How interest rates impact stock prices Corporate profits are closely tied to interest rate movements. Many companies borrow for the short term with debt that resets each quarter. The interest on these loans is based on a rate index that mimics changes set by the Federal Reserve using the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate on short-term interbank loans and is typically what is being referred to when folks talk about "rate cuts." As a result, even the anticipation of a lower federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve can move other interest rates lower. This, in turn, helps boost general economic growth and corporate profits. 以上摘自： https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/how-interest-rates-impact-stock-prices
这是the list of interest cuts, comparing with spy history data, the conclusion is that your statement is wrong. There are times cuts associated with recessions and crisis, but recessions and crisis are the reasons for the cuts not the other way around. Recent Rate Cuts: 2023: The Fed raised rates consistently throughout 2022 and early 2023 to combat inflation but did not cut rates. (Note: The exact timing of any cuts in 2023 is hypothetical, as rates had not been cut by May 2023.) 2020: March 3, 2020: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, responding to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. March 15, 2020: The Fed cut the rate by another 1 percentage point to a range of 0% to 0.25%, in an emergency move to support the economy during the pandemic. 2019: July 31, 2019: The Fed cut the rate by 0.25 percentage points, marking the first cut since 2008. September 18, 2019: Another 0.25 percentage point cut. October 30, 2019: The Fed cut the rate by an additional 0.25 percentage points. Historical Rate Cuts: 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: September 18, 2007: The Fed cut the rate by 0.5 percentage points. October 31, 2007: Another 0.25 percentage point cut. December 11, 2007: The rate was cut by another 0.25 percentage points. January 22, 2008: Emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points. January 30, 2008: Another 0.5 percentage point cut. March 18, 2008: The rate was reduced by 0.75 percentage points. April 30, 2008: Another 0.25 percentage point cut. October 8, 2008: Coordinated global rate cut of 0.5 percentage points. October 29, 2008: The rate was cut by another 0.5 percentage points. December 16, 2008: The rate was brought down to a range of 0% to 0.25%. Early 2000s Recession: January 3, 2001: The Fed cut the rate by 0.5 percentage points. Throughout 2001, the rate was cut multiple times, ending the year at 1.75%. 1990-1991 Recession: The Fed cut rates several times between 1990 and 1992 to stimulate the economy. 1980s: Following the high-interest rates to combat inflation in the early 1980s, the Fed began cutting rates in the mid-1980s as inflation came under control and the economy needed support.
好像是历史上90%的降息在一年内股市崩盘。呼唤金融人士科普
降息不是一直是对股市有利的吗？因为存款利息低，不合算了。
不知道啊！股市历史上90%就是这样啊
从来都是在经济危机先开始后，Fed 才利用降息，刺激经济，股市复苏。所以是先有经济衰退（或者增长不足），才有降息。你这降息引起衰退的论点和常识相悖，请具体指出这 90% 是从哪里来的。下面是经济学普遍承认的理论：
How interest rates impact stock prices Corporate profits are closely tied to interest rate movements. Many companies borrow for the short term with debt that resets each quarter. The interest on these loans is based on a rate index that mimics changes set by the Federal Reserve using the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate on short-term interbank loans and is typically what is being referred to when folks talk about "rate cuts."
As a result, even the anticipation of a lower federal funds rate by the Federal Reserve can move other interest rates lower. This, in turn, helps boost general economic growth and corporate profits.
以上摘自：
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/how-interest-rates-impact-stock-prices
原因自然是很明显的，因为升息周期的结束，降息的理由一般是因为经济变差：失业率上升，消费降级等，如果严重要影响企业利润，股市自然是要跌的。所以从概率上来讲，多半会跌这个说法确实没有错。 不过不能一概而论，如果只是因为经济疲软、通胀下降、失业率缓降，那是真正意义上的软着落，股市可能会起飞。Timing the market is fool‘s game!
我看Fed 一时半会也不会降息，降也是一点点。未来N年利率在5-7%可能是常态
一般是崩盘后就开始降息，所以看起来两者相关性挺强，但是你把因果搞反了。
板上的纽约金融妹出来说说
70年代维持了10年的高利率到20%
因为每次都说这次不一样，这次是软着陆。至于是不是软着陆那谁也说不准
恐怖
哪年打台湾你都算得出来？你中情局的？
70年代没欠那么多债，利息高应该没啥问题。现在欠那么多债，利息太高会扛不住
你漏算了FED灌的天量水，降息的话股市大概率暴涨。以前FED没怎么灌水的，这是最大的区别。
Recent Rate Cuts: 2023: The Fed raised rates consistently throughout 2022 and early 2023 to combat inflation but did not cut rates. (Note: The exact timing of any cuts in 2023 is hypothetical, as rates had not been cut by May 2023.) 2020: March 3, 2020: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage points, responding to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. March 15, 2020: The Fed cut the rate by another 1 percentage point to a range of 0% to 0.25%, in an emergency move to support the economy during the pandemic. 2019: July 31, 2019: The Fed cut the rate by 0.25 percentage points, marking the first cut since 2008. September 18, 2019: Another 0.25 percentage point cut. October 30, 2019: The Fed cut the rate by an additional 0.25 percentage points. Historical Rate Cuts: 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: September 18, 2007: The Fed cut the rate by 0.5 percentage points. October 31, 2007: Another 0.25 percentage point cut. December 11, 2007: The rate was cut by another 0.25 percentage points. January 22, 2008: Emergency cut of 0.75 percentage points. January 30, 2008: Another 0.5 percentage point cut. March 18, 2008: The rate was reduced by 0.75 percentage points. April 30, 2008: Another 0.25 percentage point cut. October 8, 2008: Coordinated global rate cut of 0.5 percentage points. October 29, 2008: The rate was cut by another 0.5 percentage points. December 16, 2008: The rate was brought down to a range of 0% to 0.25%. Early 2000s Recession: January 3, 2001: The Fed cut the rate by 0.5 percentage points. Throughout 2001, the rate was cut multiple times, ending the year at 1.75%. 1990-1991 Recession: The Fed cut rates several times between 1990 and 1992 to stimulate the economy. 1980s: Following the high-interest rates to combat inflation in the early 1980s, the Fed began cutting rates in the mid-1980s as inflation came under control and the economy needed support.
QE不是早就结束了吗
错，
1970-1982， 加息周期和降息周期，交错进行，每个周期里，连续多次加息或连续多次降息：5次加息周期 与 6次降息周期。
股市怎么样
降息是用来救市的 先崩盘，再降息。
灌的天量水还在啊。