The Beijing Shanghai HSR route cost something like $34.7b in 2013 dollars. Now, 90 trains run a day; minimum time 4 hrs 18 mins, taking 35m passengers a year in 2021. Turned a profit in 2019 of $1.8b, despite subsidized prices (cheapest one-way is $70). So very NPV positive.
https://macropolo.org/digital-projects/high-speed-rail/case-study/ Case Study: The Beijing-Shanghai Route Connecting two of China’s most populous metropolises, the Beijing-Shanghai HSR line commenced on June 30, 2011. The train tops out at a speed of 217 mph and can complete the more than 800-mile trip in about 4.5 hours. At that speed, it is possible to leave Beijing on the 7am train and get to Shanghai by lunch, conduct several back-to-back meetings, and return to Beijing before midnight. It is by far the most commercially successful route, becoming profitable in 2014, just three years after it began operations. In 2019, the route turned a net profit of $1.8 billion. That profitability has been achieved in spite of the fact that HSR ticket prices are still largely set by the Chinese government. The cheapest one-way ticket in coach is still quite affordable at around $70 (business class ticket costs three times more). But the Beijing-Shanghai line makes up for subsidized ticket prices with passenger volume because it connects the most economically prosperous and populous regions in China. In 2019 alone, the route carried a staggering Brazil’s worth of passengers (215 million), up more than 200% from 2012. More than half a million travel on that line on a typical day, and in August 2019 it had set a single-day record of 781,000 passengers, about the population of Seattle. These passenger volumes can be achieved because the route significantly improves connectivity across multiple vibrant urban clusters. Not only are the two departure and destination cities home to some 20 million residents, the route also traverses through other major cities such as Nanjing and Tianjin, each with a population of roughly 10 million. The route has a total of 24 stops, which translates into sizable additional traffic between the other stops. Average distance traveled per passenger has stood at roughly 400 miles, or half the full length of the entire route. Economic Change along the BJ-SH Route Below are satellite images of two stops along the Beijing-Shanghai route: the cities of Tai’an and Jinan. Use the slider to see the “before” and “after” of the local economy around these stops. Tai'an City Station How it started How it's going Tai’an is a city near Mount Tai, a popular tourist destination with historic and cultural significance. Jinan West Station How it started How it's going Jinan West Station serves the capital of Shandong Province and is one of the busier stops along the route. Indigenizing HSR Suppliers For much of the past 15 years, China was the single largest market for HSR. It began its HSR buildout when countries like Japan and France had largely completed their networks, and no other country pursued such ambitions. As the main market for HSR, China attracted foreign investors, imported necessary components, but at the same time also aimed to build a domestic supply chain. Today, China has indigenized 90% of that HSR supply chain, an accomplishment that has made the HSR a favorite flagship technology touted by the Chinese government. That domestic supply chain, however, centers on a single state-owned enterprise China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC). With 53 subsidiaries and business units under its wing, CRRC assembles all of China’s HSR trains and supplies most of its components, making it effectively a monopoly. With annual revenue of around $30 billion, CRRC is now the world’s largest rolling-stock producer and has been increasingly going global as China hopes to export both its HSR and traditional trains. Although CRRC is the dominant player, it still relies on a number of private and foreign firms as suppliers of certain components. Below are select key HSR components and their respective main suppliers.
Now, 90 trains run a day; minimum time 4 hrs 18 mins, taking 35m passengers a year in 2021. Turned a profit in 2019 of $1.8b, despite subsidized prices (cheapest one-way is $70). So very NPV positive.
Case Study: The Beijing-Shanghai Route Connecting two of China’s most populous metropolises, the Beijing-Shanghai HSR line commenced on June 30, 2011. The train tops out at a speed of 217 mph and can complete the more than 800-mile trip in about 4.5 hours. At that speed, it is possible to leave Beijing on the 7am train and get to Shanghai by lunch, conduct several back-to-back meetings, and return to Beijing before midnight.
Tai’an is a city near Mount Tai, a popular tourist destination with historic and cultural significance. Jinan West Station How it started How it's going
Jinan West Station serves the capital of Shandong Province and is one of the busier stops along the route. Indigenizing HSR Suppliers For much of the past 15 years, China was the single largest market for HSR. It began its HSR buildout when countries like Japan and France had largely completed their networks, and no other country pursued such ambitions. As the main market for HSR, China attracted foreign investors, imported necessary components, but at the same time also aimed to build a domestic supply chain. Today, China has indigenized 90% of that HSR supply chain, an accomplishment that has made the HSR a favorite flagship technology touted by the Chinese government. That domestic supply chain, however, centers on a single state-owned enterprise China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC). With 53 subsidiaries and business units under its wing, CRRC assembles all of China’s HSR trains and supplies most of its components, making it effectively a monopoly. With annual revenue of around $30 billion, CRRC is now the world’s largest rolling-stock producer and has been increasingly going global as China hopes to export both its HSR and traditional trains. Although CRRC is the dominant player, it still relies on a number of private and foreign firms as suppliers of certain components. Below are select key HSR components and their respective main suppliers.
Associate Professor of Finance, @NYUStern. Finance/Real Estate/Urban
哪怕是深圳到长沙的，那段高铁，现在都有站票。那些拿站票的人，会注意窗户边上的指示灯（和飞机类似，红色就显示有人坐，绿色意味着空，有时候要下一个站才有人上来），哪一段有空位就坐下去。 我感觉如今在国内坐高铁，和坐公交一样。
运什么椅子啊，回国的时候发现买票都要提前买，怕当场买不到。高铁真是太方便了。
中国又不是就一条高铁，京沪高铁一直是最繁忙的一条，即使说这，按照他所说，一年$1.8b profit，总投资$34.7b, 年回报5%多一点，也说不上是very NPV positive，更何况京沪高铁有年份还是亏损，比如去年。问题京沪也就这样，其它高铁咋样了？
这个不能和航空公司比，这个得和公路比, public infrastructure. 带动盘活了很多城市的联系。很多商业活动，旅游休闲，以前10多个小时是件事儿，现在两个小时拎个包就走了。
如果作为存粹business 来运营，这个价格还远不到sweet spot. 利润空间大着呢。现在的票价就是利民惠民。
有道理，公共交通是基础建设的一部分，就像高等教育一样。要都钻钱眼了，北大清华都关了算了，一年几百亿进去，学费才能收回几个钱
是啊 三甲医院主任医师 挂号费才两三美元 肯定是有物价控制的
还是没有椅背的那种 😂
美华只会替资本家算计每运一个人赚多少钱的思维是不是太可笑了，目光短浅思维狭隘啊。中国高铁又不是为了赚这点钱而建的，为的是惠及我们十几亿县镇的居民，把乡村融入城市，带动边远地区就业，让绝大部分一辈子没离开过县城的老农民随便想上哪就上哪，城市里的人想游哪就游哪，以前的美华回中国乡下可能要花2周时间，现在20个小时就到了。。。这种价值美华是不是智商再高也算不了
无锡的茶颜悦色和干面包， 好多上海人就是周末坐高铁去买
还有一些厉害的就是说中午想去溜达，就溜达一杯奶茶回来了
我十年前在上海的时候，就是周末醒早了，就奔火车站现场用手机上网买张最近发车高铁票，去杭州或者苏州，晃晃吃吃，再下午或者傍晚手机上网买张高铁票回家，一天一百多块钱搞定。
而且我记得那时候到处都是免费wifi，我手机没data了都不着急，现在国内手机套餐送data都是几十G的送，还包入户网络。
这是真方便，就算同城，随便堵个车，也很容易路上花一个小时。
怎么说呢，还是比搞投资房强吧，其实主要还是逢中必反。
光分析京沪线没有意义。这条线是唯一还是唯二的盈利线，其他的都亏啊。国内最大的问题是不做详尽调研就大干快上。然后很多高铁就赔钱。。不知道接下来国家没钱了咋办呢？
按照这逻辑，美国的interstate highway system每年亏多少钱？ 因为不收费，所以100%纯亏？
不知道啊，咱要不要把全美的高速公路网都拆了？ 不收费，纯亏钱。。
好像车票就几十块钱，相当于打个车。。。
高速公路的修了很多年了吧。和高铁成本那个更高？你的建议没看懂。我只是说在建高铁前应该充分研究市场觉得有足够需求才建。美国不是很多地方也是说要建高铁到现在也没能实行。成本太高，资金投入时间长。光看表面没有用
举美国高速公路的例子，是为了说明你用盈利来判断是否有足够的市场需求，是完全脱离实际且不可行的
如果高铁亏钱所以不该建 那么高速公路更是亏损的一塌糊涂，当然更不该建
如果这个效率提升了，其他行业或个人都赚钱了，税收自然就多了。
层主鼠目寸光。中国高铁是为了赚钱才修的吗？带动沿途城市，乡村的经济发展才是目的。现在全中国的城市乡村的经济能够快速发展，高铁功不可没。经济发展的价值是建高铁成本的百倍千倍。
我带着孩子在餐车那节溜达，一到站，乘务员们就下车把一堆外卖拿上车，然后送到座位上。我当时是扫座位上的一个码点餐，很多店可以选。太方便了。当时想着，在美国又要给小费了。