《明侦》里面，每次何老师听到有人惊慌呼喊的时候， 就会说 “ 不出意外的话。。。应该是出意外了。。。” 那么，这个米国意料之中的意外应该怎么展开, 特别对掌握米国 top 2%的巨额财富的本站闲散人员 （马上有人hei打我脸强调自己是 0.2% 不是2%， 听到LV， 只能是那个包包不能是别的 ） 上下几千个亿的动荡应该怎么play? 下面六月初会发生什么危机，请（强迫）AI 算了一卦，精确到天 May 25, 2023: President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy address the nation separately over network television with regards to the debt ceiling. May 25, 2023: The bond market is shaken by a single $850 million futures trade betting on US default. May 29, 2023: The House of Representatives passes the Budget Control Act of 2023, a Republican bill that immediately raises the debt ceiling by $900 billion and reduces spending by $917 billion. No Democrats voted for it, and it also drew ''no'' votes from 22 Republicans, who deemed it insufficiently tough on spending cuts. June 1, 2023: The Senate passes the Budget Control Act of 2023. June 2, 2023: President Biden signs the Budget Control Act of 2023 into law. S&P 500 Stock Ups and Downs from August 2023 to June 2024 August 2, 2023: S&P 500 down 5.8% September 6, 2023: S&P 500 down 1.9% October 4, 2023: S&P 500 down 0.2% November 1, 2023: S&P 500 up 3.2% December 6, 2023: S&P 500 up 1.8% June 1, 2024: S&P 500 up 2.3% 师母已呆
哇 厉害， 还是比AI 强 这个数据是 根据： 1 .historical events, at the last of the similar scenario, Republicans: 242 Democrats: 193 Independents: 0 2. Right now the right wing of Rep. would not agree on anything so some of the number, at the level of tens would vote no LLM 只能生硬照搬 （其实已经拒绝，现在GPT 都一个比一个圆滑，应该算是我强迫其照搬的） 所以说明 历史不能 repeat just rhyme ？
" S&P 500 Stock Ups and Downs from August 2023 to June 2024 August 2, 2023: S&P 500 down 5.8% September 6, 2023: S&P 500 down 1.9% October 4, 2023: S&P 500 down 0.2% November 1, 2023: S&P 500 up 3.2% December 6, 2023: S&P 500 up 1.8% June 1, 2024: S&P 500 up 2.3% " 这预测的涨跌是 year to date ,还是这个日期当天的涨跌？ 如果是后者，很显然胡说八道了一天也不会中，如果真中其中一半那可以说 AI 可以代替人类了
" S&P 500 Stock Ups and Downs from August 2023 to June 2024 August 2, 2023: S&P 500 down 5.8% September 6, 2023: S&P 500 down 1.9% October 4, 2023: S&P 500 down 0.2% November 1, 2023: S&P 500 up 3.2% December 6, 2023: S&P 500 up 1.8% June 1, 2024: S&P 500 up 2.3% " 这预测的涨跌是 year to date ,还是这个日期当天的涨跌？ 如果是后者，很显然胡说八道了一天也不会中，如果真中其中一半那可以说 AI 可以代替人类了 seekingalpha 发表于 2023-05-15 22:02
那么，这个米国意料之中的意外应该怎么展开, 特别对掌握米国 top 2%的巨额财富的本站闲散人员 （马上有人hei打我脸强调自己是 0.2% 不是2%， 听到LV， 只能是那个包包不能是别的 ）
上下几千个亿的动荡应该怎么play?
下面六月初会发生什么危机，请（强迫）AI 算了一卦，精确到天
May 25, 2023: President Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy address the nation separately over network television with regards to the debt ceiling. May 25, 2023: The bond market is shaken by a single $850 million futures trade betting on US default. May 29, 2023: The House of Representatives passes the Budget Control Act of 2023, a Republican bill that immediately raises the debt ceiling by $900 billion and reduces spending by $917 billion. No Democrats voted for it, and it also drew ''no'' votes from 22 Republicans, who deemed it insufficiently tough on spending cuts. June 1, 2023: The Senate passes the Budget Control Act of 2023. June 2, 2023: President Biden signs the Budget Control Act of 2023 into law.
S&P 500 Stock Ups and Downs from August 2023 to June 2024 August 2, 2023: S&P 500 down 5.8% September 6, 2023: S&P 500 down 1.9% October 4, 2023: S&P 500 down 0.2% November 1, 2023: S&P 500 up 3.2% December 6, 2023: S&P 500 up 1.8% June 1, 2024: S&P 500 up 2.3%
师母已呆
Very interesting.
初衷是 既然 人类从历史中学到的唯一教训，就是人类无法从历史中学到任何教训。
那么， 还有什么比 LLM 更好的模型用旧的政府数据来predict 下一个最大似然（or whatever their bullshit）输出的呢
哇 厉害， 还是比AI 强
这个数据是 根据： 1 .historical events, at the last of the similar scenario, Republicans: 242 Democrats: 193 Independents: 0 2. Right now the right wing of Rep. would not agree on anything so some of the number, at the level of tens would vote no
LLM 只能生硬照搬 （其实已经拒绝，现在GPT 都一个比一个圆滑，应该算是我强迫其照搬的）
所以说明 历史不能 repeat just rhyme ？
" S&P 500 Stock Ups and Downs from August 2023 to June 2024 August 2, 2023: S&P 500 down 5.8% September 6, 2023: S&P 500 down 1.9% October 4, 2023: S&P 500 down 0.2% November 1, 2023: S&P 500 up 3.2% December 6, 2023: S&P 500 up 1.8% June 1, 2024: S&P 500 up 2.3%
" 这预测的涨跌是 year to date ,还是这个日期当天的涨跌？ 如果是后者，很显然胡说八道了一天也不会中，如果真中其中一半那可以说 AI 可以代替人类了
估计就是上次政府关门时候的股市改了个日期。