另一篇分析老人院需求的文章可以提供一些另外的数据 https://seniorshousingbusiness.com/the-silver-tsunami-finally-arrives/ For decades now, developers have been building up for a massive demographic wave of baby boomers aging into seniors housing. We’ve all heard the numbers: 10,000 Americans will turn 80 every day starting in 2025. By 2030, all 73 million boomers will be of retirement age. The wave was nicknamed the silver tsunami. With the first baby boomers turning 78 next year, the generation is officially of age for seniors housing. While the crest of the metaphorical tsunami is still a few years behind, the front edge of the wave is here. Such a compelling trend begs this question: With all the talk about developing new communities to serve baby boomers, what do these new residents want and what do they look like? Research firm ProMatura offers some insight. The company conducted a study of independent living prospects for the American Seniors Housing Association (ASHA) in 2001, and just a few years ago completed another in 2020. Comparing the two studies gives us insight into how the seniors housing demographic has changed. “Prospects moving to an independent living community today are older, wealthier, frailer and more likely to use an assistive device than the prospects in 2001,” summarizes ProMatura. According to ProMatura, today’s residents compared to 20 years ago are: • 41 percent less likely to move to independent living before reaching the age of 80 and 76 percent more likely to move after reaching 85. • 49 percent less likely to rate their health as excellent or good. • 50 percent more likely to have fallen in the last six months. • 33 percent more likely to have been hospitalized overnight. • 27 percent more likely to use a cane. • 128 percent more likely to use a walker. • 100 percent more likely to use a wheelchair. • 21 percent more likely to be limited in mobility. • 80 percent more likely to receive home healthcare services. • 29 percent more likely to have long-term care insurance. • 147 percent more likely to have an annual household income of $100,000 or more. • 148 percent more likely to have a net worth of $2 million or more. • 68 percent less likely to live in a community with an entrance fee. • 56 percent more likely to pay rent.
房地产买卖不是最讲究market comp的吗？找Agent来帮你卖房子的时候，他／她要做的第一件事就是market analysis，主要就是近期内附近有没有类似的房子售出，价位，成交前在市场上停留多长时间（days on market）。 有个说法是买房子的时候不要买同一个小区内最高端的房型，因为你就是花很多钱打理装修，最后的房价取决于你的邻居们卖房成交的房价。 我觉得现在市场上最紧缺的是小户型starter family home，比较大的McMansion一直就不怎么好卖，以后十年估计会更不好卖。人口老化是大势所趋
现在买房，不管自住还是投资。 都是inflation hedge，赌真实通胀比政府给的数据高。跟利率不利率关系感觉不大了。 看到FED 08救市，covid印钱, biden不管经济有病没病，狂花钱，包括3月份小银行那一拨。 大家都不傻了， 股市buy the fucking dip, 房地产buy the fucking dip, cause its only a dip with Fed put. 什么需求不需求的，只要少数人有inflation hedge需求就好了。 多数人以后就是看父母能留多少资产下来。 其实大多数人都知道这是个ponzi scheme. 但是你不玩就只能被无情掠夺，所以都来玩了。 至于以后怎么样也不在乎，反正现在要防止被割韭菜。 stock crashes in 2001, housing crashes in 2008, next time, bonds market would probably crash with worthless dollars. 但是谁也不知道什么时候到来。 这期间就一起疯呗。
楼主是囤了多少房？
就是。
美国好像平均household每7/8年就会换房。贷arm的大都是本来就打算7-10年换房的（e.g.孩子上大学down size, 要了孩子改买学区房等, 攒了更多钱upgrade）。前两年史低利率周围打算长持的大都30/15年fix.
我想想不出来圣地亚哥的房子， 人们怎么会住得起。
稍微好点的这几年， 房产税， 保险， utility， 轻轻松松每年4万美元以上。很多人不理解， 这边靠山谷的房子很多， 保险就6000美元， 地税三万到五万， 水和电都奇贵， 轻松一年七千美元。 房子也就4000英尺。新房子还有那个梦露费。。。
这是税后。。。 孩子读书吗？ 开车吗？
不知道人们咋能活得下去？！
我之前还犹豫选7-arm，只有2%左右，30年是2.6左右，最后选了2.6
现在还去买圣地亚哥的，那是钱多的没地方花，几百万对total portfolio 来说九牛一毛的人
好吧，我顺着你和隔壁那个清风ID意思说，漂亮国经济要瘫痪，房价要抱爹，你俩还不赶紧清空房车all in反指，过几年一举入市立马FIRE。
聪明人闷声干大事，少废话。过几年回来亮一下账户，大家立马下跪。
炮哥说了，亚哥sfh 稀缺，比金子还金贵，全世界富人都来买房
只会涨
很多人在利率低的时候做了arm的。虽然你回头看觉得他们不讲逻辑但是当时arm利率更低有些人觉得自己不会常住/长持就选了arm。
我身边真有这种... 不懂为啥他们前几年没refin???
不是每个人都想做房东。另外很多老美是急忙的要把增值的部分拿出来花的。不像中国人的攒钱思维。很多老美收入很高但是没啥积蓄的。也有人就一套自住房房也要timing the market搬来搬去。有时候判断错误。
我真知道有老美把自住房子卖了套现几十万.. 放弃2 percent 利率不知道后来怎么样了
还有疫情2020把弯曲房子卖了, 搬走, 现在搬不回去了
现在指望的是通胀能快速回落，2年后联储会重新回到降息通道
中餐馆真的是很敢涨
以前家附近算贵的日餐，现在已经跟中餐差不多价格了
我觉得历史来看，高利率是长期的，可能以后会一直这么高
但是商业地产真的要惨，适合lz说的情况。
曾经甚至30年的比ARM还低
4000尺的房子住不起，可以住2000尺的；CV住不起，可以住mira mesa；sfh住不起，可以住condo。圣地亚哥几百万人不都这么活着的吗
关于人类社会3-4年后的担心 世界大战啥时候爆发 荷包蛋什么时候发射
而且boomer都比较有钱，对利率不太敏感，在房子上赚到了升值的大头，即使房价下降一些也会卖（就是不会为了赚最后一分钱斤斤计较）。
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meredith-whitney-housing-prices-are-due-for-a-fall-starting-in-2024-100042234.html
For decades now, developers have been building up for a massive demographic wave of baby boomers aging into seniors housing. We’ve all heard the numbers: 10,000 Americans will turn 80 every day starting in 2025. By 2030, all 73 million boomers will be of retirement age. The wave was nicknamed the silver tsunami. With the first baby boomers turning 78 next year, the generation is officially of age for seniors housing. While the crest of the metaphorical tsunami is still a few years behind, the front edge of the wave is here. Such a compelling trend begs this question: With all the talk about developing new communities to serve baby boomers, what do these new residents want and what do they look like? Research firm ProMatura offers some insight. The company conducted a study of independent living prospects for the American Seniors Housing Association (ASHA) in 2001, and just a few years ago completed another in 2020. Comparing the two studies gives us insight into how the seniors housing demographic has changed. “Prospects moving to an independent living community today are older, wealthier, frailer and more likely to use an assistive device than the prospects in 2001,” summarizes ProMatura. According to ProMatura, today’s residents compared to 20 years ago are: • 41 percent less likely to move to independent living before reaching the age of 80 and 76 percent more likely to move after reaching 85. • 49 percent less likely to rate their health as excellent or good. • 50 percent more likely to have fallen in the last six months. • 33 percent more likely to have been hospitalized overnight. • 27 percent more likely to use a cane. • 128 percent more likely to use a walker. • 100 percent more likely to use a wheelchair. • 21 percent more likely to be limited in mobility. • 80 percent more likely to receive home healthcare services. • 29 percent more likely to have long-term care insurance. • 147 percent more likely to have an annual household income of $100,000 or more. • 148 percent more likely to have a net worth of $2 million or more. • 68 percent less likely to live in a community with an entrance fee. • 56 percent more likely to pay rent.
不担心，越低越好
房地产买卖不是最讲究market comp的吗？找Agent来帮你卖房子的时候，他／她要做的第一件事就是market analysis，主要就是近期内附近有没有类似的房子售出，价位，成交前在市场上停留多长时间（days on market）。
有个说法是买房子的时候不要买同一个小区内最高端的房型，因为你就是花很多钱打理装修，最后的房价取决于你的邻居们卖房成交的房价。
我觉得现在市场上最紧缺的是小户型starter family home，比较大的McMansion一直就不怎么好卖，以后十年估计会更不好卖。人口老化是大势所趋
看到FED 08救市，covid印钱, biden不管经济有病没病，狂花钱，包括3月份小银行那一拨。 大家都不傻了， 股市buy the fucking dip, 房地产buy the fucking dip, cause its only a dip with Fed put.
什么需求不需求的，只要少数人有inflation hedge需求就好了。 多数人以后就是看父母能留多少资产下来。
其实大多数人都知道这是个ponzi scheme. 但是你不玩就只能被无情掠夺，所以都来玩了。 至于以后怎么样也不在乎，反正现在要防止被割韭菜。
stock crashes in 2001, housing crashes in 2008, next time, bonds market would probably crash with worthless dollars.
但是谁也不知道什么时候到来。 这期间就一起疯呗。
别秀智商上限了，30年的贷款，即使低利率，前7年也是交了绝大部分利息。卖房子时，利息相当是是白给银行，相当于给银行交税，除非房价涨幅能够超过利率。 当然还得考虑这些年交的房产税
30年看看你前10年换了多少利息。
贷款只有15年的还可以考虑
30年的贷款，前15年还款的大部分都是利息。以为着你的loan amount没有下降，说白了，卖房时换的利息相当于打水漂
投入的那些本金，月供是有机会成本的
借你吉言！让我也能买上房子吧。现在真的是买不起，撑死也买不起，除非中彩票。。。还有板上那位一直各种回帖“房价不降，直播吃屎”的仁兄，我真的希望他可以不用吃屎！！！
很正常呀，当时arm还是比fixed便宜50bps，当时三十年是3%，7年arm是2.5%或者2.25%。想着过几年也许房子就卖了搬家了。谁想到利率涨的这么快这么急呢？
当然是只还剩余本金