历史是未来最好的指南 我对黄俄MAGA智商又很深入的研究，你放心，它们排队集中营焚尸炉时候，都不会醒悟的。带时候估计还是再骂Biden或者pelosi history always repeats itself and each generation the majority of the normies are sheer stupid. Has been, and always will be.
回复 1楼supersleeper的帖子 the stupidest article I''ve read, something wrong with your brain! mdhe 发表于 2022-10-29 15:27
One observation Except for various types of personal attacks, I have yet seen any substantial rebuttal with facts and coherent logic chains to argue against the facts I listed and logical deduction I presented. NOT A SINGLE ONE So yeah the more this type of useless information less personal attack I see here the more convinced of my viewpoints. After all you have to admit the majority of the normies are sheer stupid. As evidenced by the mass cognitive dissonance of the ongoing SARS2 pandemic and the rise of facism in somewhat similar fashion.
You know when I know my viewpoint is probably not correct? When majority of the ignorant normies are nodding in unison
Tell that to the German Jews. Weimar republic was a stronger democracy than the U.S. system and yet still nazis who got 30% of the vote took over the complete power. Same as here now, 30% are hardcore MAGAs
Tell that to the German Jews. Weimar republic was a stronger democracy than the U.S. system and yet still nazis who got 30% of the vote took over the complete power. Same as here now, 30% are hardcore MAGAs
You are correct on the technicalities. But that doesn’t change my general claim. A mature democracy like the Weimar Republic can be taken over completely by the nazi regime in a few years, “legally”. That should be the most scary part and very relevant to the current situation. Nazi party got about 30% of the vote in 1933. Hardcore MAGAs are about 30% of the population. Seems all the pieces are in place now. on the same token you can say in the US it was never a direct election, the presidency was once appointed by the SCOTUS in 2000. They may as well do it again in 2014 based on the “independent legislature theory” the MAGA court will rule pretty soon, essentially rendering the presidential election votes meaningless. what the nazis failed to achieve on Jan 6, they will achieve it “legally “ in the next attempt in 2024
You are correct on the technicalities. But that doesn’t change my general claim. A mature democracy like the Weimar Republic can be taken over completely by the nazi regime in a few years, “legally”. That should be the most scary part and very relevant to the current situation. Nazi party got about 30% of the vote in 1933. Hardcore MAGAs are about 30% of the population. Seems all the pieces are in place now. on the same token you can say in the US it was never a direct election, the presidency was once appointed by the SCOTUS in 2000. They may as well do it again in 2014 based on the “independent legislature theory” the MAGA court will rule pretty soon, essentially rendering the presidential election votes meaningless. what the nazis failed to achieve on Jan 6, they will achieve it “legally “ in the next attempt in 2024 supersleeper 发表于 2022-10-30 01:57
Yep I’m probably the only one on this forum who have the ability to predict how thing will turn out based on keen observations and deep understanding of history and human nature. check my record. My predictions always turn out correct. which part you don’t understand the ability to see how things will develop is a skill that few process. I despise those who simply copy news article here without any original analysis and predictions. That’s called a copying machine or we can call them bots And yes you can call me cocky or arrogant because it’s true. And tell you what, so far I have not seen anyone who are at my level of understanding the bigger picture. And yes I can prove with my career, and my bank account.
The parliamentary system is well matured at that point in time. Wermar republic constitution is not unique among other European powers at that time. Also I’m not so optimistic on the institutions. Yes I’m 2021, those institutions more or less held the line , that’s why Jan 6 coup failed. Also many people in power inside the GOP were not certain MAGA will succeed the Jan 6 coup, for example Pence and Barr, even McConnell. So they didn’t go along with the coup. But there were many signs of cracks in the system. Check the secret service’s behavior that day and the DOD holding off the national guard. So after Jan 6, if you follow closely the talks the MAGA strategists were giving, it’s very clear the first thing they will do is to push through the “civil service purging act”. They will cleanse career bureaucrats from federal institutions and install MAGA loyalists. if you are interested in those details, I can write another essay on this particular topic. On what the MAGA plan is on tearing down the administrative state, as in Bannnon’s words. when that is carried out successfully, they will respect the constitution the same way as they respect the Bible. You know what I mean by that.
One more point to your point on local GOP election officials. I know you we’re talking about that sec of state in GA and AZ and many county clerks. if you follow the news closely since 2021, you will know many of those GOP county clerks and sec of states have been purged out of the GOP by the MAGA loyalists.
google the recent statements by MAGA sec of states candidates for AZ NV WI MI PA etc. check what they have said. They are not even hiding it now, stating on record publicly that they will cancel all the votes of their states voters if the MAGA candidates don’t win in future elections.
Also don’t rely on the fact the US system has survived the past 200 plus years thus it will also survive this time. many unique aspects in our current times. Just name a few 1. The main topic of this post: the threats of social media and Fox News alikes on the ignorant masses. 2. No major political party no matter GOP or democrats has ever in post civil war history been so adamant on tearing down the democratic system like the current MAGA party. so my assessment is very pessimistic. US system will not survive this time under the assault of the MAGA party. And it will be a really ugly end
这个先讲讲历史，尤其是我最喜欢研究的德国纳粹史。版上仔细研究过德国纳粹历史的人，都知道纳粹和希特勒之所以能够从一个边缘小党，通过exploit德国民主选举制度夺权，到最后完全控制德国政治取消民主完全独裁，对德国和世界产生了史无前例的伤害和杀戮，这个一个重要的原因是因为一个人Joseph Goebbels中文翻译戈贝尔。不知道他历史的，自己看看你wiki和google，这里我就节选一下他的中哟啊语录： 关于谎言重复一万次就是真理： “Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it.” ― Joseph Goebbels “You can’t change the masses. They will always be the same: dumb, gluttonous and forgetful.” ― Joseph Goebbels “It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.” ― Joseph Goebbels “The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.” ― Joseph Goebbels “We shall go down in history as the greatest statesmen of all time,or as the greatest criminals” ― Joseph Goebbels 关于妇女的地位： “The mission of women is to be beautiful and to bring children into the world.” ― Joseph Goebbels 其他很多关于种族灭绝的他的语录就补贴了。 1.2 讲讲我们目前时代的big lie 我就想说一下，这些话是不是很熟悉。谎言重复10000此就是真理，”make the lie simple, make the lie big, keep saying it”，这个历史上屡试不爽的东西，在我们眼前正在上演。 Qanon的各种离奇的阴谋论，2016年大选攻击希拉里的pizza 门，邮件门，5G芯片疫苗，蜥蜴人，deep state，Hunter laptop等等各种lie不可谓不big，不离奇，不匪夷所思。但是呢，越是离奇，越是匪夷所思，越能触动它们target audience的脑回路。 到了2020年大选，更进一步，big lie，明明在选举人票制度，参议院制度和极端gerrymandering制度下，MAGA共和党已经在大选里有了先天的优势： 总统：popular votes民主党要比共和党领先几百万张选票才能在electoral college制度下打平手，2016年希拉里比Trump多了millions of votes，可是trump的electoral college vote大胜。 参议院：Wyoming，几十万人有2个参议员。加州，4000万人，也是2个参议员。加州这两个参议员代表的选民人数，比MAGA共和党22各州44个参议员代表的选民人数还多。 这届国会参议院： https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/12/us-senate-system-white-conservative-minority 民主党议员，共50人，代表选民数量：185 Million 共和党议员，共50人，代表选民数量：143 Million 众议院：只要去google gerrymandering，就知道众议院选举里面，MAGA共和党从制度上保证它们永远能赢。 所以，很明显选举制度从根本上是有利于MAGA共和党的，这也是解释了为什么它们完全不能接受2020大选的压倒性结果，解释了为什么在MAGA共和党支持着里面，”election fraud”这个big lie能够有市场，MAGA共和党受众都清楚：”我已经把这个选举制度exploit成这样了，稳赢的，为什么还是输了“ 然后呢，make the lie big, make the lie bold, repeat it 10000 times， 就成了目前这个贼还捉贼的情况；什么1000 mules这种荒唐挑战智商底线的东西也被大肆宣扬重复。事实是：MAGA党才是最大的从选举制度系统上滥用的最大的election fraud；哪怕系统性的制度上fraud还不够，还怂恿其热衷分子肉身去多次投票搞election fraud；目前抓到定罪的election fraud，基本全部是MAGA支持者犯的，我随便google 几个被抓住的voter fraud全部是MAGA分子： https://www.dailycommercial.com/story/news/local/clermont/2020/03/05/woman-arrested-in-voter-fraud-investigation/1579337007/ https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/01/06/4th-resident-of-the-villages-charged-with-voter-fraud/ https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-government-and-politics-d34effeea6c341d6c44146931127caff 1.3 Twitter这类基于算法的社交媒体到底是个什么 先说说历史，founding fathers在讨论宪法第一修正案时候，那时候给你言论绝对的自由，你的言论可以被多少人听到，传播呢？你顶多在public square上面站到soap box上面大声疾呼你的观点，假想一下1700年代，一个人宣传蜥蜴人，pizza门这种lie，估计没有几个人会有兴趣听他胡扯。任何可以广泛传播的主流观点，都是经过所谓”精英媒体“过滤过的，保证这个观点不会太极端，至少有基本的真实性。所以，Goebbels当时在德国纳粹的策略就是，控制大的”经营“媒体，从威逼到利诱，达到其big lie宣传的目的
fast forward到2010年后的社交媒体web 2.0时代。这个时代，various kinds of recommendation systems will amplify the most extreme and eye catching posts taylored to your taste，这个也是解释了为什么tik tok这种算法这么的上瘾，具体system design是这样的：（作为码农architect我忍不住从技术角度解释一下）: Iteration 1：算法怎么identify 热门post：根据点赞数和浏览停留时间。这样同时抓住了喜欢的，和虽然不喜欢但是还是被视频或者post吸引的人。同时算法也记录了每个id对每个post的喜欢还是反感。这个阶段，越是夸张的post，越是可能吸引眼球和点赞 Iteration 2：对每一个新用户，系统随机从热门post里面推荐给你看，同时记录点赞评论行为和如果没有点赞，浏览时间。根据这两个参数继续优化给你推荐的post的类别，如果你对某热门post点赞，下次就推荐给它类似的post（怎么知道类似呢？看看其他用户点赞这个post的还关注或者点赞了其他什么post） Iteration 3： 如此重复，以后给你推荐的就基本上是你”喜好“的那类型热门帖子，同时随机给你推荐一些新帖子，通过你的反应来判断帖子类别和受欢迎程度 这只是个及其简化的版本，其他很多其他参数比如你follow谁了他又follow谁了，我这都没提，但是效果类似。如此这般之后，算法发生了收敛，产生了这个结果： 1. 大量给你推送类似观点类似主题的大量post 2. 你会觉得世界上有这么多人和你的观点喜好类似 1+2 就形成了一个巨大的所谓echo chamber，客观结果是放大了极端言论，big lie的影响力，能迅速让边缘极端人物成为“网红”。并且加强了其可信度（“你看别人都说有election fraud，那肯定有！”） 这个，恐怕是几百年之前写宪法时候，甚至几年前都不可想到的事情。这个过程，也极大的削弱了“主流精英媒体”的reach-ability和credibility ，更进一步造成了人群之中形成多个echo chamber极端化，而对基本common sense的公式都产生怀疑（比如election fraud）
1.4 Musk为什么要“赔钱”去控制Twitter 所以Twitter这种社交媒体，尤其是Twitter本身已经成为实质上的全球可达的（中国朝鲜除外）public square。 你问Musk和它的伙计们（包括沙特碎尸王子，普金白手套公司，中国币圈第一人等等，集合了神棍国家，俄国和中国三大反民主联盟中坚力量），为什么要”赔钱“去控制Twitter，就知道这个生意一定有得赚，因为复习下Goebbels的话，就知道Twitter就是当时的柏林邮报。 不要被所谓的”言论自由“障眼法迷惑，对付这种人都是观其行而不信其言，看看Musk怎么对付反对他的人的，从法庭封口令到雇佣黑帮上门威胁。 ”言论自由“只是个幌子，是用来合理化更多更猛烈的big lies，以帮助MAGA党彻底控制美国永远终止民主制度，到那时候，你就只有夸他的自由了，比如哦朝鲜和某国一样。Goebbels当年如果有Twitter，恐怕梦里都要笑醒了，那世界格局也很可能和the man in the high castle里面说的一样的 从Twitter今天被Musk控制，到美国民主制度的最后崩溃，时日不多了，各位且行且珍惜。 下次再仔细说说big lie纵横之后，对美国华人的切实安全威胁。提示一下：关注下今天发生的MAGA恐怖分子在网上被洗脑去议长家里找Pelosi不在家结果把她丈夫用斧头砸伤的事情。政治暴力开始了，完美重演了纳粹brown shirts暴力殴打政治反对者的历史。 supersleeper 发表于 2022-10-28 15:25
哈哈 看来是我预测的太准了 或者是真相太可怕了 才发的part 3就给挪到冷宫让闭嘴了 musk控制Twitter后48小时内发生的 Part 3 https://m.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2858961&postid=95111361#95111361
Also don’t rely on the fact the US system has survived the past 200 plus years thus it will also survive this time. many unique aspects in our current times. Just name a few 1. The main topic of this post: the threats of social media and Fox News alikes on the ignorant masses. 2. No major political party no matter GOP or democrats has ever in post civil war history been so adamant on tearing down the democratic system like the current MAGA party. so my assessment is very pessimistic. US system will not survive this time under the assault of the MAGA party. And it will be a really ugly end supersleeper 发表于 2022-10-30 02:38
民主党大喇叭你来了
你当初造谣Trump给家人一笔生意赚几十亿的屎还没擦呢
德国 国家电视台 联盟 都是国有
德国不管你有没有电视， 看不看电视，
每个人强制 广播电视费，
就是支持 国家媒体
号称 媒体中立
对的，戈贝尔这个牛人确实是一句话说的很明白，我也贴了你看不懂英文吗？
难道几十年前实施种族隔离，打压犹太人的时候只有共和党没有民主党吗？从奥巴马时期支持的激进政策造成是造成今天分裂的罪魁祸首
黄左做了什么对华裔有好处的事情？号召把抠把工作机会学习机会让给黑人吗？
难道不是民主党一直push去多花钱吗? Covid的期间，是民主党不断要多发钱，一而再再一而三，这不就是前两年的事儿吗？怎么现在都快到川普共和党头上？
I write in whatever’s way I like. Tot my freedom
you can choose to read or not to read. Totally your freedom
then gtfo
你这说反了吧，不是民主党民主党一直说发的不够不够，加州纽约还再多给。 川普敢不发钱？川普少花钱都让人抱得够呛，你们都不记得了？
你说世界上哪个国家男女平等？
大量针对亚裔的种族言论，你哪里得出来的“大量”？几个有名的，针对亚裔的种族言论好像发生在奥巴马时期的吗？
the stupidest article I've read, something wrong with your brain!
我也完全认同他的担忧是不无道理的。很多人不见得不认同，只是还没到时候。
到了时候，大家不难明白，只怕就来不及了。
我希望不会走到那一步。
证明了以后就怕已经积重难返啊。
但现在反正我们普通个人也做不了啥，静观其变吧。
复习下德国历史
你以为你掌握真相？呵呵。问问当时德国选民是如何把纳粹党选上台的。当然，后来发现被骗时候已经晚了，纳粹党上台之后很快就没有选举了
历史是未来最好的指南
我对黄俄MAGA智商又很深入的研究，你放心，它们排队集中营焚尸炉时候，都不会醒悟的。带时候估计还是再骂Biden或者pelosi
history always repeats itself and each generation the majority of the normies are sheer stupid. Has been, and always will be.
One observation
Except for various types of personal attacks, I have yet seen any substantial rebuttal with facts and coherent logic chains to argue against the facts I listed and logical deduction I presented.
NOT A SINGLE ONE
So yeah the more this type of useless information less personal attack I see here the more convinced of my viewpoints. After all you have to admit the majority of the normies are sheer stupid. As evidenced by the mass cognitive dissonance of the ongoing SARS2 pandemic and the rise of facism in somewhat similar fashion.
You know when I know my viewpoint is probably not correct? When majority of the ignorant normies are nodding in unison
LZ不是一个人，我身边的本地同事对三个Kanye （他称川普为White Kanye) 的联合也忧心重重。说是三人都有些极端，最主要的是都有相当的财力影响力和政治抱负。
我认为作为中间派的普通人发声本身也是一种力量的平衡。
你在哪里看到musk这个首富是左派了？which policy?
He’s not even pretending now why are you still putting that label on him
他也没说错呀。
民主制度有很强的自我纠错能力，而且不需要人为干涉
不知道是什么样记忆的脑子，能觉得楼主说得有道理。
对不站在左左队伍里的，他们除了人身攻击，也没有其他办法了！
Tell that to the German Jews. Weimar republic was a stronger democracy than the U.S. system and yet still nazis who got 30% of the vote took over the complete power. Same as here now, 30% are hardcore MAGAs
希特勒不是民选上台的，是总统任命的总理。
You are correct on the technicalities. But that doesn’t change my general claim. A mature democracy like the Weimar Republic can be taken over completely by the nazi regime in a few years, “legally”. That should be the most scary part and very relevant to the current situation. Nazi party got about 30% of the vote in 1933. Hardcore MAGAs are about 30% of the population. Seems all the pieces are in place now.
on the same token you can say in the US it was never a direct election, the presidency was once appointed by the SCOTUS in 2000. They may as well do it again in 2014 based on the “independent legislature theory” the MAGA court will rule pretty soon, essentially rendering the presidential election votes meaningless.
what the nazis failed to achieve on Jan 6, they will achieve it “legally “ in the next attempt in 2024
魏玛共和国是在一次大战后德皇退位后建立的， 到希特勒上台一共只有14年历史，怎么可能是matured? 更何况德国的民主是战败后外界强加的，魏玛宪法本来就还没有深入人心。
美国不一样，效忠的对象不是总统，不是国家，而是宪法，是所有人从小就根深蒂固的思想。 2020年选举时已经发生过了，许许多多的GOP地方选举官员，还有军队将领，都对川普的政变说不。 不觉得2022，2024会有大的改变。
Yep I’m probably the only one on this forum who have the ability to predict how thing will turn out based on keen observations and deep understanding of history and human nature.
check my record. My predictions always turn out correct.
which part you don’t understand the ability to see how things will develop is a skill that few process.
I despise those who simply copy news article here without any original analysis and predictions. That’s called a copying machine or we can call them bots
And yes you can call me cocky or arrogant because it’s true. And tell you what, so far I have not seen anyone who are at my level of understanding the bigger picture. And yes I can prove with my career, and my bank account.
The parliamentary system is well matured at that point in time. Wermar republic constitution is not unique among other European powers at that time.
Also I’m not so optimistic on the institutions. Yes I’m 2021, those institutions more or less held the line , that’s why Jan 6 coup failed. Also many people in power inside the GOP were not certain MAGA will succeed the Jan 6 coup, for example Pence and Barr, even McConnell. So they didn’t go along with the coup.
But there were many signs of cracks in the system. Check the secret service’s behavior that day and the DOD holding off the national guard. So after Jan 6, if you follow closely the talks the MAGA strategists were giving, it’s very clear the first thing they will do is to push through the “civil service purging act”. They will cleanse career bureaucrats from federal institutions and install MAGA loyalists.
if you are interested in those details, I can write another essay on this particular topic. On what the MAGA plan is on tearing down the administrative state, as in Bannnon’s words.
when that is carried out successfully, they will respect the constitution the same way as they respect the Bible. You know what I mean by that.
One more point to your point on local GOP election officials. I know you we’re talking about that sec of state in GA and AZ and many county clerks.
if you follow the news closely since 2021, you will know many of those GOP county clerks and sec of states have been purged out of the GOP by the MAGA loyalists.
google the recent statements by MAGA sec of states candidates for AZ NV WI MI PA etc. check what they have said. They are not even hiding it now, stating on record publicly that they will cancel all the votes of their states voters if the MAGA candidates don’t win in future elections.
Also don’t rely on the fact the US system has survived the past 200 plus years thus it will also survive this time.
many unique aspects in our current times. Just name a few
1. The main topic of this post: the threats of social media and Fox News alikes on the ignorant masses.
2. No major political party no matter GOP or democrats has ever in post civil war history been so adamant on tearing down the democratic system like the current MAGA party.
so my assessment is very pessimistic. US system will not survive this time under the assault of the MAGA party. And it will be a really ugly end
哈哈 看来是我预测的太准了 或者是真相太可怕了
才发的part 3就给挪到冷宫让闭嘴了
musk控制Twitter后48小时内发生的 Part 3
https://m.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2858961&postid=95111361#95111361
会是什么样的ugly end?
民主党起码 福利 比共和党好些吧?
共和党 提出过福利吗