关于贸易战的相当平衡的讨论. https://themarket.ch/interview/george-magnus-nobody-can-win-this-trade-war-ld.13746 《The Market NZZ》的文章采访了前瑞银首席经济学家《红旗》作者乔治·马格努斯, 讨论美中贸易战及其更广泛的影响和全球经济格局。以下是主要内容的总结： 冲突本质：马格努斯认为“贸易战”一词低估了美中之间由高关税和根本经济差异驱动的深层系统性对抗。他认为由于双方巨大分歧，短期内难以解决。 中国经济模式：马格努斯批评中国的重商主义，优先考虑出口顺差和外汇储备，造成全球失衡，加剧贸易冲突。他指出中国不愿刺激内需，进一步恶化矛盾。 美国政策与特朗普策略：特朗普政府的激进关税政策扰乱市场，2025年4月9日因债券市场动荡对多数国家暂时中止90天关税。但美中冲突升级，北京强烈报复。马格努斯称特朗普策略“混乱”，但承认美国对中国模式的批评有理。 谁会赢？：马格努斯认为贸易战无人能胜，高关税扰乱全球贸易，双方都需付出巨大代价。 全球经济稳定：马格努斯设想一个更稳定的体系需合作、减少失衡和改革全球机构，但对短期实现持悲观态度，鉴于当前紧张局势和习近平领导下的中国治理。 更广泛背景：采访涉及去全球化趋势、中国的经济挑战（如房地产问题、产能过剩）以及习近平政权下美元化解除的不可能性，强化了马格努斯对全球经济碎片化的看法。 总之，马格努斯将美中贸易战描绘为一场复杂的、无法取胜的冲突，根植于系统性问题，对全球市场构成重大风险，短期内和平或稳定的前景有限。 The article from The Market NZZ features an interview with George Magnus, former UBS chief economist and author of *Red Flags*, discussing the US-China trade war, its broader implications, and the global economic landscape. Key points include: 1. **Nature of the Conflict**: Magnus argues the term "trade war" understates the deep, systemic rivalry between the US and China, driven by high tariffs and fundamental economic differences. He sees no easy resolution due to the significant rift, describing it as more than just trade disputes. 2. **China’s Economic Model**: Magnus criticizes China’s mercantilist approach, which prioritizes export surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, creating imbalances that fuel global tensions. He notes China’s reluctance to boost domestic demand, exacerbating trade conflicts. 3. **US Policy and Trump’s Approach**: The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies have unsettled markets, with a temporary 90-day tariff suspension on most countries (April 9, 2025) due to bond market tremors. However, the US-China conflict has escalated, with Beijing retaliating strongly. Magnus calls Trump’s strategy a “mess” but acknowledges valid US criticisms of China’s model. 4. **Who Wins?**: Magnus believes no one can win this trade war due to its destructive economic impact. High tariffs disrupt global trade, and neither side is positioned to dominate without significant costs. 5. **Global Economic Stability**: Magnus envisions a more stable system requiring cooperation, reduced imbalances, and reformed global institutions, but he’s pessimistic about achieving this soon given current tensions and China’s governance under Xi Jinping. 6. **Broader Context**: The interview touches on deglobalization trends, China’s economic challenges (e.g., property sector issues, overproduction), and the unlikelihood of de-dollarization under Xi’s regime, reinforcing Magnus’ view of a fragmented global economy. In summary, Magnus portrays the US-China trade war as a complex, unwinnable conflict rooted in systemic issues, with significant risks to global markets and limited prospects for peace or stability in the near term.
In 2023, China's exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP were 19.74% France exports of goods and services as percentage of GDP is 34.01% UK exports of goods and services accounted for 31.66% of its GDP Germany, Exports of goods and services as percentage of GDP is 50.34 %. Japan's exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP were reported at 21.81% In 2023, South Korea's exports of goods and services amounted to 44% of its GDP. In fiscal year 2022, India's exports of goods and services represented approximately 22.79% of its GDP. In 2023, Italy's exports of goods and services accounted for 33.73% of its GDP. 中国出口占GDP比重，比英法德日意韩等几乎所有主要国家都低，甚至比隔壁三哥都低。。。 也就仅仅比美国高一点。。但美国能靠印美元换进口，是全球的例外啊。。 结果，西方媒体楞要睁眼说瞎话，说啥中国经济完全依赖出口外贸，真是撒谎都不打草稿。。
关于贸易战的相当平衡的讨论. https://themarket.ch/interview/george-magnus-nobody-can-win-this-trade-war-ld.13746 《The Market NZZ》的文章采访了前瑞银首席经济学家《红旗》作者乔治·马格努斯, 讨论美中贸易战及其更广泛的影响和全球经济格局。以下是主要内容的总结： 冲突本质：马格努斯认为“贸易战”一词低估了美中之间由高关税和根本经济差异驱动的深层系统性对抗。他认为由于双方巨大分歧，短期内难以解决。 中国经济模式：马格努斯批评中国的重商主义，优先考虑出口顺差和外汇储备，造成全球失衡，加剧贸易冲突。他指出中国不愿刺激内需，进一步恶化矛盾。 美国政策与特朗普策略：特朗普政府的激进关税政策扰乱市场，2025年4月9日因债券市场动荡对多数国家暂时中止90天关税。但美中冲突升级，北京强烈报复。马格努斯称特朗普策略“混乱”，但承认美国对中国模式的批评有理。 谁会赢？：马格努斯认为贸易战无人能胜，高关税扰乱全球贸易，双方都需付出巨大代价。 全球经济稳定：马格努斯设想一个更稳定的体系需合作、减少失衡和改革全球机构，但对短期实现持悲观态度，鉴于当前紧张局势和习近平领导下的中国治理。 更广泛背景：采访涉及去全球化趋势、中国的经济挑战（如房地产问题、产能过剩）以及习近平政权下美元化解除的不可能性，强化了马格努斯对全球经济碎片化的看法。 总之，马格努斯将美中贸易战描绘为一场复杂的、无法取胜的冲突，根植于系统性问题，对全球市场构成重大风险，短期内和平或稳定的前景有限。 The article from The Market NZZ features an interview with George Magnus, former UBS chief economist and author of *Red Flags*, discussing the US-China trade war, its broader implications, and the global economic landscape. Key points include: 1. **Nature of the Conflict**: Magnus argues the term "trade war" understates the deep, systemic rivalry between the US and China, driven by high tariffs and fundamental economic differences. He sees no easy resolution due to the significant rift, describing it as more than just trade disputes. 2. **China’s Economic Model**: Magnus criticizes China’s mercantilist approach, which prioritizes export surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, creating imbalances that fuel global tensions. He notes China’s reluctance to boost domestic demand, exacerbating trade conflicts. 3. **US Policy and Trump’s Approach**: The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies have unsettled markets, with a temporary 90-day tariff suspension on most countries (April 9, 2025) due to bond market tremors. However, the US-China conflict has escalated, with Beijing retaliating strongly. Magnus calls Trump’s strategy a “mess” but acknowledges valid US criticisms of China’s model. 4. **Who Wins?**: Magnus believes no one can win this trade war due to its destructive economic impact. High tariffs disrupt global trade, and neither side is positioned to dominate without significant costs. 5. **Global Economic Stability**: Magnus envisions a more stable system requiring cooperation, reduced imbalances, and reformed global institutions, but he’s pessimistic about achieving this soon given current tensions and China’s governance under Xi Jinping. 6. **Broader Context**: The interview touches on deglobalization trends, China’s economic challenges (e.g., property sector issues, overproduction), and the unlikelihood of de-dollarization under Xi’s regime, reinforcing Magnus’ view of a fragmented global economy. In summary, Magnus portrays the US-China trade war as a complex, unwinnable conflict rooted in systemic issues, with significant risks to global markets and limited prospects for peace or stability in the near term. 海阔 发表于 2025-04-19 01:02
《The Market NZZ》的文章采访了前瑞银首席经济学家《红旗》作者乔治·马格努斯, 讨论美中贸易战及其更广泛的影响和全球经济格局。以下是主要内容的总结： 冲突本质：马格努斯认为“贸易战”一词低估了美中之间由高关税和根本经济差异驱动的深层系统性对抗。他认为由于双方巨大分歧，短期内难以解决。 中国经济模式：马格努斯批评中国的重商主义，优先考虑出口顺差和外汇储备，造成全球失衡，加剧贸易冲突。他指出中国不愿刺激内需，进一步恶化矛盾。 美国政策与特朗普策略：特朗普政府的激进关税政策扰乱市场，2025年4月9日因债券市场动荡对多数国家暂时中止90天关税。但美中冲突升级，北京强烈报复。马格努斯称特朗普策略“混乱”，但承认美国对中国模式的批评有理。 谁会赢？：马格努斯认为贸易战无人能胜，高关税扰乱全球贸易，双方都需付出巨大代价。 全球经济稳定：马格努斯设想一个更稳定的体系需合作、减少失衡和改革全球机构，但对短期实现持悲观态度，鉴于当前紧张局势和习近平领导下的中国治理。 更广泛背景：采访涉及去全球化趋势、中国的经济挑战（如房地产问题、产能过剩）以及习近平政权下美元化解除的不可能性，强化了马格努斯对全球经济碎片化的看法。 总之，马格努斯将美中贸易战描绘为一场复杂的、无法取胜的冲突，根植于系统性问题，对全球市场构成重大风险，短期内和平或稳定的前景有限。
The article from The Market NZZ features an interview with George Magnus, former UBS chief economist and author of *Red Flags*, discussing the US-China trade war, its broader implications, and the global economic landscape. Key points include:
1. **Nature of the Conflict**: Magnus argues the term "trade war" understates the deep, systemic rivalry between the US and China, driven by high tariffs and fundamental economic differences. He sees no easy resolution due to the significant rift, describing it as more than just trade disputes.
2. **China’s Economic Model**: Magnus criticizes China’s mercantilist approach, which prioritizes export surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, creating imbalances that fuel global tensions. He notes China’s reluctance to boost domestic demand, exacerbating trade conflicts.
3. **US Policy and Trump’s Approach**: The Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies have unsettled markets, with a temporary 90-day tariff suspension on most countries (April 9, 2025) due to bond market tremors. However, the US-China conflict has escalated, with Beijing retaliating strongly. Magnus calls Trump’s strategy a “mess” but acknowledges valid US criticisms of China’s model.
4. **Who Wins?**: Magnus believes no one can win this trade war due to its destructive economic impact. High tariffs disrupt global trade, and neither side is positioned to dominate without significant costs.
5. **Global Economic Stability**: Magnus envisions a more stable system requiring cooperation, reduced imbalances, and reformed global institutions, but he’s pessimistic about achieving this soon given current tensions and China’s governance under Xi Jinping.
6. **Broader Context**: The interview touches on deglobalization trends, China’s economic challenges (e.g., property sector issues, overproduction), and the unlikelihood of de-dollarization under Xi’s regime, reinforcing Magnus’ view of a fragmented global economy.
In summary, Magnus portrays the US-China trade war as a complex, unwinnable conflict rooted in systemic issues, with significant risks to global markets and limited prospects for peace or stability in the near term.
这人不见得对中国有多深的研究，真有研究会不知道这些举措么？也可能知道但是他本身对中国就有偏见。
还有什么中国的priorities 是增加美元储备，搞笑呢
中国一直强调经济增长三架马车：消费、投资，外贸
不过我觉得他还是有一定道理的。中国不是四小龙，光靠外贸就可以发展。中国是条占全球近四分之一人口的巨龙，靠外贸起飞可以，但是没法长久持续的。这样迟早会把全球的贸易空间挤占光，这种结局不仅是欧美，就是其他发展中国家，都不愿意看到的。要想稳定发展，内需必须解决。
中国已经按部就班减少米元储备很多年了，埃塞俄比亚的小学生都知道，他居然不知道。。。这个经济学家的含金量也太那啥了
这个道理中国内部也懂，不是有三架马车论，看这次贸易战后政策会不会有更大调整。提观点就客观提，那种恶意揣测下结论很没水平
发钱推高通货膨胀啊，而且大概率发给中国人这钱又进了银行储蓄帐户
为什么中国一定要学欧美？
中国哪有通货膨胀，现在的问题是通货紧缩，CPI 下降 解决通货紧缩的最好办法就是政府支出 搞市场经济就是学的欧美。是不是为了不学欧美，就不遵循经济规律了？
没用的，发钱了老百姓会把钱存起来。倒是可以发补贴卷啥的不能存银行的
你被西方媒体骗了
In 2023, China's exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP were 19.74%
France exports of goods and services as percentage of GDP is 34.01% UK exports of goods and services accounted for 31.66% of its GDP Germany, Exports of goods and services as percentage of GDP is 50.34 %. Japan's exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP were reported at 21.81% In 2023, South Korea's exports of goods and services amounted to 44% of its GDP. In fiscal year 2022, India's exports of goods and services represented approximately 22.79% of its GDP. In 2023, Italy's exports of goods and services accounted for 33.73% of its GDP.
中国出口占GDP比重，比英法德日意韩等几乎所有主要国家都低，甚至比隔壁三哥都低。。。 也就仅仅比美国高一点。。但美国能靠印美元换进口，是全球的例外啊。。
结果，西方媒体楞要睁眼说瞎话，说啥中国经济完全依赖出口外贸，真是撒谎都不打草稿。。
说实话，完全没看出“相当平衡的讨论”，基本就是中国是万恶之源，怪中国人太勤劳了，太能存钱了，其实东亚国家都差不多，就是中国的体量大很多
而中国的消费市场，在发展中国家中绝对不算小的。像米国人那样消费。。。O8很清醒那是不可持续的，对世界才是灾难
美国内需的 2/3是服务业，
美国医疗服务占了GDP 18%，中国只占7% 光这一个产业上的消费就差了 11% GDP 虽然中国人均寿命已经超过美国了。。
所以中国要扩大内需其实很简单， 医疗价格翻倍，大学学费翻倍，马上这消费比例就能上去。。 但这和增加国民福祉，其实毛关系都没有。。
这倒也不是，高房价需要高首付，其实是刺激储蓄。。
房价下来后，有更多钱可以用在其他地方，长期看对消费是利好。。
房价一直上涨 老百姓才愿意把钱从银行里取出来炒房啊，所以地价房价都一直涨。炒房炒股出来之前，老百姓的钱都在银行里，怎么都弄不出来
发钱了会存起来的是少数。早就有研究发现，中国虽然看起来储蓄率高，但是因为收入和财富差距大，实际上超过90%的存款来自少于10%的储户。剩下的90%的储户平时基本是月光。这90%的储户有额外收入的时候也基本用于消费
补充点数据
美国去年消费市场19.8万亿美元，其中大部分都是和世界其他国家基本上没有关系的痛苦消费， 比如4.5万亿美元是医疗保险支出，2.2万亿是虚拟房租支出，1.7万亿是律师诉讼费支出，
而纯商品消费总额是6.3万亿美元，中国是6.2万亿美元，但也是汇率假象，
如果单看消费数据，中国消费了更多的商品， 去年中国消费汽车3千万辆，美国消费1500万辆，注意美国消费市场包括500万辆二手车，而中国不包括二手车，手机消费市场中国是美国的2.6倍，衣食住行几乎所有消费中国总额都超美国几倍，人均都差不多，猪肉消耗中国一个国家占据世界产量百分之54，蔬菜消耗占据世界一半，水果消耗占据世界百分之40，淡水鱼消耗占据世界百分之70，海鲜消耗据世界百分之38。
炒房属于投资行为，不算消费数据 房产装修，电器家具的采购才是消费
所以高房价会压制消费
这数据是你一拍脑袋就来的吧。有钱人有的是投资手段，比起他们的财富来说，存储在银行里的钱是毛毛雨。中国大部分的储蓄来自普通家庭
这简直是放屁啊，这是tmd什么经济学家？层主你要么是故意的，要么也是跟木头差不多。
那货一直都是个屁都不懂的自恨党
中国情况和很多国家相反，底层储蓄率超级高，甚至远高于普通城市中产
因为中国底层的民工，大多数仅仅在城市打工赚钱，买不起城市的房子安家，从事的工作很多也是包吃住的那种。 平时就是打工存钱拿回老家，所以储蓄率普遍在50%以上，甚至80-90%的储蓄率也不少见。 几亿农民工里几乎很少见到月光的。 哪来的9成民众月光
这可不是我拍脑袋的数据。用ChatGPT 一查就能查到：
前1%的人群可能控制了30%-50%的个人存款； 前5%的人群可能控制了60%-70%的个人存款； 前10%的人群可能控制了80%-90%的个人存款。
另外，根据ChatGPT，中国的银行存款分布是这样的： 高收入阶层、企业主、机构投资者持有大量闲置资金，无法找到更好投资渠道，只能存银行。 大量普通家庭储蓄能力弱，银行账户余额非常小 当然，华人网友很多来自国内高收入阶层，估计属于如果政府发钱，无处可用，只能存银行的情况
呵呵，说说为什么是放屁？ 读过辜朝明的“复盘”吗？中国应该好好吸取日本失去的三十年的教训 不只是欧美，香港特区政府也曾经多次无差别给香港居民发钱
西方的好东西中国也想买啊，那么多值钱的高科技产品，问题在于长久以来你啥都禁运，中国总不至于天天买农产品，飞机和石油天然气这么有限的几样吧
前几年习总提出的双循环策略，本质不就是扩大内需吗？本版不是一顿嘲笑闭关锁国走回头路吗？中国干啥都是错的
中国人别说发钱了，就算发购物券，搞不好都直接折价卖了换钱存起来
呵呵，中国有钱人不储蓄没钱人才储蓄。你就编吧
别用gpt查数字，你查个你本专业的东西就知道它会编造数据