meraviglia 发表于 2025-05-14 17:00 是的,这些大银行都把这些 paper loss 藏起来,但只要利率不降下来,都是大雷。 现在个人消费也要变成雷了,个人信用卡的 DPD60天逾期是这些年的新高,加上 FinTech 搞得 BNPL,消费似乎没降,但是就要到崩溃边缘了。
其实有些paper loss不是大问题,只要说hold to maturity就行。相反把这些paper loss放大才是造成金融危机的祸根。硅谷银行本来正常运营没有问题,但是被某些投机者利用所谓的market to market loss造成了挤兑清盘,差点又弄成08年再现。不过好在这次美联储及时印钱化解了
回复 30楼 环游小世界 的帖子 Ok, it touches 5%, everyone sees it, so what? What is next? It is an alarm and everyone has to exit, or it is a fireworks show and everyone enjoys it? What is it? You do not say ''OMG here it is'', you get to say what is the consequence.
thatisnotright 发表于 2025-05-19 01:12 回复 30楼 环游小世界 的帖子 Ok, it touches 5%, everyone sees it, so what? What is next? It is an alarm and everyone has to exit, or it is a fireworks show and everyone enjoys it? What is it? You do not say ''OMG here it is'', you get to say what is the consequence.
回复 32楼 环游小世界 的帖子 I don't care. Whenever I see someone says something that is meaningless, senseless, smartnessless,commonsenseless, I can not help teach them a lesson. I have no purpose.
看样子今晚又要冲一冲5%了。
债市是股市2,3倍那么大? 这蓄水池出问题就呵呵了。
美元贬值不正是川普需要的吗?联储局估计情愿债券利息升高也要和川普对着干。
听说吸毒每次都需要加大剂量, 跟着世界脱钩。这钱要继续印,就跟吸毒一样,不知哪次就挂了。 那时候股市涨上天,不掌握生产资料的,也只会变成跟maga一样穷。
其他小银行欠的比例就更高了,啥时候会再来一个破产?
所以現在應該買地嗎?
是的,这些大银行都把这些 paper loss 藏起来,但只要利率不降下来,都是大雷。
现在个人消费也要变成雷了,个人信用卡的 DPD60天逾期是这些年的新高,加上 FinTech 搞得 BNPL,消费似乎没降,但是就要到崩溃边缘了。
其实有些paper loss不是大问题,只要说hold to maturity就行。相反把这些paper loss放大才是造成金融危机的祸根。硅谷银行本来正常运营没有问题,但是被某些投机者利用所谓的market to market loss造成了挤兑清盘,差点又弄成08年再现。不过好在这次美联储及时印钱化解了
万亿级别的亏损,甚至达到几十万亿,你居然说不是大问题? 现在都在掩耳盗铃而已。 静待烟花升起,不是IF, 而是when?
硅谷银行是靠印钱化解了,不是哪个大银行收购了吗?
你嘴巴真大,哪里找出来几十万亿亏损,债卷是暂时贬值了,不是违约了好吧
美联储好像是拿了几千亿专门救这些区域银行,所以大部分银行后来都没问题,但是硅谷银行不幸是属于最早暴雷的,所以被某大行接盘了
Ok, it touches 5%, everyone sees it, so what? What is next? It is an alarm and everyone has to exit, or it is a fireworks show and everyone enjoys it? What is it?
You do not say ''OMG here it is'', you get to say what is the consequence.
是这样的,所有交易都是买卖赚差价。 consequence这个东西看你怎么用。
看衰用美元计价的资产,看衰长期美债的,自然不会全部买入美元计价的大盘。 会分配其他货币计价的资产, 大众商品,黄金等。美债上天,我自然很高兴因为我bet对了。 但对于all in美股的人,可能就高兴不起来了。
你如果真想知道,你可以多查查。或许我bet错了,但我用钱下注,自然会关注这些东西。 你不太关注,大概没怎么玩美股外的东西吧。
I don't care. Whenever I see someone says something that is meaningless, senseless, smartnessless,commonsenseless, I can not help teach them a lesson. I have no purpose.