“Our decisions are based on careful modelling. We will only introduce measures that are supported by clinical and scientific evidence.” https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/ “For herd immunity to kick in, the U.K. government said that about 60% of the population would need to contract the virus. At that point, the rate of transmissions drops enough to protect the remaining 40% of the population from contracting the virus.”
【 在 magliner (magliner) 的大作中提到: 】 : https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-government-announces-moving- out- : of-contain-phase-and-into-delay : “Our decisions are based on careful modelling. : We will only introduce measures that are supported by clinical and : scientific evidence.” : https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/ : “For herd immunity to kick in, the U.K. government said that about 60% of : the population would need to contract the virus. At that point, the rate of : transmissions drops enough to protect the remaining 40% of the population : from contracting the virus.” : ...................
“Our decisions are based on careful modelling.
We will only introduce measures that are supported by clinical and
scientific evidence.”
https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/
“For herd immunity to kick in, the U.K. government said that about 60% of
the population would need to contract the virus. At that point, the rate of transmissions drops enough to protect the remaining 40% of the population
from contracting the virus.”
这是怎么个思路 ？ 我还没转过来。
R0是3的情况下。assume你周围2个人已经被传染过了，所以不会得了。那么R0就小于1
了。这个传染病就指数衰亡了。
【 在 magliner (magliner) 的大作中提到: 】
: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-government-announces-moving-
out-
: of-contain-phase-and-into-delay
: “Our decisions are based on careful modelling.
: We will only introduce measures that are supported by clinical and
: scientific evidence.”
: https://fortune.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-uk-cases-herd-immunity-covid-19/
: “For herd immunity to kick in, the U.K. government said that about 60% of
: the population would need to contract the virus. At that point, the rate
of
: transmissions drops enough to protect the remaining 40% of the population : from contracting the virus.”
: ...................
这思路听起来怪怪的。 是不是说10个人里面选5个志愿者， 主动被传染，过两个星期
活着，恭喜你有抗体了，嗝儿了，追认为烈士，家属有抚恤金。
英国人这个思路，我是理解不了。 也许在历史尺度来看是对的， 就好比结核杆菌，和人类斗争上百年，结果和人类共生，携带这种细菌的人比例还不低， 大部分时间细菌
还是潜伏在人体里，不会发病，但总是个定时炸弹，什么药都排除不了，没法根治。
和脚气一样， 没法根治，但也不会要你命。
但把这个事实作为公共政策， 超出我的理解。 不然可以招募志愿者嘛，或者外国人，移民到英国，英国人给福利，给身份，让他主动感染病毒，产生抗体，保护宗主国。
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us
https://assets.weforum.org/editor/y_
xylj9tjb2thwybhkmYc4kjb6AZGdW43HXdd4z7rrc.jpg
你问的是数学还是公共政策？
公共政策的话，那不知道英国几个呼吸机的情况下，无法判断的。
【 在 magliner (magliner) 的大作中提到: 】
: 英国人这个思路，我是理解不了。 也许在历史尺度来看是对的， 就好比结核杆菌，和
: 人类斗争上百年，结果和人类共生，携带这种细菌的人比例还不低， 大部分时间细菌
: 还是潜伏在人体里，不会发病，但总是个定时炸弹，什么药都排除不了，没法根治。
: 和脚气一样， 没法根治，但也不会要你命。
: 但把这个事实作为公共政策， 超出我的理解。 不然可以招募志愿者嘛，或者外国人，
: 移民到英国，英国人给福利，给身份，让他主动感染病毒，产生抗体，保护宗主国。: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-
really-
: protect-us
: https://assets.weforum.org/editor/y_
: xylj9tjb2thwybhkmYc4kjb6AZGdW43HXdd4z7rrc.jpg