回复 1楼 greendeer 的帖子 沃顿商学院的Jeremy J. Siegel教授写过一本书叫Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies，第一章就是根据从1802年以来的数据分析了股票的长期收益。我记得股票在调整通货膨胀以后的实际年收益在6%-7%左右，高于债卷，黄金等各种资产。 这个结论基本适合全世界所有股市。 这是长期数据，不代表下一个10年也有这个收益率。 如果假设政府会大放水 （各国政府都在大放水），股票至少比债卷等固收产品更抗通胀。
The euphemism of the current index investing crowd is quite remarkable. If we have a way to measure it, it must be at all time high of last 20 years. Even many people from China mainland are showing off their US stock market gains on XiaoHongShu. The current valuation of risk-free asset is already *lower* than that of the risky asset. The only logic explanation of such risk-taking is either the expectation of "dollar depreciation" or "AI is changing the world". Expectations will surely top somewhere in next 5 years, or maybe less than 1 years, so I highly doubt we will see another 10y 7% return.
xlx 发表于 2025-07-31 15:26 The euphemism of the current index investing crowd is quite remarkable. If we have a way to measure it, it must be at all time high of last 20 years. Even many people from China mainland are showing off their US stock market gains on XiaoHongShu. The current valuation of risk-free asset is already *lower* than that of the risky asset. The only logic explanation of such risk-taking is either the expectation of "dollar depreciation" or "AI is changing the world". Expectations will surely top somewhere in next 5 years, or maybe less than 1 years, so I highly doubt we will see another 10y 7% return.
But I could be wrong, for comparison, from 1995 to 2005, SP500 annualized 11%+, quite remarkable.
股市贴开始多起来了 嗯嗯
注意：这个说的是平均年化收益，坏消息是不保证每年都有这个数，好消息是这是compound return！
股市涨涨跌跌，短期风险巨大，但时间越长，风险越小。之所以标普500能有10%，就是包含了其中的风险。无风险的return只有4%左右。
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7.2%的复利， 10年翻倍， 我觉得问题不大。
你这么看空美国未来？
可今天大盘一般般啊. 昨天盘后我还以为今天要大涨呢.
沃顿商学院的Jeremy J. Siegel教授写过一本书叫Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies，第一章就是根据从1802年以来的数据分析了股票的长期收益。我记得股票在调整通货膨胀以后的实际年收益在6%-7%左右，高于债卷，黄金等各种资产。 这个结论基本适合全世界所有股市。 这是长期数据，不代表下一个10年也有这个收益率。 如果假设政府会大放水 （各国政府都在大放水），股票至少比债卷等固收产品更抗通胀。
The euphemism of the current index investing crowd is quite remarkable. If we have a way to measure it, it must be at all time high of last 20 years. Even many people from China mainland are showing off their US stock market gains on XiaoHongShu.
The current valuation of risk-free asset is already *lower* than that of the risky asset. The only logic explanation of such risk-taking is either the expectation of "dollar depreciation" or "AI is changing the world".
Expectations will surely top somewhere in next 5 years, or maybe less than 1 years, so I highly doubt we will see another 10y 7% return.
GMO是著名的permanent bear，我不是说他们的预测不对，但taking a grain of salt
But I could be wrong, for comparison, from 1995 to 2005, SP500 annualized 11%+, quite remarkable.
只要相信有永动机，就可以。 QQQ 15%年化。
啥是Us deep value
高多了呀