Q ‘No such thing as hedging’: how managing risk creates more The UK pension fund blow-up is not the first time an attempt to manage risk has inadvertently created more risk. “没有对冲之类的东西”：管理风险如何创造更多 英国养老基金的爆炸并不是第一次试图管理风险无意中创造了更多的风险。 https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/no-such-thing-as-hedging-how-managing-risk-creates-more-20221012-p5bpci In 2009, the near 30 per cent gain in the Australian dollar in effect created a $2 billion margin call, draining the insurer’s capital. “The hedges did not hedge risk, they simply transferred a balance sheet risk into a nastier cash-flow/liquidity risk,” the Bronte Capital manager wrote. 2009 年，澳元近 30% 的升值实际上催生了 20 亿美元的追加保证金，耗尽了保险公司的资本。 “对冲没有对冲风险，它们只是将资产负债表风险转化为更严重的现金流/流动性风险，”勃朗特资本经理写道。 UQ " 残酷的追加保证金 - 它披露其单日就面临 17.5 亿欧元（26 亿元）的追加保证金通知。"
Q Bond market claims its first prime minister Spendthrift politicians have been forced to bend the knee at the altar of their frugal financiers, with more capitulations likely. Oct 21, 2022 – 12.43pm The bond market’s iconic rolling of British prime minister Liz Truss is a breathtaking demonstration of the power creditors ultimately have over borrowers who are reliant on the goodwill of their financiers. We are likely to see many more examples of the disciplining influence of debt markets in the next year or two as radically higher interest rates precipitate defaults, “restructurings” (to avoid defaults) and far-reaching changes in underlying borrower behaviour. https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/bond-market-claims-its-first-prime-minister-20221018-p5bqul Liquidity for all but the very strongest borrowers could disappear or become severely impaired as we have seen in past cycles in 2002, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020. Every single shock since the “tech wreck” in the early 2000s has involved central banks buying bonds to keep a lid on yields and maintain liquidity. The highest inflation rates in 40 years, which have been partly fuelled by excessive central bank stimulus, effectively take this quantitative easing (aka bond buying) option off the table. UQ
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/no-such-thing-as-hedging-how-managing-risk-creates-more-20221012-p5bpci
In 2009, the near 30 per cent gain in the Australian dollar in effect created a $2 billion margin call, draining the insurer’s capital. “The hedges did not hedge risk, they simply transferred a balance sheet risk into a nastier cash-flow/liquidity risk,” the Bronte Capital manager wrote. 2009 年，澳元近 30% 的升值实际上催生了 20 亿美元的追加保证金，耗尽了保险公司的资本。 “对冲没有对冲风险，它们只是将资产负债表风险转化为更严重的现金流/流动性风险，”勃朗特资本经理写道。 UQ
英国2/3 pension funds暴雷，是pension funds自2015年开始采用ldi手法strategies，太激进了，继而引起美国这边大盘和债券市场大跌，估计都觉得世界所有的央行都一边印钱，所有的政府都能一边risk free地花钱，反正利息超低，没钱了借呗，想不到covid的大撒钱，之后的俄乌战争对timelines的误判，活生生把焦头烂额演绎的焦得不能再焦了🙄🙄。
美国pension funds， ssa当局有没有用ldi的不好说，感觉也有，人类寿命增加，靠保守的investment strategies，就算每年太太平平地无病无战争，也没法填补支出不平衡的大窟窿，更不要说出点什么大疫情www3了。。401k里推荐的balanced portfolio 8020, 7030, 6040啥的估计也够呛，liquidity crisis一旦从大盘equity market延升到债券，打击面积会非常广。。不过市场也不是真的没有liquidity, 只是不得不暂时去一个方向，总会回来的，所以，实在搞不懂的话，躺平也是一种hedging strategy了，
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2022_10_20_663034.shtml 英国债券市场动荡事件后，美国官员自问：会不会发生在我们这？ UQ
Bond market claims its first prime minister Spendthrift politicians have been forced to bend the knee at the altar of their frugal financiers, with more capitulations likely.
Oct 21, 2022 – 12.43pm
The bond market’s iconic rolling of British prime minister Liz Truss is a breathtaking demonstration of the power creditors ultimately have over borrowers who are reliant on the goodwill of their financiers. We are likely to see many more examples of the disciplining influence of debt markets in the next year or two as radically higher interest rates precipitate defaults, “restructurings” (to avoid defaults) and far-reaching changes in underlying borrower behaviour.
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/bond-market-claims-its-first-prime-minister-20221018-p5bqul
Liquidity for all but the very strongest borrowers could disappear or become severely impaired as we have seen in past cycles in 2002, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2020. Every single shock since the “tech wreck” in the early 2000s has involved central banks buying bonds to keep a lid on yields and maintain liquidity. The highest inflation rates in 40 years, which have been partly fuelled by excessive central bank stimulus, effectively take this quantitative easing (aka bond buying) option off the table. UQ