日經 : 戰狼外交大內宣太過頭,中國正在急轉彎滅火降溫武統可能性

楼主 (北美华人网)
Nikkei Asia : Analysis: China''s messaging machine tamps down Taiwan war hype - Nikkei Asia
China''s fragile economy has dictated that President Xi Jinping find a counter to the effectiveness of wolf-warrior propaganda. His solution? An open internet debate on the Taiwan issue. (Nikkei montage/Kyodo, Getty Images, Reuters)

A remarkable conversation is taking place on the internet in China, where the screws of censorship are tightened every year, squeezing freedom of speech. Suddenly, a ban on an all-sides debate over China unifying Taiwan by force appears to have been lifted.
A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. This is new.
That arguments and headlines espousing this viewpoint have remained on the internet without being deleted by Chinese censors clearly shows that authorities accept the cautious stance. It is safe to say that the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.
The frank internet discussions do not only come ahead of this year''s Group of Seven summit, which begins May 19 in Hiroshima, Japan, but are tied to it. For the sake of "peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," Japan, the U.S. and other G-7 nations are expected to strengthen their cooperation frameworks to prevent China from changing the status quo by force.
South Korea, Australia and India have all been invited to a so-called outreach meeting in Hiroshima. Japan, the U.S., Australia and India will also hold a Quad summit in Sydney on May 24.
As things stand, anonymously written articles that thoroughly reject China''s hawkish "wolf-warrior diplomacy" are being reposted on different portals, with their content slightly changed and the tone of their headlines becoming increasingly strong. They all emphasize the likelihood of China being plunged into a "four-front operation," suggesting the country would be surrounded by enemies on four sides. Another belief is also gaining disciples: Those who shout "Taiwan unification by force" are "stupid." On the first of the four fronts, the Chinese military would face American, Japanese and Taiwanese forces in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas. On the second front, Chinese forces would face off against American and South Korean troops on the Korean Peninsula. On the third, China would square off against American and Australian forces in the South China Sea and South Pacific. If the U.S. side controls the Malacca Strait -- a thin body of water that opens to the Andaman Sea -- and counters China in the South China Sea, Beijing would see its energy supply disrupted and would not be able to keep its economy going. In the South Pacific, Australian troops hold the key.
Finally, Chinese forces would face off against Indian troops on the country''s southwestern border. In 2020, Chinese and Indian forces clashed in this region for the first time in 45 years, resulting in deaths on both sides. Indian soldiers stand in formation at an airbase in Leh, in the Ladakh region near the disputed border with China, in September 2020. In a contingency, the border could be a fourth front for the Chinese military to contend with.  © Reuters Regarding the second front, U.S. and South Korean leaders have agreed that a U.S. Navy nuclear ballistic missile submarine will make a port call in the Asian country. There is a possibility that the port call will happen in the near future.
In regard to the third front, rotational deployments of nuclear-powered attack submarines to Australia are planned under the AUKUS security framework with the U.S. and the U.K. Those pushing the four-front theory in China are fully aware of these recent international developments. Chinese forces would surely be spread thin and placed at an obvious disadvantage if forced to fight on all four fronts.
The situation is reminiscent of the ABCD encirclement against Japan before World War II, when the Americans, British, Chinese and Dutch banded together for a series of embargoes that dealt a severe blow. The Chinese Communist Party regards unifying Taiwan as its historical mission and says it will not hesitate to use force against the island if necessary. Yet caution in regard to this mission has been allowed to take hold on China''s internet. Opinions that appear to be inconvenient to China''s leadership, led by President Xi Jinping, have not been taken down. The complicated background that has led to this situation can, at least partly, be traced to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It has been more than a year since his forces failed to quickly occupy Kyiv, Ukraine''s capital, after the Russian military''s full-scale invasion.
A source familiar with party and public opinion in China said Putin has set "a bad example." What if Chinese forces were to fail to quickly take Taipei by force and instead become mired in a Putin-like failure?
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping leave a reception in Moscow in March. Some say Putin''s war in Ukraine has set a "bad example" for China. © Reuters The fact is some Chinese bureaucrats and military officers who think seriously about the path the country should follow are of the opinion that attempting to unify Taiwan by force right now would be a very dangerous gamble.
Trends in public opinion have also become a major issue within China. Some ordinary Chinese have come to sincerely believe that war will break out over Taiwan in the near future, pitting Chinese forces against formidable U.S. troops.
A Chinese national who lives abroad and owns a company recently returned to his home country for the first time in about three years, after the strict zero-COVID policy was lifted. The entrepreneur was shocked to hear ordinary people, even close friends, whispering to one another that as war is imminent, they must think seriously about what they should do. Wealthy people in China are particularly worried about a decline in the real value of their assets. Condominium prices in China are still on the decline. Those who own multiple properties want to sell and monetize at least one of them and transfer the proceeds out of China, according to the Chinese entrepreneur. The U.S. is expected to dispatch a nuclear ballistic missile submarine to South Korea in a show of force. © Yonhap/Kyodo
Another proprietor who also temporarily returned to China was earnestly advised by friends -- who believe wolf-warrior propaganda -- to permanently return to China as soon as possible. The friends warned that if war erupted, foreign countries where American troops are stationed, such as South Korea and Japan, would be dangerous, this person said. They believe it is safe to live in China. Despite wolf-warrior diplomats barking about a battle against the U.S., an armed clash is not necessarily in the cards. But partly due to these diplomats'' belligerent remarks, some ordinary Chinese are beginning to think an early unification of Taiwan by force is possible. It is in this context that the voices of concern are growing -- and are being allowed to grow -- louder. Like in any other country, parents in China do not want to send their children to battle. This feeling has spread on Chinese social media, striking a chord among quite a few netizens. While China does not rule out unifying Taiwan by force, its military and security experts know from experience that doing so would be very difficult. Therefore, it became necessary to calm, for now, a groundswell of public opinion inflamed by wolf-warrior propaganda.
A military parade in front of Beijing''s Tiananmen Square in 2015: China has refused to rule out unifying Taiwan by force. (Photo by Takaki Kashiwabara)
If the impression that China is on a war footing continues to strengthen, it would also leave Xi''s leadership team with fewer strategic options. The most important thing for success is to remain vague on whether and when any action might be taken. Unpredictability is of strategic importance. If the impression were to take hold that a war over Taiwan is imminent, it would also put the brakes on foreign companies expanding into China, not to mention trigger an outflow of Chinese assets abroad. The effect on China''s economy would be significant. To dispel this war notion, a certain logical explanation was necessary. Thus the four-front argument has been used effectively, and even proven convenient to President Xi.

日經亞洲(Nikkei Asia)主筆、日經亞洲前中國分社社長中澤克二撰文指出,中國網路正出現引人注目的全新現象,突然之間,關於中國武力統一台灣的各方辯論禁令似乎被解除了。一種不同於目前風向甚至禁忌的觀點已被允許流傳,亦即現在決定強行統一台灣是不切實際的,甚至是危險的。
中共把統一台灣視為歷史使命,宣稱有必要會毫不猶豫對台灣動武。不過,對於這項使命的謹慎態度已經默許在中國網路上扎根,因為這些似乎讓中國國家主席習近平為首領導階層為難的言論並未被撤除。造成這個局面的複雜背景至少可追溯到俄羅斯總統普丁(Vladimir Putin)。俄羅斯軍隊去年2月發動全面入侵後,未能迅速占領烏克蘭首都基輔,迄今已有一年多之久。
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治大国如烙大饼 使劲儿翻吧
中国有战狼外交吗? 中国外交就像和绵羊一样 ,只是现在变成公羊 就让一些人 受不了了