What caused the swing in Trump’s favor on Polymarket. Some social media users noted the movement came as one anonymous user by the name “Fredi9999” upped his bets on a Trump win to over $4 million. Polymarket does not limit individual bettors like PredictIt ($850 limit) or Kalshi ($25,000) as it operates as an “offshore” book and does not face the same federal regulations. So, it’s possible that Trump’s odds shifted on Polymarket as it was the result of buying activity from one or a handful of big-ticket bettors rather than a material shift in the election landscape.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on blockchain technology, where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events. It allows people to trade on topics such as politics, sports, financial markets, and more. Instead of traditional betting, users buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of an event happening. The market prices reflect the collective belief of participants in the probability of an event occurring. Polymarket operates using cryptocurrency and is known for offering markets on a wide range of current events. Since it’s blockchain-based, it emphasizes transparency and security in its transactions.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, has shown fluctuating results for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump recently gaining a lead over Kamala Harris. As of early October, Trump holds a slight edge, with around 51% of bettors favoring him over Harris at 48-49%. This contrasts with some traditional betting trackers, where Harris still has a marginal lead. However, the gap on Polymarket has shifted, especially after significant campaign events like Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, which boosted his standing  . These prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than polls due to the financial stakes involved, but they are not infallible. For example, Harris continues to lead in certain swing states like Nevada and Michigan, while Trump has pulled ahead in others, such as Pennsylvania and Georgia . While Polymarket reflects real-time sentiment, it’s essential to compare it with broader data, as it only represents a subset of the electorate—those betting in cryptocurrency markets.
现在这种民调接近甚至落后的就更不要谈了
peter thiel的网站 有人花了4米买了trump的赢率
What caused the swing in Trump’s favor on Polymarket. Some social media users noted the movement came as one anonymous user by the name “Fredi9999” upped his bets on a Trump win to over $4 million. Polymarket does not limit individual bettors like PredictIt ($850 limit) or Kalshi ($25,000) as it operates as an “offshore” book and does not face the same federal regulations. So, it’s possible that Trump’s odds shifted on Polymarket as it was the result of buying activity from one or a handful of big-ticket bettors rather than a material shift in the election landscape.
这和民调没关系，这是JD Vance金主开的赌盘而已，基本上都是川粉在玩
其他预测机构都是预测Harris大胜
确实未必相关。 顶多表明投机者的民调。
川教主2020呼声比今年高多了，然而呢？
贼喊捉贼的川教主手段来说，今年的选举确实严格监督下，是监督那些被川教主鼓动的相信选举是可以舞弊的人。人家振臂一呼就可以发动JAN 6暴动，啥事情做不出来
用大钱砸出这么个名调，事后的借口又有了？
Anyway，川教主能回归，美国就真的没有希望了。 这个代表的不是正常的共和党跟正常的右派
安拉，静待HARRIS上位吧，不是HARRIS很牛，而是她的对手是太臭的TRUMP
又在造谣了，有多少非法移民选民主党的例子你可以摆出来看看，川粉选票造假进监狱的案例我倒是见过好多个
不然加州纽森为何不让查voter ID?
她的文化教育水平比川普高太多了，她当公务员为人民办的事儿也是川普1万倍。川普除了脑子蠢嘴巴大，还不如我邻居的小舅子呢
加州还查个p的id，你觉得加州还能翻红？ 德州红是德州查id了？
那我问你，没有投票资格你如何拿到选票？
lol加州这种深蓝州，左棍之首，白左大本营，有作弊的必要么？ 另，加州注册选民的时候填表是要驾照号和ssn的，不在选民名单上拿不到选票的。可以投票日现场注册，也是要驾照号和ssn，但当场注册投的票叫conditional ballot，驾照号和ssn验证不通过是不会被count的。网上讲的好像谁进投票站都能投票一样，很好奇今年会不会爆出红州maga组队来加州投假票闯关被抓。
不是为了作弊，为什么不让查voter ID?
大伙不看YouTube吗？ 不看YouTube评论吗？ 上面都是批评Harris的。 作为家长， 我不支持学校拥有决定孩子变性的权利。疯了吧这个社会。 孩子不是泥巴，想捏成啥就捏成啥。
注册为选民即可，加州又不查投票资格