美国的情报确实准确的判断了俄罗斯要开战，而且是重大战略打击“shock and awe”，而且情报界已经渗透到俄罗斯军方各个领域。 但也有判断失误或者和战争实际走向不一致的地方，比如： 美国的情报判断是：俄军从北边主攻，两侧包围袭击基辅，采取“闪电战”三到四天内攻占基辅。攻击将在适合坦克作战的冬季进行。特种部队将在开战第一时间暗杀泽连斯基并建立一个亲俄政府。
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/16/ukraine-road-to-war-takeaways/ 1. The United States intelligence community penetrated multiple points of Russia’s political leadership, spying apparatus and military, and found Vladimir Putin preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the Oval Office in October 2021, President Biden’s top advisers presented him with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war plans for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies had used satellite imagery, intercepted communications and human sources to show that Putin was massing troops along Ukraine’s border with the aim of seizing the capital, Kyiv, and much of the country, leaving only a rump Ukrainian state in the west. The United States had discovered Putin sharply increasing funding for military operations while leaving his pandemic response underfunded. “We assess that they plan to conduct a significant strategic attack on Ukraine from multiple directions simultaneously,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Biden. “Their version of ‘shock and awe.’ ” 2. Every decision on arming Ukraine was predicated on not giving Russia a reason to attack the United States and NATO. Biden was determined to rally NATO allies in the face of the impending invasion without provoking a direct conflict between Russia and the United States. Milley carried note cards in his briefcase encapsulating the U.S. interests and strategic objectives, as well as the high stakes. “Problem: ‘How do you underwrite and enforce the rules-based international order’ against a country with extraordinary nuclear capability, ‘without going to World War III?’ ” Every decision on arming Ukraine was predicated on not giving Russia a reason to escalate, often to the frustration of Ukrainian officials, who pressed the United States to send increasing numbers of more powerful weapons, even as they publicly doubted that the invasion would happen. “I make no apologies for the fact that one of our objectives here is to avoid direct conflict with Russia,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser. 3. Biden dispatched his top intelligence official to confront Putin with evidence of Russia’s war planning. Biden sent CIA Director William J. Burns to Moscow to deliver Putin a message: We know what you’re up to, and if you invade, there will be severe consequences. Burns delivered a personal letter from Biden, and he spoke to Putin by phone from an office in the Kremlin. The Russian leader had decamped to the resort city of Sochi during a coronavirus wave that placed Moscow under lockdown. Putin, in a now familiar diatribe, complained about NATO expansion and the illegitimacy of Ukraine’s government. “He was very dismissive of President [Volodymyr] Zelensky as a political leader,” recalled Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. Burns concluded that Putin had not made an irreversible decision to invade. But, he reported back to Biden after the phone call, “my level of concern has gone up, not down.” 4. Kyiv complained U.S. intelligence wasn’t specific enough to prepare for an invasion. Ukrainian officials complained that whenever the Americans shared their bleak outlook about an imminent invasion, they never fully provided Kyiv with the details of their intelligence. In November, Ukraine’s foreign minister and Zelensky’s chief of staff visited the State Department in Washington, where a senior U.S. official greeted them with a cup of coffee and a smile. “Guys, dig the trenches!” the official said. “When we smiled back,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recalled, the U.S. official said, “ ‘I’m serious. Start digging trenches. … You will be attacked. A large-scale attack, and you have to prepare for it.’ ” “We asked for details; there were none,” Kuleba said. 5. Zelensky suspected that some Western officials wanted him to flee. The Ukrainian leader worried that with his government out of the way and a Kremlin-backed regime installed, NATO powers would seek a negotiated settlement with Moscow over Ukraine. “The Western partners wanted to — I’m sure someone was really worried about what would happen to me and my family,” Zelensky said. “But someone probably wanted to just end things faster. I think the majority of people who called me — well, almost everyone — did not have faith that Ukraine can stand up to this and persevere.” Similarly, warning Ukrainians to prepare for war as some partners wanted him to, he said, would have weakened the country economically and made it easier for the Russians to capture. “Let people discuss in the future whether it was right or not right,” Zelensky recalled, “but I definitely know and intuitively — we discussed this every day at the National Security and Defense Council, et cetera — I had the feeling that [the Russians] wanted to prepare us for a soft surrender of the country. And that’s scary.”
美国的情报确实准确的判断了俄罗斯要开战，而且是重大战略打击“shock and awe”，而且情报界已经渗透到俄罗斯军方各个领域。 但也有判断失误或者和战争实际走向不一致的地方，比如： 美国的情报判断是：俄军从北边主攻，两侧包围袭击基辅，采取“闪电战”三到四天内攻占基辅。攻击将在适合坦克作战的冬季进行。特种部队将在开战第一时间暗杀泽连斯基并建立一个亲俄政府。
但也有判断失误或者和战争实际走向不一致的地方，比如：
美国的情报判断是：俄军从北边主攻，两侧包围袭击基辅，采取“闪电战”三到四天内攻占基辅。攻击将在适合坦克作战的冬季进行。特种部队将在开战第一时间暗杀泽连斯基并建立一个亲俄政府。
你去看看华盛顿邮报的文章再说吧。
给谁洗地？ 邮报通俄了？
被别人打的屁滚尿流，不得不撤，现在都权当没有了。
1月12日，伯恩斯在基辅会见了泽连斯基，并坦率的说出了美国的评估。情报显示，俄罗斯打算对基辅进行闪电袭击，并斩首中央政府。
美国还发现了入侵者战场规划的一个关键部分：俄罗斯将试图首先在首都郊区的霍斯托梅尔机场登陆，那里的跑道可以容纳大量俄罗斯运输部队和装载武器的车辆。对基辅的攻击将从那里开始。
在他们的谈话中，泽连斯基一度问，他或他的家人是否处于危险之中。伯恩斯说，泽连斯基需要认真对待他的个人安全问题。
泽连斯基的人身安全风险在增加。当时的情报显示，俄罗斯暗杀小组可能已经在基辅，等待启动。
但是泽连斯基拒绝了撤离政府的要求，他坚决表示不能让公众恐慌。他想，要这么干，迟早要失败。
泽连斯基回忆说：“你不能简单地对我说，‘听着，你应该现在就开始让人们做好准备，告诉他们需要存钱，需要储备食物。有些人想要我们这么说，我就不点名了。如果我们这么说，那么自去年10月以来，我每个月就会损失70亿美元，而在俄罗斯人发动攻击的那一刻，他们会在三天内把我们拿下……总的来说，我们内心的感觉是正确的，如果我们在入侵前在人民中制造混乱，俄罗斯人就会把我们吞掉。因为在混乱时期，人们会逃离这个国家。”
对泽连斯基来说，让人们留在这个国家的决定是击退入侵的关键，因为他们可以为保卫家园而战斗。
他说：“尽管听起来有些愤世嫉俗，但正是这些人阻止了一切。”
乌克兰官员仍然对美国人没有更多地分享他们的情报信源感到恼火。库列巴回忆说：“我们收到的信息，我认为是一份事实声明，但没有披露这些事实的来源或背景信息。”
但并非只有西方情报机构认为泽连斯基应该为全面入侵做准备。乌克兰自己的一些情报官员虽然仍对普京是否会发动袭击持怀疑态度，但他们已经做好了最坏的打算。乌克兰军事情报部门负责人基里洛·布达诺夫说，他在开战前三个月把档案从总部搬走，并准备了燃料和弹药储备。
1月19日，布林肯短暂访问基辅，与泽连斯基和库列巴进行了面对面的会晤，再次发出警告。令他失望的是，泽连斯基继续表示，任何公开动员的呼吁都将带来恐慌，以及资本外逃，这将把乌克兰本已摇摇欲坠的经济推向边缘。
布林肯在之前的谈话中，强调了确保泽连斯基及其政府的安全与完整的重要性，但他和其他几名美国高级官员否认了有关美国政府敦促他们撤离首都的报道。
布林肯后来回忆说：“我们对乌克兰说了两件事。无论你想做什么，我们都会支持你。我们建议你们看看……如何根据实际情况确保政府运作的连续性。”
这可能意味着躲在基辅，搬到乌克兰西部，或者搬到邻国波兰。
泽连斯基告诉布林肯他要留下来。他已经开始怀疑，一些西方官员想让他逃离，这样俄罗斯就可以建立一个傀儡政府，与北约大国通过谈判达成和解。
泽连斯基说：“西方盟友想——我肯定有人真的很担心我和我的家人会发生什么。但可能有人只是想速战速决。我认为，给我打电话的大多数人，几乎所有人，都不相信乌克兰能够坚持下去。”
同样，他说，如果像一些盟友希望的那样，警告乌克兰人做好战争准备，就会在经济上削弱乌克兰，让俄罗斯更容易占领乌克兰。这位乌克兰领导人回忆说：“让人们在未来讨论这件事是否正确吧，但是我绝对知道，而且凭直觉——我们每天在国家安全和国防委员会等讨论这个问题——我有一种感觉，(俄罗斯人)想让我们为这个国家乖乖投降做好准备。这很可怕。”
沉浸在自己的想象中，逼逼。
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/16/ukraine-road-to-war-takeaways/
1. The United States intelligence community penetrated multiple points of Russia’s political leadership, spying apparatus and military, and found Vladimir Putin preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the Oval Office in October 2021, President Biden’s top advisers presented him with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war plans for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies had used satellite imagery, intercepted communications and human sources to show that Putin was massing troops along Ukraine’s border with the aim of seizing the capital, Kyiv, and much of the country, leaving only a rump Ukrainian state in the west.
The United States had discovered Putin sharply increasing funding for military operations while leaving his pandemic response underfunded. “We assess that they plan to conduct a significant strategic attack on Ukraine from multiple directions simultaneously,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, told Biden. “Their version of ‘shock and awe.’ ”
2. Every decision on arming Ukraine was predicated on not giving Russia a reason to attack the United States and NATO. Biden was determined to rally NATO allies in the face of the impending invasion without provoking a direct conflict between Russia and the United States. Milley carried note cards in his briefcase encapsulating the U.S. interests and strategic objectives, as well as the high stakes. “Problem: ‘How do you underwrite and enforce the rules-based international order’ against a country with extraordinary nuclear capability, ‘without going to World War III?’ ”
Every decision on arming Ukraine was predicated on not giving Russia a reason to escalate, often to the frustration of Ukrainian officials, who pressed the United States to send increasing numbers of more powerful weapons, even as they publicly doubted that the invasion would happen. “I make no apologies for the fact that one of our objectives here is to avoid direct conflict with Russia,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.
3. Biden dispatched his top intelligence official to confront Putin with evidence of Russia’s war planning. Biden sent CIA Director William J. Burns to Moscow to deliver Putin a message: We know what you’re up to, and if you invade, there will be severe consequences. Burns delivered a personal letter from Biden, and he spoke to Putin by phone from an office in the Kremlin. The Russian leader had decamped to the resort city of Sochi during a coronavirus wave that placed Moscow under lockdown.
Putin, in a now familiar diatribe, complained about NATO expansion and the illegitimacy of Ukraine’s government. “He was very dismissive of President [Volodymyr] Zelensky as a political leader,” recalled Burns, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. Burns concluded that Putin had not made an irreversible decision to invade. But, he reported back to Biden after the phone call, “my level of concern has gone up, not down.”
4. Kyiv complained U.S. intelligence wasn’t specific enough to prepare for an invasion. Ukrainian officials complained that whenever the Americans shared their bleak outlook about an imminent invasion, they never fully provided Kyiv with the details of their intelligence. In November, Ukraine’s foreign minister and Zelensky’s chief of staff visited the State Department in Washington, where a senior U.S. official greeted them with a cup of coffee and a smile. “Guys, dig the trenches!” the official said.
“When we smiled back,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recalled, the U.S. official said, “ ‘I’m serious. Start digging trenches. … You will be attacked. A large-scale attack, and you have to prepare for it.’ ” “We asked for details; there were none,” Kuleba said.
5. Zelensky suspected that some Western officials wanted him to flee. The Ukrainian leader worried that with his government out of the way and a Kremlin-backed regime installed, NATO powers would seek a negotiated settlement with Moscow over Ukraine. “The Western partners wanted to — I’m sure someone was really worried about what would happen to me and my family,” Zelensky said. “But someone probably wanted to just end things faster. I think the majority of people who called me — well, almost everyone — did not have faith that Ukraine can stand up to this and persevere.”
Similarly, warning Ukrainians to prepare for war as some partners wanted him to, he said, would have weakened the country economically and made it easier for the Russians to capture. “Let people discuss in the future whether it was right or not right,” Zelensky recalled, “but I definitely know and intuitively — we discussed this every day at the National Security and Defense Council, et cetera — I had the feeling that [the Russians] wanted to prepare us for a soft surrender of the country. And that’s scary.”
普京的策略看着是要打消耗战，不紧不慢地消耗乌克兰和欧洲。
我觉得俄罗斯是走一步看一步吧， 但是打基辅的只要目的是想要东部的乌克兰分兵。
如果能打，他们肯定打，后来不打基辅的原因也是自己的兵力太少了，打不过要撤的。
俄军不想闪电战拿下基辅，那派空降部队占领基辅机场是去旅游么？ 装甲部队一条龙派到基辅是接受泽连斯基阅兵吗？
你要是这么洗，我也就不说啥了，反正我也不可能知道普京是怎么想的，楼主这洗地，也太过分了，都不顾俄军攻打基辅的事实了。
你说俄罗斯声东击西也好，说没有打下也好，真实情况就是美军预测俄罗斯是闪电战，三天拿下基辅，重点军事不在乌东。 但实际上俄罗斯没有在基辅，甚至基辅周围有什么大战役，都是袭扰为主。而在在乌东投下重兵，啃乌东的准备是长期的，一个城市一个城市的啃。这不是闪电战，也不可能是闪电战。
俄军开始想有枣没枣打三杆，试试运气。开始不久发现没有quick and easy way以后，就改成稳扎稳打以消耗乌克兰的军力为主的消耗战了。
可是他这种策略对自己本国和人民消耗也很大的。真的合算吗？
你不会认为百八十人的空降部队就是要占领基辅机场的吧？连重型装备都没多少
你看看邮报的分析再逼逼吧，也真没脾气了。
俄军大规模装甲部队纵深劈进，直逼首都，是俄军二战以来的传统重点突破的战法，被你一说成了小规模骚扰了。厉害！
大规模？ 你搞笑的么？
你自己去看看公路上排队的军车，坦克，你告诉我那是小规模骚扰？搞笑的是你自己。
当然是大规模了，长蛇阵车队，空降部队，甚至维护治安的警察都到了基辅了， 死了多少空降兵精英。 这是典型的闪电战手法， 和侵略捷克斯洛伐克一样的手法。
已经连基本事实都不顾了，整个劈进的装甲部队长达64公里，现在成骚扰了。
系统提示：若遇到视频无法播放请点击下方链接
https://www.youtube.com/embed/X4x-qceHgRE?showinfo=0
打消耗战乌克兰可不答应， 人现在有大杀器 ———- 烟头
显然鹅毛高估了自己，低估了乌克兰的抵抗意志，闪电战翻车，然后重新评估改变目标。
占领/控制机场是让鹅毛的装备能快速空运到基辅，空降兵控制机场你要重装干嘛，坦克对轰吗？
系统提示：若遇到视频无法播放请点击下方链接
https://www.youtube.com/embed/YblnYf8C918?showinfo=0
系统提示：若遇到视频无法播放请点击下方链接
https://www.youtube.com/embed/hJZ4fipGTDg?showinfo=0
系统提示：若遇到视频无法播放请点击下方链接
https://www.youtube.com/embed/Mbw8NuZTcEA?showinfo=0
后来战局的发展应该是出乎所有人的意料。于是各国都开始调整策略，欧美借着乌克兰给俄罗斯放血，中国借着俄罗斯给欧美放血。如果能打闪电战搞定，谁想打得这么劳民伤财啊。
还有在切尔诺贝利红树林里挖壕沟中了强辐射的俄罗斯士兵。哈哈哈，原来就是为了骚扰一下。代价太大了。得多蠢的将军干出来的事情。