which will push the national debt to nearly 150% of GDP. At that point, interest on that debt would consume 40% of all tax revenues or more, if interest rates rise. Unless reforms are enacted, global markets will, at some point, stop lending to the U.S. at plausible interest rates. When that event occurs, or even approaches, interest rates will soar, and the federal government will not be able to pay its bills, with dire consequences for the U.S. economy.
From the mid-1950s through 2008, the national debt held by the public averaged 35% of GDP.2 This level of borrowing could easily be absorbed by the increasingly global financial markets, and it resulted in interest costs averaging 2% of GDP (roughly 10% of a typical federal budget). Since 2008, the great recession and the beginning of the baby-boomer retirements have more than doubled the debt, to 78% of GDP. If current policies continue, the debt is projected to reach an unprecedented 194% of GDP within 30 years.3 And if this debt brings higher interest rates (as consensus economic theory suggests),4 the debt could surpass 250% of GDP (chart 3) and servicing the debt could cost 7.6% of GDP—the equivalent of $1.7 trillion in today’s economy. Americans of all incomes would face unprecedented tax increases; higher interest rates for home mortgages and car, student, and business loans; and a significant economic slowdown. Unlike Greece’s, the U.S. debt would be too large to be easily absorbed by the global economy. .....https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Riedl-2020-01-28.pdf
Not inadequate tax revenues—which, since the early 1950s, have usually remained between 16.5% and 18.5% of GDP, regardless of tax policies, and which are projected to rise above historical norms, to 18.1%–19.5% of GDP, depending on the fate of various expiring tax cuts and delayed tax increases.5
Ponzi's insight is this: Paper assets retain their value as long, but only as long, as people trust in their value.
A Ponzi scheme has two indispensable elements: 1) Payoffs to earlier investors using funds from later ones, and 2) secret siphoning of assets by the scheme's operator. As long as enough new investors can be found and secrecy is maintained, trust endures and everybody is happy.
But Ponzi schemes all crash. Either enough new investors can't be found, or the truth leaks out. Trust ends, and in a flash perceived fortunes can become worthless.
If you want to impugn the way we finance the national debt, you might liken it to a Ponzi scheme. The idea appeals because there's a bit of truth to it. The first element of a Ponzi scheme is present. Payment to today's U.S. Treasury bond holders is financed by the next ones, who will lose out unless a still-later generation keeps the process going. Nobody envisions the debt ever being paid off with tax revenues.
This spring, U.S. Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) referred to the financing of the U.S. debt as a Ponzi scheme and asked, "What happens when people stop loaning us money?"
But the underlying concern about growing debt is legitimate. Our own Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) worries, "What's a debt crisis going to look like for an average individual?" Good question, but nobody knows a precise answer.
Why? The Ponzi example and legitimate financial markets offer the same explanation. When confidence is broken, asset values can drop like a rock, but such crises are inescapably unpredictable. Think about it: If a financial panic could be predicted, the very prediction would bring it about right then.
For Ponzi schemes, there are two paths to collapse: lack of new funds or breach of secrecy. Similarly, the nation faces two threats, either of which can wreck trust in the value of dollar-denominated assets.
债务利息占全部税收: (150% GDP * x%)/(GDP * y%) = (150% * x ) /y
| y= 17 | y = 19 | x = 3 | 27% | 23% | x = 4 | 35% | 31% |
.............
(1) Not inadequate tax revenues—which, since the early 1950s, have usually remained between 16.5% and 18.5% of GDP, regardless of tax policies,and which are projected to rise above historical norms, to 18.1%–19.5% of GDP, depending on the fate of various expiring tax cuts and delayed tax increases.5 https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Riedl-2020-01-28.pdf
The national debt of the United States is the total debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.
There are two components of gross national debt:[1]
"Debt held by the public" – such as Treasury securities held by investors outside the federal government, including those held by individuals, corporations, the Federal Reserve System, and foreign, state and local governments.
"Debt held by government accounts" or "intragovernmental debt" – is non- marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of programs administered by the federal government, such as the Social Security Trust Fund.
As of May 1, 2020 federal debt held by the public was $19.05 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.9 trillion, for a total national debt of $24.95 trillion.[5][6] At the end of 2019, debt held by the public was approximately 79.2% of GDP.
The national debt of the United States is the total debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.
There are two components of gross national debt:[1]
"Debt held by the public" – such as Treasury securities held by investors outside the federal government, including those held by individuals, corporations, the Federal Reserve System, and foreign, state and local governments.
"Debt held by government accounts" or "intragovernmental debt" – is non- marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of programs administered by the federal government, such as the Social Security Trust Fund.
As of May 1, 2020 federal debt held by the public was $19.05 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.9 trillion, for a total national debt of $24.95 trillion.[5][6] At the end of 2019, debt held by the public was approximately 79.2% of GDP.
Despite rising debt levels, interest costs have remained at approximately 2008 levels (around $450 billion in total) due to lower than long-term interest rates paid on government debt in recent years. The federal debt at the end of the 2018/19 fiscal year (ended September 30, 2019) was $22.7 trillion. The portion that is held by the public was $16.8 trillion. Neither figure includes approximately $2.5 trillion owed to the government.[79]. Interest on the debt was $404 billion.[80]
The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by the public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028,
国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, Congress and President Trump enacted the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) on March 18, 2020. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 would increase to a record $3.8 trillion, or 18.7% GDP.
: Number of the Day: $26,003,751,512,344.91 : The national debt topped $26 trillion this week, according to Treasury : Department data. Debt held by the public is now approaching $21 trillion. https://www.usdebtclock.org/
21/20 = 105%
26/20 = 130%
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/SP3iSAcseTU
................
From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its growth.
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】 : The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by the : public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028, : 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】 : The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by the : public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028, : 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by theend of the fiscal year.
From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its growth.
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】 : The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by the : public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028, : 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
"CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021"
Posted by Phill Swagel on April 24, 2020
......
For fiscal year 2020, CBO's early look at the fiscal outlook shows the following:
对于2020财政年度，CBO对财务前景的早期观察显示以下内容：
The federal budget deficit is projected to be $3.7 trillion.
联邦预算赤字预计为3.7万亿美元。
Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year.
虽然今年以来，有大批国外央行购买了美债，但是从3月份开始以来，已经有大批外国 投资者在大举抛售美债，其规模高达2993.46亿美元，抛售规模达到了历史最高。 .... The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded and contracted over time. During the 2007-08 financialcrisis and subsequent recession, total assets increased significantly from $870 billion in August 2007 to$4.5 trillion in early 2015. Then, reflecting the FOMC's balance sheet normalization program that took placebetween October 2017 and August 2019, total assets declined to under $3.8 trillion. Beginning inSeptember 2019, total assets started to increase.
Danielle spent nine years as a Senior Financial Analyst with the Federal Reserve of Dallas and served as an Advisor on monetary policy to Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard W. Fisher until his retirement. Fisher called on Danielle to serve at the Fed after becoming a loyal reader of her financial column in the Dallas Morning News.
....
Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America Hardcover – February 14, 2017
--------- Cambridge House Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (January 19, 2020)
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】 : the : Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by the : end of the fiscal year. : 到本财政年度末，公众持有的联邦债务预计将占GDP的101％。 : https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335 : ................ : From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public : nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure : it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its : growth. : ...................
Number of the Day: $26,003,751,512,344.91 The national debt topped $26 trillion this week, according to Treasury Department data. Debt held by the public is now approaching $21 trillion.
: Number of the Day: $26,003,751,512,344.91 : The national debt topped $26 trillion this week, according to Treasury : Department data. Debt held by the public is now approaching $21 trillion. https://www.usdebtclock.org/
No country can afford to squander its saving potential – ultimately, the seed-corn of long-term economic growth. That’s true even of the United States, where generations of policymakers have come to regard the long- standing belief in American exceptionalism as though it applied to the laws of economics.
To the extent that the inflation response lags, and the Federal Reserve maintains its extraordinarily accommodative monetary-policy stance, the bulk of the concession should occur through the currency rather than interest rates. Hence, I foresee a 35% drop in the broad dollar index over the next 2-3 years. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-shock-rapid-dollar- depreciation-by-stephen-s-roach-2020-06
The renminbi now accounts for 2 percent of global FX reserves, an important but still modest fraction. Nevertheless, even these modest shares rank the renminbi fifth worldwide as an international payment currency and as a reserve currency. The currencies ahead of the renminbi are the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound sterling. The renminbi and the Canadian dollar share the fifth rank in both respects. In short, the renminbi’s rise has been significant—especially for a currency issued by a country that does not have an open capital account or a market-determined exchange rate— but uneven. It has not proven to be the key challenger to the dollar’s dominance that some had expected it to be, particularly in its role as a store of value. ............... Has the dollar lost ground as the dominant international currency? Eswar Prasad* Cornell University and Brookings Institution September 2019 https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DollarInGlobalFinance. final_.9.20.pdf
Deficit Triples to $3.1 Trillion —or 16% of GDP, Largest Since 1945
The federal budget deficit topped $3.1 trillion in the 2020 fiscal year, the U.S. Treasury announced Friday, marking the largest annual deficit in U.S. history.
As a share of the economy, the deficit-to-GDP ratio rose to 16%, the highest level since 1945, the last year of World War II.
The huge increase from 2019’s nearly $1 trillion deficit was driven by the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, which included massive levels of income support for individuals and grants and loans for businesses. “Unprecedented times call for unprecedented deficits,” William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center told The Wall Street Journal. “Today’s deficit figure is the result of six months of fighting the pandemic and its economic fallout.”
In the 2020 fiscal year, which concluded at the end of September, the government spent about $6.5 trillion – roughly $2 trillion more than the $4.5 trillion spent in 2019. Revenues in 2020 came to $3.4 trillion, modestly lower than the year before.
The cost of servicing the national debt fell, however, thanks to low rates, with net interest costs dropping by nearly $31 billion, to $345 billion.
More deficits ahead: Although a new, trillion-dollar coronavirus package has been hung up in negotiations in Washington, some kind of relief bill is expected to pass in the next few weeks or months in an effort to prevent the economy from sliding backward.
But the economy is in a difficult place as winter approaches, Brian Riedl of the conservative Manhattan Institute told The Washington Post, with much of the easy recovery already behind us. “The growth is leveling off. The economic recovery is leveling off,” he said. “Which means the deficit numbers will continue to be pretty bad.”
紫色 1 day ago 世界越亂，美元越漲。 美國大量印鈔，本該貶值，卻因在各地挑起戰端，讓全球資金仍不得不湧向美國，購買那超低利率的國債，美國又拿這些資金去購買外國的資源、勞動力甚至人才，形成資本掠奪。 這個架構上，美國是不願意見到世界和平，甚至各國內部的和諧。想辦法讓各區域國家對立，甚至各國國內黨派對立，美國再從中獲取政治利益、軍事利益以及商業利益
The damage of the Covid-19 recession will be doubled by the Federal Reserve ’s inability to cut interest rates further, unless it employs massive additional asset purchases, one of the central bank’s top researchers said in a new paper.
Bond purchases equal to 30% of U.S. economic output, or about $6.5 trillion, are required to offset the impact of the Fed’s benchmark rate already being nearly zero, wrote Michael Kiley, a senior Fed economist and deputy director of the bank’s financial stability division. The Fed has so far purchased bonds -- through so-called open-market operations and emergency lending facilities -- equal to about $3 trillion since March. That implies another $3.5 trillion is needed, in Kiley’s view, to make up for the monetary policy handicap of zero rates. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-07/top-fed-economist-says- much-more-qe-needed-to-offset-zero-bound
President-elect Joe Biden said Friday that he is working on a new multi- trillion-dollar coronavirus relief package that would include increasing the $600 direct payments provided in legislation passed last month to $2,000.
"Six hundred dollars is simply not enough when you have to choose between paying rent or putting food on the table and keeping the lights on," Biden said.
The package, which Biden said will be announced next Thursday ahead of his inauguration on January 20, will also call for billions of dollars for vaccinations, tens of billions to help schools reopen safely and more money for state and local governments as well as enhanced unemployment benefits.
"The price tag will be high," Biden said. Asked about a rumored price tag of some $2 trillion, Biden said: "The answer is yes, it will be in the trillions of dollars." Biden said that failure to provide additional aid would result in "a broader economic cost."
Biden said he would also focus on getting aid to minority-owned small business and called for an increase in the federal minimum wage to $15.
Axios reported Thursday that Biden is considering a two-step approach to coronavirus relief. That would involve first asking for $1,400 payments along with money for vaccine distribution and aid to state and local governments and then pursuing a $3 trillion tax and infrastructure package.
此前在克林顿(Clinton)政府担任白宫经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席时，耶伦是主张预算平衡的人士之一。但如今，她谨慎地认同了新近出现的左派 观点：即使还未制定出具体的偿债计划，也需要进行更多的短期举债来扶助经济。这种观点的核心是预期利率将在可预见的未来保持在低水平，从而减轻政府的借款成本。
@22.42
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/2Ot-C_xX6sU
高盛表示，美联储当前的购债规模不足以将即将到来的空前债务（即将发行的1.6万亿
美元国债已获国会批准）完全货币化，如果投资者突然发现债券市场失去了央行的支撑，结果可能是灾难性的。
美国财政部已宣布，美国本季度（本财年第3个季度）将需要出售创纪录的近3万亿美元的国债，为其“直升机撒钱”提供资金。
到目前为止，美联储的购买行为总体上抵消了国债发行，但这种平衡即将被打破。高盛表示，“央行的购买行为应该会吸收大量即将发行的债券，尽管我们预计大多数市场（尤其是美国市场）的“自由流通量”（free float）将会增加，这为中期更高的收益率、更陡峭的曲线提供了支撑。”
高盛将所谓的“自由流通量”定义为：主权债务未偿金额减去主要发达市场（DM）央行和外国官方持有的数额。截至2019年年底，德国和日本的“自由流通量”一直呈下降趋势，因为欧洲央行和日本央行的购买吸收了大部分新供应。相比之下，在2020年的大部分时间里，美国和英国的“自由流通量”一直呈上升趋势。
高盛发现，随着美联储购买继续放缓，美国“自由流通量”的增幅最大。事实上，根据高盛的计算，美国公众将需要提供1.6万亿美元资金，以帮助满足美国的全部融资需求
。此外，出现类似情况的地区还有欧元区（尤其是在意大利、西班牙和法国）和日本。
简而言之，高盛表示，即使2020年迄今为止，各国央行推出了7.9万亿美元的量化宽松
政策（根据美国银行的计算），其中美联储购买了超过2.8万亿美元的债务，这也不足
以将即将到来的空前债务完全货币化，如果投资者突然发现债券市场失去了央行的支撑，结果可能是灾难性的。
高盛指出，“美联储向系统注入了大量流动性，但这还不够，因为“直升机撒钱”的运作方式是流动性供给（美联储）和流动性需求（财政部通过发债）齐头并进，当供过于求时，就会紧随着流动性需求加剧，就比如6月（当1万亿美元的流动性被抽干，为美国政府的“货币直升机”提供资金时）。高盛的计算表明，扣除美联储当前正在实施的量化宽松，缺口可能还高达1.6万亿美元。
库德洛接受霍士商业频道访问时称，不相信中国会出售美国国债，形容美国国债在中国外滙储备中如「皇冠上的宝石」 ；又认为若中国抛售持有的美国国债，将承受更大的
损失 。 他指出，解决中美紧张关系的方法是中国开放投资系统，以及遵守长期以来由美国当局订下的规则。
-------------
2020年05月16日
一贯反对强势美元的特朗普，来了个180度大转弯，力挺强势美元，导致非美货币集体
折戟。这背后有一台大戏。
几年来，特朗普无数次发推文抱怨美元太强，对美国制造业不利，并将之完全归咎到美联储主席鲍威尔头上。
值得注意的是，去年12月，特朗普还在指责“强势美元”和美联储造成了经济疲软。现在，他却在提倡“强势美元”。
北京时间2020年5月14日周四下午，
“现在是美元走强的大好时机，因为全世界——你知道，我们支付的利息是零。这也从来没有发生过。我们付得很低。每个人都想持有美元，因为我们保持了美元的强势。”
特朗普建议持有美元的理由是他对美国经济的复苏充满信心。他表示，第三季度将是美国经济的一个过渡季，美国经济将在第四季度取得良好成绩。他认为，在所有的刺激措施推动下，明年美国经济将迎来最好的一年。
一个奇怪现象始终理解不了。2013年到2018年，美联储持续加息，但美元不涨反跌，其中与特朗普明确表示支持美元贬值不无关系。
然而，去年以来美联储持续降息，而且今年疫情爆发后，美联储把利率降为零，然而美元不跌反涨。就像与美联储做对的一样。
就在这几天，特朗普口风反转开始力挺美元。这么大的变故肯定有很大事件要发生，其实本身矛盾重重。
https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/1163218074/45554c9a00100o8s0
美国债务这么膨胀下去结局是什么？
@8:20
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/kprnW5VadnY
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 美国债务这么膨胀下去结局是什么？
: @8:20
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/kprnW5VadnY
which will push the national debt to nearly 150% of GDP. At that point,
interest on that debt would consume 40% of all tax revenues or more, if
interest rates rise. Unless reforms are enacted, global markets will, at
some point, stop lending to the U.S. at plausible interest rates. When that event occurs, or
even approaches, interest rates will soar, and the federal government will
not be able to pay its bills, with dire consequences for the U.S. economy.
这将使国家债务达到GDP的近150％。届时，如果利率上升，该债务的利息将消耗全部税收的40％或更多。除非进行改革，否则全球市场将在某个时候停止以合理的利率向美国提供贷款。当该事件发生时，或接近该事件发生，利率将飙升，联邦政府将无法支
付账单，对美国经济造成可怕的后果。
https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Riedl-2020-01-28.pdf
Testimony before the
Committee on Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs
United States Senate
January 28, 2020
..............https://www.usdebtclock.org/
debt: 25.3 t
GDP:
In 2019, the U.S. economy, in terms of GDP (PPP), was at $21.44 trillion.
25.3/21.4 = 118 %
...
if 30 t, 30/21.4 = 140 %
"美国财政部已宣布，美国本季度（本财年第3个季度）将需要出售创纪录的近3万亿美元
的国债，为其“直升机撒钱”提供资金。"
美国本季度 = Apr. - June
July - ??
美国众议院上周五晚间通过了一份涉及广泛的3万亿美元疫情救助计划
From the mid-1950s through 2008, the national debt held by the public
averaged 35% of GDP.2 This level of borrowing could easily be absorbed by
the increasingly global financial markets, and it resulted in interest costs averaging 2% of GDP (roughly 10% of a typical federal budget). Since 2008, the great recession and the beginning of the baby-boomer retirements have
more than doubled the debt, to
78% of GDP. If current policies continue, the debt is projected to reach an unprecedented 194% of GDP within 30 years.3 And if this debt brings higher
interest rates (as consensus economic theory suggests),4
the debt could surpass 250% of GDP (chart 3) and servicing the debt could
cost 7.6% of GDP—the equivalent of $1.7 trillion in today’s economy.
Americans of all incomes would face unprecedented tax increases; higher
interest rates for home mortgages and car, student, and business loans; and a significant economic slowdown. Unlike Greece’s, the U.S. debt would be
too large to be easily absorbed by the global economy.
.....https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Riedl-2020-01-28.pdf
Not inadequate tax revenues—which, since the early 1950s, have
usually remained between 16.5% and 18.5% of GDP, regardless of tax policies, and which are projected
to rise above historical norms, to 18.1%–19.5% of GDP, depending on the
fate of various expiring tax
cuts and delayed tax increases.5
IF
debt: 30 t
tax revenues = 3.7 t
https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-government-tax-revenue-
3305762
[1] interest 3 % x 30 t = 0.900 t (%3 ..please see Chart 3)
0.9 / 3.7 = 24 %
[2] interest 4 % x 30 t = 1.2 t
1.2 / 3.7 = 32 %
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/source-revenue-share-gdp
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 美国债务这么膨胀下去结局是什么？
: @8:20
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/kprnW5VadnY
龐氏融資，即債務人的現金流既不能覆蓋本金，也不能覆蓋利息，債務人只能靠出售資產或者再借新錢來履行支付承諾。
.....
金融不穩定理論最早由美國經濟學家海曼·明斯基(Hyman P.Minsky)提出。明斯基是現代金融理論最重要的開創者之一，國際金融危機爆發後，明斯基被公認為當代研究和解釋金融危機最權威的經濟學家。因為早在上個世紀50年代，明斯基就提出了"金融不穩
定性假說"(Financial Instability Hypothesis)，並先知先覺地預見了幾乎整整一代
人都無法理解的經濟轉型和金融危機。如今，金融不穩定理論已成為金融領域的經典理論，並被人們不斷完善和討論，成為政府加強金融監管和實行金融管制的理論依據。
明斯基的金融不穩定理論首先從金融體系內部入手，從債務人的類型結構進行分析，結合經濟周期理論來探索金融危機的根源。明斯基認為，為投資而進行融資活動是經濟咝兄胁环€定性的重要來源。明斯基根據收入－債務關係，將市場中的融資行為分為
三種類型：
（1）對沖性融資（hedge finance），即債務人期望從融資合同中所獲得的現金流能覆蓋利息和本金，這是最安全的融資行為。
（2）投機性融資（speculative finance），即債務人預期從融資合同中獲得的現金流只能覆蓋利息，這是一種利用短期資金為長期頭寸進行融資的行為。
（3）龐氏融資（ponzi finance），即債務人的現金流既不能覆蓋本金，也不能覆蓋利息，債務人只能靠出售資產或者再借新錢來履行支付承諾.
......
查尔斯·庞兹（Charles Ponzi）是一位生活在19、20世纪的意大利裔投机商，1903年
移民到美国，1919年他开始策划一个阴谋，骗子们向一个事实上子虚乌有的企业投资，许诺投资者将在三个月内得到40%的利润回报，然后，狡猾的庞兹把新投资者的钱作为
快速盈利付给最初投资的人，以诱使更多的人上当。由于前期投资的人回报丰厚，庞兹成功地在七个月内吸引了三万名投资者，这场阴谋持续了一年之久，才让被利益冲昏头脑的人们清醒过来，后人称之为“庞氏骗局”。
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 龐氏融資，即債務人的現金流既不能覆蓋本金，也不能覆蓋利息，債務人只能靠出售資
: 產或者再借新錢來履行支付承諾。
: .....
"庞氏骗局有两个必不可少的要素：1）使用较新投资者的资金向较早的投资者支付收益"
美联储可能是最终投资者.
问题是当接近那个时间点时，较早的投资者擠兌美債, 换钱购买其他资产.
@8:20
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/kprnW5VadnY
.....
** Ponzi schemes and the federal debt **
By Chuck Baynton
Published on: 7/19/2011
...
Ponzi's insight is this: Paper assets retain their value as long, but only
as long, as people trust in their value.
A Ponzi scheme has two indispensable elements: 1) Payoffs to earlier
investors using funds from later ones, and 2) secret siphoning of assets by the scheme's operator. As long as enough new investors can be found and
secrecy is maintained, trust endures and everybody is happy.
庞氏骗局有两个必不可少的要素：1）使用较新投资者的资金向较早的投资者支付收益
； 2）该计划的经营者秘密窃取资产。只要能够找到足够的新投资者并保持保密，信任就会持久，每个人都会感到高兴。
But Ponzi schemes all crash. Either enough new investors can't be found, or the truth leaks out. Trust ends, and in a flash perceived fortunes can
become worthless.
但是庞氏骗局全都崩溃了。要么找不到足够的新投资者，要么真相大白。信任结束，一时之间，财富可能变得一文不值。
If you want to impugn the way we finance the national debt, you might liken it to a Ponzi scheme. The idea appeals because there's a bit of truth to it. The first element of a Ponzi scheme is present. Payment to today's U.S.
Treasury bond holders is financed by the next ones, who will lose out unless a still-later generation keeps the process going. Nobody envisions the debt ever being paid off with tax revenues.
如果您想破坏我们为国债筹集资金的方式，您可以将其比作庞氏骗局。这个想法之所以吸引人，是因为它有一点道理。存在庞氏骗局的第一个元素。支付给当今美国国债持有人的资金是由下一批支付的，除非后来的一代继续进行下去，否则这些人将会输掉。没有人设想过用税收来还清债务。
This spring, U.S. Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) referred to the financing of the U.S. debt as a Ponzi scheme and asked, "What happens when people stop
loaning us money?"
今年春天，美国参议员吉姆·里施（R-Idaho）将美国债务融资称为庞氏骗局，并问道
：“当人们停止向我们借钱时会发生什么？
......
But the underlying concern about growing debt is legitimate. Our own Sen.
Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) worries, "What's a debt crisis going to look like for
an average individual?" Good question, but nobody knows a precise answer.
但是对债务增长的潜在担忧是合理的。我们自己的参议员Ron Johnson（R-Wis。）担心，“普通人的债务危机会是什么样？”这个问题很好，但是没人知道确切的答案。
Why? The Ponzi example and legitimate financial markets offer the same
explanation. When confidence is broken, asset values can drop like a rock,
but such crises are inescapably unpredictable. Think about it: If a
financial panic could be predicted, the very prediction would bring it about right then.
为什么？庞氏骗局的例子和合法的金融市场提供了相同的解释。当信心破裂时，资产价值可能会跌落，但这种危机不可避免地不可预测。考虑一下：如果可以预见到金融恐慌，那么正是这种预言将在那时将其变为现实。
For Ponzi schemes, there are two paths to collapse: lack of new funds or
breach of secrecy. Similarly, the nation faces two threats, either of which can wreck trust in the value of dollar-denominated assets.
对于庞氏骗局，有两种崩溃的途径：缺乏新资金或违反保密规定。同样，该国面临着两种威胁，这两种威胁都可能破坏对以美元计价资产价值的信任。
First is the risk we might exhaust the supply of willing lenders. We must be serious about not testing the limit of our credit.
首先是我们可能会耗尽愿意提供贷款的人的风险。我们必须认真对待不测试信用额度的问题。
But second is default, a threat right now but one that will happen only if
our elected representatives choose it. May they have the wisdom not to.
但是第二种是违约，目前是一种威胁，但只有当政府选择它时，违约才会发生。愿他们有智慧。
http://archive.jsonline.com/news/opinion/125847003.html/
the limit of our credit !!!
"庞氏骗局有两个必不可少的要素：1）使用较新投资者的资金向较早的投资者支付收益"
美联储可能是最终投资者.
问题是当接近那个时间点时，较早的投资者擠兌美債, 换钱购买其他资产.
国债 = 150% GDP
利息 = 150% GDP * x%
tax revenues = GDP * y%
债务利息占全部税收: (150% GDP * x%)/(GDP * y%) = (150% * x ) /y
| y= 17 | y = 19 |
x = 3 | 27% | 23% |
x = 4 | 35% | 31% |
.............
(1) Not inadequate tax revenues—which, since the early 1950s, have
usually remained between 16.5% and 18.5% of GDP, regardless of tax policies,and which are projected to rise above historical norms, to 18.1%–19.5% of
GDP, depending on the fate of various expiring tax cuts and delayed tax
increases.5
https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Testimony-Riedl-2020-01-28.pdf
(2)
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/source-revenue-share-gdp
The national debt of the United States is the total debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is
measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.
美国的国债是美国联邦政府承担的总债务，即未偿还的借入资金，以美国国债和其他联邦政府发行的当前未偿还国债的面值计量。
There are two components of gross national debt:[1]
"Debt held by the public" – such as Treasury securities held by investors
outside the federal government, including those held by individuals,
corporations, the Federal Reserve System, and foreign, state and local
governments.
"Debt held by government accounts" or "intragovernmental debt" – is non-
marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of programs administered by the federal government, such as the Social Security Trust Fund.
国家债务总额包括两个部分：[1]
“公众持有的债务” –例如联邦政府以外的投资者持有的国库券，包括个人，公司，
联邦储备系统以及外国，州和地方政府持有的国库券。
“由政府帐户持有的债务”或“政府内部债务” –是由联邦政府管理的计划（如社会
保障信托基金）的帐户中持有的不可出售的国债。
As of May 1, 2020 federal debt held by the public was $19.05 trillion and
intragovernmental holdings were $5.9 trillion, for a total national debt of $24.95 trillion.[5][6] At the end of 2019, debt held by the public was
approximately 79.2% of GDP.
截至2020年5月1日，公众持有的联邦债务为19.05万亿美元，政府内部持有的债务为5.9万亿美元，国债总额为24.95万亿美元。[5] [6]截至2019年底，公众持有的债务约占
GDP的79.2％
The national debt of the United States is the total debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is
measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.
美国的国债是美国联邦政府承担的总债务，即未偿还的借入资金，以美国国债和其他联邦政府发行的当前未偿还国债的面值计量。
There are two components of gross national debt:[1]
"Debt held by the public" – such as Treasury securities held by investors
outside the federal government, including those held by individuals,
corporations, the Federal Reserve System, and foreign, state and local
governments.
"Debt held by government accounts" or "intragovernmental debt" – is non-
marketable Treasury securities held in accounts of programs administered by the federal government, such as the Social Security Trust Fund.
国家债务总额包括两个部分：[1]
“公众持有的债务” –例如联邦政府以外的投资者持有的国库券，包括个人，公司，
联邦储备系统以及外国，州和地方政府持有的国库券。
“由政府帐户持有的债务”或“政府内部债务” –是由联邦政府管理的计划（如社会
保障信托基金）的帐户中持有的不可出售的国债。
As of May 1, 2020 federal debt held by the public was $19.05 trillion and
intragovernmental holdings were $5.9 trillion, for a total national debt of $24.95 trillion.[5][6] At the end of 2019, debt held by the public was
approximately 79.2% of GDP.
截至2020年5月1日，公众持有的联邦债务为19.05万亿美元，政府内部持有的债务为5.9万亿美元，国债总额为24.95万亿美元。[5] [6]截至2019年底，公众持有的债务约占
GDP的79.2％
Interest and debt service costs
利息和债务偿还费用
Despite rising debt levels, interest costs have remained at approximately
2008 levels (around $450 billion in total) due to lower than long-term
interest rates paid on government debt in recent years. The federal debt at the end of the 2018/19 fiscal year (ended September 30, 2019) was $22.7
trillion. The portion that is held by the public was $16.8 trillion. Neither figure includes approximately $2.5 trillion owed to the government.[79].
Interest on the debt was $404 billion.[80]
尽管债务水平上升，但由于近年来政府债务的长期利率较低，因此利息成本一直保持在2008年左右的水平（总计约4,500亿美元）。截至2018/19财年末（截至2019年9月30日
），联邦债务为22.7万亿美元。公众持有的份额为16.8万亿美元。这两个数字都不包括欠政府的约2.5万亿美元。[79]债务利息为4040亿美元。
The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by the public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028,
国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
Due to the coronavirus pandemic, Congress and President Trump enacted the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES) on
March 18, 2020. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated
that the budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 would increase to a record $3.8 trillion, or 18.7% GDP.
由于冠状病毒大流行，国会和总统特朗普于2020年3月18日颁布了价值2.2万亿美元的《冠状病毒援助，救济和经济安全法》。负责任的联邦预算委员会估计，2020财年的预算赤字将增加达到创纪录的3.8万亿美元，或GDP的18.7％。
: 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
"CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021"
Posted by Phill Swagel on April 24, 2020
......
For fiscal year 2020, CBO's early look at the fiscal outlook shows the
following:
对于2020财政年度，CBO对财务前景的早期观察显示以下内容：
The federal budget deficit is projected to be $3.7 trillion.
联邦预算赤字预计为3.7万亿美元。
Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year.
到本财政年度末，公众持有的联邦债务预计将占GDP的101％。
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
----------------
: Number of the Day: $26,003,751,512,344.91
: The national debt topped $26 trillion this week, according to Treasury
: Department data. Debt held by the public is now approaching $21 trillion.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
21/20 = 105%
26/20 = 130%
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/SP3iSAcseTU
................
From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its
growth.
从2008年底到2019年，公众持有的联邦债务总额几乎增长了两倍。该报告描述了联邦债务，衡量债务的各种方法，国会预算办公室对未来十年的预测以及债务增长的后果。
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56165
视频里哪里表达了"不可能"的意思？
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by
the
: public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028,
: 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
"国众议院上周五晚间通过了一份涉及广泛的3万亿美元疫情救助计划"
尽管该法案会使债务问题更加严重，但州和地方政府确实需要资金.
菲尔·墨菲（Phil Murphy）：新泽西州州长警告大幅削减教师，医护人员
Phil Murphy: New Jersey governor warns of major cuts to teachers, health
care workers
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/phil-murphy-new-jersey-governor-
warns-of-major-cuts-to-teachers-health-care-workers/ar-BB14wTk4
......
start 3:50
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/c0aHC2SSteE
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/jCCFx5D8lbo
欧盟执委会主席范德赖恩廿七日提出规模七千五百亿欧元的疫情后振兴经济方案，首度由欧盟出面筹资，援助遭受疫情重创的会员国.
纽约时报报导，这项方案也将首度以欧盟名义在国际资本市场发行债券筹资，然后将资金分发给需要的会员国，堪称欧盟财政统合的一大突破。
振兴方案若获欧盟各国通过，将是欧盟有史以来规模最大的刺激方案，且可能藉由对欧洲境内塑胶业、碳排放、科技巨擘等课税充当财源之一。
七千五百亿欧元振兴基金纳入欧盟长期预算内，必须获廿七个成员国无异议通过，并经欧洲议会议员批准。
...............
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: "庞氏骗局有两个必不可少的要素：1）使用较新投资者的资金向较早的投资者支付收益"
: 美联储可能是最终投资者.
: 问题是当接近那个时间点时，较早的投资者擠兌美債, 换钱购买其他资产.
智门财经5月24日讯，美国正就新一轮刺激计划进行谈判，摩根士丹利首席公共政策策
略师迈克•泽萨斯(Mike Zezas)预计，美国国会和总统将联手推出又一轮财政刺
激，然后 等待进一步的行动直到大选结束。迈克对《CARES Part 2》的基本预期是
7000亿至1.1万亿美元，而他的乐观预期是1.6万亿至2.4万亿美元。
.....
如果第三轮财政刺激正式生效也意味着，美联储将继续为美国的加速印钞，让美国财政部的赤字货币化，
然而新的转折出现了，在上周的5月23日消息，美联储表示，将在下一周内（即5月26日到29日）这段时间内，美联储每日只会购买50亿美元的国债。
美联储一下子降低了购买速度！要知道作为美国国债的最大接盘侠，美联储早在3月13
日开始购买美债开始的时候，创下了3月19日到4月1日期间可是创下了每天买入美债高
达750亿美元的峰值. 近期美联储购买美债的速度在一步步的下降，在上周（5月18日
到22日）的时候，美联储每日购入的美债是每日60亿美元的速度，这周又下降到了50亿美元的速度。
虽然今年以来，有大批国外央行购买了美债，但是从3月份开始以来，已经有大批外国
投资者在大举抛售美债，其规模高达2993.46亿美元，抛售规模达到了历史最高。
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: the
: "国众议院上周五晚间通过了一份涉及广泛的3万亿美元疫情救助计划"
: 尽管该法案会使债务问题更加严重，但州和地方政府确实需要资金.
:
菲尔·墨菲（Phil Murphy）：新泽西州州长警告大幅削减教师，医护人员
Phil Murphy: New Jersey governor warns of major cuts to teachers, health
care workers
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/phil-murphy-new-jersey-governor-
warns-of-major-cuts-to-teachers-health-care-workers/ar-BB14wTk4
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by
the
: public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028,
: 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by theend of the fiscal year.
到本财政年度末，公众持有的联邦债务预计将占GDP的101％。
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
................
From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its
growth.
从2008年底到2019年，公众持有的联邦债务总额几乎增长了两倍。该报告描述了联邦债务，衡量债务的各种方法，国会预算办公室对未来十年的预测以及债务增长的后果。
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56165
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/jCCFx5D8lbo
欧盟执委会主席范德赖恩廿七日提出规模七千五百亿欧元的疫情后振兴经济方案，首度由欧盟出面筹资，援助遭受疫情重创的会员国.
纽约时报报导，这项方案也将首度以欧盟名义在国际资本市场发行债券筹资，然后将资金分发给需要的会员国，堪称欧盟财政统合的一大突破。
振兴方案若获欧盟各国通过，将是欧盟有史以来规模最大的刺激方案，且可能藉由对欧洲境内塑胶业、碳排放、科技巨擘等课税充当财源之一。
七千五百亿欧元振兴基金纳入欧盟长期预算内，必须获廿七个成员国无异议通过，并经欧洲议会议员批准。
...............
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that debt held by
the
: public will rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028,
: 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
"CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021"
Posted by Phill Swagel on April 24, 2020
......
For fiscal year 2020, CBO's early look at the fiscal outlook shows the
following:
对于2020财政年度，CBO对财务前景的早期观察显示以下内容：
The federal budget deficit is projected to be $3.7 trillion.
联邦预算赤字预计为3.7万亿美元。
Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year.
到本财政年度末，公众持有的联邦债务预计将占GDP的101％。
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
.....
如果第三轮财政刺激正式生效也意味着，美联储将继续为美国的加速印钞，让美国财政部的赤字货币化，
然而新的转折出现了，在上周的5月23日消息，美联储表示，将在下一周内（即5月26日到29日）这段时间内，美联储每日只会购买50亿美元的国债。
美联储一下子降低了购买速度！要知道作为美国国债的最大接盘侠，美联储早在3月13
日开始购买美债开始的时候，创下了3月19日到4月1日期间可是创下了每天买入美债高
达750亿美元的峰值. 近期美联储购买美债的速度在一步步的下降，在上周（5月18日
到22日）的时候，美联储每日购入的美债是每日60亿美元的速度，这周又下降到了50亿美元的速度。
虽然今年以来，有大批国外央行购买了美债，但是从3月份开始以来，已经有大批外国
投资者在大举抛售美债，其规模高达2993.46亿美元，抛售规模达到了历史最高。
....
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded and contracted over time.
During the 2007-08 financialcrisis and subsequent recession, total assets
increased significantly from $870 billion in August 2007 to$4.5 trillion in early 2015. Then, reflecting the FOMC's balance sheet normalization program that took placebetween October 2017 and August 2019, total assets declined
to under $3.8 trillion. Beginning inSeptember 2019, total assets started to increase.
美联储的资产负债表随着时间的推移而扩大和收缩。在2007-08年金融危机和随后的经
济衰退期间，总资产从2007年8月的8700亿美元大幅增加到2015年初的4.5万亿美元。然后，反映了FOMC在2017年10月至2019年8月进行的资产负债表正常化计划，总资产下降
至3.8万亿美元。从2019年9月开始，总资产开始增加。
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: .....
: 如果第三轮财政刺激正式生效也意味着，美联储将继续为美国的加速印钞，让美国财政
: 部的赤字货币化，
: 然而新的转折出现了，在上周的5月23日消息，美联储表示，将在下一周内（即5月26日
: 到29日）这段时间内，美联储每日只会购买50亿美元的国债。
Why Printing Money Doesn't Work
为什么印钱不起作用
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/iPer2fGu1Ms
Danielle spent nine years as a Senior Financial Analyst with the Federal
Reserve of Dallas and served as an Advisor on monetary policy to Dallas
Federal Reserve President Richard W. Fisher until his retirement. Fisher
called on Danielle to serve at the Fed after becoming a loyal reader of her financial column in the Dallas Morning News.
....
Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America
Hardcover – February 14, 2017
---------
Cambridge House Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (January 19, 2020)
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/JZz8W8x3HnI
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/bWobMCzu1wg
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/cOX69bB4vJY&t=949s
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/vmpaFiTTZBA&t=292s
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/bWobMCzu1wg
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/cOX69bB4vJY&t=949s
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/vmpaFiTTZBA&t=292s
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/Qp7lODQ-N6g
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: the
: "国众议院上周五晚间通过了一份涉及广泛的3万亿美元疫情救助计划"
: 尽管该法案会使债务问题更加严重，但州和地方政府确实需要资金.
美国国会预算办公室(CBO)周一表示，美国经济可能需要近10年的时间才能完全从冠状
病毒疫情和相关关闭中恢复过来。
这份分析报告是对纽约州参议院少数党领袖舒默(Charles Schumer)的一封信做出的回
应。
CBO主任Phillip L.Swagel在书面答复参议员舒默的质询时表示，“企业关闭和社
交疏远措施预计将削减消费者支出，而近期能源价格下跌预计将严重减少美国在能源领域的投资。根据国会预算办公室的评估，近期的立法将在一定程度上缓解经济状况的恶化。”
....
目前，美国国会已经通过了2.2万亿美元的关怀法案，旨在缓解疫情大流行的冲击
，并正在讨论另一项可能达到3万亿美元的措施。
舒默表示，国会预算办公室的估计强调了对另一项支出法案迅速采取行动的理由。
“为了避免另一场大萧条的风险，参议院必须以强烈的紧迫感采取行动，确保每个美国人都有足够的收入来养家糊口，为他们提供一个栖身之所，”参议员在一份声明中说。
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: 美国国会预算办公室(CBO)周一表示，美国经济可能需要近10年的时间才能完全从冠状
: 病毒疫情和相关关闭中恢复过来。
: 这份分析报告是对纽约州参议院少数党领袖舒默(Charles Schumer)的一封信做出的回
: 应。
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/DU5yr8iAIw8
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/xK2i1cqw7Tc
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: the
: Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by
the
: end of the fiscal year.
: 到本财政年度末，公众持有的联邦债务预计将占GDP的101％。
: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
: ................
: From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the
public
: nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to
measure
: it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its : growth.
: ...................
Number of the Day: $26,003,751,512,344.91
The national debt topped $26 trillion this week, according to Treasury
Department data. Debt held by the public is now approaching $21 trillion.
: 国会预算办公室在2018年4月预测，到2028年，公众持有的债务将占GDP的近100％，
: Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by
the
: end of the fiscal year.
Posted by Phill Swagel on April 24, 2020
: 到本财政年度末，公众持有的联邦债务预计将占GDP的101％。
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
: Number of the Day: $26,003,751,512,344.91
: The national debt topped $26 trillion this week, according to Treasury
: Department data. Debt held by the public is now approaching $21 trillion.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
21/20 = 105%
26/20 = 130%
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: the
: Posted by Phill Swagel on April 24, 2020
: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335
: https://www.usdebtclock.org/
: 21/20 = 105%
: 26/20 = 130%
Highest Government Debt (1981-2025)
•Nov 25, 2019
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/AhvMuxcvlt0
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: Highest Government Debt (1981-2025)
: •Nov 25, 2019
: vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/AhvMuxcvlt0
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/SP3iSAcseTU
6/15/2020
美联储周一表示，将扩大之前宣布的购买截至3月中旬评级较高的美国公司债的计划。
美联储已经部署了2,500亿美元的贷款计划来购买流通在外的公司债，并另外部署了5,
000亿美元的计划来购买新发行的债券。
美联储周一表示，计划通过创建一个基于广泛、多元化的公司债券市场指数的公司债投资组合，来增加前一个计划的购买规模。该指数将由9.6万亿美元公司债券市场中满足
贷款计划最低评级的公司发行的所有债券和满足最长到期日的证券等资格标准组成。
美联储曾表示，截至3月22日被评为投资级的公司，如果符合其余标准，就有资格参与
美联储的购买计划。
...
美联储为何突然宣布购买单个企业债？
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/LNuvmLNWjUA&t=321
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/X1uV-jkxsnA
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/bWobMCzu1wg
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/cOX69bB4vJY&t=949s
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/vmpaFiTTZBA&t=292s
6月22日，美国前财政部长保尔森（Henry Paulson）在保尔森基金会官网发布一篇署名文章称，美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位正面临考验，美国应对新冠疫情的能力及其管理国债和财政赤字的经济政策是否有效等因素，都将决定美元是否能够通过考验.
由于新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）肺炎疫情爆发引起金融市场巨幅震荡，美股在2020年3
月以创纪录的速度跌至熊市区间，造成流动性枯竭，信贷市场风险溢价猛涨，全球对于美元的需求大大超过供应。为了缓解美元流动性困难，美联储（Fed）大幅降息，并通
过公开市场操作和设立新的政策工具帮助全球央行和金融机构度过难关。
随着世界范围内流动性危机缓解，美联储数据显示，各经济体货币当局动用美联储提供的美元额度创下近三个月以来新低，这也是美联储7万亿美元资产负债表意外下滑的主
要原因。截至6月17日，美联储与其他经济体央行的外汇互换额度减少920亿美元至3,
525亿美元，一周前则为4,445亿美元。
除互换额度使用减少外，美联储一些紧急工具的使用需求也一直在下降。英国媒体路透社（Reuters）报道，自5月以来，提供给一级市场交易商、商业票据发行人、货币市场共同基金的信贷余额，以及为满足准备金要求而提供给银行的直接贷款不是趋于平稳就是大幅下滑。
一个最明显标志也许是对回购协议的需求暴跌。3月18日，美联储的回购余额创出最高
纪录，接近4,420亿美元。6月17日，这一数字在一周下跌880亿美元之后，骤降至仅有
790亿美元。这是2019年9月中旬美联储首次被迫干预回购市场以来的最低水平。
但有分析认为，投资者目前对美元的主要问题，是随着市场对潜在的第二波疫情担忧加剧，美元作为紧急货币的需求可能在减弱。
自二战以来，美元的地位不可撼动，美国利用美元资产支付更低的利息，降低汇率风险，因此联邦政府可以承受更大规模的赤字，并赋予金融市场更强的流动性，实体经济直接受益于便利的融资条件。
但保尔森认为，美元能够长期保持地位是一个历史性的反常现象，尤其考虑到新兴市场的崛起和美国经济的相对衰落。
截至6月22日，美国的国家债务规模已经高达26.24万亿美元，也就是说，自2020年以来，新增国债已经超3万亿美元。这不得不让人担忧，美国飞速增长的国债规模将会对财
政预算造成冲击，从而加剧金融危机。
保尔森认为，目前看来，人民币是最有可能取代美元的货币。人民币已经与日元、欧元和英镑一起成为储备货币，中国的经济体量、未来增长前景、与全球经济的融合以及人民币国际化进程加快等因素都有利于人民币发挥更大的作用。
当地时间6月19日，土耳其中央银行正式宣布，自本月18日起，凡是通过该银行支付从
中国进口商品费用的公司，均以人民币进行结算。此外，新加坡代表人士也于6月18日
在陆家嘴论坛的致辞中表示，将继续深化两国的跨境人民币合作项目。
中金公司分析，美国相对其它经济体的增长优势在减小。尤其是2020年全球受到疫情冲击进入衰退以来，美国经济此前的一枝独秀不复再有。下半年全球经济复苏，风险偏好修复。美元作为典型的逆周期资产，在全球经济复苏、风险偏好修复背景下，有被抛售压力。
The COVID Shock to the Dollar
Jun 23, 2020
Stephen S. Roach
Roach, former chief economist at Morgan Stanley and senior researcher at
Yale University
没有哪个国家能够挥霍自己的储蓄潜力-最终是长期经济增长的种子。即使在美国也是
如此，几代决策者开始将长期以来对美国例外主义的信念视为适用于经济学法则.
No country can afford to squander its saving potential – ultimately, the
seed-corn of long-term economic growth. That’s true even of the United
States, where generations of policymakers have come to regard the long-
standing belief in American exceptionalism as though it applied to the laws of economics.
在通货膨胀反应滞后的情况下，美联储维持其特别宽松的货币政策立场，大部分的让步应该通过货币而非利率来实现。因此，我预计未来2-3年美元广义指数将下降35％
To the extent that the inflation response lags, and the Federal Reserve
maintains its extraordinarily accommodative monetary-policy stance, the bulk of the concession should occur through the currency rather than interest
rates. Hence, I foresee a 35% drop in the broad dollar index over the next 2-3 years.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/covid19-shock-rapid-dollar-
depreciation-by-stephen-s-roach-2020-06
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/DU5yr8iAIw8
: vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/xK2i1cqw7Tc
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/FBo88_4zwcI
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/jCCFx5D8lbo
: 欧盟执委会主席范德赖恩廿七日提出规模七千五百亿欧元的疫情后振兴经济方案，首度
: 由欧盟出面筹资，援助遭受疫情重创的会员国.
: 纽约时报报导，这项方案也将首度以欧盟名义在国际资本市场发行债券筹资，然后将资
: 金分发给需要的会员国，堪称欧盟财政统合的一大突破。
: 振兴方案若获欧盟各国通过，将是欧盟有史以来规模最大的刺激方案，且可能藉由对欧
: 洲境内塑胶业、碳排放、科技巨擘等课税充当财源之一。
: 七千五百亿欧元振兴基金纳入欧盟长期预算内，必须获廿七个成员国无异议通过，并经
: 欧洲议会议员批准。
: ...............
七千五百亿欧元振兴基金获廿七个成员国无异议通过!!
歐盟區歐元強!世局重新洗牌!
霸道和王道，说得真好！！
关于5G，德国的默克尔、法国的希拉克、萨科齐和奥朗德都被美国监听过，所以德法才对美国有提防。而英国则彻底对美国跪舔了，早已失去大国的荣光。
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/6BUeJde3Xcg
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/uR4HFDVnM00
The renminbi now accounts for 2 percent of global FX reserves, an important but still modest
fraction. Nevertheless, even these modest shares rank the renminbi fifth
worldwide as an
international payment currency and as a reserve currency. The currencies
ahead of the
renminbi are the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound
sterling. The
renminbi and the Canadian dollar share the fifth rank in both respects.
In short, the renminbi’s rise has been significant—especially for a
currency issued by a
country that does not have an open capital account or a market-determined
exchange rate—
but uneven. It has not proven to be the key challenger to the dollar’s
dominance that some
had expected it to be, particularly in its role as a store of value.
...............
Has the dollar lost ground as the dominant
international currency?
Eswar Prasad*
Cornell University and Brookings Institution
September 2019
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/DollarInGlobalFinance.
final_.9.20.pdf
hutong .... 胡同
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/Mh0vEaac78U
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: hutong .... 胡同
: vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/Mh0vEaac78U
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/Hy1yrJw05A4
请问你是常驻波士顿版的大外宣吗？自娱自乐，自转自回，的确是有够幸苦的，是兼职还是全职，一般每月能赚多少钱呢？
sunny zheng
18 minutes ago
世光说的文化大革命，可能是指的对于士绅阶级和文化精英的清理，打破阶层固化，让文化重新生长、让文明出现活力，不至于一群腐朽的人用老旧的思想治理国家、形成基层统治网络，阻碍国家的改革。周虽旧邦，其命维新。
WenXin Yang
59 minutes ago
万字长文里看出八个大字:百年未有之大变局。
郭大
16 minutes ago
昨天晚上用了很长时间看完了达里欧的文章。36年与中国人打交道的经历和对中国历史文化的研究，让一个西方国家的人对中国有一个客观评价。1850~1950年是中华民族最
低潮期，未来的世界中心在中国这是一个不容置疑的结论。
斯卡文自干五—鼠脸传媒
40 minutes ago
今天看了这篇文，其它部分还好，经济部分实在看不太懂。来向世光哥请教。
Jane cao
Jane cao
1 hour ago (edited)
非常赞成世光对文化大革命的历史地位的认定。但对生活在那个时期的人是一个痛苦的经历
vhttp://www.youtube.com/v/zwxNRd-vOrc
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56598#_idTextAnchor003
不受黨派左右的國會預算處表示，財政展望早在一年前就已明顯惡化，當時預測美國
2049年的公共債務將是GDP的144%。 作為參照，國會預算處預料今年底的聯邦債務將達GDP的98%；而2019年公債占GDP的79%；在2007年金融危機發生前，公債占GDP的35%。
今年疫情造成經濟嚴重衰退，復甦緩慢，年度預算赤字提高，為了彌補赤字又耗費高利息成本，加上與人口老化有關的醫療保健及社會安全計畫長期預期支出成長，凡此種種均導致美國政府債務擴大。 國會預算處預估，2020年聯邦財政赤字將達GDP的16%，這
是自1945年第二次世界大戰結束以來最高；接下來數年，這個比例會下滑，但在2028年之前將再度驟升。 國會預算處表示，歲收成長遠不如支出增加，到2050年，預料年...
預算處認為，政府負債將於2030年之後大幅膨脹，屆時利率可能會從歷史低點大幅攀升。預算處假定，直到2030年，基準10年期國庫票據的平均實際利率為0.9%，之後穩定上揚，於2050年達到2.5%
詳細報導請見： news.tvbs.com.tw/world/1389022?from=Copy_content
Deficit Triples to $3.1 Trillion —or 16% of GDP, Largest Since 1945
The federal budget deficit topped $3.1 trillion in the 2020 fiscal year, the U.S. Treasury announced Friday, marking the largest annual deficit in U.S. history.
As a share of the economy, the deficit-to-GDP ratio rose to 16%, the highest level since 1945, the last year of World War II.
The huge increase from 2019’s nearly $1 trillion deficit was driven by the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, which included massive
levels of income support for individuals and grants and loans for businesses. “Unprecedented times call for unprecedented deficits,” William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center told The Wall Street Journal. “Today’s
deficit figure is the result of six months of fighting the pandemic and its economic fallout.”
In the 2020 fiscal year, which concluded at the end of September, the
government spent about $6.5 trillion – roughly $2 trillion more than the $4.5 trillion spent in 2019. Revenues in 2020 came to $3.4 trillion, modestly lower than the year before.
The cost of servicing the national debt fell, however, thanks to low rates, with net interest costs dropping by nearly $31 billion, to $345 billion.
More deficits ahead: Although a new, trillion-dollar coronavirus package has been hung up in negotiations in Washington, some kind of relief bill is
expected to pass in the next few weeks or months in an effort to prevent the economy from sliding backward.
But the economy is in a difficult place as winter approaches, Brian Riedl of the conservative Manhattan Institute told The Washington Post, with much of the easy recovery already behind us. “The growth is leveling off. The
economic recovery is leveling off,” he said. “Which means the deficit
numbers will continue to be pretty bad.”
紫色
1 day ago
世界越亂，美元越漲。
美國大量印鈔，本該貶值，卻因在各地挑起戰端，讓全球資金仍不得不湧向美國，購買那超低利率的國債，美國又拿這些資金去購買外國的資源、勞動力甚至人才，形成資本掠奪。
這個架構上，美國是不願意見到世界和平，甚至各國內部的和諧。想辦法讓各區域國家對立，甚至各國國內黨派對立，美國再從中獲取政治利益、軍事利益以及商業利益
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/8qorLoLRxgk
The damage of the Covid-19 recession will be doubled by the Federal Reserve
’s inability to cut interest rates further, unless it employs massive
additional asset purchases, one of the central bank’s top researchers said in a new paper.
Bond purchases equal to 30% of U.S. economic output, or about $6.5 trillion, are required to offset the impact of the Fed’s benchmark rate already
being nearly zero, wrote Michael Kiley, a senior Fed economist and deputy
director of the bank’s financial stability division. The Fed has so far
purchased bonds -- through so-called open-market operations and emergency
lending facilities -- equal to about $3 trillion since March. That implies
another $3.5 trillion is needed, in Kiley’s view, to make up for the
monetary policy handicap of zero rates.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-07/top-fed-economist-says-
much-more-qe-needed-to-offset-zero-bound
2019 GDP 21,428 trillion x 30% = 6.428 trillion
@11:00
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/iV6YU3cDGT8
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/XbBFoCZYHCY
Biden Calls for Trillions More in Coronavirus Aid
President-elect Joe Biden said Friday that he is working on a new multi-
trillion-dollar coronavirus relief package that would include increasing the $600 direct payments provided in legislation passed last month to $2,000.
"Six hundred dollars is simply not enough when you have to choose between
paying rent or putting food on the table and keeping the lights on," Biden
said.
The package, which Biden said will be announced next Thursday ahead of his
inauguration on January 20, will also call for billions of dollars for
vaccinations, tens of billions to help schools reopen safely and more money for state and local governments as well as enhanced unemployment benefits.
"The price tag will be high," Biden said. Asked about a rumored price tag of some $2 trillion, Biden said: "The answer is yes, it will be in the
trillions of dollars." Biden said that failure to provide additional aid
would result in "a broader economic cost."
Biden said he would also focus on getting aid to minority-owned small
business and called for an increase in the federal minimum wage to $15.
Axios reported Thursday that Biden is considering a two-step approach to
coronavirus relief. That would involve first asking for $1,400 payments
along with money for vaccine distribution and aid to state and local
governments and then pursuing a $3 trillion tax and infrastructure package.
vhttps://www.youtube.com/v/Tvejrvz_-L4
在美国国会本周将就耶伦(Janet Yellen)担任财政部长一职举行的听证会上，她将需要回答一个大问题：多少债务才算多？
在过去的四年里，***公众持有***的美国政府债务增加了7万亿美元，达到21.6万亿美
元。候任总统拜登(Joe Biden)提出的支出计划可能令政府债务在未来一年进一步增加
数万亿美元。美国目前的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比为100.1%，债务规模已超过年
度经济产出，使美国成为与希腊、意大利和日本等经济体为伍的高负债国家。
此前在克林顿(Clinton)政府担任白宫经济顾问委员会(Council of Economic Advisers)主席时，耶伦是主张预算平衡的人士之一。但如今，她谨慎地认同了新近出现的左派
观点：即使还未制定出具体的偿债计划，也需要进行更多的短期举债来扶助经济。这种观点的核心是预期利率将在可预见的未来保持在低水平，从而减轻政府的借款成本。
...
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
【 在 gogo2004 (挑灯看剑) 的大作中提到: 】
: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56598#_idTextAnchor003
: 不受黨派左右的國會預算處表示，財政展望早在一年前就已明顯惡化，當時預測美國: 2049年的公共債務將是GDP的144%。 作為參照，國會預算處預料今年底的聯邦債務將達
: GDP的98%；而2019年公債占GDP的79%；在2007年金融危機發生前，公債占GDP的35%。
: 今年疫情造成經濟嚴重衰退，復甦緩慢，年度預算赤字提高，為了彌補赤字又耗費高利
: 息成本，加上與人口老化有關的醫療保健及社會安全計畫長期預期支出成長，凡此種種
: 均導致美國政府債務擴大。 國會預算處預估，2020年聯邦財政赤字將達GDP的16%，這
: 是自1945年第二次世界大戰結束以來最高；接下來數年，這個比例會下滑，但在2028年
: 之前將再度驟升。 國會預算處表示，歲收成長遠不如支出增加，到2050年，預料年...
: 預算處認為，政府負債將於2030年之後大幅膨脹，屆時利率可能會從歷史低點大幅攀升
: ...................