Charlie Oppenheim (1-22-20)

c
cpcs
楼主 (未名空间)

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-based Preference Categories

All F2A categories remain current in February. However, per the
January 2020 Visa Bulletin, prepare for a final action date to be imposed
within the next few months across all F2A categories.

In February the F4 Worldwide Final Action Dates will retrogress
due to a dramatic increase in demand for this category, with F4
Worldwide retrogressing 7 months to July 1, 2006.  Expect this
date to be held for the next several months.

 

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-based Preference Categories

EB-1

In February the final action date for EB-1 Worldwide advances two months to December 1, 2018. Based on currently available information, it
remains possible–yet too early to confirm–that this category could become current in the summer of 2020. The final action dates for EB-1 China&#
160;and EB-1 India continue to hold at May 22, 2017 and January 1, 2015 respectively in February.

EB-2

EB-2 Worldwide is current for February 2020. Charlie notes that demand for EB-2 Worldwide numbers continues to trend in such a way that a final action date may be imposed at some point during the second half of
FY2020.

EB-2 China advances two weeks in February to July 15, 2015, and EB-2 India advances one day to May 19, 2009.

EB-3

Charlie notes that EB-3 Worldwide and EB-3 Other Workers
Worldwide will become subject to a final action date in March 2020.
Charlie will determine what that date will be upon receipt of data from
USCIS in February 2020.

EB-3 China advances one month to January 1, 2016 in February 2020,
slightly widening the final action date spread between EB-3 China’s&#
160;and EB-2 China’s final action dates, placing EB-3 China 5.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. Evidence of significant downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 have not yet materialized, but Charlie continues to watch these categories closely.

EB-3 India advances one week to January 8, 2009 in February 2020,
narrowing the gap with EB-2 India, final action date of May 19, 2009,
to about four months.

The final action date for EB-3 Philippines advances 2.5 months in February 2020, which exceeds the “up to one month” advancement projected
in the January 2020 Visa Bulletin. According to Charlie, the reason for this more aggressive advancement was to allow for additional number usage before EB-3 Worldwide becomes subject to a final action date in March
2020. Approximately 36% of EB-3 Philippines demand is processed at USCIS, with 64% processed at the U.S. Consulate in Manila.

EB-4

The final action dates for EB-4 Mexico and EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras hold at September 1, 2017 and July 1, 2016
respectively in February 2020. Given current demand trends, Charlie expects to impose a final action date for EB-4 India as early as July 2020.

EB-5

In February 2020, EB-5 China advances one week to December 1, 2014. As
applicants are not becoming documentarily qualified as quickly as Charlie
might expect, in the future this category may advance more rapidly than
previously anticipated. EB-5 India advances 4 months to September 1, 2018 in February 2020, and EB-5 Vietnam advances one week to December 15, 2016.

a
atiger

"Evidence of significant downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 have not yet
materialized, but Charlie continues to watch these categories closely."

EB2 China大部分都赶上去年放水,交了485,现在都没什么动力降级了。EB3还要继续
快速前进,EB2还得慢慢往前蹭。

想要早点儿拿卡的EB2,还得靠EB3降级,尤其是16年的PD。

【 在 cpcs (cpcs) 的大作中提到: 】
: Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-based Preference Categories
: All F2A categories remain current in February. However, per the : January 2020 Visa Bulletin, prepare for a final action date to be imposed : within the next few months across all F2A categories.
: In February the F4 Worldwide Final Action Dates will retrogress : due to a dramatic increase in demand for this category, with F4
: Worldwide retrogressing 7 months to July 1, 2006.  Expect this
: date to be held for the next several months.
:  
: Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-based Preference Categories
: ...................

c
cpcs

uscis对降级产生的3类demand反应比较慢 感觉3类还会大进一阵 visa number耗尽
再退 像去年财年末 (78月)那样

【在 atiger(昼伏夜出的老虎)的大作中提到:】
:"Evidence of significant downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 have not yet
:materialized, but Charlie continues to watch these categories closely."

n
neosky11

感觉奥本刻意控制eb2和eb3的差距,eb3的需求较大,推进不快,从而压制了eb2的进度,2015年eb2能降级的,早就降级,大概只有eb3消化完15年的才能快进,eb2要么等到
eb3快尽,或者用完才有希望进的快点

【 在 cpcs(cpcs) 的大作中提到: 】

: uscis对降级产生的3类demand反应比较慢 感觉3类还会大进一阵 visa number
耗尽

: 再退 像去年财年末 (78月)那样

: :"Evidence of significant downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 have not yet

: :materialized, but Charlie continues to watch these categories
closely."

c
cornea

eb3已经进到16月1月1日了,是不是意味着15年的都消耗完了呢?
【 在 neosky11 (neosky11) 的大作中提到: 】
: 感觉奥本刻意控制eb2和eb3的差距,eb3的需求较大,推进不快,从而压制了eb2的进度
: ,2015年eb2能降级的,早就降级,大概只有eb3消化完15年的才能快进,eb2要么等到
: eb3快尽,或者用完才有希望进的快点
:
: uscis对降级产生的3类demand反应比较慢 感觉3类还会大进一阵 visa
number
: 耗尽
:
: 再退 像去年财年末 (78月)那样
:
: :"Evidence of significant downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 have not yet
:
: :materialized, but Charlie continues to watch these categories
: closely."
:

n
neosky11

12月份的还没有吧,不知道有多少,下个月出来才知道,最近都有12月份之前的报绿,奥本愿意推进eb3,应该还是乐观得信号

【 在 cornea(cornea) 的大作中提到: 】

: eb3已经进到16月1月1日了,是不是意味着15年的都消耗完了呢?

: number

j
justiceleo

嗯,5.5个月还不够动力,拉开到10个月左右差不多

【 在 atiger (昼伏夜出的老虎) 的大作中提到: 】
: "Evidence of significant downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 have not yet
: materialized, but Charlie continues to watch these categories closely."
: EB2 China大部分都赶上去年放水,交了485,现在都没什么动力降级了。EB3还要继续
: 快速前进,EB2还得慢慢往前蹭。
: 想要早点儿拿卡的EB2,还得靠EB3降级,尤其是16年的PD。

v
virusHIV

排期交流群
t.me/EBGreenCard
m
mingtaiku

所以这意思是,过几个月等eb3吃满了,eb2就可以快速前进一段时间了吧?
【 在 neosky11 (neosky11) 的大作中提到: 】
: 12月份的还没有吧,不知道有多少,下个月出来才知道,最近都有12月份之前的报绿,
: 奥本愿意推进eb3,应该还是乐观得信号
:
: eb3已经进到16月1月1日了,是不是意味着15年的都消耗完了呢?
:
: number
:

c
cpcs

应该还有15年底的

【在 cornea(cornea)的大作中提到:】
:eb3已经进到16月1月1日了,是不是意味着15年的都消耗完了呢?
:【 在 neosky11 (neosky11) 的大作中提到: 】

z
zihaoyu

没太看懂,等于说对于EB2 China,他没有预测,只是重复了一遍发布的排期?

【 在 cpcs (cpcs) 的大作中提到: 】

:  
: EB-2 China advances two weeks in February to July 15, 2015
: ...................

c
cpcs

是的。。

【在 zihaoyu(小阿幻)的大作中提到:】
:没太看懂,等于说对于EB2 China,他没有预测,只是重复了一遍发布的排期?


c
cpcs

是的。。

【在 zihaoyu(小阿幻)的大作中提到:】
:没太看懂,等于说对于EB2 China,他没有预测,只是重复了一遍发布的排期?


c
cpcs

是的。。

【在 zihaoyu(小阿幻)的大作中提到:】
:没太看懂,等于说对于EB2 China,他没有预测,只是重复了一遍发布的排期?