https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent 他认为西方不愿意接受Kosovo结果，分裂乌克兰。 他认为俄国不愿意接受越南结果，完全失败 这样双方只能不断升级。 We are currently in a vicious circle in the form of a self-perpetuating escalation spiral: since "Kosovo" is deemed unacceptable by Ukraine and the West while "Vietnam" is deemed unacceptable by Russia, both sides double down and escalate further whenever they fear losing. Such escalation has been both quantitative (more weapons, more mobilization) and qualitative (e.g., novel sanctions, heavier weapons, longer-range weapons, attacks inside Russia, scaled-up attacks on civilian infrastructure, shelling of a nuclear power plant, assassinations, sabotage of gas pipelines and Europe's longest bridge, annexations, and escalatory rhetoric about nuclear use). My assessment is that Russia, whose GDP is similar to Italy's, can no longer compete with the West in terms of quantitative escalation, and that Putin understands that his only chance to avoid the "Vietnam" outcome is to escalate qualitatively, with nuclear weapons use being his last resort. Last spring, I predicted that once loss of occupied territory loomed, he would annex what he controlled and start talking about nuclear defense of Russia's new borders – and here we are.
他认为西方不愿意接受Kosovo结果，分裂乌克兰。 他认为俄国不愿意接受越南结果，完全失败 这样双方只能不断升级。
We are currently in a vicious circle in the form of a self-perpetuating escalation spiral: since "Kosovo" is deemed unacceptable by Ukraine and the West while "Vietnam" is deemed unacceptable by Russia, both sides double down and escalate further whenever they fear losing. Such escalation has been both quantitative (more weapons, more mobilization) and qualitative (e.g., novel sanctions, heavier weapons, longer-range weapons, attacks inside Russia, scaled-up attacks on civilian infrastructure, shelling of a nuclear power plant, assassinations, sabotage of gas pipelines and Europe's longest bridge, annexations, and escalatory rhetoric about nuclear use). My assessment is that Russia, whose GDP is similar to Italy's, can no longer compete with the West in terms of quantitative escalation, and that Putin understands that his only chance to avoid the "Vietnam" outcome is to escalate qualitatively, with nuclear weapons use being his last resort. Last spring, I predicted that once loss of occupied territory loomed, he would annex what he controlled and start talking about nuclear defense of Russia's new borders – and here we are.
目前看，美国觉得避免核战并不是最重要的，所以核战也是能接受的。政府，媒体，老百姓好像也愿意接受。
昨天好像cbs新闻，我一般看cbs，有个预测5%
要不怎么说拜登这个呆子破坏力很大呢。 正常的大国是会互相妥协的， 看看古巴导弹危机是怎么处理的，就是美苏互相妥协的结果， 要不当时就互扔核弹了。
北约不这么无耻， 俄乌战争根本打不起来。
我的预测是 2.71828%.
二战的时候英法把苏台德割给了纳粹，国联把满洲国割给了日本，倒是都妥协了，所以德日就心满意足不继续侵略了？
俄国2014年吞了克里米亚，也妥协了，还签了协议，2022 年就要把乌克兰灭国，后来打不下去了才说要乌东四州，你觉得妥协了他的贪欲就克制住了？
你太愚昧了， 被西方彻底洗脑了。 德日侵略了几个国家？ 俄罗斯侵略了几个国家？ 你会数数不？
愚昧的人思考都只用大脚趾吗？