The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000, once again indicating the high premium drivers give Tesla. Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S, which begins at $75,000 for the 70D version.
【 在 FangQ (光芒之神) 的大作中提到: 】 : a fully loaded tesla model S costs around $150k. : according to this post, the average selling price of a Model S is around $: 107k : https://forums.tesla.com/fr_CH/forum/forums/predictions-pricing-model-s- 2017 : -and-beyond#comment-512716
看你引用的那段,有些Tesla S买家会买平均3万块的车子,不是全部买家的平均 Tesla S买家平均年龄四十几岁,男性,收入二十几万,cross shop类似价格的E class/5 series S class买家平均年龄六十几岁,收入40万
【 在 felixcat(Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 tesla论坛里阿猫阿狗随便写句话就当事实了......这个如何? https://www.thestreet.com/story/13198798/2/the-average-tesla-driver- isnt-who -youd-expect.html The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000, once again indicating the high premium drivers give Tesla. Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S, which begins at $75,000 for the 70D version. 根据这个调查,Tesla的用户一般是买平均3万块钱车的那个群体。Tesla跟主流 豪华车 ...................
【 在 pandamalone (0000~史前圣灵猫熊) 的大作中提到: 】 model s价格区间是五万多到十万出头 现在s class起价就是九万六,区间一直到二十多万的S65AMG 这俩车根本不适合一起比较。 Tesla 最多只能跟 E series 或 BMW 的 5 series比。 跟 S series和 7 series 比, 它要小多了,内设也差劲多了。
【 在 FangQ (光芒之神) 的大作中提到: 】 who would this is why I don't feel like my time is rewarding when debating with you. because when people say A, you say B, when people say B, you move to C ...: let's make it clear, I did not label Model S as luxury sedan (I don't own : one either), if you disagree, go argue with every editor involved in the below reports, it is meaningless to convince me what I would like to believe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2016/10/tesla-model-s-is-the-best-selling-luxury-sedan-in-the-us.html http://fortune.com/2016/02/11/tesla-best-selling-luxury-sedan/ ...................
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 我只不过陈述一个调查的统计结果而已,不要这么紧张。 stop flattering yourself, man, it is getting funny. whatever "stat" you stated was irrelevant to the argument being discussed. is "car A's owners would have bought a cheaper car than car B's owner if they did not buy A or B" has anything to do with "car A and B do not belong to the same class"? no! what kind of logic was that? even the argument "car A's selling price is cheaper than B" or "car A's owner's average income is lower than B's" can not prove anything. so, in the end, I don't think you even know what you are trying to argue.
【 在 FangQ (光芒之神) 的大作中提到: 】 stop flattering yourself, man, it is getting funny. whatever "stat" you stated was irrelevant to the argument being discussed. is "car A's owners would have bought a cheaper car than car B's owner if they did not buy A or B" has anything to do with "car A and B do not belong to the same class"? no! what kind of logic was that? even the argument "car A's selling price is cheaper than B" or "car A's owner's average income is lower than B's" can not prove anything. so, in the end, I don't think you even know what you are trying to argue.
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 看两款车是不是真正意义上“同级别”,跟某些业余水平的编辑/媒体的文章毫无关系 a "class/segment" means it is a range, it is not a point. you may define every car as a class if its own, but it is not the "class" referred in these articles. believe whatever you like. 。最有说服力的是,要看所有具备同等经济实力的消费者买车的时候,心理上到底有没 有很严肃地cross shop这两款车。假如你连我想讨论什么都弄不清楚,那你还回什么贴 呢? 通过问卷调查是目前最有效的。显然,调查结果显示,被调查者里存在这么大百分比的 Model S买家,假如没有Model S的话就转而只买平均3万块钱的车子,这哪是大型豪华 轿车的消费者的行为?你见过有S class/7系/A8/LS的买家,不买这几款就跑回去买3万 块钱的车子的吗? isn't that obvious that those buyers enthusiastically need fully electric driving experience? even though they have the money (to buy a Tesla), none of the cars in that range can satisfy their needs. why is it so hard to understand? 等你手里有10万美元的预算买车的时候,心里掂量一下到底买什么车再说吧。没到这个 地步时的心境是无法客观体会的。对于大部分想买大型豪华轿车的消费者,我实在想不 ................... go browse Tesla/gm-volt forums and see what real owners talk about their other cars. and again, stop imagining you are the only few who are in that consumer segment. it is not helpful, and not healthy. I will stop. Arguing with stubborn people is a torture on both side. just look at what kind of arguments are tossed here: OP: Tesla is the best selling luxury sedan, leading S-class by big margin ( translated from articles appearing on nearly all autonews/blogs) Argument 1: Because Tesla is selling at a cheaper price than an S-class, therefore it is not qualified as a luxury sedan. Argument 2: because Tesla's owners earn less than the owners of S-class on average, therefore, Tesla is not qualified as a luxury car. Argument 3: because Tesla's owners cross-shop cheaper cars than S-class owners, therefore, Tesla is not qualified as a luxury car. does any of these argument makes sense to any of you at all?
【 在 FangQ (光芒之神) 的大作中提到: 】 a "class/segment" means it is a range, it is not a point. you may define every car as a class if its own, but it is not the "class" referred in these articles. believe whatever you like. isn't that obvious that those buyers enthusiastically need fully electric : driving experience? even though they have the money (to buy a Tesla), none of the cars in that range can satisfy their needs. why is it so hard to understand? go browse Tesla/gm-volt forums and see what real owners talk about their other cars. and again, stop imagining you are the only few who are in that consumer segment. it is not helpful, and not healthy. ...................
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 tesla论坛里阿猫阿狗随便写句话就当事实了......这个如何? https://www.thestreet.com/story/13198798/2/the-average-tesla-driver-isnt- who -youd-expect.html The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000, once again indicating the high premium drivers give Tesla. Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S, which begins at $75,000 for the 70D version. 根据这个调查,Tesla的用户一般是买平均3万块钱车的那个群体。Tesla跟主流豪华车 ...................
你的英文阅读能力有问题呀, 这篇文章写的是a car with an average selling price AS LOW AS $30,000, 这和平均3万块钱车差别大了, 而且不要忘了这篇文章里写的下一段 Cars viewed as a suitable substitute for Tesla have an average selling price of $78,000, which means there is a 29% premium for Tesla cars.
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 tesla论坛里阿猫阿狗随便写句话就当事实了......这个如何? https://www.thestreet.com/story/13198798/2/the-average-tesla-driver-isnt- who -youd-expect.html The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000, once again indicating the high premium drivers give Tesla. Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S, which begins at $75,000 for the 70D version. 根据这个调查,Tesla的用户一般是买平均3万块钱车的那个群体。Tesla跟主流豪华车 ...................
The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000
【 在 coolfire08 (Hottest Ice) 的大作中提到: 】 你的英文阅读能力有问题呀, 这篇文章写的是a car with an average selling price AS LOW AS $30,000, 这和平均3万块钱车差别大了, 而且不要忘了这篇文章里写的下 一段 Cars viewed as a suitable substitute for Tesla have an average selling price of $78,000, which means there is a 29% premium for Tesla cars. who would
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 那么你把这句话翻译成中文让大家看看是什么意思吧? The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000 price price
The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla "SOME" would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price "AS LOW AS" $30,000
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 那么你把这句话翻译成中文让大家看看是什么意思吧? The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price as low as $30,000 price price
原文说“an average selling price as low as $30,000”,既然是“average”,那 肯定是一批人的平均值了。as low as指的是,这个平均值可以低到这种程度。
你肯定问那个“some”是多少?这样说吧,就算是100%,你也可以说这个调查只问了 145人,说明不了问题。但可以肯定地是,这个some不是1%的人这种量级,因为前文说 了被调查的人之前开的车从15000起价,这离30000还很远。接下来说到的“Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S”更是印证了Model S购买人群对于价格的敏感度,因为那个时候公众已经知道Model X的存在,并且显然 “Model X比Model S要贵”也是公开信息,所以这说明那87%的人连Model X也排除了。所以可以看出,Model S的定价已经触及到87%被调查的消费者的收入可以承受的上限了,再贵的话就算是Tesla的车子也买不起了。
这$76253,大概就是60高配,或者70配最基本的option(皮椅、autopilot),或者是 70D的裸车,这也跟我日常观察的事实吻合(路上跑的大部分都是这些低功率版的Model S)。这类Model S都是类似4缸turbo、或者自吸V6的加速水平,怎么能跟那些V8的 full size旗舰豪华车比呢......
【 在 coolfire08 (Hottest Ice) 的大作中提到: 】 这样吧,我把关键字大写了, 你再读一遍 The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla "SOME" would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an average selling price "AS LOW AS" $30,000 would
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 原文说“an average selling price as low as $30,000”,既然是“average”,那 肯定是一批人的平均值了。as low as指的是,这个平均值可以低到这种程度。 你肯定问那个“some”是多少?这样说吧,就算是100%,你也可以说这个调查只问了: 145人,说明不了问题。但可以肯定地是,这个some不是1%的人这种量级,因为前文说 了被调查的人之前开的车从15000起价,这离30000还很远。接下来说到的“Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle : with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S”更是印证了 Model S购买人群对于价格的敏感度,因为那个时候公众已经知道Model X的存在,并且显然 “Model X比Model S要贵”也是公开信息,所以这说明那87%的人连Model X也排除了。 所以可以看出,Model S的定价已经触及到87%被调查的消费者的收入可以承受的上限了 ...................
唯一会影响精准度的是通过lease方式deliver的车子,TSLA采取lease accounting的方式来算revenue。但幸亏10K表里也说了在2015年之内TSLA自身的金服部门lease出了 3660辆车子,这个的确要采用lease accounting;另外还有6730辆是别的lease partner提走的,这部分TSLA会收到整车的现金,不采用lease accounting(10K原文:“We apply lease accounting on sales of vehicles with a resale value guarantee and on leases made directly by us.”)。所以总的来讲2015销量里面,只有约7%的顾客采用的lease方式会使得TSLA拿不到整车现金,因此这对计算的精确度 的影响不是太大。
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】 买S/7/A8的人是可以考虑买平均售价为3W的车,但是决不会说不买S/7/A8/LS的话就 * 干脆不买豪华品牌,只买平均3万块钱的车*。 算Tesla平均售价的方法是没错的,虽说不会精准到cents这种级别,但是大方向是差不 离的。你可以自己看TSLA的2015 10K表,里面所有数据都有。 唯一会影响精准度的是通过lease方式deliver的车子,TSLA采取lease accounting的方 式来算revenue。但幸亏10K表里也说了在2015年之内TSLA自身的金服部门lease出了 3660辆车子,这个的确要采用lease accounting;另外还有6730辆是别的lease partner提走的,这部分TSLA会收到整车的现金,不采用lease accounting(10K原文: “We apply lease accounting on sales of vehicles with a resale value guarantee and on leases made directly by us.”)。所以总的来讲2015销量里面, ...................
MB/BMW/Audi/Lexus没有公布具体某个车型的销售revenue,按照公开的信息没法算。 Model S之所以可以算是因为TSLA过去几年恰好就只有这个车型卖。前面给你算了一遍 :目前Model S实际的消费者大概就是买车平均花6万多的人(算上7500联邦incentive )。
实际上TSLA也在10K里说了它设计Model S时的参考对象。
2013年的时候:
We believe Model S offers a compelling combination of functionality, convenience and styling without compromising performance and energy efficiency. With the battery pack in the floor of the vehicle and the motor and gearbox in line with the rear axle, Model S provides best in class storage space of 31.6 cubic feet, including storage under both the tailgate and the hood. By way of comparison, this storage space exceeds the approximately 14 cubic feet of storage available in the 2009 BMW 5 Series sedan and the approximately 21 cubic feet of storage available in the 2009 Lincoln Town Car.
2014、2015年的时候:
We believe Model S offers a unique combination of functionality, convenience, safety and styling without compromising performance and energy efficiency. With the battery pack in the floor of the vehicle and the motor and gearbox in line with the rear axle, our single motor Model S provides best in class storage space of 31.6 cubic feet, including storage under both the tailgate and the hood. By way of comparison, this storage space exceeds the approximately 14 cubic feet of storage available in the 2015 BMW 5 Series sedan and the approximately 18 cubic feet of storage available in the 2015 Cadillac XTS.
看清楚了,它写着“our single motor Model S provides best in class storage space”,说起这个“best in class”后面它接着拿BMW 5系、Caddilac XTS和林肯 towncar作对比。
而且你算的2013有点问题 按照Q4官方数据 During the just reported 4th quarter of 2013, Tesla's non-GAAP automotive revenue was $761 million. If we subtract from that $15 million of regulatory credits and $13 million of Toyota and Daimler powertrain revenue, we get Model S sales revenue of $733 million divided by 6892 cars = an average selling price (ASP) per car of $106,355.
【 在 coolfire08 (Hottest Ice) 的大作中提到: 】 : 而且你算的2013有点问题 : 按照Q4官方数据 : During the just reported 4th quarter of 2013, Tesla's non-GAAP automotive : revenue was $761 million. If we subtract from that $15 million of regulatory : credits and $13 million of Toyota and Daimler powertrain revenue, we get : Model S sales revenue of $733 million divided by 6892 cars = an average : selling price (ASP) per car of $106,355. : TSLA
============
放在五年前,谁也不会想到,一台电动车竟然会霸占美国豪华车市场销量第一名,而且相比传统豪华品牌,优势巨大。
据彭博社报道,2016年第三季度,特斯拉Model S在美国市场的销量达到9156台,同比
大涨59%,成为美国最畅销的豪华轿车。
与此同时,特斯拉旗下首款SUVModel X第三季度也卖出了5428台。
作为对比,9156台的销量让Model S远远领先第二名奔驰S级,几乎相当于后者的两倍,第三名则是宝马的新7系。而其他豪华品牌,单车销量都未能突破2000台。
据了解,特斯拉Model S已经占据了美国豪华轿车市场的三分之一,而整个北美市场吃
掉了Model S多达55%的全球订单。
美国卖最好的豪车竟然是它!奔驰宝马奥迪齐看呆
【 在 icefox (icefox) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看来小改款起了作用
: ============
: 放在五年前,谁也不会想到,一台电动车竟然会霸占美国豪华车市场销量第一名,而且
: 相比传统豪华品牌,优势巨大。
: 据彭博社报道,2016年第三季度,特斯拉Model S在美国市场的销量达到9156台,同比
: 大涨59%,成为美国最畅销的豪华轿车。
: 与此同时,特斯拉旗下首款SUVModel X第三季度也卖出了5428台。
: 作为对比,9156台的销量让Model S远远领先第二名奔驰S级,几乎相当于后者的两倍,
: 第三名则是宝马的新7系。而其他豪华品牌,单车销量都未能突破2000台。
: 据了解,特斯拉Model S已经占据了美国豪华轿车市场的三分之一,而整个北美市场吃
: ...................
现在s class起价就是九万六,区间一直到二十多万的S65AMG
这俩车根本不适合一起比较。
【 在 icefox (icefox) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看来小改款起了作用
: ============
: 放在五年前,谁也不会想到,一台电动车竟然会霸占美国豪华车市场销量第一名,而且
: 相比传统豪华品牌,优势巨大。
: 据彭博社报道,2016年第三季度,特斯拉Model S在美国市场的销量达到9156台,同比
: 大涨59%,成为美国最畅销的豪华轿车。
: 与此同时,特斯拉旗下首款SUVModel X第三季度也卖出了5428台。
: 作为对比,9156台的销量让Model S远远领先第二名奔驰S级,几乎相当于后者的两倍,
: 第三名则是宝马的新7系。而其他豪华品牌,单车销量都未能突破2000台。
: 据了解,特斯拉Model S已经占据了美国豪华轿车市场的三分之一,而整个北美市场吃
: ...................
marketing实在没撒意思。
【 在 icefox (icefox) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看来小改款起了作用
: ============
: 放在五年前,谁也不会想到,一台电动车竟然会霸占美国豪华车市场销量第一名,而且
: 相比传统豪华品牌,优势巨大。
: 据彭博社报道,2016年第三季度,特斯拉Model S在美国市场的销量达到9156台,同比
: 大涨59%,成为美国最畅销的豪华轿车。
: 与此同时,特斯拉旗下首款SUVModel X第三季度也卖出了5428台。
: 作为对比,9156台的销量让Model S远远领先第二名奔驰S级,几乎相当于后者的两倍,
: 第三名则是宝马的新7系。而其他豪华品牌,单车销量都未能突破2000台。
: 据了解,特斯拉Model S已经占据了美国豪华轿车市场的三分之一,而整个北美市场吃
: ...................
【 在 BigXX (叉老二) 的大作中提到: 】
: 前列腺怂又来卖弄风骚了^____^
不知道多少了
【 在 pandamalone (0000~史前圣灵猫熊) 的大作中提到: 】
: model s价格区间是五万多到十万出头
: 现在s class起价就是九万六,区间一直到二十多万的S65AMG
: 这俩车根本不适合一起比较。
: model s价格区间是五万多到十万出头
: 现在s class起价就是九万六,区间一直到二十多万的S65AMG
: 这俩车根本不适合一起比较。
a fully loaded tesla model S costs around $150k.
according to this post, the average selling price of a Model S is around $
107k
https://forums.tesla.com/fr_CH/forum/forums/predictions-pricing-model-s-2017-and-beyond#comment-512716
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13198798/2/the-average-tesla-driver-isnt-who-youd-expect.html
The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an
average selling price as low as $30,000, once again indicating the high
premium drivers give Tesla. Of those surveyed only 13% of respondents said
they would have purchased a vehicle with an average selling price higher
than the Tesla Model S, which begins at $75,000 for the 70D version.
根据这个调查,Tesla的用户一般是买平均3万块钱车的那个群体。Tesla跟主流豪华车
的消费者群体overlap很小。
【 在 FangQ (光芒之神) 的大作中提到: 】
: a fully loaded tesla model S costs around $150k.
: according to this post, the average selling price of a Model S is around $: 107k
: https://forums.tesla.com/fr_CH/forum/forums/predictions-pricing-model-s-
2017
: -and-beyond#comment-512716
Tesla S买家平均年龄四十几岁,男性,收入二十几万,cross shop类似价格的E class/5 series
S class买家平均年龄六十几岁,收入40万
通过问卷调查是目前最有效的。显然,调查结果显示,被调查者里存在这么大百分比的Model S买家,假如没有Model S的话就转而只买平均3万块钱的车子,这哪是大型豪华
轿车的消费者的行为?你见过有S class/7系/A8/LS的买家,不买这几款就跑回去买3万块钱的车子的吗?
等你手里有10万美元的预算买车的时候,心里掂量一下到底买什么车再说吧。没到这个地步时的心境是无法客观体会的。对于大部分想买大型豪华轿车的消费者,我实在想不出Model S到底有什么吸引力?再说Model S连豪华车都算不上......
纯电动车,就没有便宜的选择,基本价就是特斯拉的model S。
汽车,人们有很多选择,买纯电动车,就只有特斯拉。因此不能说特斯拉价格高,就声称是豪车。不能因为想玩纯电车,大家没选择,只能买它就说它比其他豪车卖的好。
体,甚至连“接近”都说不上。大型豪华轿车并不是需要加速最快的,甚至还不需要马力/扭矩是最大。这就是譬如说,为什么BMW允许让M5的马力和加速能力全部远超于劳斯莱斯幻影的原因。至于是否是不间断、无换档地加速,这方面在此级别轿车里权重也很小——否则的话,GS450h和LS600hL早就卖疯了;甚至是,这级别轿车里换档动作最顿
挫、用户体验最差的S class,反而是卖得最好的。Model S之所以跟豪华轿车尚有距离,是因为fundamental层面上的技术缺陷(车架结构)导致的,不是说改一改软件/多包些皮革就能解决的。
因此拿Model S跟S/7/A8/LS这些车比是没意义的。这就好比拿Fusion去跟5/E/A6/GS比
,Fusion面向的人群肯定广很多(因为便宜呀)因此销量也大,但这跟车子本身的设计和技术水平风马牛不相及。还是那句话,当一个人的收入水平使得购买10万-20万美元
级别轿车成了惯例之后,他心里自然知道理想的车子要有什么。
看了这个帖子,先不说技术层面上的东西了,这车的装配质量真是让人笑死。连门都装不齐,整车掉胳膊缺脑袋那样的。真以为嘴里喊着“刀枪不入”往枪口那边冲就真能打败别人了?
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/brand-new-model-s-quality-issues-
take-months-to-resolve.78477/
另外,大家讨论车子,就事论事;你转而讨论网友干什么呢?技术上说不过别人就开始往人身攻击方面引导是吧?
写那么长没人看
销量下降, s-class是降的最多的, 而model s的销量却大幅上升, 看今年目前的数
据, 这个差距可能会更大了
看价格的话,s-class虽然base msrp是9万多,但是实际购买价格还是要低不少的, 买高配model s的比买高配s-class的还是要多的, 虽然average sale price s-class应
该还是更高但是差别没有所说的那么多了
你去dealer很难看到不加选配的裸车
相比之下乞丐版model s去掉退税是五万多
九万多就是再怎么打折也明显比五万多高
Cars viewed as a suitable substitute for Tesla have an average selling price of $78,000, which means there is a 29% premium for Tesla cars.
款车去年早期就停产了, 最近才从新推出的, 而且即使after7500 tax refund也是将近60000呀
The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla some would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an
average selling price as low as $30,000
是多少?
另外,既然你可以“猜测”“买乞丐版model s的太少了”;那我也可以同样合理地声
称,买乞丐版的S/7/A8/LS的人也很少。
所以只要初始的价差存在,在价格这点上怎么argue都是没用的。
The results also showed that if drivers had not purchased a Tesla "SOME"
would have rejected going the luxury car route and instead bought a car with an
average selling price "AS LOW AS" $30,000
肯定是一批人的平均值了。as low as指的是,这个平均值可以低到这种程度。
你肯定问那个“some”是多少?这样说吧,就算是100%,你也可以说这个调查只问了
145人,说明不了问题。但可以肯定地是,这个some不是1%的人这种量级,因为前文说
了被调查的人之前开的车从15000起价,这离30000还很远。接下来说到的“Of those
surveyed only 13% of respondents said they would have purchased a vehicle
with an average selling price higher than the Tesla Model S”更是印证了Model S购买人群对于价格的敏感度,因为那个时候公众已经知道Model X的存在,并且显然
“Model X比Model S要贵”也是公开信息,所以这说明那87%的人连Model X也排除了。所以可以看出,Model S的定价已经触及到87%被调查的消费者的收入可以承受的上限了,再贵的话就算是Tesla的车子也买不起了。
所有这些,目的都是论证“Model S的消费者群体跟S/7/A8/LS的买家绝大部分都不
overlap”。因为不可能(除了极少的特例,比如说突然破产之类的)有S/7/A8/LS的买家,不买这些车子的时候干脆连豪华品牌都不考虑;又或者,根本不去考虑比S/7/A8/
LS贵的车子——这种级别车子的买家,多数人的收入水平不可能局促到这种程度(或者说不会有“打肿脸充胖子”式的消费习惯)。
虽然Tesla故意不公布,但是我们还是可以粗略地估算出Tesla每年卖出的车子的平均价格。拿2015年来说吧:
总revenue是4.05B,这个revenue里面除了卖车,还包括贩卖ZEV credit得来的168.7m
,State of Nevada的tax incentive 19.9m,卖prepaid service plan的4.5m,还有其它的杂项我就跟你让一步不算了。4.05B减掉上面那些不相关的收入基本上就是纯卖车
的收入。2015年里面Tesla deliver了50580辆车,基本上全是Model S(另还有200多辆Model X吧,这个量级太小就当成Model S算吧)。两者相除就是这50580辆车的平均售
价。我帮你按计算器算了,每辆车平均$76,253。
联邦的$7500肯定可以拿的。在加州还有$2500;假如在中部某些county(比如说San
Joaquin, Fresno这些),还有另外一个rebate可以拿3000块钱;这里我也给你让一步
,就只看前两者了。至少在Tesla销售的大头——加州,买Model S的平均价格实际是减掉一万,66000左右。买6万多的车子的人群,跟买S/7/A8/LS这种10万块钱级别车子的
人是两码事。
这$76253,大概就是60高配,或者70配最基本的option(皮椅、autopilot),或者是
70D的裸车,这也跟我日常观察的事实吻合(路上跑的大部分都是这些低功率版的Model S)。这类Model S都是类似4缸turbo、或者自吸V6的加速水平,怎么能跟那些V8的
full size旗舰豪华车比呢......
有看懂原文, 而犯了这么明显的错误, 不敢与承认反而还在这胡搅蛮缠只能说明你又在这刷下线了。 BTW这里的average selling price as low as指的是平均售价低至
30000的车型, 而并不是总平均售价。 而且我可不信买S/7/A8的人就没有考虑买平均
售价为3W的车
你这样的算法肯定不对的, 不信你用同样的方法算下2014年的tesla, musk也曾经说过model s的平均售价为9W多, 我个人能在外面见到的model s大都为P90D/85, 95/85等, 70/60则很少见到。 而且既然你是费力猫, 你不如把所有S/7/A8/LS的数据也按同样
的方法算出来吧这样才好做对比吧? 另外2015年的7serie base msrp只有74000, 这
已经和同时期的model s相差不了多少了, 而LS则更低了, 这和起价为94000的S-
class差远了呀, 那么按照你的说法, 7系和s-class也不能对比咯哈哈
ModelS和S600显然不是一个级别。3妙以内的加速,秒杀20w以内的汽油车了吧。
以后可能还会卖的更好,jjyy没用。
干脆不买豪华品牌,只买平均3万块钱的车*。
算Tesla平均售价的方法是没错的,虽说不会精准到cents这种级别,但是大方向是差不离的。你可以自己看TSLA的2015 10K表,里面所有数据都有。
唯一会影响精准度的是通过lease方式deliver的车子,TSLA采取lease accounting的方式来算revenue。但幸亏10K表里也说了在2015年之内TSLA自身的金服部门lease出了
3660辆车子,这个的确要采用lease accounting;另外还有6730辆是别的lease
partner提走的,这部分TSLA会收到整车的现金,不采用lease accounting(10K原文:“We apply lease accounting on sales of vehicles with a resale value
guarantee and on leases made directly by us.”)。所以总的来讲2015销量里面,只有约7%的顾客采用的lease方式会使得TSLA拿不到整车现金,因此这对计算的精确度
的影响不是太大。
甚至,采用lease accounting的方式的时候,2015年里面TSLA还会把2013年、2014年
lease出去车子的顾客的2015年monthly payment都算在2015年revenue里,但这些钱并
不是属于2015年卖出的车子的;还有前面也提到了,TSLA还有一些不属于卖车的收入。所有这些,我都没跟你计较了。
所以最后算出来的$76xxx那个数字,我估计还甚至是过于乐观呢。
Elon Musk怎么说是一回事;向SEC file的10K表不会说谎,白纸黑字的数字说明一切。况且Musk之前不是说可以自动驾驶么?别人把手松开方向盘边开车边下棋吃面包他还点赞呢;怎么autopilot一失灵死了人了,他就立刻不出声呢?Musk可是加州头号的稀拉
痢支持者,所谓物以类聚人以群分,这种人的话你也能信?
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-16/elon-musk-helps-california-rank-no-1-for-hillary-clinton-fundraising
文理解能力有问题, 连some的意思都搞不懂哈哈
你别再这扯东扯西一堆废话了, 我叫你按同样的方法算下2013,2014年的tesla车平均售价, 以及用样的算法来算这几年S/7/A8/LS。
有人都知道就算这些车子目前不是严格的“同档次”、“同级别”,它们至少是属于同一集团军的。因为就算当前在销量、价格上比不过S class,它们也曾经的确在技术/质量层面上撼动过S class的地位。
但是Model S的技术水平和制造质量,再加上平均的售价,连进入这个集团军的水准都
不具备......
model s才出了几年呀, 你就硬要拿来比拼历史地位, 哈哈你还真是理穷了
如果还不奏效,他会人肉你,逼你闭嘴。
如果还还不奏效,他会突然人家消失,俗称尿巡。
2,3周以后他会满血复活。
记得上次他被打脸也就3周左右。
我觉得你干脆让我算2012年Model S刚开始上市时那个月的平均售价得了,那个数据肯
定让你开心——因为那个月里交付的基本上都是高配的85版。
MB/BMW/Audi/Lexus没有公布具体某个车型的销售revenue,按照公开的信息没法算。
Model S之所以可以算是因为TSLA过去几年恰好就只有这个车型卖。前面给你算了一遍
:目前Model S实际的消费者大概就是买车平均花6万多的人(算上7500联邦incentive
)。
实际上TSLA也在10K里说了它设计Model S时的参考对象。
2013年的时候:
We believe Model S offers a compelling combination of functionality,
convenience and styling without compromising performance and energy
efficiency. With the battery pack in the floor of the vehicle and the motor and gearbox in line with the rear axle, Model S provides best in class
storage space of 31.6 cubic feet, including storage under both the tailgate and the hood. By way of comparison, this storage space exceeds the
approximately 14 cubic feet of storage available in the 2009 BMW 5 Series
sedan and the approximately 21 cubic feet of storage available in the 2009
Lincoln Town Car.
2014、2015年的时候:
We believe Model S offers a unique combination of functionality, convenience, safety and styling without compromising performance and energy efficiency. With the battery pack in the floor of the vehicle and the motor and gearbox in line with the rear axle, our single motor Model S provides best in class storage space of 31.6 cubic feet, including storage under both the tailgate and the hood. By way of comparison, this storage space exceeds the
approximately 14 cubic feet of storage available in the 2015 BMW 5 Series
sedan and the approximately 18 cubic feet of storage available in the 2015
Cadillac XTS.
看清楚了,它写着“our single motor Model S provides best in class storage
space”,说起这个“best in class”后面它接着拿BMW 5系、Caddilac XTS和林肯
towncar作对比。
毫无疑问,5系、XTS、towncar都是Model S设计时的假象敌。
按照MSRP来看的话,我们只算guarantee每个人都能拿到的折扣好吗?2015 740i RWD是74000,当时G11新一代出来要清仓2015 model year的时候BMW给的官方折扣是$4000,
那最后可确保的价格是7万美元整;同一年的时候,Model S起价是6万6,剪掉7500块钱联邦incentive,我就给你让一步,算成是6万美元整吧(实际上应该是连5万9美元都不到;假如再算上加州的2500那就是56000了,我都替你不好意思了)。你这“差不多”
的范围可真广......
止4000, 但是你非要说guarantee能得到的话那是你的事(7500的退税也不是
guarantee的), 而且你算的是全球数据还
拿加州的退税来说话也是醉了
算上折扣退税, model s售价也就最多低了几千而已,
是2014的数据
当然要看guarantee的折扣了。不同的人砍价能力和运气都不同,有的人拿的折扣大,
有的人甚至一分钱都拿不到,把这算进来就真的没说服力了。
况且TSLA也卖showroom car,那些车除了联邦incentive之外的打折可是很多的,我也
没把这个算进来对吧?所以我在计算的时候都是一视同仁,只算guarantee的、每人都
必然能拿到的折扣。
按照汇率换算之后,S/7/A8/LS这些车子在美国算是卖的最便宜的啦;拿到中国、欧洲
那里去卖,价格贵很多的。我用美国市场来做例子,实际上也是给你让步了。
连TSLA自己都说Model S所属的best in class,是跟5系、XTS、towncar来比的,你想
否认这一点?
showroom car都相当于二手车了, 而其他车能拿到的实际折扣比你说的guarantee的高多了, 7500的退税也不是guaranteed,像lease的就不能拿。 S/7/A8/LS在国外卖的价
格高是应为那些车关税高, 和tesla本身售价没关系
你那用的比较的是storage space而已,说明的了什么问题, 那么多大型媒体都用得S/7/A8来做对比被你忽略掉了?
一辆,以为是新车,我当时还提醒过他。
所以我就拿美国市场的价格来比。
2013:$78226
2014: $90447
2015: $76253
看到2014年的数值很高兴对吧?咦,2013和2015怎么回事呢?接着还有呢。2016年还没结束,但是TSLA倒是公布了unaudited的前半年数据。Automotive related的revenue是$2,207,916,000,这个还包括了卖emission credit的钱,但我一时找不到卖credit具
体赚了多少,所以这里我就优惠你,把卖credit的钱也算成是车价。2016年前半年TSLA卖了29190辆车,你自己算算平均是多少?$75639。
要知道2016年前半年还包括了一些Model X的delivery,都是巨贵的十几万美元的顶配
款式,并且我也还把工厂卖排放credit的钱都打进里面了;但是就算我如此优待你“刻意地往高里算”,平均价格算下来还比2015年降低了。这说明Model S那部分的平均售
价还在不断走低。
也就是说,市场总体来讲越来越不endorse Model S的高配车型,大家都跑去买低功率
、低配的版本。也就是说对于广大消费者来讲,Model S的吸引力不在于加速或者豪华
度上面。这个品牌正在falling apart......
当然,上面是粗略的计算,所以不会精确到cents这种级别,但是大趋势是看得很清的。
你的个人推算,不是实际官方数据),你不能用同样方法算出其他车型的平均售价,
没有对比, 你再怎样算都有意义。 而且model s的销量大幅增长, 其他车却都在下降, 你是那看出来这车这品牌在falling apart呢?
按照Q4官方数据
During the just reported 4th quarter of 2013, Tesla's non-GAAP automotive
revenue was $761 million. If we subtract from that $15 million of regulatory credits and $13 million of Toyota and Daimler powertrain revenue, we get
Model S sales revenue of $733 million divided by 6892 cars = an average
selling price (ASP) per car of $106,355.
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】
: 都是印在10K上的数字,怎么可能存在“准确”的问题呢?
: 2013:$78226
: 2014: $90447
: 2015: $76253
: 看到2014年的数值很高兴对吧?咦,2013和2015怎么回事呢?接着还有呢。2016年还没
: 结束,但是TSLA倒是公布了unaudited的前半年数据。Automotive related的revenue是
: $2,207,916,000,这个还包括了卖emission credit的钱,但我一时找不到卖credit具
: 体赚了多少,所以这里我就优惠你,把卖credit的钱也算成是车价。2016年前半年
TSLA
: 卖了29190辆车,你自己算算平均是多少?$75639。
: 要知道2016年前半年还包括了一些Model X的delivery,都是巨贵的十几万美元的顶配
: ...................
另外我算的是全年的,你拿一个Q4来比没意义啊。
【 在 coolfire08 (Hottest Ice) 的大作中提到: 】
: 而且你算的2013有点问题
: 按照Q4官方数据
: During the just reported 4th quarter of 2013, Tesla's non-GAAP automotive : revenue was $761 million. If we subtract from that $15 million of
regulatory
: credits and $13 million of Toyota and Daimler powertrain revenue, we get : Model S sales revenue of $733 million divided by 6892 cars = an average
: selling price (ASP) per car of $106,355.
: TSLA
【 在 felixcat (Cirrus Logic) 的大作中提到: 】
: 看清楚是“non-GAAP”,10K表是按照US GAAP的,季度的不用这个,两回事......
: 另外我算的是全年的,你拿一个Q4来比没意义啊。
: regulatory