FLAG: Trump just directed his team to fire the Commissioner of Labor Statistics over the latest jobs numbers reports. Trump orders firing of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, alleging data manipulation
dukenyc125 发表于 2025-08-01 14:33 FLAG: Trump just directed his team to fire the Commissioner of Labor Statistics over the latest jobs numbers reports. Trump orders firing of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, alleging data manipulation
回复 1楼 dukenyc125 的帖子 WSJ 的解释，一半的数字减少是因为公立学校放暑假。 So what happened? Monthly payroll numbers come from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ voluntary, monthly survey of 121,000 businesses and government agencies that employ roughly 26% of all nonfarm employees. It extrapolates the responses to produce estimates for the whole workforce. In a typical month, BLS hears back from around 60% of the establishments in its sample in time for that month’s jobs report. Most of the rest normally respond in the next month or two, leading to routine revisions. Claire Mersol, an economist at the BLS, said the collection rate in the June establishment survey was normal at 59.5%. Government agencies and large employers are overrepresented among respondents to the BLS establishment survey. Much of the revision to May and June payroll numbers was due to public schools, which employed 109,100 fewer people in June than BLS believed at the time. But the late responses from other industries also skewed negative. “Typically, the monthly revisions have offsetting movements within industries - one goes up, one goes down,” Mersol said. “In June, most revisions were negative.” After incorporation of the weaker June data and new July estimates, weakness was spread back through May due to a statistical methodology called concurrent seasonal adjustment. “Most of the revision in May is due to routine recalculation of seasonal factors,” Mersol said.
SophieHowl 发表于 2025-08-01 15:25 回复 1楼 dukenyc125 的帖子 WSJ 的解释，一半的数字减少是因为公立学校放暑假。 So what happened? Monthly payroll numbers come from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ voluntary, monthly survey of 121,000 businesses and government agencies that employ roughly 26% of all nonfarm employees. It extrapolates the responses to produce estimates for the whole workforce. In a typical month, BLS hears back from around 60% of the establishments in its sample in time for that month’s jobs report. Most of the rest normally respond in the next month or two, leading to routine revisions. Claire Mersol, an economist at the BLS, said the collection rate in the June establishment survey was normal at 59.5%. Government agencies and large employers are overrepresented among respondents to the BLS establishment survey. Much of the revision to May and June payroll numbers was due to public schools, which employed 109,100 fewer people in June than BLS believed at the time. But the late responses from other industries also skewed negative. “Typically, the monthly revisions have offsetting movements within industries - one goes up, one goes down,” Mersol said. “In June, most revisions were negative.” After incorporation of the weaker June data and new July estimates, weakness was spread back through May due to a statistical methodology called concurrent seasonal adjustment. “Most of the revision in May is due to routine recalculation of seasonal factors,” Mersol said.
SophieHowl 发表于 2025-08-01 15:25 回复 1楼 dukenyc125 的帖子 WSJ 的解释，一半的数字减少是因为公立学校放暑假。 So what happened? Monthly payroll numbers come from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ voluntary, monthly survey of 121,000 businesses and government agencies that employ roughly 26% of all nonfarm employees. It extrapolates the responses to produce estimates for the whole workforce. In a typical month, BLS hears back from around 60% of the establishments in its sample in time for that month’s jobs report. Most of the rest normally respond in the next month or two, leading to routine revisions. Claire Mersol, an economist at the BLS, said the collection rate in the June establishment survey was normal at 59.5%. Government agencies and large employers are overrepresented among respondents to the BLS establishment survey. Much of the revision to May and June payroll numbers was due to public schools, which employed 109,100 fewer people in June than BLS believed at the time. But the late responses from other industries also skewed negative. “Typically, the monthly revisions have offsetting movements within industries - one goes up, one goes down,” Mersol said. “In June, most revisions were negative.” After incorporation of the weaker June data and new July estimates, weakness was spread back through May due to a statistical methodology called concurrent seasonal adjustment. “Most of the revision in May is due to routine recalculation of seasonal factors,” Mersol said.
Trump orders firing of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, alleging data manipulation
发现问题的人先创造了问题怎么办？
low啊
对他不利的就是假的
对他有利的都是真的
你们真是忠诚
真的。打不过就加入吧。和土共勾兑在一起剥削剩下的国家就好了。最多给大鹅扔块骨头，摆平其他国家不是分分钟的事情吗。
床铺可是生意场上破产6次闯过来的，不是小学生，难道还要和小学生这些治国精髓？
这方面，你太小看川普了。
以后只有好数据了。
伟大领袖亮出了他隐藏30年的数据科学家的身份，带领人民从一个胜利走向下一个胜利
其实到美国快衰落时，你猛然发现，中国做的真好
他怒啥，不是正好可以降息
相信BLS是legacy传统，老跑不要担责，有BLS顶着，那是川普的政府机购
相信AD P第三方机构，标新立异，一旦错了，老炮可是裸着被攻击
你在大公司呆过的话，看到官僚这种做法，有什么不能理解的？
当年炒股后开始关心各类数据，慢慢的就发现了规律，很多很好的数据，搞得股市大涨，可是过一两个月就大幅修正。那时候没人关心了。那时候就知道美国的第一版数据纯粹就是按需发布。搞不好和你们家收电费一样，每个月估个数字，年底来抄表统一纠正一下
这都吹得出来？脸皮真厚啊
他只要让手下的人去查一下，看看不一致的原因是什么，他有的是资源。他确实可能是惯性思维，但是这种惯性思维如果不出问题，当然没事，但出了问题，就应该被追责了。
他这位置上就应该想的比普通人多一点，当数据不一致时，应该搞清楚为什么，而不是随便选一个去相信。（普通人可以随便选一个去相信，那是因为没有能力去查证）
修正数据是常事，但这次也太离谱了，下调90%，我不记得这种事发生过。
昨天听到Powell insist using official data from labor department, 讲话的语气可把我恶心坏了，就是一个纯粹的官僚，不是他的责任就行了
他想的是关税之后要有通货膨胀。有问题吗？要不是老川搞关税现在估计就降息了
局长造假的最大收益方川普， 这么一闹仿佛自己是受害者
真正受害的是美国人，这种统计机构的公信力被摧毁了， 政策制定又要依靠这种混乱的数据， 比如加息降息， 想想都可怕
他是私人机构的头，政府能追他啥责？ 靠普通民众的嘴炮？
他背后的金融业老板，在这种大翻飞的失真数据下，估计乐呵呵数钱捏。
还有，川普也感谢他前两个月用了漂亮的BLS数据，可以大吹特吹自己政绩捏
首先我们在讨论 BLS 的就业数据的可靠性，如果数据出现大的偏差，是不是应该追责？6月份BLS的数据和当时私人公司 ADP 发表的数据，严重不和，作为联储主席，是不是应该派人去搞清楚 为什么相差这么大？
通货膨胀是完全另外一个问题。你要是想讨论，可以另外开题。
智商方面确实不如小学生.
WSJ 的解释，一半的数字减少是因为公立学校放暑假。
So what happened?
Monthly payroll numbers come from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ voluntary, monthly survey of 121,000 businesses and government agencies that employ roughly 26% of all nonfarm employees. It extrapolates the responses to produce estimates for the whole workforce.
In a typical month, BLS hears back from around 60% of the establishments in its sample in time for that month’s jobs report. Most of the rest normally respond in the next month or two, leading to routine revisions. Claire Mersol, an economist at the BLS, said the collection rate in the June establishment survey was normal at 59.5%.
Government agencies and large employers are overrepresented among respondents to the BLS establishment survey. Much of the revision to May and June payroll numbers was due to public schools, which employed 109,100 fewer people in June than BLS believed at the time. But the late responses from other industries also skewed negative.
“Typically, the monthly revisions have offsetting movements within industries - one goes up, one goes down,” Mersol said. “In June, most revisions were negative.”
After incorporation of the weaker June data and new July estimates, weakness was spread back through May due to a statistical methodology called concurrent seasonal adjustment. “Most of the revision in May is due to routine recalculation of seasonal factors,” Mersol said.
我也觉得，第一的国家和第二的国家联手瓜分世界不好嘛，4:6开好嘞
川普这个人，对他的白人奴隶主阶级，还是衷心耿耿，掏心掏肺的。
ADP的样本更小，BLS反而是更准确的数据。而且第一时间就有多家新闻分析了两者差距的来源，比如公立学校的数据。这点我很有印象，因为群里讨论了。我不信老鲍会不知道。
我感到很奇怪的是这是啥事故吗？这不就是技术性问题。ADP躲过这个误差就是因为不受到州政府和公立学校数据的影响，又不是BLS人为造假。政府官员人为造假把“较差”的数据延后一两个月放出来的动机是啥？保卫川普两个月，现在保卫不动了就被砍了？或者抵抗川普的降息需求两个月？仔细想想在逻辑上是不通的。
而且是preliminary数据，本就需要修正，现在不就修正了？所以这有啥可以硬造出来一个政治责任？这个国家越来越政治凌驾一切。
不推出一个人怎么平民愤？ 不平民愤就愤到橘子头身上了
白宫的算盘打的全世界都听见了
统计局长造假对局长他自己的意义在哪儿？完全没有动机啊
你是让联储去查而不是政府部门去核实？
贼喊捉贼。
国债利息太高了，为了政绩好看，管不了通胀和老百姓死活，一定要立刻马上降息，最好到1%。
建议把 GDP 和通胀的数据也一并查一查，别只查差数据！
今年第一次公立学校放暑假吗？
太多了 得灭霸来
BS, 统计模型做seasonal adjustment,不是基本常识吗。搞砸了，就是搞砸了，不用解释。
不要太感性， 在美国，老鲍的工作态度我们要好好学习
统计局局长这种冲前面表现的容易背后中枪， 死于非命
今年前6个月， 头条号称增加了接近一百万职位， 修正下， 一半没了
这不是一次俩次造假， 这是持续不断的
川普吹的什么就业增加， 现在听起来讽刺，老羞成怒啊
因为这个月预计11万只有7万3，也顶不住啊，上个月1万4你想想这个月能7万3吗
就怕和大法退党一样，最后数字都慢慢逼近全国人口数字了
说真的这两 现在都是资本家当权 合伙剥削世界人民 其实是好不快活的
都跟某些人一样不爱学习，不拼大学，只知道崇拜歌星影星橄榄球明星，工作了也放羊？那美国就完了。美国如果有一半亚裔，制造业等实业不知道会好多少。
亚裔也太宽泛了。还是东亚拼的多一些。身边印度的不是高学历的也挺多躺平的。现在躺平是大趋势。
找个对川皇忠心的上去 总能把数据做成川皇喜欢的样子
我也是这个疑问。既然不是新鲜事，有什么可大惊小怪的。感觉是修正五六月的数据更跌眼镜。阴谋论一下，猜四月关税影响就业，说不好那时数据就已经不好了。现在不修正要穿帮了。
是的，上行下效。这种媚上的风气。就不能出几个以事实为依据的铁头吗？这个统计局长也不冤，这样的数据修正已经一年多了，足见他也没啥骨头。
没啥勇气。修正数据直接编程一样的，川普满意不就能保住位子了吗？川普都川皇了，说你行就行
你纠结这个但是相信trump说的每一句话？
川普生气的点和我们不一样， 不是因为数据对不上， 而是他觉得局长没理会他的需求， 没把数据造的足够漂亮供他吹牛
跟当年数票一样， 他想magically 多数一些工作出来
猪头永远都要把中国扯进来，你赶快去和类人猿合作一下，把你的基因彻底换掉。
这也能洗，不服不行啊。 睁开眼睛，看看周围吧
对比小布什时期的利率和就业率，现在的经济状况比08一二季度还差了吗？没有就不会急着降。19年降息太早的后果到今天还很严重。
毛主席那一套学得多好！打倒知识分子臭老九
还真是便宜了国防部长，司法部长这几个大饭桶了
绿条是增加的就业，从川普上台后，比拜登差了一大截。
现在看修正完数据后，主要负责人是谁还不明显吗。
不一样，解雇的是拜登政府的人，而国防部长，司法部长是自己人。
痛骂中共，讨论中共，学习中共，成为中共
看了这么不要脸的数据。没底气再笑话国内的数据了。
如果确认经济变差、通胀也居高不下，那么政策是陷入死锁局面。 高通胀需要升息，经济差需要降息，那么你到底选哪个
无论角度多么刁钻，总能舔到位
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