Jon Faust, who served until earlier this year as a senior adviser to Powell. “I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.” the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry
“I don’t think we’re in a spot that really shouts out for a pre-emptive 50,” said Faust. “But my preference would be slightly toward starting with 50. And I still think there’s a reasonable chance that the FOMC might get there as well.”
the Fed could manage concerns about spooking investors with a larger cut by providing “a lot of language around it that makes it not scary.” He added, “It wouldn’t need to be a sign of worry
50 是经济不好要跌吧
当然了, 不过大家都预计 0.25 阿。
仔细阅读一楼的帖子。
不过联想中国各种经济坏消息, 我突然有种不好的预感。
尽量避开3/6/9/12第3个周五
只要蒙对1-2次,十年bet SPY就铁板钉钉了
他们这样车轱辘话来回说,就是要让市场出现分歧。
分歧永远有。 否则就没人买, 没人卖。
股市积累的风险挺大的,如果业绩不兑现,下行风险挺大
得到0.5这个度
1)左青龙,右白虎
2)前朱雀,后玄武
就可以了
股市没有确定性, 不要随便否定, 不要随便肯定, 都有可能。
不过 all in 3x 应该不是个好的策略, 除非 market 大跌 超过 50% 以上。
redfin 周五 涨了 20% 多, 地产股肯定起飞。
其实还有个小概率事件, Fed 减息,再减息, 结果 通胀又回来了, 只好加息, 结果失业率又回来了, 结果 Fed 就束手无策了。
其实这也是好多高人的看法, 否则 Fed 就有了灵丹妙药, 妙手回春了。
拭目以待吧。 市场总是在怀疑中前行。
refin 已经飞了好几轮了 :-). 手上股票均价5块多, 涨跌都不怕. 0.5 可能性不小, 可是core inflation 有点往回走的意思. 0.25 更稳妥. 经过2022年, 我觉得股票跌到它该去的位置太难了, 那么多突发事件加升息都没把股票砸下来. 要不真来个大事大跌(几率不高), 要不就几个版块轮着涨跌, 软着陆.
我也觉得这不是好事
这个靠谱!
核心 CPI 还是 3.2%,没降啊。估计利率降不了多久,通胀就要反弹了。
不衰退根本压不住通胀,因为市场里的钱太多了。不爆几个雷,通胀下不来。
华尔街早知道要0.5了,周五布局,韭菜周末才知道
https://www.atlantafed.org/cenfis/market-probability-tracker
嗯, 这个靠谱。
道理很简单,因为加息多少这是大资本内部就能拿到的信息(as opposed to events like 疫情什么时候能控制)所以加息预期更可能是大资本得利