巴菲特的话 Unfortunately, too many people take this at face value and leap to the conclusion that Mr. Buffett has found a magical way to dance in and out of the market, avoiding the inevitable drops. This is not true and in fact he is on record speaking to the folly of trying: “The Dow started the last century at 66 and ended at 11,400. How could you lose money during a period like that? A lot of people did because they tried to dance in and out.” from “The simple path to wealth” 所谓的投资理财，也就是分配一下自己的钱财而已。要一天到晚股票市场里进进出出的投资肯定不如投大盘，自己去上班。 找不到 工作，那另说。
我拿历史数据和事实，你说的万一只是自己毫无根据的瞎想，没有任何意义，所以你这样的人只会瞎想而毫无行动，贻误投资的机会，最后是赚不了钱 The average annualized return since its inception in 1928 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 9.90%. The average annualized return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 10.26%.
Halahi 发表于 2024-05-26 02:29 我拿历史数据和事实，你说的万一只是自己毫无根据的瞎想，没有任何意义，所以你这样的人只会瞎想而毫无行动，贻误投资的机会，最后是赚不了钱 The average annualized return since its inception in 1928 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 9.90%.2 The average annualized return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 10.26%.
你的数据没问题的，但你难道没听说过 “past performance does not guarantee the future results" 吗？
历史数据和趋势可以指导，tail risk 还是要防备的。Its called expect the unexpected. sounded like that's not something in your book. btw, nothing is wrong with keep buying SP500 continuously but keep in mind 90% in equities and 100% in equities has almost idential historical performances.
whoescaped2024 发表于 2024-05-26 02:56 历史数据和趋势可以指导，tail risk 还是要防备的。Its called expect the unexpected. sounded like that's not something in your book. btw, nothing is wrong with keep buying SP500 continuously but keep in mind 90% in equities and 100% in equities has almost idential historical performances.
Halahi 发表于 2024-05-26 02:29 我拿历史数据和事实，你说的万一只是自己毫无根据的瞎想，没有任何意义，所以你这样的人只会瞎想而毫无行动，贻误投资的机会，最后是赚不了钱 The average annualized return since its inception in 1928 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 9.90%. The average annualized return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 10.26%.
The 1966-1982 bear market, with the S&P index losing around 27% of its value over 16 years. The 2000-2003 bear market after the dot-com bubble burst, with a decline of around 45%. The 2007-2009 bear market during the global financial crisis, with the index plunging nearly 57%.
The 1966-1982 bear market, with the S&P index losing around 27% of its value over 16 years. The 2000-2003 bear market after the dot-com bubble burst, with a decline of around 45%. The 2007-2009 bear market during the global financial crisis, with the index plunging nearly 57%.
ddg2001 发表于 2024-05-26 05:15
So what? 所有的钱都必须割肉？还是所有的钱在三年里必须花了？比如2007年有300万，三年熊的时候每年花10万，300万取30万3年后跌一半还有135（大致数字）。从2010-2024年， S&P 500: $100 in 2010 → $586.76 in 2024 假设熊市之后每年取15万花，你要不要算算2009年的135万到2024年有多少？
To calculate how much you would have now if you invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, here are the calculations using the annual returns from the search results: Initial Investment: $3,000,000 (January 2007)2007 Return: 5.49% End of 2007 Value: ($3,000,000 x 1.0549) - $150,000 = $2,964,7002008 Return: -37.00% End of 2008 Value: ($2,964,700 x 0.63) - $150,000 = $1,718,7622009 Return: 26.46% End of 2009 Value: ($1,718,762 x 1.2646) - $150,000 = $2,022,4752010 Return: 15.06% End of 2010 Value: ($2,022,475 x 1.1506) - $150,000 = $2,176,3342011 Return: 2.11% End of 2011 Value: ($2,176,334 x 1.0211) - $150,000 = $2,088,4322012 Return: 16.00% End of 2012 Value: ($2,088,432 x 1.16) - $150,000 = $2,262,5812013 Return: 32.39% End of 2013 Value: ($2,262,581 x 1.3239) - $150,000 = $2,851,5172014 Return: 13.69% End of 2014 Value: ($2,851,517 x 1.1369) - $150,000 = $3,075,5982015 Return: 1.38% End of 2015 Value: ($3,075,598 x 1.0138) - $150,000 = $2,972,9762016 Return: 11.96% End of 2016 Value: ($2,972,976 x 1.1196) - $150,000 = $3,175,6512017 Return: 21.83% End of 2017 Value: ($3,175,651 x 1.2183) - $150,000 = $3,709,2192018 Return: -4.38% End of 2018 Value: ($3,709,219 x 0.9562) - $150,000 = $3,396,1672019 Return: 31.49% End of 2019 Value: ($3,396,167 x 1.3149) - $150,000 = $4,303,2522020 Return: 18.40% End of 2020 Value: ($4,303,252 x 1.184) - $150,000 = $4,917,8522021 Return: 28.71% End of 2021 Value: ($4,917,852 x 1.2871) - $150,000 = $6,032,5222022 Return: -18.11% End of 2022 Value: ($6,032,522 x 0.8189) - $150,000 = $4,748,651 2023 Return (through 5/10/24): 7.73% Current Value (as of 5/10/24): ($4,748,651 x 1.0773) - $150,000 = $4,916,651Therefore, if you had invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, your remaining investment would currently be worth approximately $4,916,651 as of May 10, 2024 The cumulative inflation rate from 2007 to 2024 is 50.64%. This means that $100 in 2007 is equivalent to $150.64 in 2024. In other words, due to inflation, $4,916,651 today is only worth around $3,268,434 when compared to January 2007 prices and the value of the dollar back then. The purchasing power of that amount has decreased by about 33.5% over the 17 years from January 2007 to the present day.
To calculate how much you would have now if you invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, here are the calculations using the annual returns from the search results: Initial Investment: $3,000,000 (January 2007)2007 Return: 5.49% End of 2007 Value: ($3,000,000 x 1.0549) - $150,000 = $2,964,7002008 Return: -37.00% End of 2008 Value: ($2,964,700 x 0.63) - $150,000 = $1,718,7622009 Return: 26.46% End of 2009 Value: ($1,718,762 x 1.2646) - $150,000 = $2,022,4752010 Return: 15.06% End of 2010 Value: ($2,022,475 x 1.1506) - $150,000 = $2,176,3342011 Return: 2.11% End of 2011 Value: ($2,176,334 x 1.0211) - $150,000 = $2,088,4322012 Return: 16.00% End of 2012 Value: ($2,088,432 x 1.16) - $150,000 = $2,262,5812013 Return: 32.39% End of 2013 Value: ($2,262,581 x 1.3239) - $150,000 = $2,851,5172014 Return: 13.69% End of 2014 Value: ($2,851,517 x 1.1369) - $150,000 = $3,075,5982015 Return: 1.38% End of 2015 Value: ($3,075,598 x 1.0138) - $150,000 = $2,972,9762016 Return: 11.96% End of 2016 Value: ($2,972,976 x 1.1196) - $150,000 = $3,175,6512017 Return: 21.83% End of 2017 Value: ($3,175,651 x 1.2183) - $150,000 = $3,709,2192018 Return: -4.38% End of 2018 Value: ($3,709,219 x 0.9562) - $150,000 = $3,396,1672019 Return: 31.49% End of 2019 Value: ($3,396,167 x 1.3149) - $150,000 = $4,303,2522020 Return: 18.40% End of 2020 Value: ($4,303,252 x 1.184) - $150,000 = $4,917,8522021 Return: 28.71% End of 2021 Value: ($4,917,852 x 1.2871) - $150,000 = $6,032,5222022 Return: -18.11% End of 2022 Value: ($6,032,522 x 0.8189) - $150,000 = $4,748,651 2023 Return (through 5/10/24): 7.73% Current Value (as of 5/10/24): ($4,748,651 x 1.0773) - $150,000 = $4,916,651Therefore, if you had invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, your remaining investment would currently be worth approximately $4,916,651 as of May 10, 2024 The cumulative inflation rate from 2007 to 2024 is 50.64%. This means that $100 in 2007 is equivalent to $150.64 in 2024. In other words, due to inflation, $4,916,651 today is only worth around $3,268,434 when compared to January 2007 prices and the value of the dollar back then. The purchasing power of that amount has decreased by about 33.5% over the 17 years from January 2007 to the present day. ddg2001 发表于 2024-05-26 07:21
ddg2001 发表于 2024-05-26 07:21 To calculate how much you would have now if you invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, here are the calculations using the annual returns from the search results: Initial Investment: $3,000,000 (January 2007)2007 Return: 5.49% End of 2007 Value: ($3,000,000 x 1.0549) - $150,000 = $2,964,7002008 Return: -37.00% End of 2008 Value: ($2,964,700 x 0.63) - $150,000 = $1,718,7622009 Return: 26.46% End of 2009 Value: ($1,718,762 x 1.2646) - $150,000 = $2,022,4752010 Return: 15.06% End of 2010 Value: ($2,022,475 x 1.1506) - $150,000 = $2,176,3342011 Return: 2.11% End of 2011 Value: ($2,176,334 x 1.0211) - $150,000 = $2,088,4322012 Return: 16.00% End of 2012 Value: ($2,088,432 x 1.16) - $150,000 = $2,262,5812013 Return: 32.39% End of 2013 Value: ($2,262,581 x 1.3239) - $150,000 = $2,851,5172014 Return: 13.69% End of 2014 Value: ($2,851,517 x 1.1369) - $150,000 = $3,075,5982015 Return: 1.38% End of 2015 Value: ($3,075,598 x 1.0138) - $150,000 = $2,972,9762016 Return: 11.96% End of 2016 Value: ($2,972,976 x 1.1196) - $150,000 = $3,175,6512017 Return: 21.83% End of 2017 Value: ($3,175,651 x 1.2183) - $150,000 = $3,709,2192018 Return: -4.38% End of 2018 Value: ($3,709,219 x 0.9562) - $150,000 = $3,396,1672019 Return: 31.49% End of 2019 Value: ($3,396,167 x 1.3149) - $150,000 = $4,303,2522020 Return: 18.40% End of 2020 Value: ($4,303,252 x 1.184) - $150,000 = $4,917,8522021 Return: 28.71% End of 2021 Value: ($4,917,852 x 1.2871) - $150,000 = $6,032,5222022 Return: -18.11% End of 2022 Value: ($6,032,522 x 0.8189) - $150,000 = $4,748,651 2023 Return (through 5/10/24): 7.73% Current Value (as of 5/10/24): ($4,748,651 x 1.0773) - $150,000 = $4,916,651Therefore, if you had invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, your remaining investment would currently be worth approximately $4,916,651 as of May 10, 2024 The cumulative inflation rate from 2007 to 2024 is 50.64%. This means that $100 in 2007 is equivalent to $150.64 in 2024. In other words, due to inflation, $4,916,651 today is only worth around $3,268,434 when compared to January 2007 prices and the value of the dollar back then. The purchasing power of that amount has decreased by about 33.5% over the 17 years from January 2007 to the present day.
5.49%就是傻投s&p在2007年当年的收益啊，之后chatgpt用每年s&p的actual return的rate逐年算的，就是2007 3M进去，无工作收入，完全rely on 投资大盘的收益，每年从中取15w，17年以后的状况(这里没考虑交capital gain tax)。结论就是after adjusting for inflation的话，基本保证投资账户购买力不变，维持在当年的3M左右。所以如果花销不大，比如出现大的medical bill，3M的投资账户傻投大盘基本够用。当然这当中有碰到08年，但总不能说非要从09年开始算，避开大跌年份，那估计会过于乐观，谁敢说美股未来十几年几十年没有几次大的correction
ddg2001 发表于 2024-05-26 17:56 5.49%就是傻投s&p在2007年当年的收益啊，之后chatgpt用每年s&p的actual return的rate逐年算的，就是2007 3M进去，无工作收入，完全rely on 投资大盘的收益，每年从中取15w，17年以后的状况(这里没考虑交capital gain tax)。结论就是after adjusting for inflation的话，基本保证投资账户购买力不变，维持在当年的3M左右。所以如果花销不大，比如出现大的medical bill，3M的投资账户傻投大盘基本够用。当然这当中有碰到08年，但总不能说非要从09年开始算，避开大跌年份，那估计会过于乐观，谁敢说美股未来十几年几十年没有几次大的correction
多年投资是怎么做的？
非常同意。可投资资产超过3米，就可以钱生钱了。
巴菲特的话
Unfortunately, too many people take this at face value and leap to the conclusion that Mr. Buffett has found a magical way to dance in and out of the market, avoiding the inevitable drops. This is not true and in fact he is on record speaking to the folly of trying: “The Dow started the last century at 66 and ended at 11,400. How could you lose money during a period like that? A lot of people did because they tried to dance in and out.” from “The simple path to wealth”
所谓的投资理财，也就是分配一下自己的钱财而已。要一天到晚股票市场里进进出出的投资肯定不如投大盘，自己去上班。
找不到 工作，那另说。
你的意思是要先实现了王健林的小目标才能考虑投资策略？
15M是妥妥的top1%了，能力机遇运气都要不错才能挤到的阶层，为啥普通人就能做到？ 有可能的话请simulate一个普通人的profile从25到55岁，以数据说话，简单说一下期间如何自律的干了些什么，以5年为一个单位，资产每5年分别达到什么水平。让大家学习一下如何轻松达到小目标。
其实也谈不到眼界窄，可能每个人的工作收入的区别。
如果工作收入还比投资收入多的多，就会觉得这点投资的钱不值得折腾。比如税后收入500k，就会觉得折腾2M的投资没什么意思。
而且每个人的情况也都不一样。我个人感觉，当投资收入大概相当于一个人的税前收入的时候，就已经感觉拼命加班爬ladder不值得了。
增值也得交税。。怎么都肉疼
你现在存了几个m了？全和小红书一个调调，人均一个亿
就是2米到3米之间，比如像2.18米，2.73米的资产
10%这么多吗？那岁数也得挺大该退休了吧。。。。
每个人所在的生活地区不同，每个人的期望值也不同，富足的生活所需的成本就不同。所以有些人需要2，3百万，但是这个不是一个绝对的数字。
我家就是做到了长期定投，所以准备提前躺平了
活到这个年龄还在纠结要强，那是白活了。这个年龄命不好的，60多就噶了，问题是没人知道自己的命是什么。如果没几年活头了，还在纠结几个米还是小目标，殊不知再过几年都和这个人没什么关系了，所谓的要强不仅廉价而且愚蠢
过去30年，S&P 500 average yearly return is 10.47%。老老实实定投S&P 500，靠3米产生投资收益退休，有什么问题？
每人的风险承受力不一，每必要人身攻击吧？退休要有投资产分配，你100% SP500, 万一SP500 你退休那年掉30%, 你得在低点卖资产过活。当然你可以打赌说这不可能发生事。
我拿历史数据和事实，你说的万一只是自己毫无根据的瞎想，没有任何意义，所以你这样的人只会瞎想而毫无行动，贻误投资的机会，最后是赚不了钱
The average annualized return since its inception in 1928 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 9.90%. The average annualized return since adopting 500 stocks into the index in 1957 through Dec. 31, 2023, is 10.26%.
哪个傻子退休前不做财务规划，不留一点现金在手，然后非得等着市场降30%把资产大部分割肉？两个人退休一年能花多少钱，心里没数？
你的数据没问题的，但你难道没听说过 “past performance does not guarantee the future results" 吗？
全世界各行业领域，上到天文下到地理，healthcare, 金融财务，农业石油等等，你说说哪个行业哪个领域不是用历史数据做预测的？难道要拿个水晶球跳大神预测？
就留一点现金恐怕不行的。听你的口气你是100% equity 不过退休本身就是个概率问题，个人的选择。无论是100% equity 还是50% 没有对错的。
一点是多少？如果不能有依据的量化这些数字，只会含糊其辞，也是没任何意义。退休的时候房贷车贷没有的情况下，两个人吃喝拉撒要多少钱？房产税utility 汽油等必要支出多少？旅游花多少？这些难道不是退休前财务规划的重要组成？
历史数据和趋势可以指导，tail risk 还是要防备的。Its called expect the unexpected. sounded like that's not something in your book. btw, nothing is wrong with keep buying SP500 continuously but keep in mind 90% in equities and 100% in equities has almost idential historical performances.
你这就是因噎废食，所以赚不到钱。产生投资收益的资产，退休后的花销，拉个excel 搞个scenario analysis 都明白了，不用纠结所谓的tail risk。这种risk 发生的probability, 熊市会续存多长时间，离开具体的数据事实和分析，讲的都是没用的
赚不到什么钱啊？I retired already, I am more intested in capital preservation + beating inflation in the next 45 years.
哈哈 这个嘛 我觉得看看就够了
The 1966-1982 bear market, with the S&P index losing around 27% of its value over 16 years. The 2000-2003 bear market after the dot-com bubble burst, with a decline of around 45%. The 2007-2009 bear market during the global financial crisis, with the index plunging nearly 57%.
So what? 所有的钱都必须割肉？还是所有的钱在三年里必须花了？比如2007年有300万，三年熊的时候每年花10万，300万取30万3年后跌一半还有135（大致数字）。从2010-2024年， S&P 500: $100 in 2010 → $586.76 in 2024 假设熊市之后每年取15万花，你要不要算算2009年的135万到2024年有多少？
你如果只看所谓的的tail risk 过于保守， 可能跑不赢通胀
07年300万，24年586, 每年才4%，这个跟4% Rule差不多
你怎么算的？09年的100万，24年586万。07年的300万到09年按我的大致算法取了30万，还有135万。135乘以5.86，是791万，好吗？
To calculate how much you would have now if you invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, here are the calculations using the annual returns from the search results: Initial Investment: $3,000,000 (January 2007)2007 Return: 5.49% End of 2007 Value: ($3,000,000 x 1.0549) - $150,000 = $2,964,7002008 Return: -37.00% End of 2008 Value: ($2,964,700 x 0.63) - $150,000 = $1,718,7622009 Return: 26.46% End of 2009 Value: ($1,718,762 x 1.2646) - $150,000 = $2,022,4752010 Return: 15.06% End of 2010 Value: ($2,022,475 x 1.1506) - $150,000 = $2,176,3342011 Return: 2.11% End of 2011 Value: ($2,176,334 x 1.0211) - $150,000 = $2,088,4322012 Return: 16.00% End of 2012 Value: ($2,088,432 x 1.16) - $150,000 = $2,262,5812013 Return: 32.39% End of 2013 Value: ($2,262,581 x 1.3239) - $150,000 = $2,851,5172014 Return: 13.69% End of 2014 Value: ($2,851,517 x 1.1369) - $150,000 = $3,075,5982015 Return: 1.38% End of 2015 Value: ($3,075,598 x 1.0138) - $150,000 = $2,972,9762016 Return: 11.96% End of 2016 Value: ($2,972,976 x 1.1196) - $150,000 = $3,175,6512017 Return: 21.83% End of 2017 Value: ($3,175,651 x 1.2183) - $150,000 = $3,709,2192018 Return: -4.38% End of 2018 Value: ($3,709,219 x 0.9562) - $150,000 = $3,396,1672019 Return: 31.49% End of 2019 Value: ($3,396,167 x 1.3149) - $150,000 = $4,303,2522020 Return: 18.40% End of 2020 Value: ($4,303,252 x 1.184) - $150,000 = $4,917,8522021 Return: 28.71% End of 2021 Value: ($4,917,852 x 1.2871) - $150,000 = $6,032,5222022 Return: -18.11% End of 2022 Value: ($6,032,522 x 0.8189) - $150,000 = $4,748,651 2023 Return (through 5/10/24): 7.73% Current Value (as of 5/10/24): ($4,748,651 x 1.0773) - $150,000 = $4,916,651Therefore, if you had invested $3 million in the S&P 500 index in January 2007, withdrew $150,000 at the end of each year, and reinvested dividends, your remaining investment would currently be worth approximately $4,916,651 as of May 10, 2024
The cumulative inflation rate from 2007 to 2024 is 50.64%. This means that $100 in 2007 is equivalent to $150.64 in 2024. In other words, due to inflation, $4,916,651 today is only worth around $3,268,434 when compared to January 2007 prices and the value of the dollar back then. The purchasing power of that amount has decreased by about 33.5% over the 17 years from January 2007 to the present day.
自住房到老了可以reverse mortgage的。
区别主要是，自住房有刚需，不能拿出来交易。
对的，每个人情况不一样看待这个投资的问题就不一样，你要是有个轻松的能大部分时间在家上班又钱多（比如远超过投资）的工作肯定不愿意瞎折腾。另外如果你的工作和金融市场相关，少做点个人投资也是个hedge
每年买10万大盘，30年后就是1500万。
退休了，不是每年要取出起码10万吗。
哦，你说的是一开始工作就定投。。。刚工作有那么多钱吗，还得买房生孩子
4%法则就是很好的例子
真的想有mindset change的话，可以想一想自己生存需要的minimum是什么。知道了那个数字，就可以心地开朗积极的应对生活中工作中的挫折，因为没啥可怕的
存款投资是人生的一个安全网，而不是一个安乐窝
不管多少钱，死前没花完，都是无用资产。赶紧在还能蹦跶的时候买快乐，在孩子需要的时候砸钱买机会买教育，争取死的时候只剩下葬礼费，了无牵挂回归大自然。
同意，如果用4%，10米有40万年均收益，确实工作变得没那么重要了。
相信你自己相信的就好，没必要说服和你不在一个空间里的人
年轻时候选择了不同的道路，然后相信自己在这个过程中得到了自己想要的东西。记住既然你要的就是体验而已，那老了以后就不要酸酸的去羡慕别人拥有了财富。
mindset改变是一个过程，而不是一个具体数字
之所以说2-3m是一个milestone，是因为从0开始积累财富的过程，在达到这个坐标后开始加速，然后同时你的操作方法也会开始成熟。积累第一个M需要最长的时间，因为需要买房生娃，应付各种家庭开销。但是有了第一个M，2m会快一半时间，3m会再快一半。这是一个开方公式速度，到了5m以后，遇到好的市场，7-8个月就能涨1M
你这个5.49%retun 有依据吗？你不要从2007算，你从2009算，因为前面有人在说2007-2009大跌，我整个在说的是跌了以后会怎么样。另外，你每年都取15万，还想怎么样？能否退休不就是看nest egg 够不够花吗？我只需要证明不仅够花，还花不完即可。你非得扯别的，既要又要还要，心太贪
在没有房贷的情况下，有15-20万能拿来花，也没有工作的必要，4-5米即可
按8%增长率也是1000万，不是1500万
capital gain怎么会有一半的税？
把取钱算到return%，也太夸张了吧？
是的，退休了没有孩子要养，房贷车贷也还清了，要考虑的就是65岁之前的医疗保险。
还有如何相对稳定的让资产增值cover退休费用了。
投资就是如果牛市收益可以赚好几年工资（税后），才值得搞。
不然你搞他干嘛。乖乖回家种红薯。
那只能说你工资不高而已，我看这个问题和你相反，如果你奖金波动轻轻松松一年投资超额收益（相对于买大盘）为啥要去花时间搞这些
我啥也没干，YTD，账上已经多了60多万，超过我一年收入了。还没问队友的收益，估计也会不少于他YTD的搬砖收入了。然并卵，我俩目前肯定不会辞职。上班还是最旱涝保收的赚钱方式，投资账户上赚的，也许到年底又还回去了或亏了，但上班的收入，给我了就不会再被划走（IRS除外）。之所以敢把钱放在股市沉浮，也正是因为在上班，有收入可以保证生活，投资失败也不会没有退路。
我就是典型散户，牛市跟着赚点钱，熊市血流成河，真心不敢把生活寄托在股市（真心还不如投资房安稳）。要是考虑退休，肯定会把相当一部分钱变得很保守，最多只敢考虑流行的4%的说法，或更低。
一看那人就是脑子不清楚
你炒个股，风险当然大。过去十几年老老实实投大盘，现在可能就退休了
5.49%就是傻投s&p在2007年当年的收益啊，之后chatgpt用每年s&p的actual return的rate逐年算的，就是2007 3M进去，无工作收入，完全rely on 投资大盘的收益，每年从中取15w，17年以后的状况(这里没考虑交capital gain tax)。结论就是after adjusting for inflation的话，基本保证投资账户购买力不变，维持在当年的3M左右。所以如果花销不大，比如出现大的medical bill，3M的投资账户傻投大盘基本够用。当然这当中有碰到08年，但总不能说非要从09年开始算，避开大跌年份，那估计会过于乐观，谁敢说美股未来十几年几十年没有几次大的correction
我从2009开始算，但baseline 已经不是300万了，135万开始的好吗？大盘投资以外你还能找到其他更好的投资方式吗？你买bond, 存CD过去三十年会怎样？2008-2012年房子跌得更多。我都不明白你抱怨个啥，敢情你拿钱出来吃了喝了，本金不仅一分不动还要一直涨，涨出个金山你才满意？还是那句话，太贪婪，这种心态作出的财务决策迟早翻车
如果只有3m 流水，自住付清的前提下，是可以做到lean fire，但是这种生活是要算着过的，如果年纪不大没必要quit工作，可以继续滚钱啊
想要比较爽一点需要滚到10m 流水+自住付清。如果能做到40岁之前除了自住，还有3m以上流水，其实是很有希望在55岁退休之前滚到10m的（很保守的算法了）
怎么可能。公司给你发几十万奖金？还要交一半的税？还年年有？做什么白日梦。
W2 最主要的劣势是税基。
我其实对此有些困惑。我已经攒到了楼主说的数字，而且还多很多。但是我还是很在意自己在工作上的表现。原因有两个。一个是，我觉得我的个人价值由工作决定，如果我不在prestigous公司工作，title不够高，我就觉得自己很差劲。这可能是国内高考留下的后遗症
最近刚刚有案例，有人把老人杀死好提前拿他的房子 conflict of interest
我大头完全不是个股（公司股票除外，那个不是主动选择），投基金啊（包括大盘指数）。至于能不能退休，各家冷暖自知呗。有人喜欢搞FIRE，有人不喜欢，没有对错。
你觉得满意就一笑置之的退休啊，为啥还生气别人赚不到钱
多半是你心里也没底，才会生气，哈哈
就是，想退就退了，何必大家都一样
神经，脑子真会脑补，你哪只钛合金眼睛看见我生气了？
你想得很清楚，没什么困惑呀？