What caused the swing in Trump’s favor on Polymarket. Some social media users noted the movement came as one anonymous user by the name “Fredi9999” upped his bets on a Trump win to over $4 million. Polymarket does not limit individual bettors like PredictIt ($850 limit) or Kalshi ($25,000) as it operates as an “offshore” book and does not face the same federal regulations. So, it’s possible that Trump’s odds shifted on Polymarket as it was the result of buying activity from one or a handful of big-ticket bettors rather than a material shift in the election landscape.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform built on blockchain technology, where users can bet on the outcomes of real-world events. It allows people to trade on topics such as politics, sports, financial markets, and more. Instead of traditional betting, users buy and sell shares based on the likelihood of an event happening. The market prices reflect the collective belief of participants in the probability of an event occurring. Polymarket operates using cryptocurrency and is known for offering markets on a wide range of current events. Since it’s blockchain-based, it emphasizes transparency and security in its transactions.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, has shown fluctuating results for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump recently gaining a lead over Kamala Harris. As of early October, Trump holds a slight edge, with around 51% of bettors favoring him over Harris at 48-49%. This contrasts with some traditional betting trackers, where Harris still has a marginal lead. However, the gap on Polymarket has shifted, especially after significant campaign events like Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, which boosted his standing  . These prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than polls due to the financial stakes involved, but they are not infallible. For example, Harris continues to lead in certain swing states like Nevada and Michigan, while Trump has pulled ahead in others, such as Pennsylvania and Georgia . While Polymarket reflects real-time sentiment, it’s essential to compare it with broader data, as it only represents a subset of the electorate—those betting in cryptocurrency markets.
现在这种民调接近甚至落后的就更不要谈了
peter thiel的网站 有人花了4米买了trump的赢率
What caused the swing in Trump’s favor on Polymarket. Some social media users noted the movement came as one anonymous user by the name “Fredi9999” upped his bets on a Trump win to over $4 million. Polymarket does not limit individual bettors like PredictIt ($850 limit) or Kalshi ($25,000) as it operates as an “offshore” book and does not face the same federal regulations. So, it’s possible that Trump’s odds shifted on Polymarket as it was the result of buying activity from one or a handful of big-ticket bettors rather than a material shift in the election landscape.
这和民调没关系，这是JD Vance金主开的赌盘而已，基本上都是川粉在玩
其他预测机构都是预测Harris大胜
确实未必相关。 顶多表明投机者的民调。
川教主2020呼声比今年高多了，然而呢？
贼喊捉贼的川教主手段来说，今年的选举确实严格监督下，是监督那些被川教主鼓动的相信选举是可以舞弊的人。人家振臂一呼就可以发动JAN 6暴动，啥事情做不出来
用大钱砸出这么个名调，事后的借口又有了？
Anyway，川教主能回归，美国就真的没有希望了。 这个代表的不是正常的共和党跟正常的右派
安拉，静待HARRIS上位吧，不是HARRIS很牛，而是她的对手是太臭的TRUMP