再说群体免疫

ABCNBC
楼主 (未名空间)


  作者:qtl

  【按:今天早晨在朋友圈里面看到一位教授转了一篇妖魔化群体免疫的文章。
看到文章头几句我就没看下去。其中一句是把群体偷换成小群体,另外一句是免
疫率一定是76%。虽然没看下去,却不能自已。】

  群体免疫本来是一个很正常的免疫学词汇。但是从某地开始的新冠在全世界
流行之后,这个本来偏褒义的科学词汇在中国被渐渐污名化。中国本来没有什么
科学传统,如此地妖魔化一个科学词汇,最终会使民众的科学素质再降低一个层
次。

  群体免疫是不是个好词各位可以从以下事实体会。那些曾经在人群中肆虐的
传染病都是靠群体免疫来控制的。有的如天花已经被彻底根除,有的如小儿麻痹
在全世界即将被根除。那些还需要强制免疫的传染病,则是因为他们在全世界仍
然有流行的趋势。比如结核病,比如 MMR。

  众所不周知,不论是从经济上还是肉体上算,防治传染病以人工免疫最合算。
有些传染病一旦发病,往往命去十八。有些人即使花大钱,或因其它原因侥幸活
下来,也会留下诸多后遗症。群体免疫同样适用于家畜和家禽。而畜禽一旦发病
往往需要团灭,甚至连工场都不能要了。不会有人去化力气治疗它们。

  群体免疫究竟要人群中有多大比例的人有免疫力由很多因素决定,最主要的
因素是传染病的传播系数,例如 R0。麻疹在一般条件下的 R0>14,它就需要很
高的群体免疫率才能达到群体免疫。这些年来欧美有不少反疫苗的噪声,其恶果
首先就反应在 R0 高的麻疹上。过去几年,欧洲每年有几万儿童患麻疹,每年几
十至上百儿童因此丧命。而那些传播系数不高,或者短期看起来不那么严重的传
染病,虽然一时半会儿还看不出后果,但长此以往必将反噬重击人类。

  在畜牧业中,危害最大的不见得是那些烈性传染病。这些疾病的恶果往往显
而易见,因此一般容易对付。而那些后果不那么显而易见的低烈度传染病则往往
会造成重大损失。现代的畜牧业属于规模经济,有时候单位几分钱的成本波动都
可能导致工场盈利,或者折本。没有群体免疫的慢性传染病对人类来说就是一个
沉重的社会负担。就像中国曾经高达 10+% 乙肝病毒感染率给中国社会造成的伤
害。

  而随着地球上的人口越来越多,越来越相互依存,像新冠这样不如萨斯那样
致命,又像感冒和萨斯一样高度传染的疾病这次就给地球人以重创。这并不是说
病毒似乎很聪明,它们本身也是生命的一部分,它们其中那些更适合自己生存和
传播的变种最终会留下来。可以预见,更厉害的“完美”病毒变种迟早会出现的。

  人类这次很幸运,有 mRNA 疫苗以及其它一两传统疫苗来对抗。下一次是否
这么幸运就不太好说了。但毫无疑问,科学是解决此类危机的最终途径。各种严
重危害人类的传染病最终也需要通过群体免疫的途径来解决。
D
DreamTiger


群体免疫本身就没错。错在不靠疫苗,想用人命堆出来个群体免疫。

【 在 ABCNBC (小李飞刀) 的大作中提到: 】
:   作者:qtl
:   【按:今天早晨在朋友圈里面看到一位教授转了一篇妖魔化群体免疫的文章。
: 看到文章头几句我就没看下去。其中一句是把群体偷换成小群体,另外一句是免
: 疫率一定是76%。虽然没看下去,却不能自已。】
:   群体免疫本来是一个很正常的免疫学词汇。但是从某地开始的新冠在全世界
: 流行之后,这个本来偏褒义的科学词汇在中国被渐渐污名化。中国本来没有什么
: 科学传统,如此地妖魔化一个科学词汇,最终会使民众的科学素质再降低一个层
: 次。
:   群体免疫是不是个好词各位可以从以下事实体会。那些曾经在人群中肆虐的
: 传染病都是靠群体免疫来控制的。有的如天花已经被彻底根除,有的如小儿麻痹
: ...................

r
rdfirdfi

Everyone that WOULD die from covid MUST die!

【 在 DreamTiger (钟爱你一生) 的大作中提到: 】
: 群体免疫本身就没错。错在不靠疫苗,想用人命堆出来个群体免疫。

FortyNiner

but you don't know who Would die from covid until the dust settles down. I can reuse your example. God would save those who do this and that, but it
is people's own choice to do this and that. So your own action can define
if you Would die from covid. Of course, there are exceptions and it is just out of some people's control.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: Everyone that WOULD die from covid MUST die!

r
rdfirdfi

Yes, everyone's own action can alter their chance of dying from covid. If
you really don't want to die from covid, try all you can to avoid it. That's always my point.

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: but you don't know who Would die from covid until the dust settles down. I
: can reuse your example. God would save those who do this and that, but it
: is people's own choice to do this and that. So your own action can define
: if you Would die from covid. Of course, there are exceptions and it is
just
: out of some people's control.

FortyNiner

That's my point too, for the majority of us. However, there are some who
are not able to be in control, and seems that is what we do not agree on.
You implied that they were still 100% responsible for themselves, and my
opinion is that they are not able to be 100% in control of their own fates, we, as communities and at different government levels, need to take care of them too, at least to some extend.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: Yes, everyone's own action can alter their chance of dying from covid. If : you really don't want to die from covid, try all you can to avoid it. That's
: always my point.
: I
: just

r
rdfirdfi

When you tried everything and still dies from covid, it's the God's will.

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: That's my point too, for the majority of us. However, there are some who : are not able to be in control, and seems that is what we do not agree on.
: You implied that they were still 100% responsible for themselves, and my
: opinion is that they are not able to be 100% in control of their own fates,
: we, as communities and at different government levels, need to take care
of
: them too, at least to some extend.
: 's

FortyNiner

Let me give you an example. Let's say I am having a trip to China, I am
certainly not rich enough to afford my own private jet, not to mention the "safest" one. So once onboard, I am not in control any more. Have I tried
everything yet? Probably not, I can book the flight with the airlines with the best safety record, or I can choose a cruise ship or some other means. Because many people are in situations like this, the governments have the
obligation to do things, such as security check and safer airplanes, to
ensure the safety of them. In this pandemic, many people are in situations similar to my flight. Yes, they still can do better, but still, they can
not be in control of their own fates.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: When you tried everything and still dies from covid, it's the God's will.
: ,
: of

r
rdfirdfi

The governments do not have obligations to prevent people from getting sick. Not in the US.

The governments can do the best that they can. In the case of US, that
includes providing information obtained from government sponsored research
programs, provide contact tracing programs, and invest in the development of the vaccines.

The government SHOULD NOT use force to shutdown businesses.

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: Let me give you an example. Let's say I am having a trip to China, I am
: certainly not rich enough to afford my own private jet, not to mention the "
: safest" one. So once onboard, I am not in control any more. Have I tried
: everything yet? Probably not, I can book the flight with the airlines
with
: the best safety record, or I can choose a cruise ship or some other means.
: Because many people are in situations like this, the governments have the : obligation to do things, such as security check and safer airplanes, to
: ensure the safety of them. In this pandemic, many people are in
situations
: similar to my flight. Yes, they still can do better, but still, they can : not be in control of their own fates.

D
DreamTiger


这厮叫嚣得连极右都要跟他划清界限了,你跟他废话啥。版上有几个我是一句不回的了。

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: but you don't know who Would die from covid until the dust settles down. I
: can reuse your example. God would save those who do this and that, but it
: is people's own choice to do this and that. So your own action can define
: if you Would die from covid. Of course, there are exceptions and it is
just
: out of some people's control.

r
rdfirdfi

No one completely controls their fate of when/where/how to die.

Everyone that WOULD die from covid MUST die!

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: Let me give you an example. Let's say I am having a trip to China, I am
: certainly not rich enough to afford my own private jet, not to mention the "
: safest" one. So once onboard, I am not in control any more. Have I tried
: everything yet? Probably not, I can book the flight with the airlines
with
: the best safety record, or I can choose a cruise ship or some other means.
: Because many people are in situations like this, the governments have the : obligation to do things, such as security check and safer airplanes, to
: ensure the safety of them. In this pandemic, many people are in
situations
: similar to my flight. Yes, they still can do better, but still, they can : not be in control of their own fates.

r
rdfirdfi

Everyone that WOULD die from covid MUST die!
Fauci MUST BE HANGED!

【 在 DreamTiger (钟爱你一生) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这厮叫嚣得连极右都要跟他划清界限了,你跟他废话啥。版上有几个我是一句不回的了。
: I
: just

FortyNiner

That's where we do not agree on. There is no need to argue further. You
cannot convince me, and I cannot convince you either. In the name of
national security, the government can do anything; obviously, 580k deaths is still not enough. If this virus was as bad as the black death, I wonder if you will change your opinion.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: The governments do not have obligations to prevent people from getting
sick.
: Not in the US.
: The governments can do the best that they can. In the case of US, that
: includes providing information obtained from government sponsored research
: programs, provide contact tracing programs, and invest in the development of
: the vaccines.
: The government SHOULD NOT use force to shutdown businesses.
: "
: with
:
: ...................

FortyNiner

He's fine, just having different opinions. I respect him, at least we are
not throwing trash on each other.

【 在 DreamTiger (钟爱你一生) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这厮叫嚣得连极右都要跟他划清界限了,你跟他废话啥。版上有几个我是一句不回的了。
: I
: just

r
rdfirdfi

If 30% of people would die, the government should provide this information, and lockdown cities with real enforcement.

My threshold is 5%. 580k deaths in US is not enough to justify any lockdown.

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: That's where we do not agree on. There is no need to argue further. You : cannot convince me, and I cannot convince you either. In the name of
: national security, the government can do anything; obviously, 580k deaths is
: still not enough. If this virus was as bad as the black death, I wonder if
: you will change your opinion.
: sick.
: of

FortyNiner

So it is not that "The governments do not have obligations to prevent people from getting sick." It is simply that the situation is not dire enough.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: If 30% of people would die, the government should provide this information,
: and lockdown cities with real enforcement.
: My threshold is 5%. 580k deaths in US is not enough to justify any
lockdown.
: is
: if

r
rdfirdfi

I agree with you

"In the name of national security, the government can do anything"

US government DOES HAVE the obligation to protect national security. That's the very reason why US has a government rather than not.

Yes, the situation of covid is NOT dire enough to constitute a threat to
national security.

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: So it is not that "The governments do not have obligations to prevent
people
: from getting sick." It is simply that the situation is not dire enough.
: ,
: lockdown.

FortyNiner

OK. I respect the differnece in opinions.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: I agree with you
: "In the name of national security, the government can do anything"
: US government DOES HAVE the obligation to protect national security. That's
: the very reason why US has a government rather than not.
: Yes, the situation of covid is NOT dire enough to constitute a threat to
: national security.
: people

r
rdfirdfi

Me too.

【 在 FortyNiner (Niner) 的大作中提到: 】
: OK. I respect the differnece in opinions.
: s

c
cellcycle

被动和主动的区别。。。

【在 ABCNBC(小李飞刀)的大作中提到:】

:  作者:qtl