10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin for the Future
EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal year for Worldwide as well as India and China. India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no prediction for EB-2 Filing Date Chart for India EB-2 which a large number of EB-2 Indians are waiting for to file I-485 applications.
China EB-2: Likely to reach September 2012 no later than February 2017. Depending on the EB-3 demand, EB-2 China may advance more rapidly.
Worldwide EB-2: Likely remain "current." EB-3 Philippines: Final action date may be able to advance as much as several months at a time hopefully. EB-4 for India and Mexico : Likely remain "currnet." EB-4 El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras: Any forward movement in the final action date will be slow.
【 在 evangeliaz (Evangeliaz) 的大作中提到: 】 : Source from the website as below: : http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html : 10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin : for the Future : EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal : year for Worldwide as well as India and China. : India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval : waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than : March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may : move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no : ...................
DOS是从实行办法上，导向上，推动eb2降级到eb3来形成eb3的库存，减少eb2的拥堵， 从而不浪费给中国eb23的总体名额。为此他们专门和AILA通气搞了那个memo指导律师如何去搞降级。从政策依据上释疑，清除了可能的顾虑。在具体指导上，甚至指出了双飞的做法（我自己看劳工部对双飞的说法，劳工部是说不能双飞的，这明显和USCIS和DOS的做法不一样。不过PERM之后的绿卡流程劳工部说了不算，所以我们按照DOS和USCIS的这一套来。既然DOS和USCIS说可以，那么F**k DOL.We are gonna do it. 这是我的理 解。欢迎讨论。）
【 在 evangeliaz (Evangeliaz) 的大作中提到: 】 : Source from the website as below: : http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html : 10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin : for the Future : EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal : year for Worldwide as well as India and China. : India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval : waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than : March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may : move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no : ...................
这相当于说了也是白说，no later than没有任何信息量。奥本真的是烙印的女婿，老 中根本不放在眼里。
【 在 evangeliaz (Evangeliaz) 的大作中提到: 】 : Source from the website as below: : http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html : 10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin : for the Future : EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal : year for Worldwide as well as India and China. : India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval : waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than : March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may : move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no : ...................
http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin
for the Future
EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal
year for Worldwide as well as India and China.
India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval
waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no
prediction for EB-2 Filing Date Chart for India EB-2 which a large number of EB-2 Indians are waiting for to file I-485 applications.
China EB-2: Likely to reach September 2012 no later than February 2017.
Depending on the EB-3 demand, EB-2 China may advance more rapidly.
Worldwide EB-2: Likely remain "current."
EB-3 Philippines: Final action date may be able to advance as much as
several months at a time hopefully.
EB-4 for India and Mexico : Likely remain "currnet."
EB-4 El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras: Any forward movement in the final
action date will be slow.
啥意思？看不懂了啊。
【 在 evangeliaz (Evangeliaz) 的大作中提到: 】
: Source from the website as below:
: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
: 10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin : for the Future
: EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal : year for Worldwide as well as India and China.
: India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval
: waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later
than
: March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date
may
: move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no
: ...................
【 在 Fireholder (GPS) 的大作中提到: 】
: Depending on the EB-3 demand, EB-2 China may advance more rapidly.
: 啥意思？看不懂了啊。
【 在 kevinluck (kevinluck) 的大作中提到: 】
: 谢谢！没提EB3的prediction啊
【 在 woaitongji (作萨涅最近) 的大作中提到: 】
: sucks. 2月才走到9月？
: than
: may
【 在 kevinluck (kevinluck) 的大作中提到: 】
: 就是啊，说好的每个月前进3个月呢？这个。。。3个月才进2个月？
该降的都降了啊？
【 在 woaitongji (作萨涅最近) 的大作中提到: 】
: 估计3他没法predict,等着2类降级呢。
【 在 woaitongji (作萨涅最近) 的大作中提到: 】
: 故意压着2类逼降级
【 在 kevinluck (kevinluck) 的大作中提到: 】
: 3类现在在13年4月，今年初已经current过了，除了正在换工作和公司不给降的，多数
: 该降的都降了啊？
DOS是从实行办法上，导向上，推动eb2降级到eb3来形成eb3的库存，减少eb2的拥堵，
从而不浪费给中国eb23的总体名额。为此他们专门和AILA通气搞了那个memo指导律师如何去搞降级。从政策依据上释疑，清除了可能的顾虑。在具体指导上，甚至指出了双飞的做法（我自己看劳工部对双飞的说法，劳工部是说不能双飞的，这明显和USCIS和DOS的做法不一样。不过PERM之后的绿卡流程劳工部说了不算，所以我们按照DOS和USCIS的这一套来。既然DOS和USCIS说可以，那么F**k DOL.We are gonna do it. 这是我的理
解。欢迎讨论。）
为了减小升降级到处上蹿下跳的情况导致他们对库存统计的偏差和不准确，他们肯定是决定缓步推动第一排期前进，看情况决定是否一直honor第二排期（我的理解是，什么
时候eb3收够了一年的库存，管它是eb2降级来的还是eb3新递交的），只要够了一年的
量，就可以停止honor第二排期（这符合对于决定排期是否当前的法律规定）。
这对律师意味着什么？
更多的生意。律师肯定是欢迎降级的。
这对我们意味着什么？
降级是被同意的（甚至可以说是被引导的，默许鼓励和支持的？）
2016年4月统计的485库存来看(数字做了roundup，不要拘泥于那么十几个人的数字区别，要看数量级)，
eb2: 6880
eb3: 880
现在知道的总库存是：7760
2017财年的绿卡名额：
eb2： 2800
eb3: 2500
假如2017财年eb3降级充分，完全占满eb3这一年的名额2500，那么eb2还剩下5260，过
了2017财年，又处理2800，所以到了2018财年，这现有的库存就剩下到2460，不够
2018FY一年的量.
所以应该说无论如何，最晚2017年的10月份，eb2第一排期一定要进入2014年PD，好像
板上部分人的看法是这个时间还要乐观点，在2017年的上半年就可以进入。Let's see.
【 在 evangeliaz (Evangeliaz) 的大作中提到: 】
: Source from the website as below:
: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
: 10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin : for the Future
: EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal : year for Worldwide as well as India and China.
: India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval
: waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later
than
: March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date
may
: move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no
: ...................
【 在 aleisia (古灵阁) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这个关于china eb2的预测真的是一次次证实我的猜测：
: DOS是从实行办法上，导向上，推动eb2降级到eb3来形成eb3的库存，减少eb2的拥堵，
: 从而不浪费给中国eb23的总体名额。为此他们专门和AILA通气搞了那个memo指导律师如
: 何去搞降级。从政策依据上释疑，清除了可能的顾虑。在具体指导上，甚至指出了双飞
: 的做法（我自己看劳工部对双飞的说法，劳工部是说不能双飞的，这明显和USCIS和
DOS
: 的做法不一样。不过PERM之后的绿卡流程劳工部说了不算，所以我们按照DOS和USCIS的
: 这一套来。既然DOS和USCIS说可以，那么F**k DOL.We are gonna do it. 这是我的理
: 解。欢迎讨论。）
: 为了减小升降级到处上蹿下跳的情况导致他们对库存统计的偏差和不准确，他们肯定是
: 决定缓步推动第一排期前进，看情况决定是否一直honor第二排期（我的理解是，什么
: ...................
今年EB2进一步降级，那么13年PD的EB2还能剩多少？所以他自己也说，可能会“
advance more rapidly”。
中根本不放在眼里。
【 在 evangeliaz (Evangeliaz) 的大作中提到: 】
: Source from the website as below:
: http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
: 10/18/2016: AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin : for the Future
: EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal : year for Worldwide as well as India and China.
: India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval
: waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later
than
: March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date
may
: move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no
: ...................
要这么看，美白是不会care其他族裔移民到底如何厮杀的，他这样的40+年老官僚，只
在乎不犯错然后荣休拿retirement package。
他只care遵守法律，把名额给用妥当用掉，否则总是被人诟病留下把柄。而且过程要尽量显得均衡，所以保持中印的前进幅度的适当比例是必要的，是平衡策略的一部分。所以肯定是印度吃so多，或者全吃啊。否则印度要闹事。
要是站在他的角度来看问题，你就会觉得其他一切都好解释。无所谓他是不是人家女婿了。人家只是老官僚不care不犯错不biased而已。叫谁谁都这样做的吧。
【 在 btfath (btfd) 的大作中提到: 】
: 这相当于说了也是白说，no later than没有任何信息量。奥本真的是烙印的女婿，老
: 中根本不放在眼里。
: than
: may
【 在 woaitongji (作萨涅最近) 的大作中提到: 】
: sucks. 2月才走到9月？
: than
: may
也许有商量，但是他自己是没这方面动力的。
【 在 aleisia (古灵阁) 的大作中提到: 】
: 我觉得不能这么说。
: 要这么看，美白是不会care其他族裔移民到底如何厮杀的，他这样的40+年老官僚，只
: 在乎不犯错然后荣休拿retirement package。
: 他只care遵守法律，把名额给用妥当用掉，否则总是被人诟病留下把柄。而且过程要尽
: 量显得均衡，所以保持中印的前进幅度的适当比例是必要的，是平衡策略的一部分。所
: 以肯定是印度吃so多，或者全吃啊。否则印度要闹事。
: 要是站在他的角度来看问题，你就会觉得其他一切都好解释。无所谓他是不是人家女婿
: 了。人家只是老官僚不care不犯错不biased而已。叫谁谁都这样做的吧。