刚刚在Reddit上看到了一个贴子，根据10年期和3个月国债利率的价差来预测经济衰退。 原贴在这里 https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/10ioh96/50_chance_us_recession_occurs_on_or_before_dec/ Over the past 50 years without exception, when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the 10-year treasury yield curve is compared with the 50 Day SMA of the 3-month treasury yield curve and their difference becomes negative (inverts) a recession has occurred. The bell curve is a probability distribution based on data spanning 54 years and across the last eight recessions. On average recessions typically occur 12.18 months from the first day of the 50 day SMA inversion with a standard deviation of 4.61 months.
Now the mkt is not all about interest rate. It's about recession severity.
你自己爱捞就算了，别拉上别人。传统价值股很多PE<5, 科技股PE>20 还 discount?
同意，该出手时就出手，是时候大举进货科技股了
目前市场预测，除了二月加25个基点外，还要再加25或50个基点，目标是5%或5.25%。
看了下亚麻 P/E ratio 89.75，我今晚怕要睡不着觉了
Forward PE。传统价值股，通胀股还有forward PE <1 的。除非大鲍鱼能把 commodity prices 搞下来，但是我看他这个软蛋子不行，光打嘴炮不来真格的。
你没觉得每次逛店东西都贵了一把？通胀搞不下来大鲍鱼 bipolar 一发作只怕还得加息，科技股没前途。
pe 是正的已经很不错了。
原贴在这里 https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/10ioh96/50_chance_us_recession_occurs_on_or_before_dec/
Over the past 50 years without exception, when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the 10-year treasury yield curve is compared with the 50 Day SMA of the 3-month treasury yield curve and their difference becomes negative (inverts) a recession has occurred. The bell curve is a probability distribution based on data spanning 54 years and across the last eight recessions. On average recessions typically occur 12.18 months from the first day of the 50 day SMA inversion with a standard deviation of 4.61 months.
哈哈哈，现在还有人相信这破玩意？早就不是市场经济了。
re, year over year比增长，已经开始往下走了。明年后年跟今年比差不多了。
我不同意说还加一次就结束，但是你这把科技股跟传统股比pe也不靠谱，炒股是炒增长炒未来炒故事，这俩本来就不是一种东西，不能互相比。
像沃克尔一样直接加到18%年利率多好
美元还会涨啊， 人民币继续贬值
垫不垫背不知道，反正今天机构绝对有加码的，它们可没散户的耐心，科技股catch up道指要是没抓住，那可是不行的
今天真的涨了。希望继续，我的股票出水吧。401K 去年惨不忍睹
我的现在还在水下，不卖到话出不出水也没啥
亚麻今天大涨啊还能入吗
Feel Sorry for 亚麻。QQq都有3%up. 明日要是不补涨touch 100，真的是个垃圾
利率还是在高位，房价不会涨