Nikkei Asia : Analysis: China''s messaging machine tamps down Taiwan war hype - Nikkei Asia China''s fragile economy has dictated that President Xi Jinping find a counter to the effectiveness of wolf-warrior propaganda. His solution? An open internet debate on the Taiwan issue. (Nikkei montage/Kyodo, Getty Images, Reuters)
A remarkable conversation is taking place on the internet in China, where the screws of censorship are tightened every year, squeezing freedom of speech. Suddenly, a ban on an all-sides debate over China unifying Taiwan by force appears to have been lifted.
A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. This is new.
That arguments and headlines espousing this viewpoint have remained on the internet without being deleted by Chinese censors clearly shows that authorities accept the cautious stance. It is safe to say that the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.
The frank internet discussions do not only come ahead of this year''s Group of Seven summit, which begins May 19 in Hiroshima, Japan, but are tied to it. For the sake of "peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," Japan, the U.S. and other G-7 nations are expected to strengthen their cooperation frameworks to prevent China from changing the status quo by force.
South Korea, Australia and India have all been invited to a so-called outreach meeting in Hiroshima. Japan, the U.S., Australia and India will also hold a Quad summit in Sydney on May 24.
As things stand, anonymously written articles that thoroughly reject China''s hawkish "wolf-warrior diplomacy" are being reposted on different portals, with their content slightly changed and the tone of their headlines becoming increasingly strong. They all emphasize the likelihood of China being plunged into a "four-front operation," suggesting the country would be surrounded by enemies on four sides. Another belief is also gaining disciples: Those who shout "Taiwan unification by force" are "stupid." On the first of the four fronts, the Chinese military would face American, Japanese and Taiwanese forces in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas. On the second front, Chinese forces would face off against American and South Korean troops on the Korean Peninsula. On the third, China would square off against American and Australian forces in the South China Sea and South Pacific. If the U.S. side controls the Malacca Strait -- a thin body of water that opens to the Andaman Sea -- and counters China in the South China Sea, Beijing would see its energy supply disrupted and would not be able to keep its economy going. In the South Pacific, Australian troops hold the key.
Finally, Chinese forces would face off against Indian troops on the country''s southwestern border. In 2020, Chinese and Indian forces clashed in this region for the first time in 45 years, resulting in deaths on both sides.
In regard to the third front, rotational deployments of nuclear-powered attack submarines to Australia are planned under the AUKUS security framework with the U.S. and the U.K. Those pushing the four-front theory in China are fully aware of these recent international developments. Chinese forces would surely be spread thin and placed at an obvious disadvantage if forced to fight on all four fronts.
The situation is reminiscent of the ABCD encirclement against Japan before World War II, when the Americans, British, Chinese and Dutch banded together for a series of embargoes that dealt a severe blow. The Chinese Communist Party regards unifying Taiwan as its historical mission and says it will not hesitate to use force against the island if necessary. Yet caution in regard to this mission has been allowed to take hold on China''s internet. Opinions that appear to be inconvenient to China''s leadership, led by President Xi Jinping, have not been taken down. The complicated background that has led to this situation can, at least partly, be traced to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It has been more than a year since his forces failed to quickly occupy Kyiv, Ukraine''s capital, after the Russian military''s full-scale invasion.
A source familiar with party and public opinion in China said Putin has set "a bad example." What if Chinese forces were to fail to quickly take Taipei by force and instead become mired in a Putin-like failure?
Trends in public opinion have also become a major issue within China. Some ordinary Chinese have come to sincerely believe that war will break out over Taiwan in the near future, pitting Chinese forces against formidable U.S. troops.
A Chinese national who lives abroad and owns a company recently returned to his home country for the first time in about three years, after the strict zero-COVID policy was lifted. The entrepreneur was shocked to hear ordinary people, even close friends, whispering to one another that as war is imminent, they must think seriously about what they should do. Wealthy people in China are particularly worried about a decline in the real value of their assets. Condominium prices in China are still on the decline. Those who own multiple properties want to sell and monetize at least one of them and transfer the proceeds out of China, according to the Chinese entrepreneur.
Another proprietor who also temporarily returned to China was earnestly advised by friends -- who believe wolf-warrior propaganda -- to permanently return to China as soon as possible. The friends warned that if war erupted, foreign countries where American troops are stationed, such as South Korea and Japan, would be dangerous, this person said. They believe it is safe to live in China. Despite wolf-warrior diplomats barking about a battle against the U.S., an armed clash is not necessarily in the cards. But partly due to these diplomats'' belligerent remarks, some ordinary Chinese are beginning to think an early unification of Taiwan by force is possible. It is in this context that the voices of concern are growing -- and are being allowed to grow -- louder. Like in any other country, parents in China do not want to send their children to battle. This feeling has spread on Chinese social media, striking a chord among quite a few netizens. While China does not rule out unifying Taiwan by force, its military and security experts know from experience that doing so would be very difficult. Therefore, it became necessary to calm, for now, a groundswell of public opinion inflamed by wolf-warrior propaganda.
If the impression that China is on a war footing continues to strengthen, it would also leave Xi''s leadership team with fewer strategic options. The most important thing for success is to remain vague on whether and when any action might be taken. Unpredictability is of strategic importance. If the impression were to take hold that a war over Taiwan is imminent, it would also put the brakes on foreign companies expanding into China, not to mention trigger an outflow of Chinese assets abroad. The effect on China''s economy would be significant. To dispel this war notion, a certain logical explanation was necessary. Thus the four-front argument has been used effectively, and even proven convenient to President Xi.
日經亞洲（Nikkei Asia）主筆、日經亞洲前中國分社社長中澤克二撰文指出，中國網路正出現引人注目的全新現象，突然之間，關於中國武力統一台灣的各方辯論禁令似乎被解除了。一種不同於目前風向甚至禁忌的觀點已被允許流傳，亦即現在決定強行統一台灣是不切實際的，甚至是危險的。
明顯全盤否定中共戰狼外交的「在當前嚴峻的國際情勢環伺下，武統台灣不切實際與極其危險」、「解放軍軍力將因四線作戰而分散與陷於不利」以及「高喊武統台灣的人是傻子」等論調如雨後春筍般在審查嚴格的中國網路上出現，這些文章不但未遭刪除，當局看似還有意任其發酵，在一定程度上傳播開來，為喊打喊殺的武統台灣論調滅火降溫。
支持這項見解的論點和標題一直留在網路上，沒有被中國審查機構刪除，這清楚表明當局接受了這個謹慎立場。可以肯定地說，中國領導高層打算讓它流傳，至少在一定程度上傳播。這些直白的網路議論不僅恰在今年5月19日在日本廣島舉行的七大工業國集團（G7）峰會之前出現，而且也跟這場峰會息息相關。
為了台灣海峽的和平及穩定，日本、美國和其他G7國家正加強合作框架，以防止中國動用武力改變現狀。一些匿名撰寫、徹底否定中國鷹派「戰狼外交」的文章也正在各大網站上被轉載，內容略有更動，標題調性也越來越強烈。他們都強調中國陷入「四面作戰」的可能性，暗指中國會被四方敵軍包圍。另一種看法也越來越多人相信，即高喊「武統台灣」的人是「傻子」。
所謂四線作戰是指台海、朝鮮半島、南海與中印邊界。該論調稱中國東部戰區極有可能需要同時面臨來自美國、台灣、日本、韓國這四大敵人，承受極大壓力。那些在中國推動「四面作戰」理論的人士，充分意識到最近的國際局勢發展。如果被迫四面作戰，中國軍力肯定會被分散，並處於明顯劣勢。
這4條戰線的第1條，中國軍隊將於台灣海峽和周邊地區面對美國、日本和台灣軍隊。在第2條戰線上，中國部隊將在朝鮮半島對抗美國及韓國軍隊。第3條戰線，中國會在南海和南太平洋迎戰美國和澳洲軍隊。最後的戰線，則是中國軍隊將於國內西南方邊界對抗印度軍隊。
中共把統一台灣視為歷史使命，宣稱有必要會毫不猶豫對台灣動武。不過，對於這項使命的謹慎態度已經默許在中國網路上扎根，因為這些似乎讓中國國家主席習近平為首領導階層為難的言論並未被撤除。造成這個局面的複雜背景至少可追溯到俄羅斯總統普丁（Vladimir Putin）。俄羅斯軍隊去年2月發動全面入侵後，未能迅速占領烏克蘭首都基輔，迄今已有一年多之久。
一位熟悉中國黨政輿論的消息人士表示，普丁設下了「不好的例子」，如果中國軍隊沒能迅速攻下台北，而是陷入類似普丁的失敗該怎麼辦？部分認真思考國家應依循何種路線的中國官僚和軍官認定，目前試圖以武力統一台灣是一場非常危險的賭局。輿論動向也成為中國國內的大問題。有中國民眾開始真的相信，在不久後會為台灣爆發戰爭，中國部隊會對抗強大的美軍。
儘管中國的戰狼外交官揚言要對美國開戰，但武裝衝突並不一定會發生。然而，因為這些外交官的挑釁言論，讓一些普通中國百姓開始認為早日透過武力統一台灣是可能發生的。雖然中國當局不排除用武力統一台灣，但中方的軍事和安全專家從過往經驗深刻明白這麼做會非常困難。因此，有必要暫時平息因戰狼宣傳而激起的輿論熱潮。
如果中國處於備戰狀態的印象持續增強，習近平領導團隊的戰略選項也會減少。若形成台灣戰爭一觸即發的印象，這也會阻礙外國企業向中國擴張，更別說可能造成中國資產外流，這對中國經濟影響將是巨大的。要消除這種戰爭觀念，需要某種合乎邏輯的解釋。因此，「四面作戰」觀點被有效運用，甚至被證明對習近平來說是方便好用的手段。