https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ Harris leads in Ann Selzer's final Iowa poll by 3 points. Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Selzer's previous poll in September showed Turmp up by 4 points, meaning a flip of 7 points. In 2020 Selzer was the outlier saying that Trump was up 7% when other pollsters were saying it was tied or even showed Biden leading. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2%. Political junkies were keeping their eyes peeled for this poll, saying that if Trump was up anywhere from 1-4% it would be a Harris over-performance. Results of the poll: Harris 47% Trump 44% Kennedy 3% Not sure 3% Don't want to say 2% Someone else 1% Most shockingly with this poll, Harris leads senior voters. Senior men prefer Harris by 47% to 45%, while senior women prefer Harris by a whopping 2-1 margin of 63% to 28%. Independent women choose Harris by a 28 point margin while Trump has a smaller majority with Independent men with a 10 point margin. Harris has 97% of the Democratic vote share, 0% for Trump. While Trump has only 89% of the Republican vote share while Harris has 5% of Republicans defecting to her. Another shocking aspect of this poll is Harris doing better with voters 55 and up (51%-39% in favor of Harris) when compared to voters 18-34 (46%-44% in favor of Harris) and voters 35-55 (50%-42% in favor of Trump). Harris leads with women voters 56% to 36%. Trump still holds onto Men (52% to 38%), Evangelicals (73% to 20%), and rural voters (55% to 35%), and those living in towns (49% to 40%). Harris carries those living in cities (61% to 33%) and the suburbs (59% to 36%). Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%. Even if all the "Other", "someone else", and "didn't want to say" move 100% to Trump, it would still be an under-performance of his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even adding the Kennedy voters to that number would still be an under-performance for Trump.
小蚕豆花 发表于 2024-11-03 01:42 https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/ Harris leads in Ann Selzer's final Iowa poll by 3 points. Selzer is one of the most accurate pollsters in the country. Selzer's previous poll in September showed Turmp up by 4 points, meaning a flip of 7 points. In 2020 Selzer was the outlier saying that Trump was up 7% when other pollsters were saying it was tied or even showed Biden leading. Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8.2%. Political junkies were keeping their eyes peeled for this poll, saying that if Trump was up anywhere from 1-4% it would be a Harris over-performance. Results of the poll: Harris 47% Trump 44% Kennedy 3% Not sure 3% Don't want to say 2% Someone else 1% Most shockingly with this poll, Harris leads senior voters. Senior men prefer Harris by 47% to 45%, while senior women prefer Harris by a whopping 2-1 margin of 63% to 28%. Independent women choose Harris by a 28 point margin while Trump has a smaller majority with Independent men with a 10 point margin. Harris has 97% of the Democratic vote share, 0% for Trump. While Trump has only 89% of the Republican vote share while Harris has 5% of Republicans defecting to her. Another shocking aspect of this poll is Harris doing better with voters 55 and up (51%-39% in favor of Harris) when compared to voters 18-34 (46%-44% in favor of Harris) and voters 35-55 (50%-42% in favor of Trump). Harris leads with women voters 56% to 36%. Trump still holds onto Men (52% to 38%), Evangelicals (73% to 20%), and rural voters (55% to 35%), and those living in towns (49% to 40%). Harris carries those living in cities (61% to 33%) and the suburbs (59% to 36%). Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%. Even if all the "Other", "someone else", and "didn't want to say" move 100% to Trump, it would still be an under-performance of his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even adding the Kennedy voters to that number would still be an under-performance for Trump.
New York Times Siena College final poll: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html AZ 确实很难赢(也是川普唯一领先的州)，其它都有一拼。NC和NV似乎比蓝墙还乐观一点，我个人不太同意，我觉得MI和WI是最容易的，NC NV和PA难度相当。
床破 发表于 2024-11-03 03:38 Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%. 可以看到川粉的主要组成部分，不少川粉看不懂这句话吧
床破 发表于 2024-11-03 03:38 Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%. 可以看到川粉的主要组成部分，不少川粉看不懂这句话吧
except if you look at who is conducting the polls, there are lots of left-leaning organizations that money cannot buy! for an example PA the same poll in 2016 puts Clinton ahead +2.8% in 2016 she lost PA, Biden in 2020 +4.3% ahead but Biden won only by 1.2% and it is not a good thing the same poll is showing T is ahead. Wake up and go vote everyone!
Mediterranean 发表于 2024-11-03 08:42 New York Times Siena College final poll: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html AZ 确实很难赢(也是川普唯一领先的州)，其它都有一拼。NC和NV似乎比蓝墙还乐观一点，我个人不太同意，我觉得MI和WI是最容易的，NC NV和PA难度相当。
yomayo131323 发表于 2024-11-04 02:16 except if you look at who is conducting the polls, there are lots of left-leaning organizations that money cannot buy! for an example PA the same poll in 2016 puts Clinton ahead +2.8% in 2016 she lost PA, Biden in 2020 +4.3% ahead but Biden won only by 1.2% and it is not a good thing the same poll is showing T is ahead. Wake up and go vote everyone!
Another shocking aspect of this poll is Harris doing better with voters 55 and up (51%-39% in favor of Harris) when compared to voters 18-34 (46%-44% in favor of Harris) and voters 35-55 (50%-42% in favor of Trump). Harris leads with women voters 56% to 36%. Trump still holds onto Men (52% to 38%), Evangelicals (73% to 20%), and rural voters (55% to 35%), and those living in towns (49% to 40%). Harris carries those living in cities (61% to 33%) and the suburbs (59% to 36%). Trump leads voters without college degrees by 51% to 39% while Harris leads amongst college degree-holders 61% to 31%. Even if all the "Other", "someone else", and "didn't want to say" move 100% to Trump, it would still be an under-performance of his 2016 and 2020 numbers. Even adding the Kennedy voters to that number would still be an under-performance for Trump.
可以看到川粉的主要组成部分，不少川粉看不懂这句话吧
狂热的神经质的川粉挺多的
拭目以待
今天大选最重要的新闻无疑是Ann Selzer Poll结果，这个结果今天像一个重磅炸弹，引起了巨大反响。Ann Selzer是个个体pollster（民调专家），不依赖于机构。她被誉为是美国大选poll中最准确的。她不做全国poll，每次大选前只做一个poll，只做Iowa（爱荷华）一个州的poll。她是PhD，也做过538节目。
为什么Iowa一个poll很重要呢？Iowa曾经是美国最有大选风向标性的摆动州，因此在2024年大选前也是每次大选启动的标志（Iowa caucuses）。2008年她的poll显示Obama将在Iowa caucuses取得压倒性胜利。2012年大选她的poll显示Obama：Romney在Iowa为49: 45%，最终Obama在大选中在Iowa领先了Romney 5.8%。四年后的2016年11月大选前，Ann Selzer Poll显示Trump在Iowa领先7%，最终Trump领先了Hillary 9.4%。她成为了当年唯一一个poll结果正确的pollster。2020年，她的poll显示Trump领先Biden 7%，最终结果Trump领先8.2%。所以，几乎Ann Selzer每次poll都是正确的，都在误差范围内，而且她的结果与全国民意（尤其是中西部民意）有十分好的相关性。
几小时前刚刚公布的Ann Selzer poll显示Harris：Trump为47: 44%，领先了3个百分点。这个消息震动了美国媒体。这是因为，首先，Ann Selzer poll非常精确，因为她是Iowa本地人，她只poll Iowa。第二，已经有几次，Ann Selzer力排众议，推出了一个和他人不同的结果，最终被验证正确。但更重要的是，这说明其他pollster通过polling和建模预测的三个tipping point states（最关键摆动州）PA/WI/MI可能是错的，这可能又成了2016年大选一样，那一年几乎所有pollster都认为FL/OH/IA/NC是tipping point states，导致了Hillary竞选几乎没有去最终真正决定大选的PA/WI/MI竞选。而今天这一结果如果像原来一样可信，那么它说明今年可能是2008年的情况，而其他pollster通过增加R选民比重来建模的方法是错误的（http://t.cn/A6ninzCn）。Iowa是一个白人比例很高的州，占总人口88%。这个poll显示Harris在65岁以上白人女性中领先Trump 40%。这说明了Dobbs Decision（废除堕胎权）这种反常识的事情非常引起普通女性选民反感，包括很多老年保守女性。
早投结果 55%女性 45%男性
跟多次Polls 一样，女性大多投哈里斯
说明川普比其他共和党议员更讨人厌啊！很难理解吗？
Harris 未必赢Iowa，这个poll还有Kennedy的变数，但就算两者打平，也个趋势也很值得考虑。
民调需要“力排众议”“推出”？
我觉得Harris赢Iowa可能性很大啊。早投数据现在共和党只领先民主党1%，如果算上和党里面投哈里斯的，很有可能就赢了。
这个poll不是出口民调，跟早投数据没法结合分析
支持Kennedy的也有很多女性选民，所以不会是打平的。
是的，主要参考价值是中西部老白男、老白女的变化，结合中期选举结果，可能blue wall民主党的领先还蛮大的，并不像想象中的那样toss up。甚至可能这次战场州就不是那几个。
我是两个数据结合起来一起看的。这个民调是调查的所有人，而早投数据是现在已经投票过的人的数据。联系起来看我觉得哈里斯拿下Iowa的可能性挺大的。
公平的说，换个体面一点的候选人，比如Pence，GOP躺赢。
maga已经自成一派，疯狂了。传统的共和党人都抛弃它们了。但是没有想到居然那么多华人川粉不离不弃，
他们哪里是对川普不离不弃啊，他们是因为讨厌美国所以选川普啊！
做事情要设身处地替别人想。拜登任期通胀很高，特别是房价飙升，再加上利率，18-24，甚至25-34年龄段的受影响是巨大的，极其愤怒不满是有原因的。我们已经上车的甚至拿着几套房子的当然不在乎。老川要不是太傻，整天扯什么50%关税，取消收入税用关税替代这些傻逼政策，选他的人更多（为什么哈里斯在大学程度以上支持率高，老川毁灭性的经济政策主张是很大原因）。拜登执政4年虽然大方向对，毕竟很多人受影响经济状况比4年前差多了。买不了房就足够理由投老川，虽然老川上任也解决不了问题，但是人很多时候不是理性的。
我也在想这个房子的问题。马斯克不是在搞那种小房子，这种不知道有没有可能搞成？不然是一个供起问题，通胀下，更买不起房，就算贺给政策给首套房。
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/politics/harris-trump-times-siena-poll.html
AZ 确实很难赢(也是川普唯一领先的州)，其它都有一拼。NC和NV似乎比蓝墙还乐观一点，我个人不太同意，我觉得MI和WI是最容易的，NC NV和PA难度相当。
的确是，物价上涨，受到影响最大的是没有financial cushion的年轻人。减免学贷，universal preK，对于没有college degree的并没有多大共鸣。相反，trump 和elon表现出来的 patriarchy ，甚至是 misogyny, 很容易在精神上对他们有吸引力。
这次有一个组织Republican Against Trump, 里面都是Never Trumper 的共和党人。所以现在按等级党派来统计，对Harris 还少算了
读了大学的大多数投民主党，常识了
是这样的，共和党只有变回正常的党才能重新赢回选举
但是如果GOP还是被神棍绑架也很难说，这次如果不是川普出线而是GOP的其他人，难道就选GOP吗？那些失去堕胎权的红州女性不需要考虑了吗？以后GOP在高院的支持下搞全国心跳法案怎么办？
房租涨得没边了，小年轻租不起，很多被迫继续跟父母住一起。啃老。
咖喱粉对着一个虚幻的泡沫惊呼：好美啊！
一个poll五十万，一个州好多个，普京拼了，游艇都卖了给疮儿子买poll
来，上个你家自己的民调。
今年这些常规的POLL都会不准，因为投票人群多了，而且构成变了。
except if you look at who is conducting the polls, there are lots of left-leaning organizations that money cannot buy!
for an example PA the same poll in 2016 puts Clinton ahead +2.8% in 2016 she lost PA, Biden in 2020 +4.3% ahead but Biden won only by 1.2% and it is not a good thing the same poll is showing T is ahead.
Wake up and go vote everyone!
你这说的，有点靠谱，但不够彻底。 但TRUMP不会这么做的，他没有这个能力跟魄力，做不到，执行不了，而且无法弄出一队能人，跟着他一起做。
多次说过黄右是例外 读的书喂了狗了
trump 现在周围那几个人还不够能人？比败登卡马拉的DEI 草台班子强多了
听说mi的话，union workers不投女人，很多不会去投票，可能是有负面影响的。
那就是你说的那个poll不准呗
1
有高学历的黄川大多数学的是技术，没学美国高中和大学的必修基础课程，比如历史，宪法，科学这些。但他们的孩子学了这些课程就90%都反川普，让黄川痛心疾首。不会英文的黄川，那就是阴谋论和谣言圈的受害者了。好消息是，美国的教育让他们的孩子都有正常的观念。
对，历史上的PA的民意调查都是给民主党的数字总是比实际数据要高出几个点。
2016：Clinton +2.8% she lost it. 2022: Biden +4.3% he won by 1.2% 2024: Harris -0.3% ... 不是好消息
大家赶紧都去投票！！！
对 看板上很多回帖连宪法都不知道
加入美籍应该要求起码读宪法和federalist paper
Lowa。。。