简而言之：符合消费降级的需求 Why McDonald’s Is Expanding in China Despite Economic Challenges： China’s economy is facing significant hurdles, such as a GDP growth slowdown (targeted at ~5% for 2024, with similar expectations for 2025), a near-collapsed property sector, local government debt, and weak consumer confidence. Despite these challenges, McDonald’s sees China as a critical growth market for the following reasons, based on recent analyses: 1. Massive Consumer Market and Long-Term Potential: • China’s 1.4 billion population remains the world’s largest consumer market, with a growing middle class that, despite economic caution, continues to spend on affordable, convenient dining options. McDonald’s dominates the burger-focused fast-food sector with a 70% market share, and its value-driven menu appeals to price-sensitive consumers trading down during economic uncertainty. • Analysts like Shaun Rein from China Market Research Group note that McDonald’s is “cheap, quick, and convenient,” making it resilient in a slowing economy where consumers seek affordable alternatives. Lower commercial rents in China further support expansion by reducing costs for new stores. 2. Focus on Lower-Tier Cities: • McDonald’s is targeting third- and fourth-tier cities, where demand for Western fast food is rising due to less competition and growing disposable incomes. These cities offer untapped potential compared to saturated urban centers like Beijing and Shanghai. For example, McDonald’s partnership with Evergrande Group prioritizes site selection in these smaller cities, leveraging local real estate networks. • This strategy aligns with competitors like Yum China (KFC, Pizza Hut), which also targets lower-tier cities, indicating strong growth potential despite economic headwinds. 3. Resilience of Fast Food in Economic Downturns: • Fast food is relatively “recession-proof” compared to higher-end dining, as consumers shift to cheaper options during economic slowdowns. McDonald’s global sales grew 11% year-on-year to $19 billion from January to September 2023, reflecting resilience through aggressive marketing and affordable menus. • In China, McDonald’s sales grew over 30% since September 2019, and its 2023 revenue reached $6.692 billion, surpassing expectations despite economic challenges. This indicates strong consumer demand for its offerings. 4. Strategic Partnerships and Localized Ownership: • McDonald’s increased its stake in its China business from 20% to 48% in 2023 by acquiring Carlyle Group’s shares, signaling confidence in the market. Its majority partner, CITIC (a state-backed conglomerate), provides political cover and local expertise, mitigating geopolitical risks. • Local partnerships with CITIC and past deals with Evergrande enhance McDonald’s ability to secure prime locations and navigate regulatory challenges, unlike other Western firms reducing exposure due to geopolitical tensions. 5. Adaptation to Local Preferences: • McDonald’s has tailored its menu to Chinese tastes (e.g., McSpicy chicken burger, rice-based items), boosting customer appeal. Its investments in technology, like mobile ordering and delivery, align with China’s e-commerce-driven dining culture, where takeout and apps are critical revenue drivers. • For example, McDonald’s introduced cycling machines to recharge devices, attracting younger customers, and is testing AI platforms like RGM Boss with Google Cloud to optimize operations. 6. Supply Chain Investments: • McDonald’s invested over 12 billion yuan ($1.7 billion) from 2018 to 2023 in supply chain infrastructure, like the Hubei Smart Food Industrial Park, to support its 10,000-store goal. This park automates 70% of processes, ensuring fresher food and cost efficiency, which helps maintain low prices despite inflation. • These investments counter economic challenges like rising labor costs and supply chain disruptions, ensuring scalability. 7. Geopolitical and Economic Risk Mitigation: • Unlike tech or luxury brands, McDonald’s operates in an “innocuous” sector, reducing exposure to geopolitical scrutiny. Analysts argue that even risks like a potential China-Taiwan conflict are low in the near term and would not force McDonald’s to exit, as seen with its Russia exit after the Ukraine war. • McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized China’s “tremendous opportunity” and long-term growth potential, supported by a 5-year price guarantee and no contracts for consumers, enhancing stability. 8. Valuation Challenges and Strategic Adjustment: • While McDonald’s China business valuation dropped from $6 billion in 2023 to $2.2 billion in 2024 due to economic shifts, this reflects broader market sentiment rather than operational weakness. McDonald’s remains optimistic, with plans to open 1,000 stores annually, matching its 2023 and 2024 pace. • The company’s ability to generate $8.468 billion in global net profits in 2023 (up 37%) supports its capital expenditures ($2.5 billion in 2024, rising to $3.4–$4 billion by 2027), enabling aggressive expansion. Addressing China’s Economic Challenges China’s economic issues—property sector collapse, local government debt, and low consumer confidence—pose risks, but McDonald’s counters them by: • Targeting Value-Driven Consumers: Economic downturns drive demand for affordable dining, favoring McDonald’s over pricier options. • Leveraging Lower Costs: Declining commercial rents and partnerships reduce expansion costs. • Competing with Local Brands: While local chains like Tastien (7,000 stores) and Wallace grow, McDonald’s 70% burger market share and brand recognition maintain its edge. • Navigating Geopolitics: Unlike firms exiting China (e.g., Tyson Foods), McDonald’s partnerships with CITIC and its non-sensitive sector reduce risks.
博登表示，在中国的稳定业绩主要得益于外卖份额的提升、超值套餐的成功，以及鸡肉业务的强劲表现。
此外，麦当劳还表示，在全球范围内，今年计划开设约2200家新餐厅，其中约四分之一开设在“美国和国际运营市场”，而“国际特许市场”将开设1600多家，在这其中，“中国约占1000家”。
据报道，截至2025年一季度末，麦当劳在中国开设的门店已超过7000家，仅次于美国本土的1.3万家，中国因此成为麦当劳全球第二大市场。与去年同期相比，今年的麦当劳中国门店数量新增超1000家，是全球范围内新增门店数量最多的区域。