未必， Tom Lee 继续看牛，尤其看好小盘股 This strategist is predicting a big rally after the Fed Decision Thomas Lee, the usually optimistic co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, has been more right than wrong this year. Heading into 2024, he forecast another strong year for the stock market, though he anticipated a pullback around February and March and that gains would be led by small caps. So far, there's been another strong year for the stock market - that's a much better call than his peers at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, for instance - albeit with the rotation to small caps IWM only coming over the last month, and the correction coming later than Lee anticipated. Now Lee says that the market will make another rally after the Federal Reserve decision - with a potential gain of 4% to 5%, or even more. "The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp (1 cut). A possibility of more than that is not necessary," says Lee. "And while bond markets have priced in 100% probability of this, equity investors likely will not be convinced until the Fed affirms this as such." Lee notes that the median five-day return for the S&P 500 index SPX over the last six decisions was +2%. He says this gain will be unusually strong because the Federal Open Market Committee has yet to reflect the "super soft" May consumer price inflation index numbers or what he called the astonishingly soft June CPI figures. With the labor market and general business activity slowing, that means there will be softer future inflation as well, Lee says. Heading into the decision, there's been a "painful" 5% correction in the S&P 500 and 10% in the Nasdaq 100, while the small-cap Russell 2000 has been flat. But over the last 24 months, when stocks are down heading into the FOMC rate decision, they rallied in four of the five times outside of the 2022 hike cycle. The Russell 2000, he adds, had traded at least 1% higher or 1% lower in 11 of the last 12 sessions before Tuesday. That's only happened 10 times since 1979, and each year they did - 1987, 1998, 2009, 2011 and 2020 - were clear "risk on" and "early cycle" years. Over one month, the signal has a win ratio of 90%, and it's 100% for 3, 6 and 12 months. Over 12 months, those gains averaged 51%. "Overall, we believe risk-on moment is coming. And this will be led by small-caps. The body of evidence is growing for a sizable move for small-caps over the next 8 weeks," he says.
huaren2018 发表于 2024-07-31 11:49 未必， Tom Lee 继续看牛，尤其看好小盘股 This strategist is predicting a big rally after the Fed Decision Thomas Lee, the usually optimistic co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, has been more right than wrong this year. Heading into 2024, he forecast another strong year for the stock market, though he anticipated a pullback around February and March and that gains would be led by small caps. So far, there's been another strong year for the stock market - that's a much better call than his peers at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, for instance - albeit with the rotation to small caps IWM only coming over the last month, and the correction coming later than Lee anticipated. Now Lee says that the market will make another rally after the Federal Reserve decision - with a potential gain of 4% to 5%, or even more. "The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp (1 cut). A possibility of more than that is not necessary," says Lee. "And while bond markets have priced in 100% probability of this, equity investors likely will not be convinced until the Fed affirms this as such." Lee notes that the median five-day return for the S&P 500 index SPX over the last six decisions was +2%. He says this gain will be unusually strong because the Federal Open Market Committee has yet to reflect the "super soft" May consumer price inflation index numbers or what he called the astonishingly soft June CPI figures. With the labor market and general business activity slowing, that means there will be softer future inflation as well, Lee says. Heading into the decision, there's been a "painful" 5% correction in the S&P 500 and 10% in the Nasdaq 100, while the small-cap Russell 2000 has been flat. But over the last 24 months, when stocks are down heading into the FOMC rate decision, they rallied in four of the five times outside of the 2022 hike cycle. The Russell 2000, he adds, had traded at least 1% higher or 1% lower in 11 of the last 12 sessions before Tuesday. That's only happened 10 times since 1979, and each year they did - 1987, 1998, 2009, 2011 and 2020 - were clear "risk on" and "early cycle" years. Over one month, the signal has a win ratio of 90%, and it's 100% for 3, 6 and 12 months. Over 12 months, those gains averaged 51%. "Overall, we believe risk-on moment is coming. And this will be led by small-caps. The body of evidence is growing for a sizable move for small-caps over the next 8 weeks," he says.
炒股还得经的起振
今日下午鲍爷又要和花街见面了
日本央行自2008年以后首次加息一个基点，日元反弹到3月以来高点
未必， Tom Lee 继续看牛，尤其看好小盘股 This strategist is predicting a big rally after the Fed Decision
Thomas Lee, the usually optimistic co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, has been more right than wrong this year.
Heading into 2024, he forecast another strong year for the stock market, though he anticipated a pullback around February and March and that gains would be led by small caps.
So far, there's been another strong year for the stock market - that's a much better call than his peers at JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, for instance - albeit with the rotation to small caps IWM only coming over the last month, and the correction coming later than Lee anticipated.
Now Lee says that the market will make another rally after the Federal Reserve decision - with a potential gain of 4% to 5%, or even more.
"The key premise is the Fed is likely to commit to a September rate cut of at least 25bp (1 cut). A possibility of more than that is not necessary," says Lee. "And while bond markets have priced in 100% probability of this, equity investors likely will not be convinced until the Fed affirms this as such."
Lee notes that the median five-day return for the S&P 500 index SPX over the last six decisions was +2%. He says this gain will be unusually strong because the Federal Open Market Committee has yet to reflect the "super soft" May consumer price inflation index numbers or what he called the astonishingly soft June CPI figures. With the labor market and general business activity slowing, that means there will be softer future inflation as well, Lee says.
Heading into the decision, there's been a "painful" 5% correction in the S&P 500 and 10% in the Nasdaq 100, while the small-cap Russell 2000 has been flat. But over the last 24 months, when stocks are down heading into the FOMC rate decision, they rallied in four of the five times outside of the 2022 hike cycle.
The Russell 2000, he adds, had traded at least 1% higher or 1% lower in 11 of the last 12 sessions before Tuesday. That's only happened 10 times since 1979, and each year they did - 1987, 1998, 2009, 2011 and 2020 - were clear "risk on" and "early cycle" years.
Over one month, the signal has a win ratio of 90%, and it's 100% for 3, 6 and 12 months. Over 12 months, those gains averaged 51%.
"Overall, we believe risk-on moment is coming. And this will be led by small-caps. The body of evidence is growing for a sizable move for small-caps over the next 8 weeks," he says.
这是空多双杀，让股票保持良性发展
Tom Lee 是永牛派。
华尔街多头和空头之间内斗的表现，看来他们还没有统一思想