https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-trade-war.html After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. Trump said he would be open to tariff talks with other counties if they offer something phenomenal, Reuters reported him saying on Air Force One. Top trade aide Peter Navarro told CNBC less than an hour earlier that the sweeping tariffs are “not a negotiation.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-trade-war.html After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. Trump said he would be open to tariff talks with other counties if they offer something phenomenal, Reuters reported him saying on Air Force One. Top trade aide Peter Navarro told CNBC less than an hour earlier that the sweeping tariffs are “not a negotiation.”
现在美债每年利息支出已经高出军费，难以为继。 必须改变。 Grok: who said when an empire spends more on servicing debt than defense, it's doomed to collapse? 6 posts 15 web pages The idea that an empire is doomed to collapse when it spends more to service its debt than on defense is closely associated with historian Niall Ferguson. He articulated this concept as "Ferguson’s Law," drawing from the 18th-century Scottish philosopher and historian Adam Ferguson’s insights on public debt and its perils. Niall Ferguson formalized this in his writings, notably in a February 21, 2025, Wall Street Journal essay titled "Debt Has Always Been the Ruin of Great Powers. Is the U.S. Next?" There, he stated, "What I call Ferguson’s Law states that any great power that spends more on debt service than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power." He traces this pattern through empires like Habsburg Spain, Bourbon France, and the British Empire, arguing that the U.S. crossed this threshold in 2024, with debt interest payments ($1.124 trillion) exceeding defense spending ($1.107 trillion). Adam Ferguson didn’t phrase it exactly as a doomsday prophecy in his 1767 "Essay on the History of Civil Society," but he warned that excessive public debt could undermine a state’s strength, a point Niall Ferguson built into his modern law. So, while Adam Ferguson laid the intellectual groundwork, Niall Ferguson coined and popularized the specific formulation you’re referencing. No single historical figure said the precise line "when an empire spends more to service debt than defense, it’s doomed to collapse," but Niall Ferguson’s version is the closest match tied to contemporary analysis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-trade-war.html
After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties.
Trump said he would be open to tariff talks with other counties if they offer something phenomenal, Reuters reported him saying on Air Force One.
Top trade aide Peter Navarro told CNBC less than an hour earlier that the sweeping tariffs are “not a negotiation.”
这就是红脸白脸双管齐下吧
没戏，有的翻的，这才刚刚开始，没有牌就创造牌。
我也感觉他是坚决要搞死中国，其他国家都是为了压迫他们也和中国脱钩
他是真的想让制造业回归。所谓谈就是你不能关税报复，报复就再加码
这个回归当然不可能是全面回归，但是只要有一部分回来，在锈带开工招人，他就可以对MAGA基本盘交待了
他想自己加关税同时，别人不报复，保住美国一年两万亿出口，缩小逆差。因为减少了进口，增加了自給，这样每年新美债能少发一些，service 美债利息压力就小一些。美债就能活久远一些，美国就能长久。
这个政策的成效要等到27，28年才能看到。
看懂王豪赌的输赢。
关税用 对美顺差 / 对美总出口 来算，和真正的关税没关系。
哈哈哈哈
必须改变。
Grok:
who said when an empire spends more on servicing debt than defense, it's doomed to collapse?
6 posts
15 web pages The idea that an empire is doomed to collapse when it spends more to service its debt than on defense is closely associated with historian Niall Ferguson. He articulated this concept as "Ferguson’s Law," drawing from the 18th-century Scottish philosopher and historian Adam Ferguson’s insights on public debt and its perils. Niall Ferguson formalized this in his writings, notably in a February 21, 2025, Wall Street Journal essay titled "Debt Has Always Been the Ruin of Great Powers. Is the U.S. Next?" There, he stated, "What I call Ferguson’s Law states that any great power that spends more on debt service than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power." He traces this pattern through empires like Habsburg Spain, Bourbon France, and the British Empire, arguing that the U.S. crossed this threshold in 2024, with debt interest payments ($1.124 trillion) exceeding defense spending ($1.107 trillion). Adam Ferguson didn’t phrase it exactly as a doomsday prophecy in his 1767 "Essay on the History of Civil Society," but he warned that excessive public debt could undermine a state’s strength, a point Niall Ferguson built into his modern law. So, while Adam Ferguson laid the intellectual groundwork, Niall Ferguson coined and popularized the specific formulation you’re referencing. No single historical figure said the precise line "when an empire spends more to service debt than defense, it’s doomed to collapse," but Niall Ferguson’s version is the closest match tied to contemporary analysis.
对川王来讲目前的敌人不是俄罗斯是中国，中国是世界上第一个敢跳出来跟King说any war, fight until the end... 哪吒的火儿是不是也是13亿中国人内心的声音“我们为什莫就不能活得好”？ 王侯将相，宁有种乎？哪吒最后得我想试试！
他这波全球各国加关税，不是针对中国了，而是觉得全世界都欠美国的。
加美国进口的关税还能压迫其它国家与中国脱钩？ 想多了。你别自己脚指头都被砸了操心的却是别人的锤子掉下来砸哪儿
笑死我了，你们看了多少轮子微信贴才能写出这么不知所云的一滩
为了搞中国所以先搞全世界？ 感觉我的逻辑都白学了
Trump是北方哪里的？
正常的老外不会这么说，估计是民运假扮的
想要个好deal也要等人家来求他呀。这在菜市场买菜，刚转身小贩还没叫呢，自家熊孩子就喊，不买菜晚上咱家就断顿了，饿呀，然后自己就又凑回来了，还划个p的价呀。
你是资本的话，你会来吗？
哪些厂子来了 就加入抵制黑名单 拒绝购买 让他们全部亏飞
你真是trump肚里的蛔虫啊！ Lol
生动形象，一针见血
Re.单纯就是懂王觉得美国最最牛逼，谁也不敢动美国，给各国加关税人家不敢对他加，美国就赚大了. 牛轰轰的.治国如一拍屁股一拍脑袋主意就出来了.
不是了，太拿衣服了。别的国家就是陪绑，马上就跪然后给颗糖，欧盟之类扭捏一下估计也会跪，中国估计不会跪。针对的主要就是中国
又不是真搞全世界，懂王这么优秀的reality show演员，好歹是有演员素质的，要演都是全套。然后鼻屎小国连吓带哄就跪了，大一点的经济体半推半掩就从了，中国就变成唯一一家了，懂王的真实目的达到了
我根本不信川普有弄这种迂回战术的智商
外包到印度的工作红脖子川粉干不了。没有那个智商。
不要胡说八道，我在深蓝州，一个码公的job贴出来，马上大批大批的简历飞进来
你说的完全逻辑不通
其他国家跪了以后到底对他们还加不加关税？ 继续加的话，那不还是搞全世界。
假设不加，那打他一巴掌给谁看呢？直接开始就拍拍手跺跺脚你是我的好朋友不香吗？ 非得打的离心离德先？ 就像俄乌战争，非得先对欧洲骑着脖子拉屎，然后大家一笑泯恩仇？可能吗
妹妹好有才，罗马假日的握手篇
call center, customer service, 红脖干不了？
還是基於自身實力的關係才能長久。
他就是白人至上种族主义，以前怼墨西哥人，怼这个那个，第二次选举为了选票暂时闭上嘴没有喷。
TRUMP这么玩，保安再多最后也会跟前两被爆头的总统一样。 不退步，一定还会连累家人。
毕竟这一套乱拳出去，得罪的人不会少。
這次是川普執政對他自己傷害最大的錯誤 他以前也有很多錯誤 但不會像這次對他傷害這麼大 二次世界大戰德國再怎麼強 也打不贏這麼多國家 先不說關稅戰爭合不合理 沒有人會這麼笨同時開啟和這麼多國家的戰爭
为啥别的国家要听米国的跟中国脱钩？中国可以提供工业制成品，可以提供全世界最大的市场（之一），别的国家有资源的可以卖资源，有农产品的可以卖农产品，也可以接手中国转出的产业链。米国能提供什么？这么多年了米国就提供市场，和印绿纸片换别人的东西，现在巨巨说印绿纸片换东西自己吃亏了，那米国还能提供啥？好莱坞？
川普的逻辑就是极限施压让别人屈服，对不对不评判，反正他就是想以关税为筹码换取其他东西
现在对美国最大问题就是中国是大多数国家最大的贸易国，要这些国家和中国脱钩美国并没有很大的底气
2019 真的是此后十年里最好的一年。
他不一定会接受还价。川普早年的访谈就有提到贸易逆差，认为对美国不公平。这是他的不忘初心。这次关税比例也是按贸易逆差额定的。关税可以降，但贸易差额不是政府大手一挥就能调节成0的。
他的团队里专业的经济学家已经被清洗干净了。除了溜须拍马之徒，就是maga系Project2025这帮人。Project2025就是要掀桌子的。
听新闻说是阿迪达斯，NiKe要设厂？
想着川普这通乱拳是为了让世界各国跟中国脱钩，想着其它国家跟随着米国与中国脱钩，真是川粉或者华黑的wishful thinking。想什么呢？这世界上一天到晚贬中国黑中国的，除了米国，无国能出其右，米国把欧洲拿捏得这么死， 欧洲都没有宣称和中国脱钩的勇气。真当这世界上除了米国和他的跟班，其它国家都不存在么？
哈哈
不一惊一乍的，股市跳水玩呢？
肯定买了put，准备换call了， 他的基金会又赚到了
突然想到2029年正好是川大这届任期结束，难道真的要折腾四年
欲练神功挥刀自宫啊……
闭嘴了吗？吃猫吃狗谁说的？垃圾岛他不也认同？