CURRENCIES Dollar climbs to fresh 20-year high on yen, tests 2-year peak on euro PUBLISHED TUE, APR 19 202212:17 AM EDTUPDATED 39 MIN AGO SHARE
Hand holding a magnifying glass and looking into the Yen Banknotes. Zhang Peng | LightRocket | Getty Images The dollar rose on Tuesday to a fresh 20-year high against the Japanese yen and tested a two-year peak against the euro, supported by high U.S. Treasury yields. Ten-year U.S. inflation-linked bond yields are within touching distance of turning positive for the first time in two years. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, climbed past 101 for the first time in more than two years. It settled at 100.89. The dollar’s gains have been most striking against the yen, climbing to its highest level against the Japanese currency since May 2002. It was last up 1.24% at 128.55 yen. The dollar has risen 5.4% on the yen so far this month, which would be its second-biggest monthly percentage gain since 2016 after last month’s 5.8%. “Policy divergence between the Fed and low-yielding central banks (European Central Bank, Bank of Japan) continues to argue in favor of USD strength,” said Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING. Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy have continued to provide support to the dollar. U.S. inflation is “far too high”, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year. In the meantime, the BoJ has been intervening to keep the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds around 0% and no higher than 0.25%. Many investors are betting the yen has further to fall. The latest CFTC data for the week ending April 12 shows net short yen positions are the largest in three and a half years. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made the most explicit warning against the yen’s recent slump on Tuesday, saying the damage to the economy from a weakening currency at present is greater than the benefits from it.
Re: 干预monetary policies的动作有限，并且干预所传递的信息might just could be reciprocal to the market from it expected. 日本是个无资源的国家，比如说：造汽车几乎所有的原材料和能源都是靠进口，日元低，进口价格高，更不要说运输bottleneck和乌克兰战争了，日本社会大公司的官僚主义，使得它们对出口价格不敏感，出口卖价调整的不及时，中间的intangible currency losses，是巨大的，用车子举例子说就是出口价格要调整，在美国在欧美卖的车子parts价格需要上调，并且设定triggers to next adjustment而不是一个月一调。。但是很少有management teams take responsibilities on the decision mistakes, 因为这个社会的极度内部循环和纵向自闭系统，从上到下，从日银到私人几个人的小公司，covid是雪上加霜，更封闭，no investors would invest in Japan or Yen at this moment but only shorts, cause it could slide all the way down until technically signals say no more.
Re: 干预monetary policies的动作有限，并且干预所传递的信息might just could be reciprocal to the market from it expected. 日本是个无资源的国家，比如说：造汽车几乎所有的原材料和能源都是靠进口，日元低，进口价格高，更不要说运输bottleneck和乌克兰战争了，日本社会大公司的官僚主义，使得它们对出口价格不敏感，出口卖价调整的不及时，中间的intangible currency losses，是巨大的，用车子举例子说就是出口价格要调整，在美国在欧美卖的车子parts价格需要上调，并且设定triggers to next adjustment而不是一个月一调。。但是很少有management teams take responsibilities on the decision mistakes, 因为这个社会的极度内部循环和纵向自闭系统，从上到下，从日银到私人几个人的小公司，covid是雪上加霜，更封闭，no investors would invest in Japan or Yen at this moment but only shorts, cause it could slide all the way down until technically signals say no more. 心函 发表于 2022-04-19 12:09
说对了前半部，后半部是past history，doesn't have to exactly sync with the ongoing scenario. 日本的问题是社会性的，老年化，老人占据了公司的高层决策层，年轻的start-ups当然也有很多，但是总的来说，日本的公司税高的税收主要还是来自几个老牌大公司，这点和韩国很像，所以你说的“日本出口的产品换成美元价格也上涨”的pricing strategy更新并不及时，日本进口了，面对日本国内客户卖的所有东西，几乎都是采取薄利多销，利润很薄，日本规定本来退休年龄到60岁以后了必须再雇佣，没活干，在公司养老的员工很多，很薄的利润要养一大批人，所有每个人不管你做的咋样，拿到手的很可怜。。 日本需要的是国外涌进的热钱，像大家蜂拥到美国的热钱，但是它的岛国国民性和实际上的无能源，服务业一枝独秀和高福利高课税，很难有热钱涌进的壮观景象，发展fintech是最好的切入点，几乎不需要能源，人工费便宜，但是日本政府和央行完全实行老一套: 1). 发钱贴补，2). 增发国债，这两者都在2022年，不合时宜了哇
The dollar rose on Tuesday to a fresh 20-year high against the Japanese yen and tested a two-year peak against the euro, supported by high U.S. Treasury yields. Ten-year U.S. inflation-linked bond yields are within touching distance of turning positive for the first time in two years.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six other currencies, climbed past 101 for the first time in more than two years. It settled at 100.89.
The dollar’s gains have been most striking against the yen, climbing to its highest level against the Japanese currency since May 2002. It was last up 1.24% at 128.55 yen.
The dollar has risen 5.4% on the yen so far this month, which would be its second-biggest monthly percentage gain since 2016 after last month’s 5.8%.
“Policy divergence between the Fed and low-yielding central banks (European Central Bank, Bank of Japan) continues to argue in favor of USD strength,” said Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING.
Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy have continued to provide support to the dollar.
U.S. inflation is “far too high”, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5% by the end of the year.
In the meantime, the BoJ has been intervening to keep the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds around 0% and no higher than 0.25%.
Many investors are betting the yen has further to fall. The latest CFTC data for the week ending April 12 shows net short yen positions are the largest in three and a half years.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made the most explicit warning against the yen’s recent slump on Tuesday, saying the damage to the economy from a weakening currency at present is greater than the benefits from it.
事事真是难料，日元2008年金融危机时风起云涌牛气冲天，2012年usd/jpy到75感觉好像是另外一个时空的事 。。。
日元现在已完全失去了所谓避险货币的功能，股市跌的时候它照跌，股市涨的时候它跌得更凶。
一般概念上日本从上到下都是 prefer 日元走弱的，不过跌太猛了也受不了了， 日本资源全靠进口价格大涨，国民财富缩水，央行陷入尴尬两难可能要干预但是如没有美联储配合（也不会）， 干预也是没用的
另外喜欢黄金的要注意，日元和黄金有些时候是有一定连动关系的， 美元如果继续这么强，黄金可能不是好的投资
Re: 干预monetary policies的动作有限，并且干预所传递的信息might just could be reciprocal to the market from it expected. 日本是个无资源的国家，比如说：造汽车几乎所有的原材料和能源都是靠进口，日元低，进口价格高，更不要说运输bottleneck和乌克兰战争了，日本社会大公司的官僚主义，使得它们对出口价格不敏感，出口卖价调整的不及时，中间的intangible currency losses，是巨大的，用车子举例子说就是出口价格要调整，在美国在欧美卖的车子parts价格需要上调，并且设定triggers to next adjustment而不是一个月一调。。但是很少有management teams take responsibilities on the decision mistakes, 因为这个社会的极度内部循环和纵向自闭系统，从上到下，从日银到私人几个人的小公司，covid是雪上加霜，更封闭，no investors would invest in Japan or Yen at this moment but only shorts, cause it could slide all the way down until technically signals say no more.
前两天看香港新闻，很多人都开始买入日元，准备去旅游时用。太合算了
哦 这是个好主意
本来想让我妈换点以后去日本玩用，哎，想想上海不知道啥时候解封，还是算了
谁知道在美国如何做这个？我要买，以后去的时候可以花钱不那么肉痛。
主要还是能源产能不高受外因影响太大
这个要求会不会太高😄
认真问现在进出日本韩国旅游是好时候吗？疫情放开了吗
日本没有。一直在等。
日本这个国家很奇葩，没有资源和原材料，只能靠进口进行工业生产。进口原材料需要动用外汇储备，日元贬值意味着需要购买原材料的外汇更多了，外汇需要及时补充，所以有利于出口但不利于进口。俄乌战争导致原材料大涨，进口就需要更多的外汇，日元贬值实际上是抵消了这种双重损失，结果就是日本出口的产品换成美元价格也上涨。美联储持续加息导致热钱涌入美国，实在搞不懂目前是怎么割日本韭菜的…除非最终导致日本股市和优质资产下跌而美联储再一次放水进行收购
这些外围国家，被割韭菜是免不了的， 在美国倒下前（如果会的话），FED会出手把日本和欧洲先吸干
FED这几十年的加息减息，就像活塞的运动， 一泵一泵，每次耸动，都割一茬韭菜 英国加拿大这次很聪明，踩准了比美元早加息，躲过一刀
开放啦，4月6号还是7号开始的，外国人也可以去玩了。。真是，这么便宜的日元，开放让大家都来消费，公司来投资花钱，才是正经么
说对了前半部，后半部是past history，doesn't have to exactly sync with the ongoing scenario. 日本的问题是社会性的，老年化，老人占据了公司的高层决策层，年轻的start-ups当然也有很多，但是总的来说，日本的公司税高的税收主要还是来自几个老牌大公司，这点和韩国很像，所以你说的“日本出口的产品换成美元价格也上涨”的pricing strategy更新并不及时，日本进口了，面对日本国内客户卖的所有东西，几乎都是采取薄利多销，利润很薄，日本规定本来退休年龄到60岁以后了必须再雇佣，没活干，在公司养老的员工很多，很薄的利润要养一大批人，所有每个人不管你做的咋样，拿到手的很可怜。。
日本需要的是国外涌进的热钱，像大家蜂拥到美国的热钱，但是它的岛国国民性和实际上的无能源，服务业一枝独秀和高福利高课税，很难有热钱涌进的壮观景象，发展fintech是最好的切入点，几乎不需要能源，人工费便宜，但是日本政府和央行完全实行老一套: 1). 发钱贴补，2). 增发国债，这两者都在2022年，不合时宜了哇
我看embassy官网写的还是不接受旅游签证申请啊
boa可以换外汇，我以前换过euro，不需要有boa账户
我记得20年内到过141的。我当初换过这个比比例的。
许多人说还会到130甚至135，我要去日本逛吃逛耍!
看了一下，外国人是可以去了，但是观光现在还不行欸，等5月1号吧，这夏天旅游旺季，总不能一直关着吧？
日本还没有开放旅游。只开放了学生和公务签证
没开放
东亚都比较谨慎，也比较有实力，不像泰国旅游业实在熬不住了。
感觉霓虹国根本不需要外来人 他们自己国民就足够了 迪士尼 环球影城 大街小巷人流就没断过