不明白为什么那么多人都assume股市能一直+8%涨下去?

f
fololunsia
楼主 (北美华人网)
前几年那些FIRE的人,现在还好吗?记得几年前FIRE很流行,经常看到有人分享自己的经验,什么投资大盘按每年8%的收益算,一年稳定收入多少多少。。。当年看很多人assume物价不涨,还有股市正常年份的回报率。谁想去年一年,就打破了过去多少年的规律。
爱狐狸的花花
华人上能不能建一个专门讨论股票的版,每次想找帖子都要在鲜花翻很久。
c
craigslist
华人上能不能建一个专门讨论股票的版,每次想找帖子都要在鲜花翻很久。
爱狐狸的花花 发表于 2023-01-21 23:58

有理财&股票版啊
落地无声
虽然Past performance is no guarantee of future results,但是Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1992 to 2021, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.89% (7.31% when adjusted for inflation)
这30年中包括了dot-com bubble,和2008的次贷危机(股市腰斩),还有2020年的疫情
s
shuiyaa
看历史记录,你要纯股市的话不止8%。扣除通胀可能7%左右。最差的30年也平均差不多4%的收益。 fire的话不应该都在股市,因为万一开头几年腰斩膝盖斩,开销不能减,一下子就把本金消耗太多。所以fire越早风险越大。 一般说法要配足够的债券。但前几年债券yield太低,即便现在yield也就2%。所以传说的4%法则并不好用。 现在fire不能全退,风险太大。或者按2%还行
玉骨遥
我兔年目标50%。
c
countryside005
华人上能不能建一个专门讨论股票的版,每次想找帖子都要在鲜花翻很久。
爱狐狸的花花 发表于 2023-01-21 23:58

只有此版人气高。其它版不行。
f
fololunsia
看历史记录,你要纯股市的话不止8%。扣除通胀可能7%左右。最差的30年也平均差不多4%的收益。 fire的话不应该都在股市,因为万一开头几年腰斩膝盖斩,开销不能减,一下子就把本金消耗太多。所以fire越早风险越大。 一般说法要配足够的债券。但前几年债券yield太低,即便现在yield也就2%。所以传说的4%法则并不好用。 现在fire不能全退,风险太大。或者按2%还行
shuiyaa 发表于 2023-01-22 00:25

最差的30年 什么时候
落地无声
最差的30年 什么时候
fololunsia 发表于 2023-01-23 19:21

The past decade has been great for stocks. From 2012 through 2021, the average stock market return was 14.8% annually for the S&P 500 index(SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). The returns can -- and do -- vary wildly from one year to the next, and an "average" year almost never actually generates the average return.  It's worth highlighting the variance in annual returns from one year to the next versus the average. Since 1972, here is a breakdown of the yearly results: Returns of 20% or more: 19 years Returns between 10% and 20%: 13 years Returns between 0% and 10%: nine years Losses between 0% and 10%: four years Losses between 10% and 20%: two years Losses of more than 20%: three years Buy-and-hold investing If there's any one lesson we can take from the breakdown of annual results versus the average, it's that investors are far more likely to earn the best returns by investing for the long term. There's simply no reliably accurate way to predict which years will be the good years and which years will underperform or even lead to losses. But we do know that, historically, the stock market has gone up more years than it has gone down. The S&P 500 gained value in 40 of the past 50 years, generating an average annualized return of 9.4%. Despite that, only a handful of years actually came within a few percentage points of the actual average. Far more years significantly either underperformed or outperformed the average than were close to the average.
落地无声
Stock market returns between 1960 and 2022 If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 1960, you would have about $38,905.10 at the end of 2022, assuming you reinvested all dividends. This is a return on investment of 38,805.10%, or 9.96% per year.

The historical average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.356% over the last 100 years, as of end of November 2022. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Dividends account for about 40% of the total gain over this period. Adjusted for inflation, the 100-year average return (including dividends) is 7.223%.
b
bibihulu
因为通胀 股市指数里的个股是会变的,差的会被换掉。
Y
YSYNG
如果明年通货膨胀6% 股市平均每年回报8-9% 真不够多。