经济学人这篇文章认为 中国的房地产 有触底的迹象... 至少在大城市... 当然小县城 可能还没到底..因为房子本身就是location location 的事 https://www.economist.com/china/2025/06/01/china-is-waking-up-from-its-property-nightmare China is waking up from its property nightmare An ecstatic $38m luxury-mansion auction lights up the market Photograph: Getty Images Jun 1st 2025|SHANGHAI Save Share Give Listen to this story C HINA’S ECONOMY has been through a stress test in the past six months with the trade war shredding nerves. Tensions over tariffs are not over yet. On May 29th Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary, said that talks had “stalled”. President Donald Trump then exchanged accusations with China’s ministry of commerce about who had violated the agreement reached on May 12th to reduce duties. On June 4th, Mr Trump wrote on social media that President Xi Jinping was “extremely hard to make a deal with”. Yet even as the trade war staggers on, two things may be reassuring Mr Xi. One is that so far the economy has been resilient. Private-sector growth estimates for 2025 remain in the 4-5% range. The other is that one of China’s biggest economic nightmares seems to be ending: the savage property crunch. To get a glimpse of that, consider a gated home in Shanghai’s Changning district. It has an air of traditional German architecture and a large front garden, a feature of the city’s most ritzy neighbourhoods. But what really stands out is the price. On May 27th the property sold for a stonking 270m yuan ($38m), creating a sensation in the Chinese press. At 500,000 yuan per square metre, it is one of the priciest home auctions in recent memory. That the wealthy are prepared to pony up such an exorbitant price is being interpreted as a sign that China’s huge and interminable property crisis might finally be ending. Speculation about a turnaround has been building over dinner tables, in boardrooms and at state-planning symposiums. The excitement is hardly surprising. Property, broadly defined, contributed about 25% of GDP on the eve of its crash in 2020. It now represents 15% or less, showing how the slump has been a huge drag on GDP growth. The depressive impact of falling prices on ordinary folk is hard to overstate. In 2021, 80% of household wealth was tied up in real estate; that figure has fallen to around 70%. Hundreds of developers have gone bust, leaving a tangle of unpaid bills. The dampening of confidence helps explain sluggish consumer demand. While the market is still falling, you can make a decent case for the first time since the start of the crisis that the end is in sight. In the first four months of 2025 sales of new homes by value fell by less than 3% compared with the year before. In 2024 the decline was 17%. Transactions will continue to drop only modestly this year, reckon analysts at S&P Global, a rating agency. Chart: The Economist One of the biggest problems was that millions of flats were built but never sold. Last year as many as 80m stood dormant. Now in the “tier-one” cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, that problem is easing. At the end of January the inventory held by developers in those cities would have taken around twelve and a half months to shift at current sales rates, according to CRIC, a property data service. That is down from nearly 20 months in July 2024, and not far from the average of ten months in 2016-19 across the country’s 100 largest cities. In other words, the overhang is starting to look less terrifying. Shanghai’s renaissance illustrates the trend. Transactions rose slightly each month from February to April compared with the year before, making it one of the few cities where prices have risen year on year for months in a row. It still has controls over who can buy properties and how many. But luxury homes are starting to be snapped up quickly, says Ms Fang, an estate agent. The prices of standard properties will probably continue to grow this year, she says, but the most expensive homes are increasing in value even faster. Bottoms up What explains the bottoming out? Partly, just the passage of time. The average housing crash takes four years to play out, according to a study by the IMF of house-price crashes from 1970 to 2003. Officials in Beijing started deflating the bubble by tightening developers’ access to credit in mid-2020 and investors started to panic about the solvency of the monster developers at the end of that year. But the government is also more determined than ever to put an end to the downturn. Local governments have been encouraged to buy unused land and excess housing with proceeds from special bonds. Some are handing out subsidies for buying homes. A plan to renovate shantytowns could create demand for 1m homes. The central bank cut interest rates in May, reducing mortgage rates for new home purchases. This has boosted property sales activity, says Guo Shan of Hutong Research, a consultancy. There are still dangers. The trade war is a drag on confidence. Home prices across 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics declined by about 2% in April from a month earlier. Sales of new homes and the starting and completion of housing projects all fell month on month. Fewer cities in April notched up month-on-month price rises compared with the month before. Things are not getting much worse but they will probably not get better without more government support, says Larry Hu of Macquarie, a bank. In Wenzhou, a manufacturing city on China’s south-eastern coast, price declines are still sharp. Locals say the trade war with America is shaking confidence. Mr Zhou, a restaurant owner, says the official data do not capture huge discounts of more than 50% on some new homes in overbuilt areas. He blames a manufacturing downturn—and Mr Trump’s trade war. In all probability the crisis is over in big rich cities, such as Shanghai, but may last longer in smaller cities, such as Wenzhou. New-home prices in first-tier cities will be flat this year and increase by 1% next year, according to S&P. But in third-tier cities and below they will fall by 4% this year and 2% next. Small cities are full of unwanted homes. China is escaping its property nightmare. Even so, the Communist Party must ensure it is not only big-ticket mansions in Shanghai that look appealing. ■ Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.
自己分析吧
现在在7000-1万2左右。当然这里说的不是高档住宅。
都有可能，
供需的关系
7、8千（房价下跌前是1万2左右）的大多是2000年前或左右的房龄，1万2左右的（下跌前是1万8-2万左右）在2010年左右房龄。
每平米一万左右的房子，假设1500尺（140平米），总价是140万人民币，20万美元。中国没有房产税，物业费低，从可负担性来说大约相当于美国12万美元的房子，其实并不算高。
中国房价会不会涨，取决于经济发展。如果经济发展好了，high pay职位增加，房价会缓慢上涨。
武汉房价现在是多少呀？
大连也不会？但现在仍是下降趋势。
就从这个趋势来分析啊，2022-2025下降4，5千；2-3年后，降到3，4千；让我缓一下，等到2030不就清零啦？
不会一直下跌，会下下上上，趋势是下，当不会像你所说的清零。
供需是一个平衡点
到了一个点，就开始有人买了
是的
国内的房子的 用料，维护都 不敢恭维
没有维护的基本机制
仅仅靠物业 不行的
你这是买在哪个郊区啊，但凡有点名的区，都没这样降的，卖不动是真的，房东不想割肉，买家又想捡便宜，就这样耗着了
对于大部分的城市地区，
以后学区的概念会淡出的
歪个楼，如果外籍回国内买房，可以转超过5万美元回国吗？
我家二线城市, 98年的房子, 非好学区, 但周围全是高校的老校园. 对门是公园, 最大的人民医院200米外. 现在房价还在四万一平.....周围一两个block都没有什么2000年后的住宅楼, 更别说环境好的新小区了. 大城市教育政治中心过去二十年其实没什么土地供开发的..
啥是二线呀，我一直以为除了北上广深，其他的大城市就是二线😓。。。
有的高档一点的还是有的。我朋友在杭州买的商品房公寓400平方每年物业以及其他费用要6万.我想这可能不只是周围打扫卫生割个草吧？
大城市，稍好些的家庭，基本上孩子的婚房都准备好了，未来这十几年要结婚的孩子，估计继承祖辈的房子也不少，还是得看人口流动，越小的城市会越难，大城市医疗教育好的地方应该还行
我说的没有机制，并不是说没有物业费
具体干的事情，慢慢看就知道了
别报太大的希望
这不一定是高档。而是中国的商用公寓的物业费和水电费比同样的住宅贵2-5倍。
高档住宅差不多，我有个朋友在上海买了大平层，每个月的物业费大约是6000多元，一年就是七八万了。但在纽约，相等地段，面积和档次的公寓要六七万美元吧，所以国内还是便宜很多。
不过上海普通民居的物业费还是很低的（市政府有补贴），三室的房子很多每月只要两三百元人民币，40多美元。
我今年回国特别注意了一下房市，感觉也是这样。在几个二线大城市，越靠近市中心的地方，楼的平均高度越低。在郊区和城乡结合处，反而能看到巨大的楼盘，非常不合理。那种楼盘空置率很高。
我有个朋友觉得那种巨大楼盘里的房子便宜，房子又新，建筑质量还不错，有点心动，被我强烈劝止了。
大连好地段肯定不会降到3、4000，毕竟沈阳房价在那儿摆着，周边难说
二线城市，公安系统，退休的，现在还是没有按时发退休金
全国性的，有些 地方 通过借债来发钱，
长久不看好这个房价
你一本正经胡说八道的样子真可笑。
如果公安系统都不能按时发退休金的话，那问题是不小了。
我也不看好，但是价钱就是不下来。等了快两年了，急死人。至于地方借债发工资的确是的，但是好像总能最终筹到钱。我家里就有公安系统退休的。他们的工资很高。就一个副科级就有一万出头的基本工资没拖欠过，拖欠的是三个月一发的生活津贴，平均每个月4，5千的样子，最长一次拖了半年多，但是最终都补发了。比较倒霉的是老师，我同学的老婆就是。基本工资就三千多，各种津贴是大头四五千的样子，经常被拖欠半年甚至一年。
比如成都重庆武汉西安等这类型么
武汉也要分地段吧
这个说法靠谱，跟我听到的差不多。。。
中国房价，是因为不断涨价，大家都当作炒作赚钱工具。
房价主要因素就是供需比，未来20年，是现在出生的娃要买房。现在一年出生多少？他们多少人有继承房产？未来中国工资会继续涨吗？这个一算就明白房价了。
我就说一条，中国工资不可能象以前一样涨，也不应当大涨。按以前工资涨的速度 ，再过10年，中国人工资比美国人拿到手的还要多，你感觉可能吗？
惠州已经这个价钱了不是吗
你看到的那种便宜房子根本不是惠州市区的房子，连底下的县城都不是。就是乡镇，吃个饭买个菜都麻烦的那种，比如很有名的万科双月湾，就在惠东港口镇，真不如四五线的县级市。
地段好，高级住宅，物管优秀的也要跌，只不过抗跌能力强一些罢了
这是因为市中心地段地皮太贵拆不起了，我父母有一套房子就是这样，有十来年了一直计划拆迁但一直拖着，周围都是这种老旧小区，听说拆迁费用太高了
办法还不有的是，先和家人倒一下，再每年寄5万，还回去，回国也可以带一些。很快就会还完了。
成本价比3、4千还低，房价是炒上去的，9几年的房子买的时候才¥2000左右，那时候房地产商已经挣钱了，现在都25年以上的老破旧，不是应该更便宜吗？
你是刚需买房吗？我今年回国的感觉，两三年之内房价不会有明显的大涨，不急的话可以再等等，说不定又降了。关税战对中国是有影响的，中国经济需要有几年的时间来调整。当然关税战对美国的伤害更大。
说国内房子老化快的，有冇搞错啊？全是钢筋水泥，就算贫困地区的农村自建房也至少是砖房，维护比北美的木头房子省心多了
我家乡非东北北方大城市，小学现在还那样，幼儿园关了一些，公立比以前好进了
去年朋友孩子师大毕业的当老师，朋友就不让孩子选小学了（以前觉得小学老师好，教的简单，升学压力也小，孩子小家长都走老师门路，资源杠杠的。。）
其实看看人口数据，过不了几年，肯定很多地方小学要么改小班，要么关学校
目前不是，还有七八年才能退休。但是我肯定回国退休的，所以想早点买个房子早安心，已经密切观察国内我感兴趣的几个城市包括老家的房价将近两年，房子卖不动是真的，你要说跌腰斩的房子我真没见到。最多的一个城市也就跌个20%-30%，老家附近小城市的房价基本没有跌价。
你没有搞明白为啥老化得快。国内是楼房有多住户，维修出资就是一个大问题。要是漏水就扯到楼上楼下好多家，更麻烦。有时候应该做的维修就拖下来了
因为房子几乎没有什么持有成本，所以房主就是扛着不卖，有的有贷款的工作有变化扛不住的，会卖的比较便宜，你可以找你想买的小区附近中介问一下最近成交价，跟挂牌价还是有差距的，价格还是下降区间，慢慢降
现在就是这么耗着，要结婚的这波孩子，很多能继承祖辈的房产，也不急着买房，有需求的也不想高位上车，不知道能耗多久。。。如果房产税真出台，马上价格就下来了
腰斩的是有的，就是不是你需要的地方
https://www.economist.com/china/2025/06/01/china-is-waking-up-from-its-property-nightmare
China is waking up from its property nightmare An ecstatic $38m luxury-mansion auction lights up the market
Jun 1st 2025|SHANGHAI
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Give Listen to this story C HINA’S ECONOMY has been through a stress test in the past six months with the trade war shredding nerves. Tensions over tariffs are not over yet. On May 29th Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary, said that talks had “stalled”. President Donald Trump then exchanged accusations with China’s ministry of commerce about who had violated the agreement reached on May 12th to reduce duties. On June 4th, Mr Trump wrote on social media that President Xi Jinping was “extremely hard to make a deal with”. Yet even as the trade war staggers on, two things may be reassuring Mr Xi. One is that so far the economy has been resilient. Private-sector growth estimates for 2025 remain in the 4-5% range. The other is that one of China’s biggest economic nightmares seems to be ending: the savage property crunch. To get a glimpse of that, consider a gated home in Shanghai’s Changning district. It has an air of traditional German architecture and a large front garden, a feature of the city’s most ritzy neighbourhoods. But what really stands out is the price. On May 27th the property sold for a stonking 270m yuan ($38m), creating a sensation in the Chinese press. At 500,000 yuan per square metre, it is one of the priciest home auctions in recent memory. That the wealthy are prepared to pony up such an exorbitant price is being interpreted as a sign that China’s huge and interminable property crisis might finally be ending. Speculation about a turnaround has been building over dinner tables, in boardrooms and at state-planning symposiums. The excitement is hardly surprising. Property, broadly defined, contributed about 25% of GDP on the eve of its crash in 2020. It now represents 15% or less, showing how the slump has been a huge drag on GDP growth. The depressive impact of falling prices on ordinary folk is hard to overstate. In 2021, 80% of household wealth was tied up in real estate; that figure has fallen to around 70%. Hundreds of developers have gone bust, leaving a tangle of unpaid bills. The dampening of confidence helps explain sluggish consumer demand. While the market is still falling, you can make a decent case for the first time since the start of the crisis that the end is in sight. In the first four months of 2025 sales of new homes by value fell by less than 3% compared with the year before. In 2024 the decline was 17%. Transactions will continue to drop only modestly this year, reckon analysts at S&P Global, a rating agency.
One of the biggest problems was that millions of flats were built but never sold. Last year as many as 80m stood dormant. Now in the “tier-one” cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, that problem is easing. At the end of January the inventory held by developers in those cities would have taken around twelve and a half months to shift at current sales rates, according to CRIC, a property data service. That is down from nearly 20 months in July 2024, and not far from the average of ten months in 2016-19 across the country’s 100 largest cities. In other words, the overhang is starting to look less terrifying. Shanghai’s renaissance illustrates the trend. Transactions rose slightly each month from February to April compared with the year before, making it one of the few cities where prices have risen year on year for months in a row. It still has controls over who can buy properties and how many. But luxury homes are starting to be snapped up quickly, says Ms Fang, an estate agent. The prices of standard properties will probably continue to grow this year, she says, but the most expensive homes are increasing in value even faster. Bottoms up What explains the bottoming out? Partly, just the passage of time. The average housing crash takes four years to play out, according to a study by the IMF of house-price crashes from 1970 to 2003. Officials in Beijing started deflating the bubble by tightening developers’ access to credit in mid-2020 and investors started to panic about the solvency of the monster developers at the end of that year. But the government is also more determined than ever to put an end to the downturn. Local governments have been encouraged to buy unused land and excess housing with proceeds from special bonds. Some are handing out subsidies for buying homes. A plan to renovate shantytowns could create demand for 1m homes. The central bank cut interest rates in May, reducing mortgage rates for new home purchases. This has boosted property sales activity, says Guo Shan of Hutong Research, a consultancy. There are still dangers. The trade war is a drag on confidence. Home prices across 70 cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics declined by about 2% in April from a month earlier. Sales of new homes and the starting and completion of housing projects all fell month on month. Fewer cities in April notched up month-on-month price rises compared with the month before. Things are not getting much worse but they will probably not get better without more government support, says Larry Hu of Macquarie, a bank. In Wenzhou, a manufacturing city on China’s south-eastern coast, price declines are still sharp. Locals say the trade war with America is shaking confidence. Mr Zhou, a restaurant owner, says the official data do not capture huge discounts of more than 50% on some new homes in overbuilt areas. He blames a manufacturing downturn—and Mr Trump’s trade war. In all probability the crisis is over in big rich cities, such as Shanghai, but may last longer in smaller cities, such as Wenzhou. New-home prices in first-tier cities will be flat this year and increase by 1% next year, according to S&P. But in third-tier cities and below they will fall by 4% this year and 2% next. Small cities are full of unwanted homes. China is escaping its property nightmare. Even so, the Communist Party must ensure it is not only big-ticket mansions in Shanghai that look appealing. ■ Subscribers can sign up to Drum Tower, our new weekly newsletter, to understand what the world makes of China—and what China makes of the world.
那时候加州的独幢才十几万，现在你想户主以更便宜价格卖出来，人愿意吗？
这说明你想要买房的地段不错。二线城市好地段我也没见到腰斩的，那不可能啊，上海好地段的房子还涨了。不过你可以保持观察，看到有明显低于市场价的房子就试着谈一下，总会有人因为各种原因急着出手的。但你这种情况也需要家里有人帮忙，不可能远程操作。