Trump announces EU trade deal with 15% tariffs CNBC Published Sun, Jul 27 20251:49 PM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. reached a trade deal with the European Union, following a pivotal discussion with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen days before the Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Trump said that the deal imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods to the U.S., which is lower than the 30% rate he had previously threatened against the United States' largest trading partner. Trump also said that the 27-member bloc has agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. “It's a very powerful deal, it's a very big deal, it's the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said alongside von der Leyen. “It's a good deal, it's a huge deal, with tough negotiations,” von der Leyen said after the meeting. The announcement comes after Trump during a press conference before his meeting with the European leader said that there was a 50-50 chance they would reach a framework of a deal, following weeks of painstaking negotiations. The Sunday announcement marks a pivotal moment for Trump. It also comes after weeks of uncertainty surrounding U.S.-EU trade talks. Brussels had been preparing for a no-deal scenario if the trade talks devolved ahead of Aug. 1. Lawmakers had approved a major package of counter-tariffs, which would have targeted a range of U.S. goods. The bloc also considered deploying the EU's “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” a move seen as the trading bloc's “trade bazooka.” The U.S.-EU trade relationship was valued at 1.68 trillion euros ($1.97 trillion) when taking into account both services and goods trading in 2024, according to the European Council. While the EU recorded a surplus on goods trading, it noted a deficit in the services realm. This left the EU with an overall trade surplus of around 50 billion euros with the U.S. last year.
huaren2018 发表于 2025-07-27 14:41 Trump announces EU trade deal with 15% tariffs CNBC Published Sun, Jul 27 20251:49 PM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. reached a trade deal with the European Union, following a pivotal discussion with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen days before the Aug. 1 tariff deadline. Trump said that the deal imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods to the U.S., which is lower than the 30% rate he had previously threatened against the United States' largest trading partner. Trump also said that the 27-member bloc has agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. “It's a very powerful deal, it's a very big deal, it's the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said alongside von der Leyen. “It's a good deal, it's a huge deal, with tough negotiations,” von der Leyen said after the meeting. The announcement comes after Trump during a press conference before his meeting with the European leader said that there was a 50-50 chance they would reach a framework of a deal, following weeks of painstaking negotiations. The Sunday announcement marks a pivotal moment for Trump. It also comes after weeks of uncertainty surrounding U.S.-EU trade talks. Brussels had been preparing for a no-deal scenario if the trade talks devolved ahead of Aug. 1. Lawmakers had approved a major package of counter-tariffs, which would have targeted a range of U.S. goods. The bloc also considered deploying the EU's “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” a move seen as the trading bloc's “trade bazooka.” The U.S.-EU trade relationship was valued at 1.68 trillion euros ($1.97 trillion) when taking into account both services and goods trading in 2024, according to the European Council. While the EU recorded a surplus on goods trading, it noted a deficit in the services realm. This left the EU with an overall trade surplus of around 50 billion euros with the U.S. last year.
" purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and $600 billion worth of investments" 多少年完成？ flyingman123 发表于 2025-07-27 15:03
那帮记者没有一个人问这个关键问题？ 根据Grok 的估计，2025 年欧州需要297 billion energy, 会从俄罗斯进口22.8 billions, 从中东进口69.1 billions. 欧盟必须从这两个地方减少进口，才能增加从美国进口； 原有的估计从美国进口78.2 billions; 如果从美国进口增加50 ％，那也需要20年！现实是欧盟不可能一下子增加从美国进口50%；还要平衡中东的利益，可行的部分是将俄罗斯的部分转从美国进口，每年22 billions, 那么大概需要30年。 以后的世界能源格局：独裁国家之间买卖能源，俄罗斯卖给中国。 Estimating the annual energy consumption of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the European Union (EU) in billions of dollars requires combining consumption volumes with price data. Based on available information, here’s a breakdown: Oil Consumption • Volume: In 2023, the EU consumed approximately 422 million tonnes (Mt) of oil. • Price: The average price of crude oil in 2023 was around $85 per barrel. Assuming 1 tonne of oil is approximately 7.3 barrels, 422 Mt equals roughly 3,080 million barrels. At $85 per barrel, this translates to: • 3,080 million barrels × $85/barrel = $261.8 billion. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Natural Gas Consumption • Volume: In 2023, the EU consumed about 335 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, with LNG accounting for roughly 26% of total gas imports in 2020 (a reasonable proxy for 2023). Assuming a similar share, LNG consumption is approximately 87 bcm (335 × 0.26). • Price: The average price of natural gas at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in 2023 was around €40 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Converting to dollars (using $1.05/€) and assuming 1 bcm ≈ 9.6 million MWh, the cost is: • 87 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €40/MWh × $1.05/€ = $35.1 billion. Total Cost • Oil: $261.8 billion • LNG: $35.1 billion • Total: $261.8 billion + $35.1 billion = $296.9 billionNotes • Prices fluctuate significantly; for instance, 2022 saw a spike in gas prices, pushing the EU’s energy import bill to €604 billion, while 2024 estimates suggest €376 billion. • The share of LNG versus pipeline gas varies, and domestic production (e.g., 22 Mt of oil and declining gas output) reduces import costs slightly. • Data for 2025 is projected, but 2023 figures are more reliable. If you need projections, posts on X suggest a total energy expenditure of ~$1.17 trillion, though this includes all energy sources, not just oil and LNG. Final Answer: The EU’s annual consumption of oil and LNG in 2023 was approximately $297 billion. For precise 2025 estimates, check current price trends at https://x.ai/grok or https://www.eia.gov. To estimate the cost of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Russia to the EU in 2025, we can use recent data and trends, acknowledging that exact figures for 2025 are projections based on 2024 data and market dynamics. Here’s the breakdown: Oil Imports from Russia • Volume: In 2023, the EU imported approximately 3.9% of its petroleum oil from Russia, a significant drop from 24.8% in 2021, due to sanctions on Russian seaborne oil post-2022. Total EU oil consumption was around 422 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, so Russian oil imports were roughly 16.5 Mt (422 Mt × 0.039). • Price: Assuming an average crude oil price of $85 per barrel in 2025 (consistent with 2023 averages and recent X posts indicating a price cap of $47.6 per barrel for Russian oil, though market prices may be higher), and 1 tonne ≈ 7.3 barrels, 16.5 Mt equals ~120.5 million barrels. At $85/barrel: • 120.5 million barrels × $85 = $10.2 billion. • Note: The EU’s 18th sanctions package (July 2025) lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.6 per barrel, which could reduce costs if enforced, but loopholes (e.g., refined products from third countries like Turkey) may keep volumes and prices higher. LNG Imports from Russia • Volume: In 2024, the EU imported 17.8 Mt of Russian LNG, equivalent to ~24.2 billion cubic meters (bcm). For 2025, assuming a slight increase due to the end of pipeline gas transit via Ukraine (15 bcm in 2024) and no full ban until 2027, we estimate ~18.5 Mt (~25 bcm). • Price: The average TTF gas price in 2023 was €40/MWh, and Eurostat data suggest Russian LNG prices in Q4 2024 were 274% higher than Q1 2021, implying ~€50/MWh in 2025 (using $1.05/€). With 1 bcm ≈ 9.6 million MWh: • 25 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €50/MWh × $1.05/€ = $12.6 billion. • Note: The EU’s LNG imports from Russia hit record levels in 2024 (€7.32 billion for 17.5 Mt), with 85% going to France, Spain, and Belgium. A transshipment ban effective March 2025 may redirect some volumes to EU markets, potentially increasing costs. Total Cost • Oil: ~$10.2 billion • LNG: ~$12.6 billion • Total: $22.8 billionContext and Caveats • Sanctions and Trends: The EU aims to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, but LNG imports rose 18% in 2024, and spot market purchases (33% of Russian LNG in 2024) remain attractive due to lower prices compared to U.S. LNG. Pipeline gas imports dropped 90% by Q1 2025, shifting reliance to LNG. • Data Limitations: 2025 projections assume stable consumption and prices. Actual costs may vary due to market volatility, sanctions enforcement, or geopolitical shifts (e.g., Ukraine transit halt). • Sources: For real-time updates, check https://www.eia.gov or https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Final Answer: In 2025, the EU’s imports of oil and LNG from Russia are estimated to cost ~$22.8 billion ($10.2 billion for oil, $12.6 billion for LNG), based on 2024 data and projected trends. To estimate the cost of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States and Middle East countries to the EU in 2025, we’ll use 2024 data and trends, as 2025 figures are projections. The EU’s total oil and LNG consumption costs were estimated at ~$297 billion in 2023 ($261.8 billion for oil, $35.1 billion for LNG). Below, we break down the contributions from the US and Middle East (focusing on key exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, and Algeria). Oil Imports • Total EU Oil Consumption: ~422 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, costing $261.8 billion at $85/barrel (1 tonne ≈ 7.3 barrels). • From the United States: • Volume: In 2024, the US supplied 16.1% of EU petroleum oil imports. Assuming similar shares for 2025 and 422 Mt total consumption, US imports are ~68 Mt (422 × 0.161). • Cost: 68 Mt × 7.3 barrels/tonne × $85/barrel = $42.2 billion. • Note: US crude exports to Europe have grown since 2022, replacing Russia as the top supplier. • From Middle East Countries: • Volume: In 2024, Middle East oil exports to Europe fell by nearly 25%, with Iraq (11.5% of imports) and Saudi Arabia (part of OPEC) as key suppliers. Assuming Middle East countries (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.) supplied ~20% of EU oil imports (down from 24.8% in 2021 due to sanctions and Red Sea disruptions), that’s ~84.4 Mt (422 × 0.2). • Cost: 84.4 Mt × 7.3 barrels/tonne × $85/barrel = $52.4 billion. • Note: Red Sea attacks increased shipping costs, making Middle East oil less competitive, with Iraq’s exports down 82,000 bpd and UAE’s down 35,000 bpd in 2024. LNG Imports • Total EU LNG Consumption: ~87 bcm in 2023, costing $35.1 billion at €40/MWh ($1.05/€, 1 bcm ≈ 9.6 million MWh). For 2025, IEEFA forecasts EU LNG demand at 158 bcm, a 17% increase. Scaling the cost: 158/87 × $35.1 billion = $63.7 billion. • From the United States: • Volume: In 2024, the US supplied 45.3% of EU LNG imports (~100 bcm total), or ~45.3 bcm. For 2025, with 158 bcm total demand, US imports are estimated at ~71.5 bcm (158 × 0.453). • Cost: 71.5 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €50/MWh (projected 2025 price) × $1.05/€ = $36.0 billion. • Note: US LNG exports to Europe are expected to rise 15% in 2025 due to new facilities (Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3), driven by high European prices and the halt of Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine. • From Middle East Countries: • Volume: In 2024, Qatar and Algeria supplied 10.7% and ~10% of EU LNG imports, respectively, with minor contributions from Egypt and others. Assuming a combined ~21% share (21.7% in 2024), for 158 bcm total demand, Middle East imports are ~33.2 bcm (158 × 0.21). • Cost: 33.2 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €50/MWh × $1.05/€ = $16.7 billion. • Note: Qatar remains a major player, but Red Sea disruptions and competition from US LNG limit Middle East growth. Total Cost • From the United States: • Oil: $42.2 billion • LNG: $36.0 billion • Total: $78.2 billion • From Middle East Countries: • Oil: $52.4 billion • LNG: $16.7 billion • Total: $69.1 billionContext and Caveats • US Dominance: The US has become the EU’s top LNG supplier (45% in 2024) and crude oil supplier (16.1% in 2024), driven by sanctions on Russia and new US export capacity. • Middle East Challenges: Middle East oil exports to Europe declined in 2024 due to higher shipping costs and sanctions on Iran, while LNG imports face competition from cheaper US supplies. • 2025 Projections: Assumes stable prices ($85/barrel for oil, €50/MWh for LNG) and import shares. Actual costs may vary due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz risks) or price volatility. • Data Sources: For updates, check https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat or https://www.eia.gov. Final Answer: In 2025, the EU’s oil and LNG imports are estimated to cost $78.2 billion from the US ($42.2 billion oil, $36.0 billion LNG) and $69.1 billion from Middle East countries ($52.4 billion oil, $16.7 billion LNG), based on 2024 data and projected demand.
但据说老实报关的更少了, 特别是小商品, 都是八仙过海... 最近几次去lidl shopping, 我特别观察, made in china的百货涨价是普遍, 但不多. 比涨价更明显的是, 缺货, 货物降级, 还有根本不写made in 哪里, 只写distributed by 什么美国公司或者加拿大公司
Nucor Corporation is a leading American steel and steel products manufacturer and the largest recycler in North America. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, Nucor operates over 300 facilities primarily in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
落地无声 发表于 2025-07-27 23:59 Nucor Corporation is a leading American steel and steel products manufacturer and the largest recycler in North America. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, Nucor operates over 300 facilities primarily in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. reached a trade deal with the European Union, following a pivotal discussion with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen days before the Aug. 1 tariff deadline.
Trump said that the deal imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods to the U.S., which is lower than the 30% rate he had previously threatened against the United States' largest trading partner.
Trump also said that the 27-member bloc has agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and $600 billion worth of investments into the U.S. “It's a very powerful deal, it's a very big deal, it's the biggest of all the deals,” Trump said alongside von der Leyen.
“It's a good deal, it's a huge deal, with tough negotiations,” von der Leyen said after the meeting.
The announcement comes after Trump during a press conference before his meeting with the European leader said that there was a 50-50 chance they would reach a framework of a deal, following weeks of painstaking negotiations.
The Sunday announcement marks a pivotal moment for Trump. It also comes after weeks of uncertainty surrounding U.S.-EU trade talks.
Brussels had been preparing for a no-deal scenario if the trade talks devolved ahead of Aug. 1.
Lawmakers had approved a major package of counter-tariffs, which would have targeted a range of U.S. goods. The bloc also considered deploying the EU's “Anti-Coercion Instrument,” a move seen as the trading bloc's “trade bazooka.”
The U.S.-EU trade relationship was valued at 1.68 trillion euros ($1.97 trillion) when taking into account both services and goods trading in 2024, according to the European Council.
While the EU recorded a surplus on goods trading, it noted a deficit in the services realm. This left the EU with an overall trade surplus of around 50 billion euros with the U.S. last year.
“Wait for the details. Could be similar to the Australian beef “deal”.”
只要建国宣布从一个胜利走向另一个胜利就好， 关键股市认啊，和日本的 deal ，日本那边还没确认只是川普发了个贴日本股市已经上了天； 和欧洲这还比较正式点，是建国和欧洲冯主席一起宣布的
你舔得好。辛苦啦
真是量欧盟之物力，结美国之欢心。
那帮记者没有一个人问这个关键问题？ 根据Grok 的估计，2025 年欧州需要297 billion energy, 会从俄罗斯进口22.8 billions, 从中东进口69.1 billions. 欧盟必须从这两个地方减少进口，才能增加从美国进口； 原有的估计从美国进口78.2 billions; 如果从美国进口增加50 ％，那也需要20年！现实是欧盟不可能一下子增加从美国进口50%；还要平衡中东的利益，可行的部分是将俄罗斯的部分转从美国进口，每年22 billions, 那么大概需要30年。
以后的世界能源格局：独裁国家之间买卖能源，俄罗斯卖给中国。
Estimating the annual energy consumption of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the European Union (EU) in billions of dollars requires combining consumption volumes with price data. Based on available information, here’s a breakdown: Oil Consumption • Volume: In 2023, the EU consumed approximately 422 million tonnes (Mt) of oil. • Price: The average price of crude oil in 2023 was around $85 per barrel. Assuming 1 tonne of oil is approximately 7.3 barrels, 422 Mt equals roughly 3,080 million barrels. At $85 per barrel, this translates to: • 3,080 million barrels × $85/barrel = $261.8 billion. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and Natural Gas Consumption • Volume: In 2023, the EU consumed about 335 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas, with LNG accounting for roughly 26% of total gas imports in 2020 (a reasonable proxy for 2023). Assuming a similar share, LNG consumption is approximately 87 bcm (335 × 0.26). • Price: The average price of natural gas at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in 2023 was around €40 per megawatt-hour (MWh). Converting to dollars (using $1.05/€) and assuming 1 bcm ≈ 9.6 million MWh, the cost is: • 87 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €40/MWh × $1.05/€ = $35.1 billion. Total Cost • Oil: $261.8 billion • LNG: $35.1 billion • Total: $261.8 billion + $35.1 billion = $296.9 billion Notes • Prices fluctuate significantly; for instance, 2022 saw a spike in gas prices, pushing the EU’s energy import bill to €604 billion, while 2024 estimates suggest €376 billion. • The share of LNG versus pipeline gas varies, and domestic production (e.g., 22 Mt of oil and declining gas output) reduces import costs slightly. • Data for 2025 is projected, but 2023 figures are more reliable. If you need projections, posts on X suggest a total energy expenditure of ~$1.17 trillion, though this includes all energy sources, not just oil and LNG. Final Answer: The EU’s annual consumption of oil and LNG in 2023 was approximately $297 billion. For precise 2025 estimates, check current price trends at https://x.ai/grok or https://www.eia.gov.
To estimate the cost of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Russia to the EU in 2025, we can use recent data and trends, acknowledging that exact figures for 2025 are projections based on 2024 data and market dynamics. Here’s the breakdown: Oil Imports from Russia • Volume: In 2023, the EU imported approximately 3.9% of its petroleum oil from Russia, a significant drop from 24.8% in 2021, due to sanctions on Russian seaborne oil post-2022. Total EU oil consumption was around 422 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, so Russian oil imports were roughly 16.5 Mt (422 Mt × 0.039). • Price: Assuming an average crude oil price of $85 per barrel in 2025 (consistent with 2023 averages and recent X posts indicating a price cap of $47.6 per barrel for Russian oil, though market prices may be higher), and 1 tonne ≈ 7.3 barrels, 16.5 Mt equals ~120.5 million barrels. At $85/barrel: • 120.5 million barrels × $85 = $10.2 billion. • Note: The EU’s 18th sanctions package (July 2025) lowered the price cap on Russian oil to $47.6 per barrel, which could reduce costs if enforced, but loopholes (e.g., refined products from third countries like Turkey) may keep volumes and prices higher. LNG Imports from Russia • Volume: In 2024, the EU imported 17.8 Mt of Russian LNG, equivalent to ~24.2 billion cubic meters (bcm). For 2025, assuming a slight increase due to the end of pipeline gas transit via Ukraine (15 bcm in 2024) and no full ban until 2027, we estimate ~18.5 Mt (~25 bcm). • Price: The average TTF gas price in 2023 was €40/MWh, and Eurostat data suggest Russian LNG prices in Q4 2024 were 274% higher than Q1 2021, implying ~€50/MWh in 2025 (using $1.05/€). With 1 bcm ≈ 9.6 million MWh: • 25 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €50/MWh × $1.05/€ = $12.6 billion. • Note: The EU’s LNG imports from Russia hit record levels in 2024 (€7.32 billion for 17.5 Mt), with 85% going to France, Spain, and Belgium. A transshipment ban effective March 2025 may redirect some volumes to EU markets, potentially increasing costs. Total Cost • Oil: ~$10.2 billion • LNG: ~$12.6 billion • Total: $22.8 billion Context and Caveats • Sanctions and Trends: The EU aims to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, but LNG imports rose 18% in 2024, and spot market purchases (33% of Russian LNG in 2024) remain attractive due to lower prices compared to U.S. LNG. Pipeline gas imports dropped 90% by Q1 2025, shifting reliance to LNG. • Data Limitations: 2025 projections assume stable consumption and prices. Actual costs may vary due to market volatility, sanctions enforcement, or geopolitical shifts (e.g., Ukraine transit halt). • Sources: For real-time updates, check https://www.eia.gov or https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Final Answer: In 2025, the EU’s imports of oil and LNG from Russia are estimated to cost ~$22.8 billion ($10.2 billion for oil, $12.6 billion for LNG), based on 2024 data and projected trends.
To estimate the cost of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States and Middle East countries to the EU in 2025, we’ll use 2024 data and trends, as 2025 figures are projections. The EU’s total oil and LNG consumption costs were estimated at ~$297 billion in 2023 ($261.8 billion for oil, $35.1 billion for LNG). Below, we break down the contributions from the US and Middle East (focusing on key exporters like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Qatar, and Algeria). Oil Imports • Total EU Oil Consumption: ~422 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, costing $261.8 billion at $85/barrel (1 tonne ≈ 7.3 barrels). • From the United States: • Volume: In 2024, the US supplied 16.1% of EU petroleum oil imports. Assuming similar shares for 2025 and 422 Mt total consumption, US imports are ~68 Mt (422 × 0.161). • Cost: 68 Mt × 7.3 barrels/tonne × $85/barrel = $42.2 billion. • Note: US crude exports to Europe have grown since 2022, replacing Russia as the top supplier. • From Middle East Countries: • Volume: In 2024, Middle East oil exports to Europe fell by nearly 25%, with Iraq (11.5% of imports) and Saudi Arabia (part of OPEC) as key suppliers. Assuming Middle East countries (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.) supplied ~20% of EU oil imports (down from 24.8% in 2021 due to sanctions and Red Sea disruptions), that’s ~84.4 Mt (422 × 0.2). • Cost: 84.4 Mt × 7.3 barrels/tonne × $85/barrel = $52.4 billion. • Note: Red Sea attacks increased shipping costs, making Middle East oil less competitive, with Iraq’s exports down 82,000 bpd and UAE’s down 35,000 bpd in 2024. LNG Imports • Total EU LNG Consumption: ~87 bcm in 2023, costing $35.1 billion at €40/MWh ($1.05/€, 1 bcm ≈ 9.6 million MWh). For 2025, IEEFA forecasts EU LNG demand at 158 bcm, a 17% increase. Scaling the cost: 158/87 × $35.1 billion = $63.7 billion. • From the United States: • Volume: In 2024, the US supplied 45.3% of EU LNG imports (~100 bcm total), or ~45.3 bcm. For 2025, with 158 bcm total demand, US imports are estimated at ~71.5 bcm (158 × 0.453). • Cost: 71.5 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €50/MWh (projected 2025 price) × $1.05/€ = $36.0 billion. • Note: US LNG exports to Europe are expected to rise 15% in 2025 due to new facilities (Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3), driven by high European prices and the halt of Russian pipeline gas via Ukraine. • From Middle East Countries: • Volume: In 2024, Qatar and Algeria supplied 10.7% and ~10% of EU LNG imports, respectively, with minor contributions from Egypt and others. Assuming a combined ~21% share (21.7% in 2024), for 158 bcm total demand, Middle East imports are ~33.2 bcm (158 × 0.21). • Cost: 33.2 bcm × 9.6 million MWh/bcm × €50/MWh × $1.05/€ = $16.7 billion. • Note: Qatar remains a major player, but Red Sea disruptions and competition from US LNG limit Middle East growth. Total Cost • From the United States: • Oil: $42.2 billion • LNG: $36.0 billion • Total: $78.2 billion • From Middle East Countries: • Oil: $52.4 billion • LNG: $16.7 billion • Total: $69.1 billion Context and Caveats • US Dominance: The US has become the EU’s top LNG supplier (45% in 2024) and crude oil supplier (16.1% in 2024), driven by sanctions on Russia and new US export capacity. • Middle East Challenges: Middle East oil exports to Europe declined in 2024 due to higher shipping costs and sanctions on Iran, while LNG imports face competition from cheaper US supplies. • 2025 Projections: Assumes stable prices ($85/barrel for oil, €50/MWh for LNG) and import shares. Actual costs may vary due to geopolitical tensions (e.g., Strait of Hormuz risks) or price volatility. • Data Sources: For updates, check https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat or https://www.eia.gov. Final Answer: In 2025, the EU’s oil and LNG imports are estimated to cost $78.2 billion from the US ($42.2 billion oil, $36.0 billion LNG) and $69.1 billion from Middle East countries ($52.4 billion oil, $16.7 billion LNG), based on 2024 data and projected demand.
第一反应：周一股市又要涨了 第二反应：国内的外交决策有可能误判了，欧盟24号在北京什么都没谈成，关系紧张，给教训了一通，两天的日程给中方砍成一天，转头跟美国把deal签了。
前几天川普对小弟盟友菲律宾的 deal 是美国单方面收 19%，而美国货进菲律宾关税是 0
没啥误判一说，中欧，欧美，中美之间各有谈判和争斗，各谈各的没有必然联系；欧洲即将和美国达成贸易协议早在之前就有报道了股市也有所反应了特别是日本之后就更确定了。
现在美国方面财长和川普对中美即将开始的瑞典会谈的表态，感觉也很谨慎非常不希望谈崩，至少也要谈成个再延期。
本来就是欧洲还没下决心往中国靠近... 四月份美欧关系紧张的时候, 欧盟就有人提出叫冯下台, 只有她下台了, 和中国关系才能更近一部步... 后来,欧洲发现trump是虚张声势,自然想维持现状.... 还是中国实力不够强...
接下来股市继续暴涨了
期指现在涨了，不知道能不能守得住
欧洲在整体右转 尤其是走在反华的pathway上 这种大势不是判断 谈判 能够扭转的 就算谈成了 也是一时饮鸩止渴 等到这一代欧洲青年领导欧洲的时候 真是不敢想 还是要靠自己提高科技 开发南方国家 不是说这条路就是坦途 而是能走到哪儿走到哪儿 但是跟欧美大概率是回不去了 人和国家都是如此 欧洲其实也不想谈 不然不会一边访问谈判 一边上眼药
过去一周，商务部联系过很多国内出口大厂，通报过和美国的关税谈判，说目前双方同意把现行关税执行一年，然后再看之后的发展，商务部主要是想知道企业对现有关税的抗压能力。
当然商务部还是说要根据双方公布为准，但根据目前在国内和出口大厂的提前通报，我感觉双方基本达成共识了，框架基本敲定了，关税不会降也不会升了。
如果中美双方明确了 中国就是要成为下一个hegemon 美国的目标就是防止中国成为下一个hegemon 这个谈判确实几乎毫无意义 跟其他国家的谈判有站队的性质 也有交保护费的性质 所以谈判很有意义
居然会以为，商贸关税谈判是顶尖大头谈判而成的。
欧盟的中国行程，是一个月前就从3天缩减到一天了。
中美的瑞典谈判，不会有太大惊喜，基本还是review原来的框架。
======================== 无论，中美俄之间怎么斗，最后的客观实际结果，一定是分食了欧洲。
中国脑子最好，实力稳定前行； 美国脑子有点蠢，但老底子存量还比较丰厚，大约还能有8-10年好光景。 俄罗斯，脑子里有些蛮夷，但还算识相，同时对欧洲各国，有相对的比较优势。
欧洲货物出口美国因关税受阻，那么，更是不得不，依靠中国市场了。欧洲国内市场，也会被零关税的美国货，冲掉一些。 欧洲与俄罗斯战的更凶，俄罗斯对中国依赖更多。
欧洲右转的，才是不怎么反华的。 你看看德国法国的真右派。匈牙利的欧尔班，和其他两三个新欧洲的小国的最近选举结果。 西班牙和葡萄牙和希腊，无论左派右派，都不反华，甚至在绝大部分议题上略偏华。 意大利的右派，是假右派。
欧洲铁杆反华的，都是所谓的各种左派，
在1970年最早提出 “联中抗苏” 的白邦瑞，在1997年左右，就提出了 “联俄制华” 。
小布什刚上台的2001年，就准备压制中国了。
关税是美国进口商和消费者交，又不是外国生产商交，18年的对华关税是这几年通货膨胀的主要原因之一，再来一轮更猛烈些的，老百姓的日子更难熬了，没有能力领导国家向正确的方向发展，只知道程咬金三斧头还是乱砍的
根本没达成协议，就是暂停关税战而已，还需再继续谈判。关键议题就是军用稀土出口问题。目前欧洲全面爆发大规模战争可能性极大，东亚印巴冲突、东南亚泰国和柬埔寨已经开战、马来西亚又被搞颜色革命、印尼抛弃了中国军购转而和土耳其合作，美国施压日韩要求全面出钱出力出兵站队美国，所有这一切百分之九十都是针对中国。
中国不可能在稀土问题上让步。所以下次谈判根本没戏
对美国百姓来说，所有国家出口到美的产品都加额外关税，纯纯的通货膨胀。对中国出口商来说，反正其它国家的产品也被加关税，降价提高（价格）竞争力的压力一下就变小了。
我觉得这种想法过于乐观了 历史上右派上台不反华的很少吧 右派不上台 那他们的priority 在国内关系上 而国际关系对他们不是重点 这时候的看法当不得真 一旦上台 右派就必须要在国际关系上拿出主张 这时候比左派应该更反共反中 最后落脚点就是反华
现在中国进入美国的商品大部分关税是50%+，到现在打贸易战基本上只有中国的关税是一直在交，别的国家基本上都是额外10%的水平。我们从中国进口产品，很多产品都不赚钱，利润都被关税吃了，快撑不住了，上周老板还和我谈计划裁人
法国航空巨头Safren收购美国航空老资格厂家Collins飞控驱动部门一波三折。 Collins东家雷神同意美国政府批准，但意大利政府和欧盟有些国家反对，但好像要通过了。 Collins是C919机载雷达航空仪表供应商。欧洲在科技上没剩啥了。
但据说老实报关的更少了, 特别是小商品, 都是八仙过海... 最近几次去lidl shopping, 我特别观察, made in china的百货涨价是普遍, 但不多. 比涨价更明显的是, 缺货, 货物降级, 还有根本不写made in 哪里, 只写distributed by 什么美国公司或者加拿大公司
中国本来就落后不止百年 已经算是尽力赶了 但是力有不逮 欧洲这些年躺着吃老本 不思进取 以为美国是自家后花园 导致现在被美国掐着脖子 真是活该
不老实报关那是走私，case 有三年追诉期，现在海关被不断翻新的关税政策搞的一团乱，等空闲下来查到头上是吃不了 兜着走，便宜的小商品海关懒得查，贵的产品进口多的正规商家谁敢乱报啊
你是美国进口商, 额外的关税你们付？涨价啊。
姓冯的老公和许多娃都在加州生活，她到底算是欧洲人还是美国人？欧洲被冯生生的卖了
你猜猜谁是傻子?
川普的这个deal说是欧洲的win, 美国的loss也太睁眼说瞎话了，真当观众是傻子呢。 在这个关税战之前，欧洲对美国是有贸易壁垒和关税的，只要去过欧洲就知道了，就社会主义欧洲那个工作效率，没有贸易壁垒和关税，几乎所有的美国货和农产品都可以做到比欧洲便宜，同时美国对欧洲的关税是零，就这样欧洲还动不动立法对美国这里的科技巨头罚钱，像google, meta, apple都被欧洲罚过款，同时还要搞什么数字税接着撸羊毛，欧洲从中国那边的逆差都是从美国这边的顺差找补。 现在川普的这个deal谈下来，欧洲这边数字税是不敢提了，同时关税也谈到了15%，要么增加美国国库收入，要么逼着厂家在美国设厂，增加美国工作机会，无论如何美国都没有损失什么。至于说什么是美国消费者承担这个费用的，听听就好，关税要是这么有害，为啥欧洲和其他国家在那里装糊涂，对美国这里收税？
另一个问题，钢收50%的税，美国生产的车价格会高很多，日本和欧洲车进口车只收15%关税，这是鼓励进口日本欧洲车？
美国车就不会在美国买钢，一定要从国外进口？对钢加50%的关税就是倒逼钢厂在美国国内生产，毕竟这是战略物质，车船大炮都需要的。
Nucor Corporation is a leading American steel and steel products manufacturer and the largest recycler in North America. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, Nucor operates over 300 facilities primarily in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
日本是内阁制，到时候以国会不同意为理由可以不执行
原来价格只涨了$40一吨？ 那不正说明美国车厂可以直接买美国生产的钢吗，然后钢厂有需求了，就必然增产，招人增加工作机会，这就是关税的目的啊
现在中国的钢在全世界倾销早就不是新闻了，没有关税保护，全世界的钢厂（包括美国的）都根本没办法应对的。
现在这个政策不知道施行多久， 3年半后改了投资就打水漂了，还不如现在乘火打劫。 这就是前几天说日本deal时， 日本车股票大涨通用汽车股票大跌。
所以你们现在的信息来源就是跑到社交媒体上摘一段话作为证据？
你是说这个数据图是错的？ 这里有更多的数据 http://steelbenchmarker.com/history.pdf
市场总是最正确的！
还有韩国，台湾，加拿大，墨西哥，澳大利亚。。。 我估计是五眼联盟（英国，澳大利亚，新西兰）统一10%, 铁杆盟友（日本，欧盟，台湾，加拿大，韩国，墨西哥，加拿大）15%，认错态度良好怂的快并表态打击转口洗产地的国家（东南亚各国）20%, 敌对国家40%+， 看印度能把自己归到那一类了。
现在的右派是国家利益派。跟着美国混的是白左。右派理性一些
建议关税100%，制造业就回来了