今天boa CEO也说，Recession is coming as consumers cut spending。 shzbc 发表于 2023-06-28 11:24
HSBC 昨天也刚说了呀 A U.S. recession is coming this year, HSBC warns A U.S. recession is coming this year, HSBC warns — with Europe to follow in 2024 PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 27 20236:39 AM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUN 27 20238:34 AM EDT Elliot Smith @ELLIOTSMITHCNBC KEY POINTS In its midyear outlook, the British banking giant’s asset manager said recession warnings are “flashing red” for many economies, while fiscal and monetary policies are “out of sync” with stock and bond markets. Along with China, HSBC believes India is the “main macro growth story in 2023” as the economy has recovered strongly from the Covid pandemic on the back of resurgent consumer spending and services. Hong Kong observation wheel, and the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank, HSBC building, Victoria harbor, Hong Kong, China. Ucg | Universal Images Group | Getty Images The U.S. will enter a downturn in the fourth quarter, followed by a “year of contraction and a European recession in 2024,” according to HSBC Asset Management. In its midyear outlook, the British banking giant’s asset manager said recession warnings are “flashing red” for many economies, while fiscal and monetary policies are out of sync with stock and bond markets.
今天早上刚读到的，这帮人有谱没谱啊 A reliable indicator says the next recession might be 3 years away Today's Takeaway is by Julie Hyman, an anchor at Yahoo Finance. A US economic recession — for the past year always around the corner, according to pundits — hasn’t come yet. As Myles Udland wrote in yesterday’s Morning Brief, the recession clock, so to speak, has been reset.
这是今天最新的说法 Powell says more ‘restriction’ is coming, including possibility of hikes at consecutive meetings PUBLISHED WED, JUN 28 20239:48 AM EDTUPDATED 37 MIN AGO Jeff Cox @JEFF.COX.7528 @JEFFCOXCNBCCOM WATCH NOWVIDEO03:02 Fed’s Powell on interest rate hikes: More restriction coming because of strong labor market Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talked tough on inflation Wednesday, saying at a forum that he expects multiple interest rate increases ahead and possibly at an aggressive pace. “We believe there’s more restriction coming,” Powell said during a monetary policy session in Sintra, Portugal. “What’s really driving it ... is a very strong labor market.” The comments reiterate a position taken by Powell’s fellow policymakers at their June meeting, during which they indicated the likelihood of another half percentage point of increases through the end of 2023. Assuming a quarter point per meeting, that would mean two more hikes. Previous comments from Powell pointed to a possibility of the rises coming at alternate meetings, though he said Wednesday that might not be the case depending on how the data come in. The Fed hiked at each meeting since March 2022, a span that included four straight three-quarter point moves, before taking a break in June. “I wouldn’t take, you know, moving at consecutive meetings off the table,” he said during an exchange moderated by CNBC’s Sara Eisen. The question-and-answer session took place at a forum sponsored by the European Central Bank. Markets took a modest hit as Powell spoke, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 120 points. Central to the Fed’s current thinking is the belief that the 10 straight rate hikes haven’t had time to work their way through the economy. Therefore, officials can’t be sure whether policy meets the “sufficiently restrictive” standard to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. Most economists think the rate increases ultimately will pull the U.S. into at least a shallow recession. “There’s a significant possibility that there will be a downturn,” Powell said, adding that it’s not “the most likely case, but it’s certainly possible.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says there is a significant chance of a recession in the US but it is not the most likely case during a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. (Source: Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-06-28/fed-s-powell-recession-not-the-most-likely-case-for-us-video
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says there is a significant chance of a recession in the US but it is not the most likely case during a panel discussion at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. (Source: Bloomberg) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-06-28/fed-s-powell-recession-not-the-most-likely-case-for-us-video ted.hanks 发表于 2023-06-28 11:49
请问 既是 significant chance 但又不是 the most likely 到底是什么？
回复 1楼wojiushifa的帖子 There is no recession. And this is a problem for him. Everything this Mazer faker Sun of a beach said is warn consumers not to spend money and warn banks not to lend money to bring down inflation without further increasing rates. This is a day dreamer. People are not stupid. Everything he said got negative effect on his intention. He should have kept his mouth shut and just go home drink some beer.
世界上到底有几个美国、几个鲍威尔？ June 28, 2023, 11:37 AM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday voiced an optimistic message about the U.S. economy and downplayed the threat of a recession. "The U.S. economy has actually been quite resilient," Powell said in Sentra, Portugal, at a conference organized by the European Central Bank. While acknowledging that a recession is "certainly possible," he said such an outcome is "not the most likely case." "The economy is resilient and still growing, albeit at a modest pace," he added.
回复 53楼qqyxgz的帖子 “significant probability we get a recession” 跟他说的“a recession is "certainly possible," he said such an outcome is "not the most likely case."”也不抵触。Not the most likely case当然 not most unlikely case。
回复 60楼qqyxgz的帖子 Why people don''''t keep up with news in 1 second? All 23 of the U.S. banks included in the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test weathered a severe recession scenario while continuing to lend to consumers and corporations, the regulator said Wednesday. If banks keep lending, a recession is coming and inflation will be down without increasing rates because high price will automatically trigger it without rates increase. If banks don''''t keep lending, inflation will be down and no need to increase rates. Either way..
回复 63楼的帖子 June 28, 2023 02:03 PM 4 HOURS AGO Powell says more rate hikes probably ahead, but recession unlikely Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday the Fed will likely resume interest rate hikes, citing a tight labor market and persistent inflation, but a recession is "not the most likely case."
说的也没错啊，其他地方更差，矬子里面的将军
怀疑美国这些官员的学位都是买来的，他们自己都不知道自己在说什么
老炮今天刚刚在一个欧洲会议上confirm了今年要加2次
你也别急，就算高位买的，20年内应该也出水
HSBC 昨天也刚说了呀
A U.S. recession is coming this year, HSBC warns A U.S. recession is coming this year, HSBC warns — with Europe to follow in 2024 PUBLISHED TUE, JUN 27 20236:39 AM EDTUPDATED TUE, JUN 27 20238:34 AM EDT Elliot Smith @ELLIOTSMITHCNBC
KEY POINTS In its midyear outlook, the British banking giant’s asset manager said recession warnings are “flashing red” for many economies, while fiscal and monetary policies are “out of sync” with stock and bond markets.
Along with China, HSBC believes India is the “main macro growth story in 2023” as the economy has recovered strongly from the Covid pandemic on the back of resurgent consumer spending and services.
A reliable indicator says the next recession might be 3 years away Today's Takeaway is by Julie Hyman, an anchor at Yahoo Finance.
A US economic recession — for the past year always around the corner, according to pundits — hasn’t come yet. As Myles Udland wrote in yesterday’s Morning Brief, the recession clock, so to speak, has been reset.
鲍爷不算内阁成员，且任期始于川普当政
作为 FED 主席，最重要的一项技能是要在各场合说车轱辘模棱两可的话， 听众似乎听出了啥又好像啥也没说才算成功 speech
Powell says more ‘restriction’ is coming, including possibility of hikes at consecutive meetings PUBLISHED WED, JUN 28 20239:48 AM EDTUPDATED 37 MIN AGO
The comments reiterate a position taken by Powell’s fellow policymakers at their June meeting, during which they indicated the likelihood of another half percentage point of increases through the end of 2023. Assuming a quarter point per meeting, that would mean two more hikes. Previous comments from Powell pointed to a possibility of the rises coming at alternate meetings, though he said Wednesday that might not be the case depending on how the data come in. The Fed hiked at each meeting since March 2022, a span that included four straight three-quarter point moves, before taking a break in June. “I wouldn’t take, you know, moving at consecutive meetings off the table,” he said during an exchange moderated by CNBC’s Sara Eisen. The question-and-answer session took place at a forum sponsored by the European Central Bank. Markets took a modest hit as Powell spoke, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 120 points.
Central to the Fed’s current thinking is the belief that the 10 straight rate hikes haven’t had time to work their way through the economy. Therefore, officials can’t be sure whether policy meets the “sufficiently restrictive” standard to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. Most economists think the rate increases ultimately will pull the U.S. into at least a shallow recession. “There’s a significant possibility that there will be a downturn,” Powell said, adding that it’s not “the most likely case, but it’s certainly possible.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-06-28/fed-s-powell-recession-not-the-most-likely-case-for-us-video
BOA CEO说cut spending 有两个解读，一方面可以说inflation控制见效，另外一方面就是进入mild recession。
因为cut spending的是穷人，有钱人该吃吃该喝喝。
请问 既是 significant chance 但又不是 the most likely 到底是什么？
就是可能性更大了吧。
美国的enconmy beating the rest of the world都一百年了，拜登好意思拿这个做自己政绩？
拜登并不认同，哈哈
President Joe Biden has said that the United States economy is "strong now" and he does not expect a recession.
不会是看通胀抑制不住，下月直接加0.5%吧？
可是。。。。。我早就说了啊 。
穷人恒穷， 富人更富。 平行世界的spending不能相比。
因为航空公司cut 航班
现在的情况还是川普乱政的恶果。拜登也确实不是个真心给老百姓想办法的。当然，能在那个位置上的无论古今中外，基本都这样。
用不了20年，3-5年就出水，也有可能更快
anways，老鲍这么说还是需要通胀降温先吓唬一下再说
看来房价还是要z
参考算命先生
有一种东西叫滞胀 了解下先
难道是因为公务出差贵钱才能更好的回流？
good。希望终于能来recession.
美国确实全世界范围内最好。 看看中国，看看欧洲，看看加拿大，都已经什么样了。所以小红书上一堆不在美国的，天天骂美国。
中外各种预测： 中国经济预期增长最低 5%， FYI
欧盟区经济都特么衰退了。
There is no recession. And this is a problem for him. Everything this Mazer faker Sun of a beach said is warn consumers not to spend money and warn banks not to lend money to bring down inflation without further increasing rates. This is a day dreamer. People are not stupid. Everything he said got negative effect on his intention. He should have kept his mouth shut and just go home drink some beer.
June 28, 2023, 11:37 AM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday voiced an optimistic message about the U.S. economy and downplayed the threat of a recession. "The U.S. economy has actually been quite resilient," Powell said in Sentra, Portugal, at a conference organized by the European Central Bank. While acknowledging that a recession is "certainly possible," he said such an outcome is "not the most likely case." "The economy is resilient and still growing, albeit at a modest pace," he added.
“significant probability we get a recession” 跟他说的“a recession is "certainly possible," he said such an outcome is "not the most likely case."”也不抵触。Not the most likely case当然 not most unlikely case。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKqTCFk0JBU
他就规定买股票3个月后卖税率减半，6个月后卖税率再减半，一年后卖税率再减半，把钱吸引到股市不就完了。现在股市这个操性你不消费旅游干什么去。
mostly likely = >50% significant chance 就因人而异了。有些人觉得10%就是significant chance.
他是说衰退有一定的几率， 但是不是最可能发生的， 还是要加息
没用，yellen 算话不作数，包子不会理的
Why people don''''t keep up with news in 1 second?
All 23 of the U.S. banks included in the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test weathered a severe recession scenario while continuing to lend to consumers and corporations, the regulator said Wednesday.
If banks keep lending, a recession is coming and inflation will be down without increasing rates because high price will automatically trigger it without rates increase. If banks don''''t keep lending, inflation will be down and no need to increase rates.
Either way..
June 28, 2023 02:03 PM 4 HOURS AGO
Powell says more rate hikes probably ahead, but recession unlikely
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell said Wednesday the Fed will likely resume interest rate hikes, citing a tight labor market and persistent inflation, but a recession is "not the most likely case."
recession没看到。不就是通胀和印钱吗。
recession这只狼喊了10年8年了，还没来。我才不信呢。
因为航空公司不仅仅cut spending还开源了。
睁眼说瞎话，鲍威尔不是你们川普大总统亲自任命的吗？还赶走了更有能力的Yellen
因为按照时间recession投胎成好汗了，轮回该轮到他了。
前几天这家伙还说美国房市is bottoming 了 真的是精神分裂了 房价这么高 局部地区还深一直在涨 竟然说触底要反弹了
现在好多人恨不的美国赶快崩，股票，就业，房价。可惜啊soft landing的机会挺大让这些人失望了。最多就是个mild recession，该干嘛干嘛了
系统提示：若遇到视频无法播放请点击下方链接
https://www.youtube.com/embed/q9DXtj7ajqY
等等，他是拜登任期连任，连任后才升息，错过最佳升息时候。
美国人对经济悲观，总统宣扬“拜登经济学” 2023年6月29日 09:48 维达库斯瓦拉
华盛顿 — 在2024年竞选连任之前，美国总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）正在试图证明，他的“自下而上和自中而外发展经济”的政策成功抑制了通货膨胀并降低了失业率。 周三（6月28日），拜登在芝加哥发表演讲，宣扬被白宫称为“拜登经济学”（Bidenomics）的经济愿景。拜登总统夸赞说，自从大流行病以来，美国的经济增长是世界主要经济体中最高的。 “我们增加了超过1300万个就业岗位，两年内增加的就业岗位比任何一位总统在四年任期内增加的就业岗位还要多，”他说。“各位，这并非偶然。这就是拜登经济学在起作用。” 他将自己的经济议程总结为三大部分：在美国进行明智的投资；教育并赋予美国工人权力；发展中产阶级，促进竞争，以降低成本并帮助小型企业。 在总统发表讲话之前，他的助手们传扬了“拜登经济学”这个词，强调通货膨胀正在放缓，失业率自今年2月以来一直保持在4%以下。 白宫国家经济委员会主任莱尔·布雷纳德 (Lael Brainard) 在周二的新闻发布会上表示，“目前处于劳动年龄的美国人的在业比例高于15年来的水平。” “虽然我们还有更多工作要做，但通胀已连续11个月下降。” 最近的经济指标让拜登政府有理由充满希望。尽管通胀仍构成挑战，但雇主仍在继续招聘，5月份消费者价格涨幅较上年涨幅放缓。 然而，到目前为止，大多数美国人并不认同拜登政府的乐观态度。最新的益普索（Ipsos）民意调查显示，拜登的支持率保持在40出头。经济仍然是最令人担忧的问题，大多数人对国家的发展方向感到悲观，共和党人一直积极强调这一事实。 “坦率地说，令我感到震惊的是，总统竟大胆说出‘勤劳的家庭正在从他的政策中获得回报’之类的话，”参议院共和党党鞭约翰·图恩（John Thune）本月早些时候表示。 “勤劳的家庭肯定会从总统的政策中收获某些东西，但绝不是回报。” 宣布2024年再次问鼎白宫的前总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）猛烈抨击“拜登经济学”，称其为“高税收、破坏性的监管、严重的通胀、对美国能源的战争、飙升的能源成本、《巴黎气候协定》（Paris Climate Accord）等扼杀就业的全球主义国际协议，以及对中国和其他外国的全面经济投降。这是美国优先与美国垫底的对决。” 经济数据与感知的落差 益普索发言人克里斯·杰克逊（Chris Jackson）表示，经济数据与人们对财务状况的感知有落差，这可能是由于美国人没有将好消息内化。他提到一项调查，衡量了美国人对低失业率和通胀减缓等积极的经济动态与供应链问题和高通胀等坏消息的熟悉程度。 他对美国之音(VOA)说：“坏消息，每个人都会知道。好消息，很少有美国人知道。” “在这样的环境下，当人们不知道有好的事情发生时，很难令人信服地证明你做得很好。” 这样的落差是拜登上路传递自己的经济信息，让美国人相信在他的领导下经济蓬勃发展的部分原因。 拜登的演讲是为期三周的推广活动的一部分，高级官员将前往全国各地，论证总统倡导的立法正在为美国人带来成果。这包括根据基础设施法、美国救助计划以及芯片与科学法案进行的大规模投资，芯片法案为半导体研究、开发、制造和劳动力发展注入了超过520亿美元。 共和党人认为，拜登政府的一些政策成本过高，并导致高通胀。他们表示，2021年以来新增的大部分就业岗位只是从疫情中恢复的就业岗位，而不是创造新的就业岗位。 以总统名字为国家经济愿景命名，这样的决定反映了拜登政府的信心，也就是经济轨迹是向上的，经济不会陷入衰退——至少不会在2024年11月举行总统大选之前衰退。 不过，拜登似乎与这个词保持着一定的距离，他说是媒体创造了这个词。 “我从来没有称它为‘拜登经济学’，”他周三离开白宫前往芝加哥时说。“我不会到处拍胸脯说，‘拜登经济学’。” 上周，美联储首次暂停了18个月来的大力加息行动，但暗示对抗通胀的斗争尚未结束，甚至最早在7月份就有可能进一步加息。 跨越‘里根经济学’ “拜登经济学”还试图将总统和民主党的议程与共和党的议程区分开来，共和党人赞成减税和削减政府支出。 拜登重申了他对前共和党总统罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）降低税率、放松监管和减少政府项目支出的议程的批评。自20世纪80年代推行“里根经济学”（Reaganomics）以来，共和党人一直认为低税率可以提高企业利润，并最终提高所有工人和广大民众的利润——这一理论被称为“下渗经济学”（trickle-down economics）。 拜登说，下渗经济学一次又一次失败，使不平等加剧，就业岗位流向海外，城镇空心化。他补充说，40年来此类政策限制了美国梦，“除了那些高层人士”。 税收政策只是拜登面临强烈反对的领域之一。就在两周前，美国众议院共和党人公布了一系列针对企业和家庭的新税收减免政策，这一提案将逆转拜登在立法上取得的一些胜利。