回复 1楼有希望就对了的帖子 CNN: Dr. Anthony Fauci on Omicron: “Thus far, though it's too early to really make any definitive statements about it, it does not look like there's a great degree of severity to it.”
现在说这个太早,因为目前查出来Omicron的绝大多数都是已经感染过的或者打过疫苗的,你不知道症状变轻了到底是因为什么 从目前的已知信息,包括挪威这个1传100的例子来看,情况恐怕非常糟糕。疫苗和自然感染都不防传染的话那就是谁都躲不过,2020年3月重来一遍,除非严重程度能下降一个数量级(which is highly unlikely),不然大范围的lockdown和更多的严格措施是很难避免的
OSLO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - At least 13 people in Oslo have been infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus following a corporate Christmas party described as a "super spreader event", and their numbers could rise to over 60 cases, authorities said on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/
A corporate Christmas party turned into the biggest Omicron 'super spreader event' outside South Africa, with up to 60 people infected https://www.businessinsider.com/christmas-party-norway-turned-omicron-super-spreader-event-2021-12?amp
OSLO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - At least 13 people in Oslo have been infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus following a corporate Christmas party described as a "super spreader event", and their numbers could rise to over 60 cases, authorities said on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/ 落地无声 发表于 2021-12-05 10:00
这是你的链接翻译成英语: Just over 70 of those infected attended the Christmas table of the solar energy company Scatec, while the rest were guests elsewhere at the nightclub. At least 13 of the infected have had the omicron variant of the coronavirus confirmed, while screening of the samples shows that it is probably about half.
这是你的链接翻译成英语: Just over 70 of those infected attended the Christmas table of the solar energy company Scatec, while the rest were guests elsewhere at the nightclub. At least 13 of the infected have had the omicron variant of the coronavirus confirmed, while screening of the samples shows that it is probably about half. ytwk1 发表于 2021-12-05 10:31
这个是我能查到最新的 Covid-19: Norway reports 50 Omicron cases linked to company party Jan M Olsen 15:15, Dec 05 2021 At least 50 people in and around Norway's capital have been infected with the Omicron coronavirus variant, and the cases are connected to a Norwegian company’s Christmas party in an Oslo restaurant, officials said Thursday. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health said that those affected live in Oslo and surrounding municipalities, and “the infection detection team in Oslo has contacted the municipalities concerned to start infection detection.” The government agency said that there was “a high vaccination coverage” in the group, adding that overall “more than 50 cases” have been recorded in Norway. The country's first two Omicron cases were announced Monday. “More cases are expected. Effective tracing is being done to limit transmission routes and prevent major outbreaks,” the Oslo Municipality said in a statement. https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300470777/covid19-norway-reports-50-omicron-cases-linked-to-company-party
我看了英文版,到目前为止是120多人确诊。其中70个是参加那个公司的party,剩下的50个是当时在nightclub玩的不相干的客人。这传染性真够强的 “More than 120 people have now been confirmed infected with corona in connection with the outbreak at the Louise restaurant at Aker Brygge in Oslo, confirms Frogner''''s assistant district doctor Tine Ravlo to VG. … Just over 70 of those infected attended the Christmas table of the solar energy company Scatec, while the rest were guests elsewhere at the nightclub. At least 13 of the infected have had the omicron variant of the coronavirus confirmed, while screening of the samples shows that it is probably about half”
RBM变化巨大,但是和ACE2的结合能力仍旧很强,和致病性最相关的furin酶切位点上面比delta还多了一个突变,都提示virulence方面的不确定性非常大。我觉得在有比较严格的case control study之前,不要过早地拿着anecdotal data下结论。 致命性强的病毒传染力弱那是针对那种死亡率超高,一得病立马失去行动能力的病毒来说的,一个病毒的死亡率是千分之一还是百分之一对人类社会的影响是完全不同的,但是对病毒来说都差不多。
这里有一些o变种的住院信息,看上去还不错,希望能保持啊 https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features There were only 2 patients in the COVID ICU in the last 14 days, neither of whom had a primary diagnosis of COVID pneumonia. Sixty-three patients were admitted to high care, but our anecdotal information is that the majority of high care admissions were for a diagnosis other than COVID. A significant early finding in this analysis is the much shorter average length of stay of 2.8 days for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to the COVID wards over the last two weeks compared to an average length of stay of 8.5 days for the past 18 months. The NICD reports a similar shorter length of stay for all hospitals in Tshwane in its weekly report. It is also less than the Gauteng or National average length of stay reported by the NICD in previous waves. In summary, the first impression on examination of the 166 patients admitted since the Omicron variant made an appearance, together with the snapshot of the clinical profile of 42 patients currently in the COVID wards at the SBAH/TDH complex, is that the majority of hospital admissions are for diagnoses unrelated to COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding in these patients and is largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients requiring admission to the hospital.
本地12月5日,已经超过100人阳性
o已经变异到提交子毒株了Omicron+S:R346K, 占了现在全部Omicron的10%左右, 估算起源时间是11月11日到14日左右。
南非直接从日增2000飙到16000多例了。现在南非是夏天。
有兴趣的同学可以自行搜索资讯。https://m.huaren.us/showtopic.html?topicid=2755220
🔥 最新回帖
这个女人是欧盟主席,强推疫苗。。。
请问你有空科普细胞免疫吗? https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Tf4y1G7Nk?share_source=copy_web 5:27开始谈到T细胞。但这里只提到两个用途:一、增强巨噬细胞。二、找正确的B细胞。 只看这两点,看不出细胞免疫的重要性。
三针打完再突破的case目前已经很多了。 疫苗防传染的有效率本来其实就没多少人指望。 flu vaccine差不多。年年打,年年都可能得。 还是相信能降低重症率和死亡率的。
有啊,很多打过第三针还被O感染的例子,比如美国第二例
人跟人的差别不仅仅是打没打疫苗。。。
🛋️ 沙发板凳
如果是新的血清型,那么现有疫苗无效,但是世界各国理论上还是可以锁国清零。如果不是新的,那么疫苗有效但是R0奇高,隔离清零已不可能。
何况还有老鼠在传播。
大家扣紧安全带,熬过这个冬天,你周围的人就都有抗体了
第三针看来没啥用 等新疫苗吧
所以我暂时不考虑打第三针,等更多数据出来。
报纸到目前为止说还都是轻症,但是毕竟这公司聚餐的本来就没有老人家。。。
都是轻症,明显是疫苗起作用了
早就有了。ys列的医生。3针辉瑞,omicron,还传染了同事
有些推booster的说法是现在还是Delta主导,这个说得过。 如果免疫逃逸厉害而R0不是恐怖地高,戴口罩,保持社交距离熬吧。 圣诞过后不知会如何。。。
再观望一下😂
😱免疫力低下的高危人群还是继续家里蹲吧
LOL, 挪威这120人全是完全接种的,而且出示疫苗护照才能参加的。
打不打加强针,我还在纠结 我县是还在D肆虐的时期,又开始继续攀高峰 我怀疑目前是D和O争地盘了
CNN: Dr. Anthony Fauci on Omicron: “Thus far, though it's too early to really make any definitive statements about it, it does not look like there's a great degree of severity to it.”
有没打疫苗重症了的吗?
现在说这个太早,因为目前查出来Omicron的绝大多数都是已经感染过的或者打过疫苗的,你不知道症状变轻了到底是因为什么
从目前的已知信息,包括挪威这个1传100的例子来看,情况恐怕非常糟糕。疫苗和自然感染都不防传染的话那就是谁都躲不过,2020年3月重来一遍,除非严重程度能下降一个数量级(which is highly unlikely),不然大范围的lockdown和更多的严格措施是很难避免的
一旦o开始了,好像d会迅速被踩没
加州德州还在D后消停了一阵子 我这里是无缝连接啊,痛苦
这个还真不一定,感染过delta的马上就可以再感染omicron,反过来我很怀疑也是成立的
得过DeltaPlus再得Omicron,得过Omicron的再得Delta Pro Max (后半句是猜的)。
如果这个担忧存在的话,那么打BOOSTER也就有必要了 至少防一个先 唉
楼主能不能澄清一下并提供source链接:
到底这120参加party的人中有多少人确诊感染了omicron?你说的这超过100人是挪威感染omicron的总数还是参加party120人里感染omicron的总数>100?
应该不止一个super spreader,否则R0 和 Rt要逆天啊。
还要多久会有现有疫苗到底对omicron有没有效的权威定论出来呢?我们这里学校和儿医普遍的说法是因为目前感染omicron的打过疫苗的都是轻症,所以说明疫苗有效,所以强推5-11岁疫苗和大人booster(目前只强制11岁以上疫苗),说只要小孩都打疫苗大人打booster,不管病毒怎么演变,学校再也不会改网课了
你去搜一下就看到了, BloombergNews。参加聚会的120个人中的100个阳性,但不是所有人都测序了。
OSLO, Dec 3 (Reuters) - At least 13 people in Oslo have been infected with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus following a corporate Christmas party described as a "super spreader event", and their numbers could rise to over 60 cases, authorities said on Friday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/omicron-outbreak-norway-christmas-party-is-biggest-outside-s-africa-authorities-2021-12-03/
这是老新闻了,看昨天的更新,已经100人阳性了,BloombergNews。
要不你贴个新闻链接?
星期天更新,已经过120了。。。 https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/v586gV/over-120-coronasmittet-etter-julebord-paa-aker-brygge
体外实验最多再有1-2个星期就能看到吧,两针应该会差的很离谱,打过三针的估计能看到一点中和效果
减少重症的效果到底怎么样只能看实战数据了,不过说实话现在又没打过疫苗又没被感染过的人已经很少了,对照组不那么容易找
一般对于年轻人来说,只要感染过或者打过疫苗,T细胞还能很快识别病毒,重症的概率就不是很大。老年人免疫系统反应慢,不好说。现有的单抗大部分对Omicron也是没有用的,口服药又正好来不及推广开,对于欧美这样老龄化厉害的国家,omicron很可能一下子就能把医疗系统击穿,最后还要靠lockdown
如果不测序怎么确认这100人都是omicron?
Bloomberg只说了“May Surge to 100”,并说到周五为止参加party的人中13人确诊,其它主流媒体目前为止没一家报100人。
上升这么快。
70多人是参加公司聚会的,其他50人是当天在同一家店的其他客人。
13个人是被测序出Omicron。
截至今天,阳性里有70多人是参加公司聚会的(共120多人),其他50多人是当天在同一家店的其他客人。
现在强制疫苗消灭了对照组,怎么说怎么有理。 如果都是轻症,就是疫苗有用了。 如果有重症,那么不打疫苗肯定已经死了。 总有一个说法显得疫苗有用。
总共120多人就120确诊了?我的天啊
南非打的不多,可以作为对照组。医院没爆就是没事
那到底这120人中有几个确诊了是omicron?13人还是>100人?
南非中位年龄27.6岁
印度人口应该也很年轻, 怎么当初那么惨烈
南非没有被delta感染过的人已经不是很多了,而且他们的delta wave就发生在几个月以前,感染后形成的T细胞基本上都还活着呢
这是你的链接翻译成英语:
Just over 70 of those infected attended the Christmas table of the solar energy company Scatec, while the rest were guests elsewhere at the nightclub. At least 13 of the infected have had the omicron variant of the coronavirus confirmed, while screening of the samples shows that it is probably about half.
如果都是轻症的话为什么要lockdown?以前也没有因为流感就lockdown了吧?我觉得关键是重症率,死亡率,比感染率更重要。
明明疫苗无用
没打疫苗的,几乎没人感染新病毒,被感染了也一样是轻症
问题就在这里,我觉得“都是轻症”这个说法不对,现在的病例不能代表整个population,bias太厉害
我查了一遍也没看到那家确认了100多人阳性的。 那个挪威文的网站我没看,因为还躺在床上刷手机
就你这个,没有任何重症,就哭喊着一定要封锁
对啊,我并没有说这120个已经确定是omikron啊。。。只是确诊新官阳性啊,是不是omikron13个确诊是,剩下的待定呢。。。
https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300470777/covid19-norway-reports-50-omicron-cases-linked-to-company-party
请问现在这个o 最早出现是否上月?最早报道与最早出现不是同一回事,往往有个延迟时段,中国的情况就是个典型例子。
现在也不知道南非有多惨烈啊 印度从有delta到爆发到大量死人用了多久?
你才知道? 太后知后觉点了吧
我没说你说了120已经确定o变种,只是后面有别人误解了我才把翻成英文的内容贴出来。
主流媒体的目的是推广破疫苗, 他们怎么会把南非的信息爆出来做对比组?
11月30号就六十个人阳性了。就算这几天没有新增的超过50%的传播率还不可怕?
现在只是多了一些对旅行和聚集的限制,并没有哪里封锁了啊
没说不可怕,但是看着lz标题进来的,当然也希望看到有考证的数据。
又来造谣了,如果你说的不打疫苗几乎没人感染是真的那为什么南非官方公布说绝大多数感染的和住院的都是没打疫苗的?
这跟得一次也差不多了吧
不是一共就120人吗?
聚集也没限制啊!纽约的新年时代广场迎新聚会会不会让纽约再来一次去年三四月的情形?
疫苗是用来传播病毒的?反正越变异越弱,怕啥
病毒是政治需要。Delta出现为了推第一针。omiga 出现为了推第三针和推儿童疫苗
为啥我觉得你是来为实行下一个lockdown打前站,舆论造势的。
我看了英文版,到目前为止是120多人确诊。其中70个是参加那个公司的party,剩下的50个是当时在nightclub玩的不相干的客人。这传染性真够强的
“More than 120 people have now been confirmed infected with corona in connection with the outbreak at the Louise restaurant at Aker Brygge in Oslo, confirms Frogner''''s assistant district doctor Tine Ravlo to VG. … Just over 70 of those infected attended the Christmas table of the solar energy company Scatec, while the rest were guests elsewhere at the nightclub. At least 13 of the infected have had the omicron variant of the coronavirus confirmed, while screening of the samples shows that it is probably about half”
是,我也看到了,不写仔细就成了小误会,没事
我个人猜美国只有当医院没法应付病人死的人太多时才会lockdown,达到的效果只是flatten the curve。
你太恶心了。。。
有可能可以同时感染,但是south africa好像delta一下子就比例降低了,也有可能是o太多了
倒也不必, delta还存在着呢。过去一年普及疫苗不是大大降低了感染率和入院率吗?
不好说,感染的都是打过疫苗或者近期得过新冠的。要看没打过疫苗,没有抗体的人什么反应才能有结论。
南非打疫苗的比例不是很低吗?怎么能推断疫苗有效呢?
highly unlikely 是哪里来的? 病毒一边传染性更强 一边致命性更强 这是不符合传染病学的基本理论的
看南非住院人中完成接种的人的比例。11月1日南非完成接种率20%左右,11月底87%住院的感染o变种的人是未接种的。另外接种率低的国家绝大多数打疫苗的都是高龄和有基础病的,南非接种的人只有13%住院说明疫苗对防o变种重症可能还是有效的。还有就是非洲以外接种率高的国家感染o变种的人中现在还没有怎么听到有住院的。
RBM变化巨大,但是和ACE2的结合能力仍旧很强,和致病性最相关的furin酶切位点上面比delta还多了一个突变,都提示virulence方面的不确定性非常大。我觉得在有比较严格的case control study之前,不要过早地拿着anecdotal data下结论。
致命性强的病毒传染力弱那是针对那种死亡率超高,一得病立马失去行动能力的病毒来说的,一个病毒的死亡率是千分之一还是百分之一对人类社会的影响是完全不同的,但是对病毒来说都差不多。
在南非感染o变种的人中绝大多数是没打疫苗的
是的,就算抗体的中和作用大打折扣了,疫苗/自然感染带来的T细胞免疫对预防重症肯定是有用的
不过这里面一个很大的不确定因素就是高龄人群,年龄上去以后整个B/T细胞的产生和成熟,抗原识别呈递的速度,免疫记忆被激活的速度,还有抗体的结合能力都会严重下降,体内如果没有足够的circulating antibody,重症的可能性是不小的。免疫系统并不是到八九十岁才开始衰退的,说句不是很好听的话,生育年龄过后更强的免疫系统并没有什么进化优势。
在看到比较严格的case control study证实新变种的死亡率更低之前,我对这波omicron疫情不是很乐观。。。
前两天听TWiV,意见也差不多。他们过两周会专门讲booster,我等等再打第三针。这年头要是只看主流媒体,日子都要没法过了。
There were only 2 patients in the COVID ICU in the last 14 days, neither of whom had a primary diagnosis of COVID pneumonia. Sixty-three patients were admitted to high care, but our anecdotal information is that the majority of high care admissions were for a diagnosis other than COVID.
A significant early finding in this analysis is the much shorter average length of stay of 2.8 days for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients admitted to the COVID wards over the last two weeks compared to an average length of stay of 8.5 days for the past 18 months. The NICD reports a similar shorter length of stay for all hospitals in Tshwane in its weekly report. It is also less than the Gauteng or National average length of stay reported by the NICD in previous waves.
In summary, the first impression on examination of the 166 patients admitted since the Omicron variant made an appearance, together with the snapshot of the clinical profile of 42 patients currently in the COVID wards at the SBAH/TDH complex, is that the majority of hospital admissions are for diagnoses unrelated to COVID-19. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding in these patients and is largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients requiring admission to the hospital.
谢谢小浣熊mm!看起来是时候要读点基础病毒免疫学之类的书了。我家为了booster和小娃的疫苗老吵架,队友看新闻很恐慌,我看华人听TWiV,觉得还要再等等看data。唉,希望快点过去吧。
这种国家明显是医疗条件好的人接种,医疗条件差的人没接种啊。穷人,居住条件差的人,没打疫苗感染率也只高了一点点,能说明疫苗在防感染上有用?
这个o都讨论了好几天了 疫苗无效 你还非要去打boost 这能怪谁
你们这些脑回路清奇的阴谋论者能不能解释一下病毒到底满足什么政治需要?让大家打疫苗,lockdown,都会导致不满流失选票,这种“需要”有什么政治好处?