赢不了，总有outlier出来造话题。同一天，另一个poll，川领先9。 今天还有poll说川哈Virginia打平呢。前几天也有poll说川NH领先呢。这种outlier不必认真。 关键自己要有脑子。 https://chismstrategies.com/final-surveys-2024/ Virginia has the most surprising result of the three states we surveyed. While there have been few surveys of the state, those we have seen have mostly shown Harris performing close to Biden’s 2020 numbers and Tim Kaine running significantly ahead of Harris. However, our survey tells a different story, with Harris up by .7% (45.2%-44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).
foxhunter 发表于 2024-11-02 21:40 赢不了，总有outlier出来造话题。同一天，另一个poll，川领先9。 今天还有poll说川哈Virginia打平呢。前几天也有poll说川NH领先呢。这种outlier不必认真。 关键自己要有脑子。 https://chismstrategies.com/final-surveys-2024/ Virginia has the most surprising result of the three states we surveyed. While there have been few surveys of the state, those we have seen have mostly shown Harris performing close to Biden’s 2020 numbers and Tim Kaine running significantly ahead of Harris. However, our survey tells a different story, with Harris up by .7% (45.2%-44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).
Selzer 在Iowa民调界是神一般的存在，最权威的，到你嘴里变成了outlier J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. 你说的那些野鸡maga poll，给她提鞋都不够
哈哈。如果哈里斯能赢Iowa, Trump就能赢Virginia了。看看另一个poll吧 Donald Trump grabs lead over Kamala Harris in IOWA - beats his 2016 and 2020 margin in the state. Trump: 53.2% (+10.5) Harris: 42.7% 2020: Trump+8.2 2016: Trump+9.4 Unlike some pollsters, Emerson has given us the crosstabs. They are as follows: SAMPLE: R36%/D32%/I32% 2020 VOTE: Trump+8 Emerson College | 11/1-2 | N=800LV
哈哈。如果哈里斯能赢Iowa, Trump就能赢Virginia了。看看另一个poll吧 Donald Trump grabs lead over Kamala Harris in IOWA - beats his 2016 and 2020 margin in the state. Trump: 53.2% (+10.5) Harris: 42.7% 2020: Trump+8.2 2016: Trump+9.4 Unlike some pollsters, Emerson has given us the crosstabs. They are as follows: SAMPLE: R36%/D32%/I32% 2020 VOTE: Trump+8 Emerson College | 11/1-2 | N=800LV wintergreen457 发表于 2024-11-02 22:23
Leaked recording of GA county election official Julie Adams, on possible post-Nov 5 plans: “Maybe we all find discrepancies & we file an immediate injunction. Maybe we go to the press. Maybe, when we’re certifying, we say we’re certifying under protest.” https://t.co/xYCQqMPhvd — Jonathan Blitzer (@JonathanBlitzer) November 2, 2024
Leaked recording of GA county election official Julie Adams, on possible post-Nov 5 plans: “Maybe we all find discrepancies & we file an immediate injunction. Maybe we go to the press. Maybe, when we’re certifying, we say we’re certifying under protest.” https://t.co/xYCQqMPhvd — Jonathan Blitzer (@JonathanBlitzer) November 2, 2024
US Election Legal Bet. click the link to get a bonus. I shared my bets. Some bets provide 20 times return. kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=dfd9e314-a6dd-4c3d-95be-c957b22897a1
会不会这样疯狂？让我们周二拭目以待
Selzer 在Iowa民调界是神一般的存在，最权威的，到你嘴里变成了outlier
J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996.
你说的那些野鸡maga poll，给她提鞋都不够
你是预测Trump大胜吧。告诉你一个好消息，今天kalshi 赌市已经翻转了，Harris 占优，所以是你们赶紧买进trump的好时机，买一块得两块，前些天连一块五都得不到。发财的机会来了，这个网站美国人可以买。
也刚听说赌局翻了，不知道是不是普通现象 。
Donald Trump grabs lead over Kamala Harris in IOWA - beats his 2016 and 2020 margin in the state.
Trump: 53.2% (+10.5) Harris: 42.7%
2020: Trump+8.2 2016: Trump+9.4
Unlike some pollsters, Emerson has given us the crosstabs. They are as follows:
SAMPLE: R36%/D32%/I32% 2020 VOTE: Trump+8
Emerson College | 11/1-2 | N=800LV
我不做预测。只是反对不理智的hyper feeling-----反对看到一个点，就一惊一乍的下结论。
我担心270又要闹好久。。。
你引用的这个pollster在Iowa不能跟selzer poll比。2016年selzer poll出来以后希拉里才发现后院起火了。当然前提是这次她不会拿自己多年的信誉冒险而参杂其他的东西
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https://x.com/jonathanblitzer/status/1852721337959371090
自己点，各州颜色会变。个人可以定制。lol
不要再数着票突然就漏水或停电, 停止公布计票，然后突然一方选票反败为胜。２０２０年那次太露怯了。
不给crosstabs的poll是没法评价的，她的poll和所有其他人都差的太多，很多人都认为不对。
怎么可能？看面相，哈里斯是没有总统相！
临近大选，连算命看相的都来了
都是些什么人在讨论政治啊
click the link to get a bonus.
I shared my bets. Some bets provide 20 times return.
kalshi.com/sign-up/?referral=dfd9e314-a6dd-4c3d-95be-c957b22897a1
隔壁帖子笑死了😂楼主也不说自己在不在美国，整个就是要你猜～
Rally是早就定好的行程，估计很难改变行程，但是Iowa确实是个意外之喜。 其实现在看早投数据就能看出点端倪了，共和党仅仅领先1%。
它说多错多，越说越错。anyway，现在大家都知道lowa 很maga了
四年过去了还咬着曲线不放，新闻除了大妓院没看过其他的吧？连你川皇女儿都公开发声明说没证据显示作弊，被抓的也全是你们鼬党
很多川粉目不识丁的
你在说啥