I think generally speaking there are 3 major factors for success as most other things, which are strength, heritage and fortune. Though there are always some abnormal cases, such as Greece 2004, but they are rare cases.
Strength, normally it possesses stars, a balance squad/teamwork and a good coach. On paper the strongest teams now are Belgium, France and Portugal.
Heritage is that you have to have historical accumulation to win. It means that if you get into the final for the first time, you are less likely to win. Most winners are past winners. Even the first time winners would have their previous teams achieved something close to the title, for example reached semi-final or final. A good case for this one, would be France. I do think the France team of 1982 and 1986 might have win one WC between them, while they didn’t and France finally get over the line in 1998. Germany won the 1990 after reached two successive finals.
Luck or fortune, this is also depends on how your team performed historically. The luck is normally balanced out over times, like energy conservation theorem. You may be lucky in some year, and your national team will pay in later times. For example, there is no doubt about the greatness of Maradona. However, he and his team mates had used all luck for Argentina in 1986 and 1990. Maradona hand of God against England in 86 and handball to block the otherwise a sure goal on the goal line against USSR in 1990. He didn’t get punished for either case, otherwise we don’t know if Argentina would beat England or not. But we would nearly be sure that Argentina would be out of group stage in 1990. Since the goal Maradona blocked would be the first goal of the game and USSR would be leading in the match and Argentina never win a game after trailing in a game during that WC. Argentina needed to win to qualify, a draw would eliminated them. Then they won the two games against Brazil and Yogoslovia, in both games were out performed by their opponents in general, but somehow win the game. Then came the game against Italy, which is actually the only match Argentina played evenly with its opponents in the elimination stage. But, once again, Argentina handballed 12 times in that game and many of them are purely intentional. I remember feeling a bit of irksome to see an Italian player was fighting for the ball by jumping high and the Argentina player simply tip the ball just over the his opponents head with his hand like toying with him. The problem was that it was just a free kick for Italy and there was no yellow card from referee. Argentina got only 2 yellow cards (total of 4) for handball in that game, of which they definitely deserved more. Hence, this is one of the key reasons why Argentina hasn’t been able to win anything since, even though possessed fantastic squads for several WCs, like 02, 06 and 10. Argentina of 2010 should have the best squad in its history and they chose the worst possible coach to ruin it. Maradona was an otherworldly genius as a player, while not much more intelligent than a monkey as a coach. That’s why I always feel sympathetic for Messi. The opposite can be say about the Italy of 06 and France of 98 should be grateful to their unlucky predecessors of Italy 90 and France 82,86.
Belgium has a balance squad (strikers, defenders, goalie etc.) and a superstar De Bruyne in the middle field, Hazard would be useful for breakthrough in some cases, though I don’t know if his form is good enough. If not, he should be dropped, since otherwise it would be challenge to put both him and De Bruyne in the central middle field. Belgium has reached both semi and final before. France has a strong squad with plenty of stars, however, I don’t think this squad is strong enough to win WC and EURO back to back. Portugal actually has a stronger squad than last time. However, they have used up their luck in EURO2016, in which all the strong teams played in the other half of the draw. Similarly that Portugal team had the team 2004 to thank for. Spain is strong but the tiki taka era is fading away and they have not established the new style yet, furthermore, they had won enough glories in the past decade. Germany and Italy both have balanced squad with Germany has a bit of more star power. Both has strong heritage and hasn’t won titles in the past 8 or 10 years.
That’s why my pick are Belgium, Germany and Italy. Holland could be the dark horse of the tournament, albeit not going all the way.
Let’s compare with my prediction with that of Pele’s after the tournament😊
比利时的纸面实力最强，而且阵容均衡，三条线加守门员，还有丁丁这样的核心球员。怎么同时用好丁丁和啊咋二是个问题。 应该以丁丁为主，啊咋二在需要突破的时候还
是有用的（不知道他最近状态怎么样， 如果差就直接弃用）。但是他俩同时上场， 后腰就压力大一些，这个得看教练怎么布阵了。
法国实力第二，但不觉得他们有联夺世界杯和欧洲杯那么强， 所以概率不大。 德意实力差一些，但都有传统，发挥好了都有可能。 葡萄说过了没戏， 板鸭提剋踢卡一代退役后新得风格还没形成，也不成。 所以真让我选三个得话， 是比德意。
荷兰可能是黑马，也许会有出色的表现。
这是大概三星期前写的， 点的队现在只有德国还没亮相。
缘由如下：懒得敲中文了。叔英语最近退步明显，有点老年痴呆了？ 对付着看吧。
For EURO2020.
I think generally speaking there are 3 major factors for success as most
other things, which are strength, heritage and fortune. Though there are
always some abnormal cases, such as Greece 2004, but they are rare cases.
Strength, normally it possesses stars, a balance squad/teamwork and a good
coach. On paper the strongest teams now are Belgium, France and Portugal.
Heritage is that you have to have historical accumulation to win. It means
that if you get into the final for the first time, you are less likely to
win. Most winners are past winners. Even the first time winners would have
their previous teams achieved something close to the title, for example
reached semi-final or final. A good case for this one, would be France. I do think the France team of 1982 and 1986 might have win one WC between them, while they didn’t and France finally get over the line in 1998. Germany won the 1990 after reached two successive finals.
Luck or fortune, this is also depends on how your team performed
historically. The luck is normally balanced out over times, like energy
conservation theorem. You may be lucky in some year, and your national team will pay in later times. For example, there is no doubt about the greatness of Maradona. However, he and his team mates had used all luck for Argentina in 1986 and 1990. Maradona hand of God against England in 86 and handball
to block the otherwise a sure goal on the goal line against USSR in 1990. He didn’t get punished for either case, otherwise we don’t know if Argentina would beat England or not. But we would nearly be sure that Argentina would be out of group stage in 1990. Since the goal Maradona blocked would be the first goal of the game and USSR would be leading in the match and Argentina never win a game after trailing in a game during that WC. Argentina needed to win to qualify, a draw would eliminated them. Then they won the two games against Brazil and Yogoslovia, in both games were out performed by their
opponents in general, but somehow win the game. Then came the game against
Italy, which is actually the only match Argentina played evenly with its
opponents in the elimination stage. But, once again, Argentina handballed 12 times in that game and many of them are purely intentional. I remember
feeling a bit of irksome to see an Italian player was fighting for the ball by jumping high and the Argentina player simply tip the ball just over the
his opponents head with his hand like toying with him. The problem was that it was just a free kick for Italy and there was no yellow card from referee. Argentina got only 2 yellow cards (total of 4) for handball in that game,
of which they definitely deserved more. Hence, this is one of the key
reasons why Argentina hasn’t been able to win anything since, even though
possessed fantastic squads for several WCs, like 02, 06 and 10. Argentina of 2010 should have the best squad in its history and they chose the worst
possible coach to ruin it. Maradona was an otherworldly genius as a player, while not much more intelligent than a monkey as a coach. That’s why I
always feel sympathetic for Messi. The opposite can be say about the Italy
of 06 and France of 98 should be grateful to their unlucky predecessors of
Italy 90 and France 82,86.
Belgium has a balance squad (strikers, defenders, goalie etc.) and a
superstar De Bruyne in the middle field, Hazard would be useful for
breakthrough in some cases, though I don’t know if his form is good enough. If not, he should be dropped, since otherwise it would be challenge to put both him and De Bruyne in the central middle field. Belgium has reached both semi and final before. France has a strong squad with plenty of stars,
however, I don’t think this squad is strong enough to win WC and EURO back to back. Portugal actually has a stronger squad than last time. However,
they have used up their luck in EURO2016, in which all the strong teams
played in the other half of the draw. Similarly that Portugal team had the
team 2004 to thank for. Spain is strong but the tiki taka era is fading
away and they have not established the new style yet, furthermore, they had won enough glories in the past decade. Germany and Italy both have balanced squad with Germany has a bit of more star power. Both has strong heritage
and hasn’t won titles in the past 8 or 10 years.
That’s why my pick are Belgium, Germany and Italy. Holland could be the
dark horse of the tournament, albeit not going all the way.
Let’s compare with my prediction with that of Pele’s after the tournament😊
目前只有德国输了一场，希望别掉队， 都进8强再说。
比利时的后卫太坑了
按说不应该， 但是就像以前说的，比利时的关键是如何用好丁丁。
【 在 cards (cardinals) 的大作中提到: 】
: 比利时的后卫太坑了