看到班上讨论的热烈，忍不住问了一下ChatGPT，居然跟姐们们的结论相似！！吓到了。。 Summary: To retire comfortably in the Bay Area at mid-forties with an annual expense of $120,000, you would need approximately $11.4 million. This estimate assumes a 3% inflation rate and a 4% safe withdrawal rate, ensuring your financial stability throughout your retirement. If your actual annual expenses are higher or lower, or if your expected inflation rate or withdrawal rate differs, you will need to adjust these calculations accordingly.
Retiring in your mid-forties in the Bay Area requires substantial financial planning due to the high cost of living and the need for a long-term financial strategy to ensure sustainability. Here’s a step-by-step approach to estimate the necessary net worth: Key Considerations: Annual Living Expenses: Determine your annual living expenses, considering housing, healthcare, food, transportation, and other personal expenses. Retirement Horizon: Estimate the number of years you will be in retirement. For someone retiring at 45 and living until 90, this would be 45 years. Inflation: Account for inflation to ensure your purchasing power remains the same over time. A common assumption is an average annual inflation rate of 3%. Withdrawal Rate: The safe withdrawal rate is typically 4%, which means you withdraw 4% of your retirement savings annually. Estimation Steps: Estimate Annual Living Expenses: For a comfortable lifestyle in the Bay Area, let's assume annual living expenses of $120,000. Adjust for Inflation: Calculate the future value of these annual expenses considering inflation over the retirement period. Calculate Required Net Worth: Use the 4% withdrawal rate to determine the necessary net worth to sustain these expenses. Calculation: Future Value of Annual Expenses: Future Value=Present Value×(1+Inflation Rate)Number of Years\text{Future Value} = \text{Present Value} \times (1 + \text{Inflation Rate})^{\text{Number of Years}}Future Value=Present Value×(1+Inflation Rate)Number of Years Assuming: Present Value (Annual Living Expenses) = $120,000 Inflation Rate = 3% (0.03) Number of Years = 45 Required Net Worth Using 4% Withdrawal Rate: Required Net Worth=Future Annual Expenses0.04\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{\text{Future Annual Expenses}}{0.04}Required Net Worth=0.04Future Annual Expenses Step-by-Step Calculation: Calculate Future Annual Expenses: Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1+0.03)45\text{Future Annual Expenses} = 120,000 \times (1 + 0.03)^{45}Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1+0.03)45 Calculate Required Net Worth: Required Net Worth=Future Annual Expenses0.04\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{\text{Future Annual Expenses}}{0.04}Required Net Worth=0.04Future Annual Expenses Let's break this down manually for accuracy: Example Calculation: Future Annual Expenses: Using the compound interest formula: Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1.03)45\text{Future Annual Expenses} = 120,000 \times (1.03)^{45}Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1.03)45 Approximation: Future Annual Expenses≈120,000×3.80=456,000\text{Future Annual Expenses} \approx 120,000 \times 3.80 = 456,000Future Annual Expenses≈120,000×3.80=456,000 Required Net Worth: Required Net Worth=456,0000.04=11,400,000\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{456,000}{0.04} = 11,400,000Required Net Worth=0.04456,000=11,400,000
trymeagain 发表于 2024-06-19 02:25 看到班上讨论的热烈，忍不住问了一下ChatGPT，居然跟姐们们的结论相似！！吓到了。。 Summary: To retire comfortably in the Bay Area at mid-forties with an annual expense of $120,000, you would need approximately $11.4 million. This estimate assumes a 3% inflation rate and a 4% safe withdrawal rate, ensuring your financial stability throughout your retirement. If your actual annual expenses are higher or lower, or if your expected inflation rate or withdrawal rate differs, you will need to adjust these calculations accordingly.
Retiring in your mid-forties in the Bay Area requires substantial financial planning due to the high cost of living and the need for a long-term financial strategy to ensure sustainability. Here’s a step-by-step approach to estimate the necessary net worth: Key Considerations: Annual Living Expenses: Determine your annual living expenses, considering housing, healthcare, food, transportation, and other personal expenses. Retirement Horizon: Estimate the number of years you will be in retirement. For someone retiring at 45 and living until 90, this would be 45 years. Inflation: Account for inflation to ensure your purchasing power remains the same over time. A common assumption is an average annual inflation rate of 3%. Withdrawal Rate: The safe withdrawal rate is typically 4%, which means you withdraw 4% of your retirement savings annually. Estimation Steps: Estimate Annual Living Expenses: For a comfortable lifestyle in the Bay Area, let's assume annual living expenses of $120,000. Adjust for Inflation: Calculate the future value of these annual expenses considering inflation over the retirement period. Calculate Required Net Worth: Use the 4% withdrawal rate to determine the necessary net worth to sustain these expenses. Calculation: Future Value of Annual Expenses: Future Value=Present Value×(1+Inflation Rate)Number of Years\text{Future Value} = \text{Present Value} \times (1 + \text{Inflation Rate})^{\text{Number of Years}}Future Value=Present Value×(1+Inflation Rate)Number of Years Assuming: Present Value (Annual Living Expenses) = $120,000 Inflation Rate = 3% (0.03) Number of Years = 45 Required Net Worth Using 4% Withdrawal Rate: Required Net Worth=Future Annual Expenses0.04\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{\text{Future Annual Expenses}}{0.04}Required Net Worth=0.04Future Annual Expenses Step-by-Step Calculation: Calculate Future Annual Expenses: Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1+0.03)45\text{Future Annual Expenses} = 120,000 \times (1 + 0.03)^{45}Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1+0.03)45 Calculate Required Net Worth: Required Net Worth=Future Annual Expenses0.04\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{\text{Future Annual Expenses}}{0.04}Required Net Worth=0.04Future Annual Expenses Let's break this down manually for accuracy: Example Calculation: Future Annual Expenses: Using the compound interest formula: Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1.03)45\text{Future Annual Expenses} = 120,000 \times (1.03)^{45}Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1.03)45 Approximation: Future Annual Expenses≈120,000×3.80=456,000\text{Future Annual Expenses} \approx 120,000 \times 3.80 = 456,000Future Annual Expenses≈120,000×3.80=456,000 Required Net Worth: Required Net Worth=456,0000.04=11,400,000\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{456,000}{0.04} = 11,400,000Required Net Worth=0.04456,000=11,400,000
我也问了，你的chatgpt数学太差了，我问了，人家啥啥都用数学公式解释了 Given the updated scenario: Annual withdrawal amount (first year): $120,000 Inflation rate: 3% Number of years in retirement: 40 Return rate during retirement: 7% Social Security income: $3,000 per month ($36,000 per year), which also increases with inflation. 一大堆数学公式之后 So, you would need approximately $3,312,400 saved before retirement to withdraw $120,000 per year, adjusted for 3% inflation, considering $3,000 per month in Social Security income that also adjusts for inflation over a 40-year retirement period.
maodouchong 发表于 2024-06-19 19:19 我也问了，你的chatgpt数学太差了，我问了，人家啥啥都用数学公式解释了 To determine how much you need to save before you can retire, given that you need $120,000 per year, we need to consider several factors: Expected rate of return on investments during retirement.Inflation rate (if we want to account for inflation).Number of years you expect to live in retirement. A common method to estimate the required retirement savings is using the 4% rule. The 4% rule suggests that you can withdraw 4% of your retirement savings annually without running out of money for at least 30 years. This implies that your savings should be 25 times your annual withdrawal amount. Calculation using the 4% rule Required savings=Annual withdrawal0.04\text{Required savings} = \frac{\text{Annual withdrawal}}{0.04} Required savings=0.04Annual withdrawal Given an annual withdrawal of $120,000: Required savings=120,0000.04=3,000,000\text{Required savings} = \frac{120,000}{0.04} = 3,000,000 Required savings=0.04120,000=3,000,000 Additional considerations Expected rate of return and inflation: If you have specific expectations for the rate of return on your investments and the inflation rate, a more tailored calculation might be appropriate. Life expectancy: If you expect a different retirement period than 30 years, you may need to adjust the calculation. Other sources of income: Consider if you have other sources of retirement income, such as Social Security, pensions, or rental income. Example with a more detailed calculation Let''s assume the following: Expected rate of return during retirement: 5% annually Expected inflation rate: 2% annually Number of years in retirement: 30 years We can use the present value of annuity formula to calculate the required retirement savings: PV=PMT×1−(1+r)−nrPV = PMT \times \frac{1 - (1 + r)^{-n}}{r} PV=PMT×r1−(1+r)−n Where: PVPVPV is the present value (initial savings needed). PMTPMTPMT is the annual withdrawal amount ($120,000). rrr is the real rate of return (rate of return - inflation rate). nnn is the number of years. The real rate of return rrr = 5% - 2% = 3% = 0.03. PV=120,000×1−(1+0.03)−300.03PV = 120,000 \times \frac{1 - (1 + 0.03)^{-30}}{0.03} PV=120,000×0.031−(1+0.03)−30 Let''s calculate this: PV=120,000×1−(1.03)−300.03PV = 120,000 \times \frac{1 - (1.03)^{-30}}{0.03} PV=120,000×0.031−(1.03)−30PV=120,000×1−0.4119860.03PV = 120,000 \times \frac{1 - 0.411986}{0.03} PV=120,000×0.031−0.411986PV=120,000×0.5880140.03PV = 120,000 \times \frac{0.588014}{0.03} PV=120,000×0.030.588014PV=120,000×19.60047PV = 120,000 \times 19.60047 PV=120,000×19.60047PV≈2,352,056PV \approx 2,352,056 PV≈2,352,056 So, under these assumptions, you would need approximately $2,352,056 saved before retirement to withdraw $120,000 per year for 30 years, accounting for a 3% real rate of return. Conclusion Depending on the assumptions you make about returns, inflation, and retirement length, the required savings can vary. The 4% rule provides a quick estimate of $3,000,000, while a more detailed calculation under specific assumptions might yield a different figure, such as $2,352,056 in the example above. Adjust your inputs according to your expectations and consult with a financial advisor to refine your retirement plan.
我的original的question是这样的： “how much net worth to retire at mid forties in bay area”
trymeagain 发表于 2024-06-19 19:50 我的original的question是这样的： “how much net worth to retire at mid forties in bay area”
我问了一样的问题，结果是 based on a conservative withdrawal rate of 3.5%, you would need around $3.5 to $4.5 million saved to retire comfortably in your mid-forties in the Bay Area. This estimate can vary significantly based on personal circumstances and lifestyle choices. Consulting with a financial advisor can provide a more tailored plan based on your specific situation and goals.
Summary: To retire comfortably in the Bay Area at mid-forties with an annual expense of $120,000, you would need approximately $11.4 million. This estimate assumes a 3% inflation rate and a 4% safe withdrawal rate, ensuring your financial stability throughout your retirement. If your actual annual expenses are higher or lower, or if your expected inflation rate or withdrawal rate differs, you will need to adjust these calculations accordingly.
Retiring in your mid-forties in the Bay Area requires substantial financial planning due to the high cost of living and the need for a long-term financial strategy to ensure sustainability. Here’s a step-by-step approach to estimate the necessary net worth: Key Considerations: Annual Living Expenses: Determine your annual living expenses, considering housing, healthcare, food, transportation, and other personal expenses. Retirement Horizon: Estimate the number of years you will be in retirement. For someone retiring at 45 and living until 90, this would be 45 years. Inflation: Account for inflation to ensure your purchasing power remains the same over time. A common assumption is an average annual inflation rate of 3%. Withdrawal Rate: The safe withdrawal rate is typically 4%, which means you withdraw 4% of your retirement savings annually. Estimation Steps: Estimate Annual Living Expenses: For a comfortable lifestyle in the Bay Area, let's assume annual living expenses of $120,000. Adjust for Inflation: Calculate the future value of these annual expenses considering inflation over the retirement period. Calculate Required Net Worth: Use the 4% withdrawal rate to determine the necessary net worth to sustain these expenses. Calculation: Future Value of Annual Expenses: Future Value=Present Value×(1+Inflation Rate)Number of Years\text{Future Value} = \text{Present Value} \times (1 + \text{Inflation Rate})^{\text{Number of Years}}Future Value=Present Value×(1+Inflation Rate)Number of Years Assuming: Present Value (Annual Living Expenses) = $120,000 Inflation Rate = 3% (0.03) Number of Years = 45 Required Net Worth Using 4% Withdrawal Rate: Required Net Worth=Future Annual Expenses0.04\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{\text{Future Annual Expenses}}{0.04}Required Net Worth=0.04Future Annual Expenses Step-by-Step Calculation: Calculate Future Annual Expenses: Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1+0.03)45\text{Future Annual Expenses} = 120,000 \times (1 + 0.03)^{45}Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1+0.03)45 Calculate Required Net Worth: Required Net Worth=Future Annual Expenses0.04\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{\text{Future Annual Expenses}}{0.04}Required Net Worth=0.04Future Annual Expenses Let's break this down manually for accuracy: Example Calculation: Future Annual Expenses: Using the compound interest formula: Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1.03)45\text{Future Annual Expenses} = 120,000 \times (1.03)^{45}Future Annual Expenses=120,000×(1.03)45 Approximation: Future Annual Expenses≈120,000×3.80=456,000\text{Future Annual Expenses} \approx 120,000 \times 3.80 = 456,000Future Annual Expenses≈120,000×3.80=456,000 Required Net Worth: Required Net Worth=456,0000.04=11,400,000\text{Required Net Worth} = \frac{456,000}{0.04} = 11,400,000Required Net Worth=0.04456,000=11,400,000
一般天天幻想攒多少多少钱就可以躺平退休的人， 不会有到达这个点这个命
达到这个点的人， 往往是没有打算提前退休， 不想躺平的人
除去天上砸钱掉你脑袋那种极低概率的事情，就是性格决定命运
有道理。。。老黄都还没退休呢。
哪来的11.4MM， 哪个是按照一年开销456，000。
我周围这个身家的大部分都提前退休了。提前退休的意思是65之前。 一般不想退休还能不退休的，身家得加起码1个零。
它是按照每年的每年3%的通膨率，然后指数45年，到最后就是3.8了。就是说现在一年花120000，45年后一年就要花450000.
这个GPT回答显得好蠢啊，不算资产投资增值，但也不算前边儿几十年提款对本金的损耗，speechless了
嗯，当干事儿已经变成生命意义一部分的时候，确实有可能自然而然就过了资产那根线不少了。
這個Parameter 也太。。。
你还需要让chatgpt考虑到income tax和其他收入tax的情况。实际数字还要更高
而且一个月10,000的花费，看起来房子是全款没房贷了
一般非常保守的假设就是asset 4%的回报率，然后4%的withdraw。
chatgpt算的是一共需要多少钱，假设没有投资，就拿那些钱就放在银行里不动。
退休那么早干嘛 我们司很多到了60+还不想退休的
中年退休的充分必要条件，就一条
1）每年存下$100,000，以上
理由，
1）如果符合条件，那么积蓄只会增加，不会减少
2）每年存下10万，虽然不多，但日积月累，还是很安全的
3）目标单一，而且很量化，所以可以专心致志，非常容易实现
4）达不到，说明没到退休的时候
那也算得不对啊，头44年每年取出来的都少于资产增长的4%部分，只有最后一年是相等的，那为啥需要在45年一开始的时候就要有11.4M啊？而且最后一年过完了，人死了还剩11.4M本金，这是再也花不掉的浪费部分啊。总之，GPT在这个回答上完全不及格。
同感，哈哈
不是每个人都能幸运的工作到60几，有被迫失业被迫退休呀
我的original的question是这样的： “how much net worth to retire at mid forties in bay area”
我问了一样的问题，结果是 based on a conservative withdrawal rate of 3.5%, you would need around $3.5 to $4.5 million saved to retire comfortably in your mid-forties in the Bay Area. This estimate can vary significantly based on personal circumstances and lifestyle choices. Consulting with a financial advisor can provide a more tailored plan based on your specific situation and goals.
你的意思是被动收入每年还能存下10万块？那么到死的时候钱不是越来越多吗？留下几米贡献国家？
对呀
否则退不了
其实这个目标不难，只是一开始大家可能觉得难，是一种思维惯性
比如，你一直往这个方向努力着，发现如果没有工资的话，只能存$10,000，那么，你已经离达到目标不远了
但这个时候，你还不能退休，要继续努力
在这个过程中，产生的多巴胺，不比谈恋爱少，所以很可能，你根本就没有退休的愿望了
120k, 如果没有earned income，passive income夫妻两个免税额有 94050，所以交不了啥税, 后面tax bracket 也就15%，所以税后有116107$
不是被动收入（这是对没学历的大妈大爷说的）
有文化的讲究主动收入
被动收入也要主动化
说的4%回报率是去除了假设的3%的通货膨胀率。名义的回报率实际是7%。所以Asset的总值实际是一直在增加的。