Updated Visa Bulletin Information and Predictions 13 May 2020
During a recent virtual meeting with the American Immigration Lawyers Association, Charles Oppenheim, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, provided some updated information and a couple of predictions regarding the monthly visa bulletin. All predictions refer to the dates in the final action (FA) chart, unless otherwise specified.
Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1) Category, India Mr. Oppenheim expects that the EB1 category for India will continue to advance fairly slowly for the rest of the fiscal year. Fiscal year 2020 ends September 30, 2020.
Family-based, second preference “A” (FB2A) category The FB2A category is expected to remain current for the rest of the fiscal year. This category is reserved for spouses and children of U.S. permanent residents.
Additional Insights into Immigrant Visa Processing Mr. Oppenheim noted that about ten percent of immigrant visa applicants (i.e., individuals applying for lawful permanent residency from outside of the United States) either fail to show up for the visa interview, or otherwise notify the consulate of a lack of interest in moving forward with the application. This is an ongoing phenomenon, unrelated to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mr. Oppenheim also explained that approximately 95 percent of family-based cases are processed at consulates, while 85 percent of employment-based cases are processed by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) via adjustment-of-status applications. Given that consulates across the globe have closed due to the pandemic, Mr. Oppenheim expects there will be many unused immigrant visa numbers for cases being processed through consulates. This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year.
Generally there are 2 types of Spill Over(SO) for Employment Based Green Card receives
1) One is internal in EB (EB5/4/3/2/1) and this has 2 sub-categories as below a) Vertical Spill over/Fall Down E.g EB5-->EB1-->EB2-->EB3 b) Horizontal Spill over/Fall Across. E.g say EB3 ROW less usage will give number to EB3-I & C. 2) Other is from FB to EB which long back used to big numbers. This is big ticket item, I have already predicated it, with Public Charge it anyway was good. Now with Covid19 its will be super duper. The more the consulates and USCIS closed, it will turn better for backlog.
FB to EB spillover does not follow EB category order, AFAIK, let say 10,000 visas spilled over, they will be allocated equally between EB Categories per law either 28.6%(EB1-3) 7.1%(EB4&5) so for EB2 2860 will be given for all countries. As there are 7% country limits, only 196 will be given to India. So 2800+200 -> 3000 visas will be allotted to India in that FY. So for FB spillovers everyone benefits equally, but the numbers will not be so great when people from other countries are also waiting to get GC.
When Horizontal Spillover happens in EB2 remaining unused visas will be given to India EB2 due to being the most backlogged country.
Updated Visa Bulletin Information and Predictions
13 May 2020
During a recent virtual meeting with the American Immigration Lawyers
Association, Charles Oppenheim, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, provided some updated information
and a couple of predictions regarding the monthly visa bulletin. All
predictions refer to the dates in the final action (FA) chart, unless
otherwise specified.
Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1) Category, India
Mr. Oppenheim expects that the EB1 category for India will continue to
advance fairly slowly for the rest of the fiscal year. Fiscal year 2020 ends September 30, 2020.
Family-based, second preference “A” (FB2A) category
The FB2A category is expected to remain current for the rest of the fiscal
year. This category is reserved for spouses and children of U.S. permanent
residents.
Additional Insights into Immigrant Visa Processing
Mr. Oppenheim noted that about ten percent of immigrant visa applicants (i.e., individuals applying for lawful permanent residency from outside of the
United States) either fail to show up for the visa interview, or otherwise
notify the consulate of a lack of interest in moving forward with the
application. This is an ongoing phenomenon, unrelated to the COVID-19
pandemic.
Mr. Oppenheim also explained that approximately 95 percent of family-based
cases are processed at consulates, while 85 percent of employment-based
cases are processed by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) via adjustment-of-status applications. Given that consulates across the
globe have closed due to the pandemic, Mr. Oppenheim expects there will be
many unused immigrant visa numbers for cases being processed through
consulates. This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use
for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year.
Conclusion
MurthyDotCom will continue to closely monitor and report on movement and
predictions related to the monthly visa bulletin. Subscribe to the
MurthyBulletin to receive future updates.
https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/updated-visa-bulletin-information-and-
predictions/
划重点：“95 percent of family-based cases are processed at consulates,
while 85 percent of employment-based cases are processed by USCIS”
所以今年中国EB2/3能分到多少SO？
绝大多数都分给烙印了
From 烙印论坛
Generally there are 2 types of Spill Over(SO) for Employment Based Green
Card receives
1) One is internal in EB (EB5/4/3/2/1) and this has 2 sub-categories as
below
a) Vertical Spill over/Fall Down E.g EB5-->EB1-->EB2-->EB3
b) Horizontal Spill over/Fall Across. E.g say EB3 ROW less usage will give
number to EB3-I & C.
2) Other is from FB to EB which long back used to big numbers. This is big
ticket item, I have already predicated it, with Public Charge it anyway was good. Now with Covid19 its will be super duper. The more the consulates and USCIS closed, it will turn better for backlog.
FB to EB spillover does not follow EB category order, AFAIK, let say 10,000 visas spilled over, they will be allocated equally between EB Categories per law either 28.6%(EB1-3) 7.1%(EB4&5) so for EB2 2860 will be given for all
countries. As there are 7% country limits, only 196 will be given to India. So 2800+200 -> 3000 visas will be allotted to India in that FY. So for FB
spillovers everyone benefits equally, but the numbers will not be so great
when people from other countries are also waiting to get GC.
When Horizontal Spillover happens in EB2 remaining unused visas will be
given to India EB2 due to being the most backlogged country.