The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia is generating an enormous amount of buzz in China, and could potentially be immensely important. 关于中国在沙特阿拉伯发行以美元计价的主权债券的消息在中国引起了极大的关注，这可能具有重要意义。 I strongly suspect it''s a message to the upcoming Trump administration. 我强烈怀疑这是一条向即将上任的特朗普政府传递的信息。 Let me explain what seems to be going on. 让我来解释一下似乎正在发生的事情。 On the face of it, it''s not a major story: China issued $2 billion in USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia, which means that investors lent USD to the Chinese government that they promised to pay back. That''s what a bond is. So far, relatively boring. 乍一看，这并不是一个重大新闻：中国在沙特阿拉伯发行了20亿美元的以美元计价的主权债券，这意味着投资者向中国政府借出了美元，并承诺偿还。这就是债券的定义。目前为止，相对无聊。 The first somewhat interesting aspect of it is that the bonds were oversubscribed by almost 20x (meaning $40+ billion in demand for $2 billion worth of bonds), which is far more demand than usual for USD sovereign bonds. 第一个稍微有趣的方面是，这些债券的认购超额近20倍（意味着对20亿美元债券的需求超过400亿美元），这远远超过了以美元计价的主权债券的通常需求。 Typically US Treasury auctions see oversubscription rate between 2x to 3x so there obviously seems to be very strong market appeal for China''s dollar-denominated debt. 通常，美国国债拍卖的超额认购率在2倍到3倍之间，因此显然，中国的以美元计价的债务在市场上具有非常强的吸引力。 The second interesting aspect is that the interest rate on the bonds was remarkably close to US Treasury rates (just 1-3 basis points higher, i.e. 0.01-0.03%), which means that China is now able to borrow money - in US dollars (!) - at virtually the same rate as the US government itself. 第二个有趣的方面是，这些债券的利率与美国国债利率非常接近（仅高出1-3个基点，即0.01-0.03%），这意味着中国现在能够以几乎与美国政府相同的利率借入美元（！）。 That''s the case for no other country in the world. 这是世界上其他国家所没有的情况。 As a benchmark, countries with the highest credit ratings (AAA) typically pay at least 10-20 basis points over US Treasuries in the rare instances when they issue USD bonds. 作为基准，信用评级最高的国家（AAA）在发行美元债券的罕见情况下，通常至少支付比美国国债高出10-20个基点的利率。 The third interesting aspect is the venue itself for this bond sale: Saudi Arabia. This is unusual since sovereign bonds are typically issued in major financial centers, not in Riyadh. 第三个有趣的方面是这次债券发行的地点：沙特阿拉伯。这很不寻常，因为主权债券通常是在主要金融中心发行，而不是在利雅得。 The choice of Saudi Arabia and the fact that the Saudis agreed to this is particularly significant given its historical role in the global dollar system, the so-called ''petrodollar'' system which I don''t need to explain... 选择沙特阿拉伯以及沙特同意这一点尤其重要，因为沙特在全球美元体系中的历史角色，即所谓的“石油美元”体系，我不需要解释。 By issuing dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia that compete directly with US Treasuries, and getting essentially the same interest rate, China is demonstrating it can operate as an alternative manager of dollar liquidity right in the heart of the petrodollar system. 通过在沙特阿拉伯发行与美国国债直接竞争的美元债券，并获得基本相同的利率，中国正在表明它可以在石油美元体系的核心地区作为美元流动性的替代管理者。 For Saudi Arabia, which holds hundreds of billions in dollar reserves, this creates a new option for investing their dollars: they can invest it with the Chinese government instead of the US government. 对于持有数千亿美元美元储备的沙特阿拉伯来说，这为他们投资美元创造了一个新选择：他们可以选择投资于中国政府，而不是美国政府。 Ok, that''s all interesting but still not the main reason why Chinese social media is abuzz. 好的，这些都很有趣，但仍然不是中国社交媒体热议的主要原因。 The reason why is because they postulate that this is a trial round by China to demonstrate to the US that they can effectively use their own currency against them, with potentially dramatic consequences. 原因在于，他们推测这是一轮中国的试探，旨在向美国展示他们可以有效地利用自己的货币对抗美国，这可能会产生戏剧性的后果。 How? 怎么做？ First of all, think it through, imagine if China scales this up and instead of issuing $2 billion worth of bonds, they start issuing 10s or 100s of billions worth of it. 首先，仔细想想，想象一下如果中国扩大规模，而不是发行20亿美元的债券，而是开始发行数百亿或数千亿美元的债券。 What this means for the US is that China would effectively be competing with the US Treasury in the global dollar market. 这对美国意味着，中国实际上将在全球美元市场上与美国国债竞争。 Instead of countries like Saudi Arabia automatically recycling their dollars into US Treasury bonds, they could put them into Chinese dollar bonds that pay the same rate. 而不是像沙特阿拉伯这样的国家自动将他们的美元再投资于美国国债，他们可以将其投入支付相同利率的中国美元债券。 This would create a parallel dollar system where China, not the US, controls part of the flow of dollars. 这将创造一个平行的美元体系，在这个体系中，中国而不是美国控制部分美元流动。 The US would still print the dollars, but China would increasingly manage where they go. Imagine that... 美国仍然会印制美元，但中国将越来越多地管理这些美元的去向。想象一下…… Another critical aspect is that every dollar that goes into Chinese bonds instead of US Treasuries is one less dollar helping to finance US government spending. 另一个关键方面是，每一个流入中国债券而不是美国国债的美元，都是一个减少帮助融资美国政府支出的美元。 At a time when the US is running massive deficits and needs to constantly sell Treasury bonds to fund itself, having China emerge as a competing dollar bond issuer that can match Treasury rates could pose immense financing problems for the US government. 在美国面临巨额赤字并需要不断出售国债以为自己融资的时刻，中国作为一个能够匹配国债利率的竞争性美元债券发行者的出现，可能会给美国政府带来巨大的融资问题。 It could effectively end the US''s so-called “exorbitant privilege”. 这可能会有效地终结美国所谓的“过度特权”。 But wait, you might ask yourself, what''s the point of China having so many dollars? 但等等，你可能会问，为什么中国需要这么多美元？ Don''t they transfer the problem to themselves: they too need to find a place to invest all these dollars, don''t they? 难道他们不把问题转移给自己吗：他们也需要找到地方来投资这些美元，不是吗？ You''d be right, the last thing China needs is more US dollars: in 2023 it ran a US dollar trade surplus of $823.2 billion, and for 2024, it''s expected to be $940 billion. 你是对的，中国最不需要的就是更多的美元：在2023年，中国的美元贸易顺差为8232亿美元，预计2024年将达到9400亿美元。 China is already absolutely awash with dollars. 中国已经完全充斥着美元。 But that''s where the beauty of the Belt & Road Initiative comes in. 但这就是“一带一路”倡议的美妙之处。 Out of the 193 countries in the world, 152 of these countries are part of the BRI. 在世界上193个国家中，有152个国家是“一带一路”倡议的一部分。 And a very common characteristic many of these countries have is: they owe debt in USD, to the US government or other Western lenders. 这些国家有一个非常共同的特点：它们欠美国政府或其他西方贷方的美元债务。 This is where China''s strategy could become truly clever. 这就是中国战略可能变得真正聪明的地方。 China could use its US dollars to help Belt & Road countries pay off their dollar debts to Western lenders. 中国可以利用其美元帮助“一带一路”国家偿还对西方贷方的美元债务。 But here''s the key: in exchange for helping these countries clear their dollar debts, China could arrange to be repaid in yuan, or in strategic resources, or through other bilateral arrangements. 但关键在于：为了帮助这些国家清除美元债务，中国可以安排以人民币、战略资源或其他双边安排的方式进行偿还。 This would create a triple win for China: they get rid of their excess dollars, they help their partner countries escape dollar dependency, and they deepen these countries'' economic integration with China instead of the US. 这将为中国创造三重胜利：他们摆脱多余的美元，帮助合作伙伴国家摆脱对美元的依赖，并加深这些国家与中国而非美国的经济一体化。 For BRI countries, this is attractive because they can escape the trap of dollar-denominated debt (and the threat of US financial sanctions) and get likely better conditions with China, which will help their development. 对于“一带一路”国家来说，这很有吸引力，因为他们可以摆脱以美元计价的债务陷阱（以及美国金融制裁的威胁），并获得与中国更好的条件，这将有助于他们的发展。 In effect, this would be China placing itself as an intermediary at the heart of the dollar system, where the dollars still eventually make their way back to the US - just through a path that builds Chinese rather than American influence and progressively undermines the US''s ability to finance itself (with all the consequences this has on inflation, etc.). 实际上，这将使中国作为美元体系核心的中介，美元最终仍会回到美国——只是通过一条建立中国而非美国影响力的路径，逐步削弱美国的融资能力（这对通货膨胀等的影响是显而易见的）。 At this stage, you probably tell yourself, "come on, there''s no way China can do that, the US government surely has tools at its disposal to prevent this stuff." 在这个阶段，你可能会告诉自己：“得了吧，中国不可能做到这一点，美国政府肯定有工具可以阻止这些事情。” And the answer, surprisingly, is that there is actually little the U.S. can do that doesn''t undermine them in some shape or form. 而答案是，令人惊讶的是，美国实际上几乎无能为力，任何行动都可能以某种形式削弱他们自己。 The most obvious response would be to threaten sanctions against countries - like Saudi Arabia - or institutions that buy Chinese dollar bonds. 最明显的反应是威胁对购买中国美元债券的国家（如沙特阿拉伯）或机构实施制裁。 But this would further demonstrate that dollar assets aren''t actually safe from US political interference, further encouraging countries to diversify, compounding the problem. 但这将进一步表明，美元资产实际上并不安全于美国的政治干预，进一步鼓励国家进行多元化，从而加剧问题。 The dollar''s strength partly comes from network effects - everyone uses it because everyone else uses it - but as we''ve seen with Russia, sanctions create a coordinating moment for countries to move away together, weakening these network effects. 美元的强势部分源于网络效应——每个人都使用它，因为其他人也在使用它——但正如我们在俄罗斯身上看到的，制裁为国家共同转向其他货币创造了协调时刻，削弱了这些网络效应。 Another option would be for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to make US Treasuries more attractive. 另一个选择是美联储提高利率，使美国国债更具吸引力。 But this would be self-defeating: it would increase the US government''s own borrowing costs at a time when they''re already struggling with massive deficits, potentially triggering a recession. 但这将是自我挫败的：这会在美国政府已经面临巨额赤字的情况下增加其借贷成本，可能引发经济衰退。 And China, getting similar rates as the US, could simply match any rate increase. 而中国获得与美国相似的利率，可以简单地匹配任何利率的上调。 The US could also go for the "nuclear option" of restricting China''s ability to clear dollar transactions, but this would effectively immediately fragment the global financial system, undermining the dollar''s role as the global reserve currency - exactly what the US wants to avoid. 美国还可以采取“核选项”，限制中国清算美元交易的能力，但这将立即有效地分裂全球金融体系，削弱美元作为全球储备货币的角色——这正是美国想要避免的。 And with China being the most important trading partner of the immense majority of the world''s countries, nothing is less sure that the U.S. would win at this game... 而中国是世界上绝大多数国家最重要的贸易伙伴，美国在这场游戏中获胜的可能性更是微乎其微…… In short, this seems to be like some sort of Tai Chi ''four ounces moving a thousand pounds'' (四兩撥千斤) move by China, using minimal force to redirect the dollar''s strength in a way that benefits China. 总之，这似乎是中国的一种太极“以四两拨千斤”的动作，利用最小的力量以有利于中国的方式重新引导美元的力量。 Like I wrote at the beginning, however, at this stage this is most likely just a message by China to the upcoming Trump administration: 正如我在开头所写的，然而，在这个阶段，这很可能只是中国对即将上任的特朗普政府发出的信息： "We can do this so maybe think very carefully about all the nasty things you have in mind for us..." “我们可以这样做，所以请仔细考虑你们对我们心怀的所有恶意想法……” The beauty of this move is how strategically elegant it is: it costs China almost nothing to demonstrate, but forces Washington to contemplate some very uncomfortable possibilities. 这一举动的美妙之处在于其战略优雅：这几乎不需要中国付出任何代价，但却迫使华盛顿考虑一些非常不舒服的可能性。
I strongly suspect it''s a message to the upcoming Trump administration. 我强烈怀疑这是一条向即将上任的特朗普政府传递的信息。
Let me explain what seems to be going on. 让我来解释一下似乎正在发生的事情。
On the face of it, it''s not a major story: China issued $2 billion in USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia, which means that investors lent USD to the Chinese government that they promised to pay back. That''s what a bond is. So far, relatively boring. 乍一看，这并不是一个重大新闻：中国在沙特阿拉伯发行了20亿美元的以美元计价的主权债券，这意味着投资者向中国政府借出了美元，并承诺偿还。这就是债券的定义。目前为止，相对无聊。
The first somewhat interesting aspect of it is that the bonds were oversubscribed by almost 20x (meaning $40+ billion in demand for $2 billion worth of bonds), which is far more demand than usual for USD sovereign bonds. 第一个稍微有趣的方面是，这些债券的认购超额近20倍（意味着对20亿美元债券的需求超过400亿美元），这远远超过了以美元计价的主权债券的通常需求。
Typically US Treasury auctions see oversubscription rate between 2x to 3x so there obviously seems to be very strong market appeal for China''s dollar-denominated debt. 通常，美国国债拍卖的超额认购率在2倍到3倍之间，因此显然，中国的以美元计价的债务在市场上具有非常强的吸引力。
The second interesting aspect is that the interest rate on the bonds was remarkably close to US Treasury rates (just 1-3 basis points higher, i.e. 0.01-0.03%), which means that China is now able to borrow money - in US dollars (!) - at virtually the same rate as the US government itself. 第二个有趣的方面是，这些债券的利率与美国国债利率非常接近（仅高出1-3个基点，即0.01-0.03%），这意味着中国现在能够以几乎与美国政府相同的利率借入美元（！）。
That''s the case for no other country in the world. 这是世界上其他国家所没有的情况。
As a benchmark, countries with the highest credit ratings (AAA) typically pay at least 10-20 basis points over US Treasuries in the rare instances when they issue USD bonds. 作为基准，信用评级最高的国家（AAA）在发行美元债券的罕见情况下，通常至少支付比美国国债高出10-20个基点的利率。
The third interesting aspect is the venue itself for this bond sale: Saudi Arabia. This is unusual since sovereign bonds are typically issued in major financial centers, not in Riyadh. 第三个有趣的方面是这次债券发行的地点：沙特阿拉伯。这很不寻常，因为主权债券通常是在主要金融中心发行，而不是在利雅得。
The choice of Saudi Arabia and the fact that the Saudis agreed to this is particularly significant given its historical role in the global dollar system, the so-called ''petrodollar'' system which I don''t need to explain... 选择沙特阿拉伯以及沙特同意这一点尤其重要，因为沙特在全球美元体系中的历史角色，即所谓的“石油美元”体系，我不需要解释。
By issuing dollar bonds in Saudi Arabia that compete directly with US Treasuries, and getting essentially the same interest rate, China is demonstrating it can operate as an alternative manager of dollar liquidity right in the heart of the petrodollar system. 通过在沙特阿拉伯发行与美国国债直接竞争的美元债券，并获得基本相同的利率，中国正在表明它可以在石油美元体系的核心地区作为美元流动性的替代管理者。
For Saudi Arabia, which holds hundreds of billions in dollar reserves, this creates a new option for investing their dollars: they can invest it with the Chinese government instead of the US government. 对于持有数千亿美元美元储备的沙特阿拉伯来说，这为他们投资美元创造了一个新选择：他们可以选择投资于中国政府，而不是美国政府。
Ok, that''s all interesting but still not the main reason why Chinese social media is abuzz. 好的，这些都很有趣，但仍然不是中国社交媒体热议的主要原因。 The reason why is because they postulate that this is a trial round by China to demonstrate to the US that they can effectively use their own currency against them, with potentially dramatic consequences. 原因在于，他们推测这是一轮中国的试探，旨在向美国展示他们可以有效地利用自己的货币对抗美国，这可能会产生戏剧性的后果。
How? 怎么做？ First of all, think it through, imagine if China scales this up and instead of issuing $2 billion worth of bonds, they start issuing 10s or 100s of billions worth of it. 首先，仔细想想，想象一下如果中国扩大规模，而不是发行20亿美元的债券，而是开始发行数百亿或数千亿美元的债券。
What this means for the US is that China would effectively be competing with the US Treasury in the global dollar market. 这对美国意味着，中国实际上将在全球美元市场上与美国国债竞争。
Instead of countries like Saudi Arabia automatically recycling their dollars into US Treasury bonds, they could put them into Chinese dollar bonds that pay the same rate. 而不是像沙特阿拉伯这样的国家自动将他们的美元再投资于美国国债，他们可以将其投入支付相同利率的中国美元债券。
This would create a parallel dollar system where China, not the US, controls part of the flow of dollars. 这将创造一个平行的美元体系，在这个体系中，中国而不是美国控制部分美元流动。
The US would still print the dollars, but China would increasingly manage where they go. Imagine that... 美国仍然会印制美元，但中国将越来越多地管理这些美元的去向。想象一下……
Another critical aspect is that every dollar that goes into Chinese bonds instead of US Treasuries is one less dollar helping to finance US government spending. 另一个关键方面是，每一个流入中国债券而不是美国国债的美元，都是一个减少帮助融资美国政府支出的美元。
At a time when the US is running massive deficits and needs to constantly sell Treasury bonds to fund itself, having China emerge as a competing dollar bond issuer that can match Treasury rates could pose immense financing problems for the US government. 在美国面临巨额赤字并需要不断出售国债以为自己融资的时刻，中国作为一个能够匹配国债利率的竞争性美元债券发行者的出现，可能会给美国政府带来巨大的融资问题。
It could effectively end the US''s so-called “exorbitant privilege”. 这可能会有效地终结美国所谓的“过度特权”。
But wait, you might ask yourself, what''s the point of China having so many dollars? 但等等，你可能会问，为什么中国需要这么多美元？
Don''t they transfer the problem to themselves: they too need to find a place to invest all these dollars, don''t they? 难道他们不把问题转移给自己吗：他们也需要找到地方来投资这些美元，不是吗？
You''d be right, the last thing China needs is more US dollars: in 2023 it ran a US dollar trade surplus of $823.2 billion, and for 2024, it''s expected to be $940 billion. 你是对的，中国最不需要的就是更多的美元：在2023年，中国的美元贸易顺差为8232亿美元，预计2024年将达到9400亿美元。
China is already absolutely awash with dollars. 中国已经完全充斥着美元。
But that''s where the beauty of the Belt & Road Initiative comes in. 但这就是“一带一路”倡议的美妙之处。
Out of the 193 countries in the world, 152 of these countries are part of the BRI. 在世界上193个国家中，有152个国家是“一带一路”倡议的一部分。
And a very common characteristic many of these countries have is: they owe debt in USD, to the US government or other Western lenders. 这些国家有一个非常共同的特点：它们欠美国政府或其他西方贷方的美元债务。
This is where China''s strategy could become truly clever. 这就是中国战略可能变得真正聪明的地方。
China could use its US dollars to help Belt & Road countries pay off their dollar debts to Western lenders. 中国可以利用其美元帮助“一带一路”国家偿还对西方贷方的美元债务。
But here''s the key: in exchange for helping these countries clear their dollar debts, China could arrange to be repaid in yuan, or in strategic resources, or through other bilateral arrangements. 但关键在于：为了帮助这些国家清除美元债务，中国可以安排以人民币、战略资源或其他双边安排的方式进行偿还。
This would create a triple win for China: they get rid of their excess dollars, they help their partner countries escape dollar dependency, and they deepen these countries'' economic integration with China instead of the US. 这将为中国创造三重胜利：他们摆脱多余的美元，帮助合作伙伴国家摆脱对美元的依赖，并加深这些国家与中国而非美国的经济一体化。
For BRI countries, this is attractive because they can escape the trap of dollar-denominated debt (and the threat of US financial sanctions) and get likely better conditions with China, which will help their development. 对于“一带一路”国家来说，这很有吸引力，因为他们可以摆脱以美元计价的债务陷阱（以及美国金融制裁的威胁），并获得与中国更好的条件，这将有助于他们的发展。
In effect, this would be China placing itself as an intermediary at the heart of the dollar system, where the dollars still eventually make their way back to the US - just through a path that builds Chinese rather than American influence and progressively undermines the US''s ability to finance itself (with all the consequences this has on inflation, etc.). 实际上，这将使中国作为美元体系核心的中介，美元最终仍会回到美国——只是通过一条建立中国而非美国影响力的路径，逐步削弱美国的融资能力（这对通货膨胀等的影响是显而易见的）。
At this stage, you probably tell yourself, "come on, there''s no way China can do that, the US government surely has tools at its disposal to prevent this stuff." 在这个阶段，你可能会告诉自己：“得了吧，中国不可能做到这一点，美国政府肯定有工具可以阻止这些事情。”
And the answer, surprisingly, is that there is actually little the U.S. can do that doesn''t undermine them in some shape or form. 而答案是，令人惊讶的是，美国实际上几乎无能为力，任何行动都可能以某种形式削弱他们自己。
The most obvious response would be to threaten sanctions against countries - like Saudi Arabia - or institutions that buy Chinese dollar bonds. 最明显的反应是威胁对购买中国美元债券的国家（如沙特阿拉伯）或机构实施制裁。
But this would further demonstrate that dollar assets aren''t actually safe from US political interference, further encouraging countries to diversify, compounding the problem. 但这将进一步表明，美元资产实际上并不安全于美国的政治干预，进一步鼓励国家进行多元化，从而加剧问题。
The dollar''s strength partly comes from network effects - everyone uses it because everyone else uses it - but as we''ve seen with Russia, sanctions create a coordinating moment for countries to move away together, weakening these network effects. 美元的强势部分源于网络效应——每个人都使用它，因为其他人也在使用它——但正如我们在俄罗斯身上看到的，制裁为国家共同转向其他货币创造了协调时刻，削弱了这些网络效应。
Another option would be for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to make US Treasuries more attractive. 另一个选择是美联储提高利率，使美国国债更具吸引力。
But this would be self-defeating: it would increase the US government''s own borrowing costs at a time when they''re already struggling with massive deficits, potentially triggering a recession. 但这将是自我挫败的：这会在美国政府已经面临巨额赤字的情况下增加其借贷成本，可能引发经济衰退。
And China, getting similar rates as the US, could simply match any rate increase. 而中国获得与美国相似的利率，可以简单地匹配任何利率的上调。
The US could also go for the "nuclear option" of restricting China''s ability to clear dollar transactions, but this would effectively immediately fragment the global financial system, undermining the dollar''s role as the global reserve currency - exactly what the US wants to avoid. 美国还可以采取“核选项”，限制中国清算美元交易的能力，但这将立即有效地分裂全球金融体系，削弱美元作为全球储备货币的角色——这正是美国想要避免的。
And with China being the most important trading partner of the immense majority of the world''s countries, nothing is less sure that the U.S. would win at this game... 而中国是世界上绝大多数国家最重要的贸易伙伴，美国在这场游戏中获胜的可能性更是微乎其微……
In short, this seems to be like some sort of Tai Chi ''four ounces moving a thousand pounds'' (四兩撥千斤) move by China, using minimal force to redirect the dollar''s strength in a way that benefits China. 总之，这似乎是中国的一种太极“以四两拨千斤”的动作，利用最小的力量以有利于中国的方式重新引导美元的力量。
Like I wrote at the beginning, however, at this stage this is most likely just a message by China to the upcoming Trump administration: 正如我在开头所写的，然而，在这个阶段，这很可能只是中国对即将上任的特朗普政府发出的信息： "We can do this so maybe think very carefully about all the nasty things you have in mind for us..." “我们可以这样做，所以请仔细考虑你们对我们心怀的所有恶意想法……”
The beauty of this move is how strategically elegant it is: it costs China almost nothing to demonstrate, but forces Washington to contemplate some very uncomfortable possibilities. 这一举动的美妙之处在于其战略优雅：这几乎不需要中国付出任何代价，但却迫使华盛顿考虑一些非常不舒服的可能性。
叫你美元武器化。。。
你大概不知道中国在常规军力已经碾压美军了，而美国唯一的护国依仗是核武器 -- 问题是，美国干吗要打核战争？
看起来不是什么acrredited source
然后再狗了Housetrip的funding，发现已经早被TripAdvisor收购。只是按下面这个链接里讲的故事看，这个Housetrip一开始就是夫妻创业店（妻子是中国人），初期投资人在整个过程里血本无归。如果查到的是这个写文章人的真实背景，我觉着最大可能是现在他也就是靠接点儿宣传部的活儿挣钱了。
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/housetripcom-how-make-70m-disappear-sam-friend/
就事论事很难么
这次发行的是3年期和5年期两种主权债，利率分别为4.28%和4.34%，而最近美债利率都已经飙升到了4.4%。
也就是说，中国借美元的利息比美国自己借美元的利息还低。
借钱利息低说明什么？ 说明大家看好你，都上赶着把钱借给你，所以才把利息压下去。
而美联储降息后，基准利率已经来到4.5%，美债仅比基准利率低了0.1%，说明什么？ 说明人家觉着美债的风险并不比银行定存低多少，美国已经很难再借到钱了。
这也是为什么最近美元走强的原因，因为大家都担心美联储停止降息，甚至反过来加息。 因为再降息，美债利率将要跟基准利率倒挂，美债没准要崩盘。
打个比方 美国利用军事霸权在全世界承包鱼塘，再利用印钞和利率控制鱼塘水量。 降息往鱼塘灌水养鱼，等鱼长得差不多了，再加息把水抽干捞鱼。
长期以来，这些鱼塘被美国反复涸泽而渔，主人们却敢怒而不敢言。
然而近几年情况发生了变化，鱼塘里除了美国人的管子，又多了一条管子。 美国抽水他就放水，导致鱼塘怎么抽都抽不干，憋了半天劲最后一条鱼都没捞到。 更可气的是，这条管子还越玩越花，不但用自己的钱放水，现在又开始从水多的鱼塘抽水放给缺水的鱼塘。
说实话，实在看不太懂里边儿的逻辑。
他说可能的威胁来自把自己借来的大量美元转借给其他穷国去还债，也就是买断债权用自己的信用给其他当前的穷国的债权人解套。
下面的几年甚至更长的时间，是全世界经济都面对严重挑战的时候，债务危机会此起彼伏，然后有个觉着自己特有钱的公子哥竟然想要接飞刀称其为逆向操作的绝佳投资机会（认为其他的smart money都蠢死了）可以接盘投资别人都觉着风险远大于收益的第三世界。更神奇的是这个公子哥，自己的各个子公司还有一堆烂债不知道如何化解，但找了点儿钱不用来投资自己的子公司却觉着投资其他第三世界的风险收益比更高？
我反正看不明白这是啥商业逻辑。
搜了一下X，还真是同一个人。从下面X的链接看，似乎现在主要靠自媒体和卖中草药挣钱了？都是宣传口的生意嘛
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand
https://www.meandqi.com/
https://www.shine.cn/news/in-focus/2109134969/
但是（凡事都怕一个但是），今年中他们把家竟然从上海搬到马来西亚这个穷地儿去了。这是在表演“挺华是工作，去华是生活”以此学习和致敬司马夹头的“反美是工作，赴美是生活”这个信仰吗？而结果只搬到了马来西亚是因为还没像司马夹头那样挣到足够多韭菜的爱国税吗？
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1803955537538908358
好吧， 就算中国主权债券 3年期的利率是4.28%， 5年的是4.34%， 现在美债3年期的yield是4.22%, 5年的yield 是4.19%， 而我们不知道中国的这个债券发行价是多少， 是折扣还是票面值还是溢价， 所以无法知道其 yield.
中国为什么要这么多美元？不是自己美元已经“多到溢出来”了吗？为什么要花4%， 5% 的高价去借美元？ 要知道人民币的利率才2%左右啊。正常的投资策略， 应该买入美债而不是发行美债。以前吹“厉害了我的国”的时候， 都说"中国人借钱给美国“， 说的是中国政府投资美元国债。所以中国买美债是赢了， 卖美债还是赢了， 赢两次？
发行美元债券， 是因为需要美元， 为什么需要美元？那就不好说了， 是因为外汇储存没有像吹的那么多吗？是国外的投资都不进来了吗？ 借了这么多美元， 而国内的投资收益如果在2%左右的话， 拿什么还？
美国怕中国发行美债吗？美国任何一个信用还不错的大公司， 都可以随便发行债券， 地方政府也可以发行自己的债券， 欧洲很多公司， 以及世界上很多国家， 都可以发行美债， 银行怕你借钱吗？你在利息最高， 而且预期下行的时候去银行借钱， 目的是为了"搞垮银行"?
当然，也可以学巴西阿根廷什么的， 最后耍无赖， 破产了不还了， 如果体量够大， 的确对美元有损害， 不过， 国家破产可是有深远破坏作用的， 我也不相信中国会破产。