Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories
EB-1 ROW remains current in July and should remain so through the end of this fiscal year.
In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August 15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China adjustment of status (AOS) cases pending at USCIS. EB-1 India again advances significantly, moving forward eleven months from June 8, 2016 to May 8, 2017.
This rapid advancement is made possible by the infusion of otherwise unused numbers falling up from EB-5 and the lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand. Charlie is consulting with USCIS regarding their processing capacity and to determine how much of the outstanding demand is close to completion in order to understand what can realistically be approved before the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 ROW remains current in July and should do so through FY2020. EB-2 China advancement slows to one week, moving modestly from November 1, 2015 to November 8, 2015. In contrast, EB-2 India advances more rapidly by three weeks, from June 12, 2009 to July 8, 2009. As with EB-1 China and EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in these categories and relatively low rest of world demand.
EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.
EB-3 ROW and EB-3 ROW Other workers which advanced more than ten months in June, advances at a significant yet slower five month pace in July 2020 from November 8, 2017 to April 15, 2018.
Similar to EB-1 India, there is a large amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 ROW, making it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year. However, as also noted above, this category is much closer to reaching its annual limit than the other categories.
EB-3 China advancement slows to one week in July from June 15, 2016 to June 22, 2016. EB-3 China Other Workers starts to advance again in July by one week from July 15, 2008 to July 22, 2008. As EB-2 China and EB-3 China both advance by one week in July, the spread between them remains the same, with EB-3 Chinas final action date holding at 7.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. EB-3 India and EB-3 India Other Workers both advance two months in July from April 1, 2009 to June 1, 2009.
EB-4 ROW remains current in July. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras advances 1.5 months from December 15, 2016 to February 1, 2017 and is likely to hold at this date through the remainder of the fiscal year. EB-4 Mexico advances one week, from June 8, 2018 to June 15, 2018. Members should continue to watch EB-4 Mexico for potential movement. It is too early to predict what will happen in the remaining months of FY2020.
EB-5 India (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) becomes current in July and will remain so through FY2020. EB-5 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico and Philippines), Regional and Non-Regional Centers, remains current in July and will remain so through this fiscal year as well. EB-5 China (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances one week in July from July 15, 2015 to July 22, 2015. EB-5 Vietnam (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances three weeks in July from April 22, 2017 to May 15, 2017.
Visa Bulletin Predictions Q
QUESTION: In last months Check In, Charlie said that *it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020*. If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?
ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.
Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to *mission critical* processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.
Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.
The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies (and States) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.
The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre- adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.
Given USCISs potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCISs data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.
There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.
However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.
Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?
ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.
Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.
Visa Bulletin Predictions Worldwide EB-3
In FY2020, we already enjoyed the second highest employment-based annual limit in recent memory: 156K, which places the current per country limit at almost 11K. I expect that in FY2021 there will be over 200K employment-based numbers available, which is the highest number I can recall ever having in a fiscal year, and which translates to a 14K per country limit, a 21.5% increase over FY2020.
Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and processing returns to normal, these excess numbers will create the possibility of significant advancement in EB-1 China, EB-1 India and EB-5 China, as well as the possibility of EB-3 Worldwide becoming current. Keep in mind that the next fiscal year is just over 3 months away.
【 在 MrCoffee(MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】 : 我又读了一下，他写了silver lining, : The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be : added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit. : 这是不是说可以到下一年？如果到下一年是不是就是EB1吃SO？
"Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and processing returns to normal,"这个是不是说这个财年没用的2万5 EB 名额 roll over到下个财政年吗？
不是，是指FB rollover to EB 【 在 zhangkun123 (zhangkun123) 的大作中提到: 】 : "Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more : than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and : processing returns to normal,"这个是不是说这个财年没用的2万5 EB 名额 roll : over到下个财政年吗？
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】 : "There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China AOS cases pending at USCIS." : 这句话有点费解 : 如果是指所有pending485等待排期的数目，数量有点过低了，相当于2017.10-2018. : 03在加上其后交的所有485只有2000多，每个月摊下来也就300多。 : (基本上交上去的485都处于面试完等待批准的状态，未面试的百分比比较低) : 更像是指已经current马上能批准的485数量
这个rollover版主科普过。我查了下FB每年有480,000个。2月份全球各个领事馆就逐步停止签证了，加上川普的EO，估计至少一半都发不出去把。那就是240，000个。全部 rollover到明年的话，EB1就是分240,000 * 28.6%=68,640。不知道这样算的对不对？ 感觉too good to be true
谢谢，我找到了。GOOGLE来的不靠谱啊。 Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.
【 在 zhangkun123 (zhangkun123) 的大作中提到: 】 : FB一年总共22万6，EB一年14万个， visa bulletin有说明，
Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories
EB-1 ROW remains current in July and should remain so through the end of
this fiscal year.
In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August 15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China
adjustment of status (AOS) cases pending at USCIS. EB-1 India again advances significantly, moving forward eleven months from June 8, 2016 to May 8,
2017.
This rapid advancement is made possible by the infusion of otherwise unused numbers falling up from EB-5 and the lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide
demand. Charlie is consulting with USCIS regarding their processing capacity and to determine how much of the outstanding demand is close to completion in order to understand what can realistically be approved before the end of the fiscal year.
EB-2 ROW remains current in July and should do so through FY2020. EB-2 China advancement slows to one week, moving modestly from November 1, 2015 to
November 8, 2015. In contrast, EB-2 India advances more rapidly by three
weeks, from June 12, 2009 to July 8, 2009. As with EB-1 China and EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in these
categories and relatively low rest of world demand.
EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits
this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to
reaching its worldwide limits.
EB-3 ROW and EB-3 ROW Other workers which advanced more than ten months in
June, advances at a significant yet slower five month pace in July 2020 from November 8, 2017 to April 15, 2018.
Similar to EB-1 India, there is a large amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 ROW, making it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year. However, as also noted above, this category is
much closer to reaching its annual limit than the other categories.
EB-3 China advancement slows to one week in July from June 15, 2016 to June 22, 2016. EB-3 China Other Workers starts to advance again in July by one
week from July 15, 2008 to July 22, 2008. As EB-2 China and EB-3 China both advance by one week in July, the spread between them remains the same, with EB-3 Chinas final action date holding at 7.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. EB-3 India and EB-3 India Other Workers both advance two months in July from
April 1, 2009 to June 1, 2009.
EB-4 ROW remains current in July. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras advances 1.5 months from December 15, 2016 to February 1, 2017 and is likely to hold at this date through the remainder of the fiscal year. EB-4 Mexico advances one week, from June 8, 2018 to June 15, 2018. Members should
continue to watch EB-4 Mexico for potential movement. It is too early to
predict what will happen in the remaining months of FY2020.
EB-5 India (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) becomes current in July and
will remain so through FY2020. EB-5 Worldwide (including El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico and Philippines), Regional and Non-Regional
Centers, remains current in July and will remain so through this fiscal year as well. EB-5 China (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances one week
in July from July 15, 2015 to July 22, 2015. EB-5 Vietnam (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances three weeks in July from April 22, 2017 to May 15, 2017.
Visa Bulletin Predictions Q
QUESTION: In last months Check In, Charlie said that *it is unlikely that
the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020*. If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of
attracting as many approvals as possible?
ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason
based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.
Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to
the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to *mission critical* processing, which is defined at the
discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases
based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.
Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the
pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the
employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.
The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result
in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies (and States) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an
even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase
actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements
would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.
The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-
adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing
constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.
Given USCISs potential processing capacity and the current status of these
cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in
Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCISs data does not demonstrate significant
USCIS demand for that category.
There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS
demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action
Date to reach March 8, 2015.
However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported
advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand,
sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future
changes cannot be ruled out.
Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach
their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so.
When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?
ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related
issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically
controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there
could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual
limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able
to return to something approaching normal processing.
Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers
this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity,
there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.
Visa Bulletin Predictions Worldwide EB-3
In FY2020, we already enjoyed the second highest employment-based annual
limit in recent memory: 156K, which places the current per country limit at almost 11K. I expect that in FY2021 there will be over 200K employment-based numbers available, which is the highest number I can recall ever having in a fiscal year, and which translates to a 14K per country limit, a 21.5%
increase over FY2020.
Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and
processing returns to normal, these excess numbers will create the
possibility of significant advancement in EB-1 China, EB-1 India and EB-5
China, as well as the possibility of EB-3 Worldwide becoming current. Keep
in mind that the next fiscal year is just over 3 months away.
Summary
1. 老印拿SO
2. 人手不够批卡少 3600（今年5月） vs 6000 （去年5月）
3.今年要浪费25，000名额
4.中国EB1有2000人就等拿卡了
comment: MLGBD
中国这个2000是指从2017年到现在批下来的eb1 140? 后面的SO会给我们么？SO不能吃
掉25,000么
人手不够用
【 在 MrCoffee (MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: SO不能吃掉这25,000么?
2000人等卡 还不快Approve 然后前进
我认为他指的是PD current 的EB1 485数量
至于给不给我们 看看现在到7月底的爆绿数就知道了
如果大爆发 说明至少这2000用掉了
如果很少有 就说明VB前进太慢了 或者只给老印发卡
【 在 MrCoffee (MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 中国这个2000是指从2017年到现在批下来的eb1 140? 后面的SO会给我们么？SO不能吃
: 掉25,000么
哎，批这个要很多流程么？我还是以为有名额就会很快...
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 我认为他指的是PD current 的EB1 485数量
: 至于给不给我们 看看现在到7月底的爆绿数就知道了
: 如果大爆发 说明至少这2000用掉了
: 如果很少有 就说明VB前进太慢了 或者只给老印发卡
这两万5就浪费了还是说会留给明年？
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 人手不够用
浪费了
【 在 oceana4 (aw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这两万5就浪费了还是说会留给明年？
要看体检是否过期，背景审查是否过期，是否还从事原行业
【 在 MrCoffee (MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 哎，批这个要很多流程么？我还是以为有名额就会很快...
25k够所有中印的pending 485库存使用
【 在 oceana4(aw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这两万5就浪费了还是说会留给明年？
名额再多人手不够也没用
5月USCIS批了3600个EB1+2，去年同月批了6000个
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 25k够所有中印的pending 485库存使用
他就不能收个加急费，让这2w5批了么...
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 25k够所有中印的pending 485库存使用
6/10之后很少有人有更新了
我只差个体检的rfe
【 在 rgx(Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 名额再多人手不够也没用
: 5月USCIS批了3600个EB1 2，去年同月批了6000个
收费要走程序，新招人要培训，来不及了
【 在 MrCoffee (MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 他就不能收个加急费，让这2w5批了么...
这2000个中国case是排期已经到了还没批的嘛?
我又读了一下，他写了silver lining,
The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be
added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.
这是不是说可以到下一年？如果到下一年是不是就是EB1吃SO？
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 浪费了
Family based SO to eb
【 在 MrCoffee(MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我又读了一下，他写了silver lining,
: The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be : added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.
: 这是不是说可以到下一年？如果到下一年是不是就是EB1吃SO？
如果也算上没current的 只有2000
那排期应该大进
【 在 maimaimai() 的大作中提到: 】
: 这2000个中国case是排期已经到了还没批的嘛?
60k at least
【 在 MrCoffee(MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 哦，看懂了... 也不知道unused familiy-based会有多少
哦，看懂了... 也不知道unused familiy-based会有多少
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: Family based SO to eb
那岂不是可以全清了？比25K还好？
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 60k at least
"There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China AOS cases pending at USCIS."
这句话有点费解
如果是指所有pending485等待排期的数目，数量有点过低了，相当于2017.10-2018.03
在加上其后交的所有485只有2000多，每个月摊下来也就300多。
(基本上交上去的485都处于面试完等待批准的状态，未面试的百分比比较低)
更像是指已经current马上能批准的485数量
"Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more
than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and
processing returns to normal,"这个是不是说这个财年没用的2万5 EB 名额 roll
over到下个财政年吗？
这是分给EB12345的，不会全清，印度pending的EB2 485就有30万
【 在 MrCoffee (MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那岂不是可以全清了？比25K还好？
不是，是指FB rollover to EB
【 在 zhangkun123 (zhangkun123) 的大作中提到: 】
: "Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more
: than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and
: processing returns to normal,"这个是不是说这个财年没用的2万5 EB 名额 roll : over到下个财政年吗？
60k分给eb1百分之28.6也就是1万七。我估计中国能吃这里面的6500?
【 在 MrCoffee(MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那岂不是可以全清了？比25K还好？
我以为是按照12345的顺序来清...
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这是分给EB12345的，不会全清，印度pending的EB2 485就有30万
我们现在eb1积攒了多少没清
【 在 oceana4 (aw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 60k分给eb1百分之28.6也就是1万七。我估计中国能吃这里面的6500?
之前有人在板上贴了个粗略计算的说是截至本月大概2万2。不过我也是刚开始研究的不知道该信哪个数字。可能版主有更可靠的数字。
【 在 MrCoffee(MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我们现在eb1积攒了多少没清
这个数字差不多
【 在 oceana4 (aw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 之前有人在板上贴了个粗略计算的说是截至本月大概2万2。不过我也是刚开始研究的不
: 知道该信哪个数字。可能版主有更可靠的数字。
这个数字应该还好吧 毕竟中间有很多人没机会交485 而且自从18年三月以来就没有17
年十月之后的人有资格交485的说
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: "There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China AOS cases pending at USCIS."
: 这句话有点费解
: 如果是指所有pending485等待排期的数目，数量有点过低了，相当于2017.10-2018.
: 03在加上其后交的所有485只有2000多，每个月摊下来也就300多。
: (基本上交上去的485都处于面试完等待批准的状态，未面试的百分比比较低)
: 更像是指已经current马上能批准的485数量
那SO是怎么个吃法？12345顺着来还是平均分？还是有个比例？还是看心情.. 话说大佬们谁能去楼下看一下我140的几个问题，指导一下...
那半年只交了2000个485？这还是在好多人急着在关门前交485的情况下？
这个数字太低了，好的让人不敢相信
【 在 Thiskyll (Thiskyll) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个数字应该还好吧 毕竟中间有很多人没机会交485 而且自从18年三月以来就没有
: 17年十月之后的人有资格交485的说
这个是以前某个牛人做的网站。http://eb-stats.herokuapp.com/ 根据140批准量和multiplication估算485的数量。排期算的仅供参考，EB1 485大陆好像有2万2. 版上有牛人算算明年财年结束能前进到哪年哪月吗？
【 在 oceana4 (aw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 之前有人在板上贴了个粗略计算的说是截至本月大概2万2。不过我也是刚开始研究的不
: 知道该信哪个数字。可能版主有更可靠的数字。
先集中精力过了140再研究这些，一步一步来
【 在 MrCoffee (MrCoffee) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那SO是怎么个吃法？12345顺着来还是平均分？还是有个比例？还是看心情.. 话说大佬
: 们谁能去楼下看一下我140的几个问题，指导一下...
嗯嗯，看到希望了，突然高兴了一下，继续整PL了。对了，能麻烦看一下楼下的问题么.. 谢谢
【 在 chenxin913 (chenxin913) 的大作中提到: 】
: 先集中精力过了140再研究这些，一步一步来
如果一个月process3000个eb1&2,2000个pending aos应该不是指pd current，2000个
case算是dependent至少要4000张卡吧
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那半年只交了2000个485？这还是在好多人急着在关门前交485的情况下？
: 这个数字太低了，好的让人不敢相信
这个rollover版主科普过。我查了下FB每年有480,000个。2月份全球各个领事馆就逐步停止签证了，加上川普的EO，估计至少一半都发不出去把。那就是240，000个。全部
rollover到明年的话，EB1就是分240,000 * 28.6%=68,640。不知道这样算的对不对？
感觉too good to be true
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 不是，是指FB rollover to EB
这是两码事
1. 奥本强调5月USCIS因人手不足全部只发了3600个EB1+2绿卡，和中国的讨论无关
2. 奥本明确说2000个"485"，而不是case或140
【 在 t9330827 () 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果一个月process3000个eb1&2,2000个pending aos应该不是指pd current，2000个: case算是dependent至少要4000张卡吧
奥本给的数据是"至少"6万
【 在 gstalinson (gstalinson) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个rollover版主科普过。我查了下FB每年有480,000个。2月份全球各个领事馆就逐步
: 停止签证了，加上川普的EO，估计至少一半都发不出去把。那就是240，000个。全部: rollover到明年的话，EB1就是分240,000 * 28.6%=68,640。不知道这样算的对不对？
: 感觉too good to be true
你这个"一半发不出去"没有依据吧。
【 在 gstalinson(gstalinson) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个rollover版主科普过。我查了下FB每年有480,000个。2月份全球各个领事馆就逐步
: 停止签证了，加上川普的EO，估计至少一半都发不出去把。那就是240，000个。全部: rollover到明年的话，EB1就是分240,000 * 28.6%=68,640。不知道这样算的对不对？
: 感觉too good to be true
有很多亲属移民是已经在境内的和公民结婚，这些人不受EO限制吧。之前哪里看到过，EO一个月减少2万亲属移民。这样到9月底的话有10万左右的名额可以给EB。
【 在 gstalinson (gstalinson) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个rollover版主科普过。我查了下FB每年有480,000个。2月份全球各个领事馆就逐步
: 停止签证了，加上川普的EO，估计至少一半都发不出去把。那就是240，000个。全部: rollover到明年的话，EB1就是分240,000 * 28.6%=68,640。不知道这样算的对不对？
: 感觉too good to be true
和公民结婚的亲属移民没有排期，不在FB统计内
【 在 johann99 (johann99) 的大作中提到: 】
: 有很多亲属移民是已经在境内的和公民结婚，这些人不受EO限制吧。之前哪里看到过，
: EO一个月减少2万亲属移民。这样到9月底的话有10万左右的名额可以给EB。
这2000个485 如果现在已经current了 数字有些惊人了
算pd在 17/6 到17/8之间的如果2000
那17/10到18/3之间会更多 这六个月可能会有10k
如果这2000是到18/3的 那为什么vb不动
【 在 rgx(Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这是两码事
: 1. 奥本强调5月USCIS因人手不足全部只发了3600个EB1 2绿卡，和中国的讨论无关
: 2. 奥本明确说2000个"485"，而不是case或140
FB一年总共22万6，EB一年14万个， visa bulletin有说明，
【 在 gstalinson (gstalinson) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个rollover版主科普过。我查了下FB每年有480,000个。2月份全球各个领事馆就逐步
: 停止签证了，加上川普的EO，估计至少一半都发不出去把。那就是240，000个。全部: rollover到明年的话，EB1就是分240,000 * 28.6%=68,640。不知道这样算的对不对？
: 感觉too good to be true
会不会是这样，从422开始的EO，到财年底差不多半年。大部分亲属移民是走CP的。考
虑到特朗普大概率不会取消EO， 于是就有一半发不出去？
【 在 oceana4 (aw) 的大作中提到: 】
: 你这个"一半发不出去"没有依据吧。
其实有没有EO不是主要。全世界好些地方的领事馆从2月份开始就处理不了签证了。EO
只是正式化了这个事情。兄弟姐妹父母的绿卡大部分还是在境外申请的把。如果EO每个月少2万这个数据是准确的，应该从2月份开始计算，那么到了9月就是8个月16万
rollover，也是很可观了。
【 在 johann99 (johann99) 的大作中提到: 】
: 有很多亲属移民是已经在境内的和公民结婚，这些人不受EO限制吧。之前哪里看到过，
: EO一个月减少2万亲属移民。这样到9月底的话有10万左右的名额可以给EB。
个人认为2000这个数字是指已经current但还没绿的485数量，是PD在17.8之前还没绿的数量，这也能解释为什么排期前进慢 - 这些485就够批一阵了
不像是所有pending 485的数量 - 太少了
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 这2000个485 如果现在已经current了 数字有些惊人了
: 算pd在 17/6 到17/8之间的如果2000
: 那17/10到18/3之间会更多 这六个月可能会有10k
: 如果这2000是到18/3的 那为什么vb不动
你把公民结婚的名额算到FB里了，实际FB年度名额是22万
【 在 gstalinson (gstalinson) 的大作中提到: 】
: 其实有没有EO不是主要。全世界好些地方的领事馆从2月份开始就处理不了签证了。
: EO只是正式化了这个事情。兄弟姐妹父母的绿卡大部分还是在境外申请的把。如果EO: 每个月少2万这个数据是准确的，应该从2月份开始计算，那么到了9月就是8个月16万: rollover，也是很可观了。
谢谢，我找到了。GOOGLE来的不靠谱啊。
Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual
minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level
for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.
【 在 zhangkun123 (zhangkun123) 的大作中提到: 】
: FB一年总共22万6，EB一年14万个， visa bulletin有说明，
如果总的handling capacity只有3600/月，光中国就2000个current是不是有点多？按
这个速度处理中国这2000个current就要大半个月
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这是两码事
: 1. 奥本强调5月USCIS因人手不足全部只发了3600个EB1+2绿卡，和中国的讨论无关
: 2. 奥本明确说2000个"485"，而不是case或140
所以排期前进慢啊 - 这些就够处理几个月了
【 在 t9330827 () 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果总的handling capacity只有3600/月，光中国就2000个current是不是有点多？按
: 这个速度处理中国这2000个current就要大半个月
按这个理解处理速度不加快，8月大概率要原地踏步了
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 所以排期前进慢啊 - 这些就够处理几个月了
16年8月 pd的eb2路过，表示很绝望
因为跳槽错过了上一次能交表的时间 接下去感觉一年都看不到进门的希望
他不是说2000是AOS pending吗，为什么理解为价格PD current这一限制呢
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 我认为他指的是PD current 的EB1 485数量
: 至于给不给我们 看看现在到7月底的爆绿数就知道了
: 如果大爆发 说明至少这2000用掉了
: 如果很少有 就说明VB前进太慢了 或者只给老印发卡
那样的话2000有点太高了，AOS pending是不包括CP的
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: "There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China AOS cases pending at USCIS."
: 这句话有点费解
: 如果是指所有pending485等待排期的数目，数量有点过低了，相当于2017.10-2018.
: 03在加上其后交的所有485只有2000多，每个月摊下来也就300多。
: (基本上交上去的485都处于面试完等待批准的状态，未面试的百分比比较低)
: 更像是指已经current马上能批准的485数量
2000也许是5月到7月Current的AOS
他的数据可能有些陈旧
但是2000这个数字如果说18/3之前的 那排期前进7天完全解释不同
我觉得可以像EB2/3一样组织一下 问问奥本 @版主
【 在 wildust (野尘) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那样的话2000有点太高了，AOS pending是不包括CP的
2000到18年3月的也确实太少了，也许只是他看到的到某个日期截至的数字，很难说，
也没法深入了
排期前进7天应该是考虑了处理速度，同时保证不会倒退，所以很保守
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 2000也许是5月到7月Current的AOS
: 他的数据可能有些陈旧
: 但是2000这个数字如果说18/3之前的 那排期前进7天完全解释不同
: 我觉得可以像EB2/3一样组织一下 问问奥本 @版主
算一下 这些大爷们 假设1个月18个工作日 每天才处理200个 什么材料都不缺 面试完
的485
Dependent基本什么都不需要看 也就是只有大概100个
一个人就能完成了 可能他说的缺人手 就是原来两个人 现在一个人了
【 在 t9330827 () 的大作中提到: 】
: 如果总的handling capacity只有3600/月，光中国就2000个current是不是有点多？按
: 这个速度处理中国这2000个current就要大半个月
-
【 在 wildust (野尘) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那样的话2000有点太高了，AOS pending是不包括CP的
: 03
他就随便说一下而已，没必要overreacted。你想200个国家地区的EB12345需求表，多
少数字，给你看一眼你能直播说出来准确的数字么？
这2000应该不是已经current的PD。
第一，USCIS每次要统计一下某年有多少人pending都要搞半天，协调各个部门统计数据，才有个大概。哪有A表刚出，这么快知道日期之前有多少人的？看看中国EB123都前进一个月，现在又都前进一周，我怀疑他们连中国到底有多少Demand都不一定知道，就是随便给个日期，发个三五六千的，差不多就行了，先发着看看吧。
第二，中国人再多也不可能有印度多吧？中国就前进了那么7天，就2000人了，那印度
10个月10个月10个月的前进，起码得几万人了吧，EB1全给他们发了都不够。
第三，中国今年总共才前进3个月，一个月顶多1000人，还有很多是CP的，485一个月撑死有个800个。三个月顶多2400个485，而且已经发了这么多了，怎么可能还有2000多人485的。
第四，字面意思“485 pending at USCIS”就是指交了485但是没批的，那就是485
pending。跟面不面试，c不current没关系。
我觉得这是一个好消息。USCIS面对这么多国家，这么多种EB12345，同时安排进度咋弄的明白？我推测他们是各个击破，针对某一个特定的国家来个meeting, 统计一下需求
商量下怎么安排啥的。所以某个国家的后面几个月的进度，可能在某个时间点就已经一次商量好了。前面说EB1 ROW 4月左右会current, 连续几个月的check-in都是一样的说法，说明他们当时商量的时候就是这个打算。
前面提到了印度，印度就大进了。说明他们已经讨论过印度的情况了。中国EB123就随
便进一个月一个星期，说明他们根本没仔细商量过中国的情况，随便搞个日期先混着吧。这次提到中国，说明他们已经讨论过中国的情况了，中国EB1的需求明显被过分压制
，后面应该要大进了。
不动会不会可能是我们自己的2800用得差不多了，现在在严格执行SO都给烙印？
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 这2000个485 如果现在已经current了 数字有些惊人了
: 算pd在 17/6 到17/8之间的如果2000
: 那17/10到18/3之间会更多 这六个月可能会有10k
: 如果这2000是到18/3的 那为什么vb不动
谢谢分析， 很有道理！
而且照这2000是PD目前current的来算，那么18年3月之前得有多少啊！
我瞎猜一下会不会就是奥本就是指的是到18年3月的时候已经交了485的数量，然后我们再乘以一个2.5的系数，那么17年8月到18年3月就有5000个demand？
【 在 RichBillions (努力！奋斗！) 的大作中提到: 】
: -
: 他就随便说一下而已，没必要overreacted。你想200个国家地区的EB12345需求表，多
: 少数字，给你看一眼你能直播说出来准确的数字么？
: 这2000应该不是已经current的PD。
5000这个数感觉就比较合理了，以前的库存应该基本上清干净了
【 在 WLJT (WLJT) 的大作中提到: 】
: 谢谢分析， 很有道理！
: 而且照这2000是PD目前current的来算，那么18年3月之前得有多少啊！
: 我瞎猜一下会不会就是奥本就是指的是到18年3月的时候已经交了485的数量，然后我们
: 再乘以一个2.5的系数，那么17年8月到18年3月就有5000个demand？
并不是pd current的485，而是提交了485完成面试就等着拿卡的485数量，是2018年3月之前提交了485的数量
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 我认为他指的是PD current 的EB1 485数量
: 至于给不给我们 看看现在到7月底的爆绿数就知道了
: 如果大爆发 说明至少这2000用掉了
: 如果很少有 就说明VB前进太慢了 或者只给老印发卡
那是不是可以防水建库但是不批卡？
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 人手不够用
aos pending数目就不用乘系数了
【 在 WLJT (WLJT) 的大作中提到: 】
: 谢谢分析， 很有道理！
: 而且照这2000是PD目前current的来算，那么18年3月之前得有多少啊！
: 我瞎猜一下会不会就是奥本就是指的是到18年3月的时候已经交了485的数量，然后我们
: 再乘以一个2.5的系数，那么17年8月到18年3月就有5000个demand？
嗯，没法深究，谁知道他随便看了个什么数字就说出来了。。。
【 在 RichBillions (努力！奋斗！) 的大作中提到: 】
: -
: 他就随便说一下而已，没必要overreacted。你想200个国家地区的EB12345需求表，多
: 少数字，给你看一眼你能直播说出来准确的数字么？
: 这2000应该不是已经current的PD。
: 第一，USCIS每次要统计一下某年有多少人pending都要搞半天，协调各个部门统计数据
: ，才有个大概。哪有A表刚出，这么快知道日期之前有多少人的？看看中国EB123都前进
: 一个月，现在又都前进一周，我怀疑他们连中国到底有多少Demand都不一定知道，就是
: 随便给个日期，发个三五六千的，差不多就行了，先发着看看吧。
: 第二，中国人再多也不可能有印度多吧？中国就前进了那么7天，就2000人了，那印度
: 10个月10个月10个月的前进，起码得几万人了吧，EB1全给他们发了都不够。
: ...................
丫的逻辑就是 你们人挺多的 批不过来
印度人也不少 前进11个月
缺钱导致人手不够 人手不够所以filing date不能前进 filing date不动 导致缺钱
【 在 wildust(野尘) 的大作中提到: 】
: 嗯，没法深究，谁知道他随便看了个什么数字就说出来了。。。
赞分析，完全同意!
2000人应该是2018年3月之前已经交了485正在等卡的人数，这些人都已经面试完了，但多数人应该需要补medical。2017年底和2018年3月之前交140但没pp的人， 应该还没来及交485。 看了以前的485 pending inventory，最多的一个月也就是800个左右，2018年3月的485提交量应该就是这个水平，1月和2月应该少一些，2017年8－12月没批的485还有500多，总数差不多2000。
8月份中国前进慢，一是so都给了老印，二是老印前进11月case太多，uscis人手不够，只能让中国前进慢点，剩下的2个月Visa bulletin很大可能会前进较多。
【 在 RichBillions (努力！奋斗！) 的大作中提到: 】
: -
: 他就随便说一下而已，没必要overreacted。你想200个国家地区的EB12345需求表，多
: 少数字，给你看一眼你能直播说出来准确的数字么？
: 这2000应该不是已经current的PD。
: 第一，USCIS每次要统计一下某年有多少人pending都要搞半天，协调各个部门统计数据
: ，才有个大概。哪有A表刚出，这么快知道日期之前有多少人的？看看中国EB123都前进
: 一个月，现在又都前进一周，我怀疑他们连中国到底有多少Demand都不一定知道，就是
: 随便给个日期，发个三五六千的，差不多就行了，先发着看看吧。
: 第二，中国人再多也不可能有印度多吧？中国就前进了那么7天，就2000人了，那印度
: 10个月10个月10个月的前进，起码得几万人了吧，EB1全给他们发了都不够。
: ...................
18年approved的140一共不到5000，按家属系数2，18财年一共不到1万，怎么到你这6个月就1万呢？
【 在 ubuntus () 的大作中提到: 】
: 这2000个485 如果现在已经current了 数字有些惊人了
: 算pd在 17/6 到17/8之间的如果2000
: 那17/10到18/3之间会更多 这六个月可能会有10k
: 如果这2000是到18/3的 那为什么vb不动
485还需要乘系数么？我也是晕了。
【 在 WLJT (WLJT) 的大作中提到: 】
: 谢谢分析， 很有道理！
: 而且照这2000是PD目前current的来算，那么18年3月之前得有多少啊！
: 我瞎猜一下会不会就是奥本就是指的是到18年3月的时候已经交了485的数量，然后我们
: 再乘以一个2.5的系数，那么17年8月到18年3月就有5000个demand？
我说了 如果2000是Current 数据有些惊人了
如果2000是所有的AOS VB不动就是不给卡
【 在 josephwangj (joseph) 的大作中提到: 】
: 18年approved的140一共不到5000，按家属系数2，18财年一共不到1万，怎么到你这6个
: 月就1万呢？
同意，2000如果是指交了485还没拿卡的总数，这个数字太低了，令人无法相信。
这几年不断被刷新的认识就是对pending人数的估计。
【 在 rgx (Somnus) 的大作中提到: 】
: 那半年只交了2000个485？这还是在好多人急着在关门前交485的情况下？
: 这个数字太低了，好的让人不敢相信
不好意思，我打错了，本意是指被批准140的数量，然后乘以系数
【 在 josephwangj (joseph) 的大作中提到: 】
: 485还需要乘系数么？我也是晕了。
有没有可能2万5没用的名额有大概 25000*0.286=7150个EB1 SO.中印捆绑还能用掉这7
千多个SO。 要是CIS不给力7千个SO就浪费了。
看了各位的分析，信心爆棚。希望后几个月能快进一点。我11月的PD。公司刚给我交了第3次H1B renew的申请，实在是不想再renew了。再过几个月EAD也要第3次renew了。实在是嫌麻烦了。
不快速前进说不过去了吧
难道用行动支持烙印压制老中
等时间到了就知道是怎么回事了。
至少看来未来几个月不会倒退了吧
如果fb过来的名额，是不是也要乘以0.286再乘以7%？