (夜未央) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我对那句话的理解：MM先吸足筹码，然后等着割指数基金的韭菜。
: 你是怎么理解那句话的呢？
换手也是卖那家赚，买的那家亏啊。。。卖的那家是active managed，买的那家是
passive managed，左手倒右手，左手赚，右手亏啊。赚的那家拿bonus，亏的那家是
passive，手续费一分不少啊。
【 在 cocoon757 (Cindi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你是说同一家基金公司先囤好再自家和自家换手？
: 养老金那种咋换手