Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital: 1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn''''t able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won''''t need a booster for omicron because they wouldn''''t be able to develop one before it''''s completely gone and we''''re all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we''''re all going to get it and there''''s no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn''''t quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you''''re immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice! Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.
Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn''''t able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won''''t need a booster for omicron because they wouldn''''t be able to develop one before it''''s completely gone and we''''re all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we''''re all going to get it and there''''s no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn''''t quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you''''re immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.
如果运动员因为阳性就不能参加奥运也太不公平了 很多人根本没症状的 准备那么久 难道最后拼的是谁阴性？
可是没症状也会传染给别人啊，对被传染上的不公平，更别说这些人还可能带回自己国家
你看上面写的检测敏感性不够，假阴性肯定也有，到时候一传传一片
加拿大人民很喜欢看冬奥啊。
那个说的是rapid Test，PCR还是很可靠的
也许真的是这样打算的
现在还有哪个国家没有吗？
加拿大那点人口, 忽略不计
是挺郁闷的，但如果你是运动员愿意和阳性的一起比赛吗？你是志愿者愿意在会场服务吗？
这个还真是个问题。
冬奥会以欧美运动员为主， 到时候一测20%的阳性， 80%的密接， 结果可能就是看运气。
那谷爱凌躺赢的机会很大呀！
最后凭绿码进场，然后实现首届冬奥大满贯？
路上都容易感染上 如果路上感染咋办 白跑一趟了？