强制口罩效果的实例来了

a
abracadabra
楼主 (未名空间)


今天的WSJhttp://www.wsj.com/articles/kansas-democrats-covid-chart-masks-the-truth-11598483406?mod=opinion_lead_pos10

Kansas Democrats’ Covid Chart Masks the Truth
The state’s health secretary fudged the data to make the governor’s mask
mandate look successful.

a
abracadabra

今天的WSJ全文

An old cliché is that Democrats govern with their hearts and Republicans
with their heads. But Democrats this year are appealing to voters’ heads.

“Our ability to work together to solve big problems like a pandemic depends on a fidelity to facts and science and logic and not just making stuff up,
” Barack Obama declared last week at the Democratic National Convention.
The Bernie Sanders-Joe Biden unity platform asserts, “Democrats believe we must follow the informed advice of scientists and public health experts in
addressing the coronavirus pandemic.” Democrats are trying to draw a
contrast with President Trump, who often plays fast and loose with the truth.

But Democrats and their public health experts often manipulate data, and
their dishonesty is more insidious because it gets a pass in the press. A
case in point is a chart created by Kansas Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s
Department of Health and Environment that purported to show her July 3 face-mask mandate has been a viral success.

The line graph includes two lines tracking the seven-day rolling average of cases per capita in the state—an orange one for the 15 counties that
enforced the governor’s mandate and a blue one for the 90 counties that
rejected it. The chart makes it appear as though cases in counties that
followed the governor’s mandate plunged below cases in the counties that
didn’t.

The group following the mask mandate “is winning the battle,” KDHE
Secretary Lee Norman said. “All of the improvement in the case development comes from those counties wearing masks.” A reporter asked “if the no-mask counties would start masking,” would cases in their counties drop below
the mask mandate counties? “I think it would,” he replied.

For starters, the two lines on the chart were plotted on two separate Y axes. Cases for counties that followed the mandate are on the left axis, with a range of 15 to 25, while those for counties that did not are on the right
axis with a scale of four to 14. Even a 10-year-old would know better than
to draw a graph with separate axes that compares the same trend.

Daily cases on Aug. 3—the last date on the chart—were in fact about 77%
higher per capita in counties that followed the mask mandate. The Kansas
Policy Institute, which filed an Open Records Act request for the names of
counties and calculations used to produce the chart, created a more honest
presentation of the data going back to June 22.
The original Kansas Department of Health and Environment chart displayed by Dr. Norman.
Photo: KDHE
The remade Kansas Policy Institute chart putting the state’s Covid-19 case data into proper perspective.
Photo: The Kansas Policy Institute

What the data show is that cases in all counties increased in the nine days after the governor imposed her mandate. This isn’t surprising since many
people gathered with friends and family during the Fourth of July holiday.

But daily cases increased more in counties that adopted the governor’s mask mandate—from an average of 9 to 25 per 100,000—compared with those that
did not—4 to 10 per 100,000. The percentage increase is similar in both
groups, but counties that adopted the mask mandate should have experienced a smaller uptick if they were “winning the battle.”

What makes Dr. Norman’s chart more duplicitous is it doesn’t start until
July 12—nine days after the governor imposed her mandate and only when
cases started to fall in masked counties after having increased. The
difference between masked and unmasked counties was actually larger in favor of the no-maskers one month after the governor imposed her mandate.

There are many plausible explanations for this, including that unmasked
counties were more rural and had a lower risk of spread. Many of their
residents may have been wearing masks in public settings. Perhaps compliance was spotty in the more dense counties that adopted the mandate.

After being called out by the Kansas Policy Institute about his chart’s
deceptions, Dr. Norman told reporters in Topeka: “I know that my graph was misunderstood and, in retrospect, I would redraw it different the next time
” but “there’s no question the data is solid.”

McClatchy newspapers the Kansas City Star and Wichita Eagle on Aug. 16 ran a story with the headline: “Kansas began requiring masks, then virus cases
dropped. Weeks later, ‘the data is solid.’ ” The story repeats Dr. Norman’s data distortions. Facts are stubborn things, but Democratic dogmatism is even more resolute.

comeandgo

这相当于一个差生说上学没什么用:我上了学咋还是考试不及格呢?

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: 今天的WSJ
: http://www.wsj.com/articles/kansas-democrats-covid-chart-masks-the-truth-11598483406?mod=opinion_lead_pos10
: Kansas Democrats’ Covid Chart Masks the Truth
: The state’s health secretary fudged the data to make the governor’s mask
: mandate look successful.

r
rdfirdfi

正是。
不是口罩无用,而是“Mandate Mask”这个政策无用。

【 在 comeandgo (春困秋乏夏打盹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这相当于一个差生说上学没什么用:我上了学咋还是考试不及格呢?

ananpig

哈哈…………


【 在 comeandgo (春困秋乏夏打盹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: Re: 口罩效果的实例来了
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 27 10:39:46 2020, 美东)
:
: 这相当于一个差生说上学没什么用:我上了学咋还是考试不及格呢?
:
:
: 【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: : 今天的WSJ
: : http://www.wsj.com/articles/kansas-democrats-covid-chart-masks-the-truth-11598483406?mod=opinion_lead_pos10
: : Kansas Democrats’ Covid Chart Masks the Truth
: : The state’s health secretary fudged the data to make the governor’s
mask
: : mandate look successful.
:
:
:
: --
a
abracadabra


but still Biden want to "mandate mask" on 300 million people, whenever,
wherever.

【 在 rdfirdfi (rdfi) 的大作中提到: 】
: 正是。
: 不是口罩无用,而是“Mandate Mask”这个政策无用。

a
abracadabra


承认“强制口罩”不及格了?

【 在 comeandgo (春困秋乏夏打盹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这相当于一个差生说上学没什么用:我上了学咋还是考试不及格呢?

comeandgo

对于一个差生来说,“强制上学”的确没用;
对于川普粉丝来说,“强制口罩”的确没用。

差生要学习进步,关键在于端正学习态度,
美国要控制疫情,关键在于科学防疫态度。

从川肺来说,自己从头到尾戴口罩就是端正态度的第一步。但是这一步他显然做不到,所以川肺当一天总统,美国就一天不可能控制疫情。

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: 承认“强制口罩”不及格了?

iminosugar

10-14天的incubation time。

感觉这个图不是太过分。
a
abracadabra


”不是太过分“ 是p-value多少?3亿人一起不过分?

【 在 iminosugar (伪糖) 的大作中提到: 】
: 10-14天的incubation time。
: 感觉这个图不是太过分。

a
abracadabra


啊,端正态度。到头来还是个心里战术。

【 在 comeandgo (春困秋乏夏打盹) 的大作中提到: 】
: 从川肺来说,自己从头到尾戴口罩就是端正态度的第一步。但是这一步他显然做不到,
: 所以川肺当一天总统,美国就一天不可能控制疫情。

iminosugar

我说了:这个图不是太过分。

是我表达不清楚,还是你理解偏了?

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: ”不是太过分“ 是p-value多少?3亿人一起不过分?

c
chace

It will magically disappear到头来也是个心里战术。

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: 啊,端正态度。到头来还是个心里战术。

a
abracadabra


很好,承认是强制口罩是心理战术,是讨论实际问题的第一步。

【 在 chace (Time is money, friend!) 的大作中提到: 】
: It will magically disappear到头来也是个心里战术。

a
abracadabra


我没理解。我学物理出身的。不习惯看着图说”不过分“。至少说一句“一个标准差”之类的。

【 在 iminosugar (伪糖) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我说了:这个图不是太过分。
: 是我表达不清楚,还是你理解偏了?

i
insect9

这个是8分真2分假。最后magically disappeared是真的,假的是没说时间。这个时间
少则2年,多则十年。反正最后肯定是变成普通流感的一种,大家和谐相处。

【 在 chace 的大作中提到: 】
:
:It will magically disappear到头来也是个心里战术。
:
:【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
:: 啊,端正态度。到头来还是个心里战术。
:
:
:
:

c
chace

一个是应死尽死, 一个是能救一个是一个

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: 很好,承认是强制口罩是心理战术,是讨论实际问题的第一步。

d
dime

口罩应该是有用的,有多大用,这个需要临床试验才能确定。
但是没人做这个试验,需要好的control environment才能做好,比较难

问题是,强制口罩是否比自主口罩更有用,如果更有用,有多么的“更有用”
我觉着这个问题在没有确定戴口罩vs不戴口罩有多大用处前,都是伪命题

lczlcz

照你这么说,流感也应该强制带口罩啊, 一个是应死尽死, 一个是能救一个是一个嘛.

【 在 chace (Time is money, friend!) 的大作中提到: 】
: 一个是应死尽死, 一个是能救一个是一个

c
chace

也就是川粉把新冠当流感对待就

【 在 lczlcz (lcz) 的大作中提到: 】
: 照你这么说,流感也应该强制带口罩啊, 一个是应死尽死, 一个是能救一个是一个嘛.

r
robertfrost

真像西方诸国的禁枪vs犯罪率的曲线。

其实,主党手下弄出来的这个曲线,不成功是正常的。
因为他们所谓的mandate,就是有的人mandate,有的人不mandate.纯粹和禁枪一个路数,只欺负良民。

r
rdfirdfi

新冠只能当流感来对待。最终肯定会传遍地球。
死亡人多是没办法的事。因为很多的死亡是inevitable。

【 在 chace (Time is money, friend!) 的大作中提到: 】
: 也就是川粉把新冠当流感对待就

iminosugar

不管你理解没有怎么理解,你发主楼的主要原因是那条竖线的位置应该画在哪里。我的理解是你觉得应该画在3-July,我说因为10-14天的incubation time,这线画在12-
July不太过分。我说的哪里不对了?我说了任何其他的没有?

完全限于偏执就无法讨论任何问题。

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我没理解。我学物理出身的。不习惯看着图说”不过分“。至少说一句“一个标准差”
: 之类的。

a
abracadabra


哈哈,强制口罩从关键中的关键变成死马当作活马医了。这可是白等政策和床铺几乎唯一的差别。

认识到了这是“死马当作活马医”是一个很大的进步,是讨论实际问题的开始。

说到“死马当作活马医”,绿葵是咋回事?

川普点名氯喹,再不济,是不是也是“能救一个是一个”。而且没有强制,完全是在医生愿意开,病人愿意用的基础上。结果左媒联合学术界群起攻之。柳叶刀和哈佛脱掉底裤,窜通一帮成人影星捏造数据抹黑。

【 在 chace (Time is money, friend!) 的大作中提到: 】
: 一个是应死尽死, 一个是能救一个是一个

a
abracadabra


我靠原来说的是这个。你这个这科学素养太牛逼了,起始线画在哪里这两条曲线的整体走向都没有什么实质性区别。即使从7/12画起,到最后的大半个月,橙线有两个单日下降幅度大一些罢了。

要考虑潜伏期,为啥不从7/13开始?从7/13 开始画的话,橙线只有一个单日大幅下降
。看单日的话,平均潜伏期是5天,7/3好开始强制口罩,7/10口罩县还有一个大上升呐。

你要是说蓝线都是洪波偏远区,本来R0就小,橙线是城镇蓝区,人口密度大,那还可以讨论一下。但是你连怎么判断这俩曲线的统计差别都不会。

【 在 iminosugar (伪糖) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不管你理解没有怎么理解,你发主楼的主要原因是那条竖线的位置应该画在哪里。我的
: 理解是你觉得应该画在3-July,我说因为10-14天的incubation time,这线画在12-
: July不太过分。我说的哪里不对了?我说了任何其他的没有?
: 完全限于偏执就无法讨论任何问题。

a
abracadabra


左边是实际情况的图表,没10万人确诊数,堪萨斯。红线是7月3号开始强制口罩的县,蓝线是没有强制口罩的县。

右边是堪萨斯政府公布的图表。
iminosugar

擦,这图里哪里有红线了?

偏执谁不会。有用吗?

【 在 abracadabra (abracadabra) 的大作中提到: 】
: 左边是实际情况的图表,没10万人确诊数,堪萨斯。红线是7月3号开始强制口罩的县,
: 蓝线是没有强制口罩的县。
: 右边是堪萨斯政府公布的图表。