“Investor positioning in oil futures increased sharply as speculative flows returned to the oil market, buoyed by the overall risk-on sentiment. The ratio of long to short crude futures holdings by money managers rallied by almost two points to 5.5, surpassing the 4.8 long term average. The increasewas entirely due to Brent, where money manager net long holdings soared by 108 mb to 252 mb –their highest since the invasion, reinforcing the backwardation at the front-end of the Brent curve.“ 为什么net long position增加会”reinforcing the backwardation at the front-end of the Brent curve.‘？
Spec positions are mostly taken at the front or next month contracts. So it is not the net long positions increase across all maturity months, but only concentrated to front contracts.
Spec positions are mostly taken at the front or next month contracts. So it is not the net long positions increase across all maturity months, but only concentrated to front contracts. ImAbendrot 发表于 2023-03-04 12:47
Backwardation is when the current price of an underlying asset is higher than prices trading in the futures market. Backwardation can occur as a result of a higher demand for an asset currently than the contracts maturing in the coming months through the futures market.
为什么net long position增加会”reinforcing the backwardation at the front-end of the Brent curve.‘？
谢谢，这是因为投资者认为Brent会在近期持续上涨，对吗？
是的，增加的long position 集中在近期合同、也就是说近期合同价格上扬，所以 term structure 的 backwardation 加剧